2022 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

[stripe]

Let's guess about September, trying to be more conservative. Last year, cumulative gross was 367M thanks to Shang Chi. It will be very difficult to reach that number.

 

September Openers, around 160M

Honk for Jesus: 10-15M

NWH Fun Stuff: 15-20M (tracking suggests a moderately succesful LD opening, I think)

Barbarian: 30-35M 

Clerks III: 5M

Woman King: 35-45M

Avatar: 20M

Don't Worry Darling: 15M

Bros: 10M

Smile: 5M

 

Holdovers, around 140M

Invitation: 10M

BT: 15M

Beast: 15M

TGM: 20M

Super Pets: 15M

Rest: 50-60M

 

Around 300M unless Barbarian or Woman King overperform. Also, the rerelease of Avatar might surprise

[Pinacolada]

2 hours ago, stripe said:

Let's guess about September, trying to be more conservative. Last year, cumulative gross was 367M thanks to Shang Chi. It will be very difficult to reach that number.

 

September Openers, around 160M

Honk for Jesus: 10-15M

NWH Fun Stuff: 15-20M (tracking suggests a moderately succesful LD opening, I think)

Barbarian: 30-35M 

Clerks III: 5M

Woman King: 35-45M

Avatar: 20M

Don't Worry Darling: 15M

Bros: 10M

Smile: 5M

 

Holdovers, around 140M

Invitation: 10M

BT: 15M

Beast: 15M

TGM: 20M

Super Pets: 15M

Rest: 50-60M

 

Around 300M unless Barbarian or Woman King overperform. Also, the rerelease of Avatar might surprise

I think Smile will breakout. Bros will do better than that too.

[stripe]

15 hours ago, Pinacolada said:

I think Smile will breakout. Bros will do better than that too.

 

That numbers are just their OD, aka September 30th gross 😉

[MattW]

I was looking at september just a couple days ago and came up with a similar 275-300 total. Lower end puts it almost as bad as Jan-Feb were when comparing to pre-pandemic monthly averages. Real feast or famine kind of market.

 

Edit Sept 7:

300-325 Sept

475-575 Oct

Somewhere around 600 for Nov

 

Oct 14 edit:

Oct ~480

Nov 700-750

Edited October 14, 2022 by MattW

[stripe]

On 8/29/2022 at 3:46 PM, stripe said:

Let's guess about September, trying to be more conservative. Last year, cumulative gross was 367M thanks to Shang Chi. It will be very difficult to reach that number.

 

September Openers, around 160M

Honk for Jesus: 10-15M

NWH Fun Stuff: 15-20M (tracking suggests a moderately succesful LD opening, I think)

Barbarian: 30-35M 

Clerks III: 5M

Woman King: 35-45M

Avatar: 20M

Don't Worry Darling: 15M

Bros: 10M

Smile: 5M

 

Holdovers, around 140M

Invitation: 10M

BT: 15M

Beast: 15M

TGM: 20M

Super Pets: 15M

Rest: 50-60M

 

Around 300M unless Barbarian or Woman King overperform. Also, the rerelease of Avatar might surprise

 

So in the end, I was close with that 300M. September will gross around 310-320M, not far away of last year's 367M.

I overpredicted a few (LOL at Honk for Jesus). Bros will also come really short of that 10M OD.
Didn't predict openings of late wide openings such as Pearl, See How they run, Brahmastra, Jaws or Lifemark, and those definitely helped.

Glad that DWD and TWK did better than expected, specially the former.
 

[stripe]

Let’s do predictions for October. Last year the cumulative gross was 623M thanks to Venom 2, NTTD, HK, Dune and Addams Family 2 solid openings. For the second consecutive month, it will be very difficult to match last year’s numbers.

 

October openings (around 300-330M)

Amsterdam: 20-30M (the hardest to predict)

Lyle, Lyle Crocodile: 40M

Halloween Ends: 80-90M

Black Adam: 110-120M

Ticket to Paradise: 35M

Prey for the Devil: 15M

 

There’s potential breakout for films such as Lyle or Ticket to Paradise. Let’s see also if TÁR, Till or Triangle of Sadness expand after their limited openings.

