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The Wild Eric

2022 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

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13 hours ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

2022-03-market-prediction.png

 

Not exactly great predictions, but pretty interesting that they are willing to predict nearly pre-pandemic numbers for JW3, an increase of at least 50+ million (closer to 65 id say) over jw 2 even if we "correct" for pandemic-era inflation (using some rough estimates on of course)

 

 

That's the most ridiculous thing I've ever seen! Are those box office predictions of (except JW) the first week's predictions?

 

Top 10 for the year:

1. Avatar 2: $625 million

2. Doctor Strange 2: $520 million

3. Jurassic World Dominion: $485 million

4. Thor Love and Thunder $410 million

5. The Batman $390 million

6. Lightyear $310 million

7. Black Adam $220 million

8. Minions: Rise of Gru $210 million

9. Strange World $185 million

10. Top Gun 2 $180 million

 

*** If The Marvels is released in November, it will be nestled between The Batman and Lightyear with around $375 million. Scratch Black Panther 2 from that list. It's NOT coming out this year.

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On 3/17/2022 at 5:10 PM, Villain Legion said:

Some quick hits in release order:

Morbius 150

Sonic 200

Dumbledore 100

DS2 480

JW3 620

Lightyear 300

Thor 520

Spiderverse 300

Black Adam 180

BP2 666M because luciferase

Shazam2 180

Avatar 2 450

Morbius 170

Sonic 220

DS2 440

JW3 610

Lightyear 540

Thor 420

Spiderverse 230

Black Adam 180

BP2 700M

Shazam2 200

Avatar 2 800

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14 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Morbius 170

Sonic 220

DS2 440

JW3 610

Lightyear 540

Thor 420

Spiderverse 230

Black Adam 180

BP2 700M

Shazam2 200

Avatar 2 800

Morbius - 150m

Sonic 2 - 150m

Dumbledore - 85m

Strange 2 - 450m

Dominion - 535m

Lightyear (if theatrically released) - 255m

Th4r - 465m

SpiderVerse - 175m

Black Adam - 210m

Wakanda - 625m

Shazam - 185m

Avatar 2 - 730m

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I put this chart together back in January:

x808vob.png

In 2021
July was 47% of the 2012-2019 average
Aug was 48%
Sep 59%
Oct 89%
Nov 52%
Dec 82%

 

Jan 2022 was 42.5% of the previous avg
Feb was 47.8%
March will end up being about 65%.
April releases look like they'll add up to somewhere in the 400-500 range, plus holdovers pulling around 150-200-ish, will put it at 67-85% for the month as a whole which is pretty good. Jan-April will end up just under 60% of the avg.

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1 hour ago, Noiret Jak said:

 

Lol.

Is it possible to be serious for a moment? :D

I mean I think WW it’ll do okay but like domestic, yes I do think it’s probably going to fall. Looking at past sequels were reception to a predecessor was bad, the sequel tends to drop regardless on if the score improves. It’s a pretty basic box office concept. Do you not get that? Just because you like a movie, and other people got low predictions doesn’t mean it’s unfounded. It’s a bit harsh sure but like it’s not left field. 100m seems probable, maybe like 120m but I think sub 100m wouldn’t be a surprise either.

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12 minutes ago, YourMother said:

I mean I think WW it’ll do okay but like domestic, yes I do think it’s probably going to fall. Looking at past sequels were reception to a predecessor was bad, the sequel tends to drop regardless on if the score improves. It’s a pretty basic box office concept. Do you not get that? Just because you like a movie, and other people got low predictions doesn’t mean it’s unfounded. It’s a bit harsh sure but like it’s not left field. 100m seems probable, maybe like 120m but I think sub 100m wouldn’t be a surprise either.

 

I totally get it, and I don't expect Secrets Of Dumbledore to make $200M in the US, but 85 seems way too low and that's why I answered you, that's all.
After the fact that Morbius is not as terrible a competitor as it seemed can also be an asset for Secrets Of Dumbledore.
I bet on a 110/145M$ US.

Edited by Noiret Jak
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Biggest opening weekends and totals for April

 

Morbius - $45m - $115m

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 - $57m - $175m

Fantastic Beasts 3 - $48m - $120m

Ambulance $15 - $45m

The Bad Guys $20 - $75m

Northam $8m - $22m

 

May 

Doctor Strange 2 $180m - $460m

Top Gun 2 $65 - $170m

Firestarter $20 - $55m

Men $10 - $30m

Bob's Burgers $15 - $40m

Downton Abbey 2 $18m - $50m

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16 minutes ago, Juby said:

2022-04-market-prediction.png

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