 

Holdovers (around 180M)

TWK: 35M

Smile: 40-50M

Bros: 30M

DWD: 20M

Avatar: 15M

Barbarian: 10M

Rest: 20M

 

So, 500M is the goal for October 2022

[Grebacio]

October openings (around 350M)

Amsterdam: 28M

Lyle, Lyle Crocodile: 54M

Halloween Ends: 83M

Black Adam: 146M

Ticket to Paradise: 32M

Prey for the Devil: 12M

 

 

Holdovers (around 190M )

TWK: 37M

Smile: 62M

Bros: 27M

DWD: 21M

Avatar: 12M

Barbarian: 11M
Rest: 20

 

[stripe]

On 9/29/2022 at 12:33 PM, stripe said:

Let’s do predictions for October. Last year the cumulative gross was 623M thanks to Venom 2, NTTD, HK, Dune and Addams Family 2 solid openings. For the second consecutive month, it will be very difficult to match last year’s numbers.

 

October openings (around 300-330M)

Amsterdam: 20-30M (the hardest to predict) - 14.6M

Lyle, Lyle Crocodile: 40M - 32.7M

Halloween Ends: 80-90M - 61.4M

Black Adam: 110-120M - 112.9M

Ticket to Paradise: 35M - 34.6M

Prey for the Devil: 15M - 8.2M

 

There’s potential breakout for films such as Lyle or Ticket to Paradise. Let’s see also if TÁR, Till or Triangle of Sadness expand after their limited openings.

 

Holdovers (around 180M)

TWK: 35M - 23.2M

Smile: 40-50M - 85.6M

Bros: 30M - 9.8M

DWD: 20M - 17M

Avatar: 15M - 9.6M

Barbarian: 10M - 9.5M

 

Rest: 20M -45M

 

So, 500M is the goal for October 2022

 

October fell 32M short of 500M. Bolded the final grosses. I overpredicted some of the films, especially Halloween and Bros

[Juby]

On 7/12/2022 at 12:05 PM, Juby said:

Guess who's back?!

 

https://www.the-numbers.com/news/252230830-2022-market-prediction-Maverick-gives-theatrical-business-a-giant-lift

 

 

 

My updated counter-prediction:

 

Top Gun: Maverick $670m (+$45m) 
Avatar: The Way of Water $620m (Dec 16th - Jan 1st) 
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $450m
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness $412m (-$3m)
Jurassic World: Dominion $375m (-$5m)
The Batman $369.3m

Thor: Love and Thunder $360m (-$90m)
Minions: The Rise of Gru $330m (+$120m)
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 $190.9m

 

No other +$190m grosser this year.

 

 

My final prediction for Top10-2022:

 

Top Gun: Maverick $717m (+$47m) 
Avatar: The Way of Water $620m (Dec 16th - Jan 1st) 
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $450m
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness $411.3m (-$0.7m)
Jurassic World: Dominion $376m (+$1m)
Minions: The Rise of Gru $370m (+$40m)
The Batman $369.3m
Thor: Love and Thunder $343.3m (-$16.7m)
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 $190.9m
Elvis $151m

 

Edited November 2, 2022 by Juby

[stripe]

November 2022.

Last year, cumulative gross was 523M, with Eternals and Ghostbusters leading that month. This year's November it will for sure cross that mark. Let's guess grosses.

 

November openings (around 580-620M)

One Piece: 20M

Armageddon Time: 5M

Black Panther: 450-500M (or beyond that if it's beloved)

The Menu: 25M

She Said: 15M

Devotion: 15M

Strange World: 25-30M

Fabelmans: 20-25M

Bones and All: 5-10M

 

Many prestige adult movies looking to deliver good numbers, but after pandemy it's been hard for this kind of movies to be succesful. I have a feeling one of them will find an audience and deliver a solid gross, better than the numbers I have predicted.

 

Holdovers (around 120-130M)

Black Adam: 50-55M

Ticket to Paradise: 30-35M

Prey for the Devil: 10M

Smile: 10M

Till: 10M

Lyle, Lyle Crocodile: 5M

Halloween Ends: 5M

 

Rest: 25-30M

 

So around 750M for November, IMHO, with a chance of 800M.

[filmlover]

2 hours ago, stripe said:

November 2022.

Last year, cumulative gross was 523M, with Eternals and Ghostbusters leading that month. This year's November it will for sure cross that mark. Let's guess grosses.

 

November openings (around 580-620M)

One Piece: 20M

Armageddon Time: 5M

Black Panther: 450-500M (or beyond that if it's beloved)

The Menu: 25M

She Said: 15M

Devotion: 15M

Strange World: 25-30M

Fabelmans: 20-25M

Bones and All: 5-10M

 

Many prestige adult movies looking to deliver good numbers, but after pandemy it's been hard for this kind of movies to be succesful. I have a feeling one of them will find an audience and deliver a solid gross, better than the numbers I have predicted.

All of these numbers would be insane overperformances given what's currently expected of them (Armageddon Time has already fizzled in limited release).

 

The Biggest Movies Coming to Theaters in November 2022 - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)

 

Edit: I misread, thought these were actual opening predictions, nevermind lol.

Edited November 2, 2022 by filmlover

[stripe]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

All of these numbers would be insane overperformances given what's currently expected of them (Armageddon Time has already fizzled in limited release).

 

The Biggest Movies Coming to Theaters in November 2022 - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)

 

Edit: I misread, thought these were actual opening predictions, nevermind lol.

 

LOL imagine if BPWF would manage to open to 400M+

[Juby]

 

https://www.the-numbers.com/news/252940830-2022-23-market-prediction-Smile-Ticket-to-Paradise-and-Black-Panther-help-boost-end-of-year-forecast

[poweranimals]

9 hours ago, Juby said:

 

https://www.the-numbers.com/news/252940830-2022-23-market-prediction-Smile-Ticket-to-Paradise-and-Black-Panther-help-boost-end-of-year-forecast

Their Avatar prediction 😂

[Verrows]

1 minute ago, poweranimals said:

Their Avatar prediction 😂

Remember this is just for the calendar year.

[poweranimals]

1 minute ago, Verrows said:

Remember this is just for the calendar year.

It says 2022/23 though.

[Verrows]

10 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

It says 2022/23 though.

Oh...right.

 

What the hell?? I mean, unless they know something we don't. It was weird that James Cameron came out with those comments about ending the Avatar story after 3 if the audience has checked out. 

[jedijake]

Av2 will be quite a bit above that number by its second week for sure.

[Legion Again]

It literally says (2022gross) you guys, c'mon now

 

It a bit low but not completely out of pocket

[stripe]

On 11/2/2022 at 12:33 PM, stripe said:

November 2022.

Last year, cumulative gross was 523M, with Eternals and Ghostbusters leading that month. This year's November it will for sure cross that mark. Let's guess grosses.

 

November openings (around 580-620M)

One Piece: 20M - 12.8M

Armageddon Time: 5M - 1.8M

Black Panther: 450-500M (or beyond that if it's beloved) - 375M

The Menu: 25M - 20.5M

She Said: 15M - 4.8M

Devotion: 15M - 10.5M

Strange World: 25/30M - 20.5M

Fabelmans: 20-25M - 4M

Bones and All: 5-10M - 4.5M

 

Many prestige adult movies looking to deliver good numbers, but after pandemy it's been hard for this kind of movies to be succesful. I have a feeling one of them will find an audience and deliver a solid gross, better than the numbers I have predicted.

 

Holdovers (around 120-130M)

Black Adam: 50-55M - 50.5M

Ticket to Paradise: 30-35M - 31M

Prey for the Devil: 10M - 10.9M

Smile: 10M - 11.7M

Till: 10M - 5M

Lyle, Lyle Crocodile: 5M - 12.7M

Halloween Ends: 5M - 2.7M

 

Rest: 25-30M

 

So around 750M for November, IMHO, with a chance of 800M.

 

Underwhelming November 2022. I overpredicted the monthly gross by more than 100M, mostly because of BPWF and prestige adult films. Final November number will be around 625M. Bolded the final grosses.