stripe Posted August 29, 2022 Share Posted August 29, 2022 Let's guess about September, trying to be more conservative. Last year, cumulative gross was 367M thanks to Shang Chi. It will be very difficult to reach that number. September Openers, around 160M Honk for Jesus: 10-15M NWH Fun Stuff: 15-20M (tracking suggests a moderately succesful LD opening, I think) Barbarian: 30-35M Clerks III: 5M Woman King: 35-45M Avatar: 20M Don't Worry Darling: 15M Bros: 10M Smile: 5M Holdovers, around 140M Invitation: 10M BT: 15M Beast: 15M TGM: 20M Super Pets: 15M Rest: 50-60M Around 300M unless Barbarian or Woman King overperform. Also, the rerelease of Avatar might surprise 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pinacolada Posted August 29, 2022 Share Posted August 29, 2022 2 hours ago, stripe said: Let's guess about September, trying to be more conservative. Last year, cumulative gross was 367M thanks to Shang Chi. It will be very difficult to reach that number. September Openers, around 160M Honk for Jesus: 10-15M NWH Fun Stuff: 15-20M (tracking suggests a moderately succesful LD opening, I think) Barbarian: 30-35M Clerks III: 5M Woman King: 35-45M Avatar: 20M Don't Worry Darling: 15M Bros: 10M Smile: 5M Holdovers, around 140M Invitation: 10M BT: 15M Beast: 15M TGM: 20M Super Pets: 15M Rest: 50-60M Around 300M unless Barbarian or Woman King overperform. Also, the rerelease of Avatar might surprise I think Smile will breakout. Bros will do better than that too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted August 30, 2022 Share Posted August 30, 2022 15 hours ago, Pinacolada said: I think Smile will breakout. Bros will do better than that too. That numbers are just their OD, aka September 30th gross 😉 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattW Posted August 31, 2022 Share Posted August 31, 2022 (edited) I was looking at september just a couple days ago and came up with a similar 275-300 total. Lower end puts it almost as bad as Jan-Feb were when comparing to pre-pandemic monthly averages. Real feast or famine kind of market. Edit Sept 7: 300-325 Sept 475-575 Oct Somewhere around 600 for Nov Oct 14 edit: Oct ~480 Nov 700-750 Edited October 14, 2022 by MattW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 On 8/29/2022 at 3:46 PM, stripe said: Let's guess about September, trying to be more conservative. Last year, cumulative gross was 367M thanks to Shang Chi. It will be very difficult to reach that number. September Openers, around 160M Honk for Jesus: 10-15M NWH Fun Stuff: 15-20M (tracking suggests a moderately succesful LD opening, I think) Barbarian: 30-35M Clerks III: 5M Woman King: 35-45M Avatar: 20M Don't Worry Darling: 15M Bros: 10M Smile: 5M Holdovers, around 140M Invitation: 10M BT: 15M Beast: 15M TGM: 20M Super Pets: 15M Rest: 50-60M Around 300M unless Barbarian or Woman King overperform. Also, the rerelease of Avatar might surprise So in the end, I was close with that 300M. September will gross around 310-320M, not far away of last year's 367M. I overpredicted a few (LOL at Honk for Jesus). Bros will also come really short of that 10M OD. Didn't predict openings of late wide openings such as Pearl, See How they run, Brahmastra, Jaws or Lifemark, and those definitely helped. Glad that DWD and TWK did better than expected, specially the former. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 Let’s do predictions for October. Last year the cumulative gross was 623M thanks to Venom 2, NTTD, HK, Dune and Addams Family 2 solid openings. For the second consecutive month, it will be very difficult to match last year’s numbers. October openings (around 300-330M) Amsterdam: 20-30M (the hardest to predict) Lyle, Lyle Crocodile: 40M Halloween Ends: 80-90M Black Adam: 110-120M Ticket to Paradise: 35M Prey for the Devil: 15M There’s potential breakout for films such as Lyle or Ticket to Paradise. Let’s see also if TÁR, Till or Triangle of Sadness expand after their limited openings. Holdovers (around 180M) TWK: 35M Smile: 40-50M Bros: 30M DWD: 20M Avatar: 15M Barbarian: 10M Rest: 20M So, 500M is the goal for October 2022 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grebacio Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 October openings (around 350M) Amsterdam: 28M Lyle, Lyle Crocodile: 54M Halloween Ends: 83M Black Adam: 146M Ticket to Paradise: 32M Prey for the Devil: 12M Holdovers (around 190M ) TWK: 37M Smile: 62M Bros: 27M DWD: 21M Avatar: 12M Barbarian: 11M Rest: 20 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 On 9/29/2022 at 12:33 PM, stripe said: Let’s do predictions for October. Last year the cumulative gross was 623M thanks to Venom 2, NTTD, HK, Dune and Addams Family 2 solid openings. For the second consecutive month, it will be very difficult to match last year’s numbers. October openings (around 300-330M) Amsterdam: 20-30M (the hardest to predict) - 14.6M Lyle, Lyle Crocodile: 40M - 32.7M Halloween Ends: 80-90M - 61.4M Black Adam: 110-120M - 112.9M Ticket to Paradise: 35M - 34.6M Prey for the Devil: 15M - 8.2M There’s potential breakout for films such as Lyle or Ticket to Paradise. Let’s see also if TÁR, Till or Triangle of Sadness expand after their limited openings. Holdovers (around 180M) TWK: 35M - 23.2M Smile: 40-50M - 85.6M Bros: 30M - 9.8M DWD: 20M - 17M Avatar: 15M - 9.6M Barbarian: 10M - 9.5M Rest: 20M -45M So, 500M is the goal for October 2022 October fell 32M short of 500M. Bolded the final grosses. I overpredicted some of the films, especially Halloween and Bros Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juby Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 (edited) On 7/12/2022 at 12:05 PM, Juby said: Guess who's back?! https://www.the-numbers.com/news/252230830-2022-market-prediction-Maverick-gives-theatrical-business-a-giant-lift My updated counter-prediction: Top Gun: Maverick $670m (+$45m) Avatar: The Way of Water $620m (Dec 16th - Jan 1st) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $450mDoctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness $412m (-$3m)Jurassic World: Dominion $375m (-$5m)The Batman $369.3m Thor: Love and Thunder $360m (-$90m)Minions: The Rise of Gru $330m (+$120m)Sonic the Hedgehog 2 $190.9m No other +$190m grosser this year. My final prediction for Top10-2022: Top Gun: Maverick $717m (+$47m) Avatar: The Way of Water $620m (Dec 16th - Jan 1st) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $450mDoctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness $411.3m (-$0.7m)Jurassic World: Dominion $376m (+$1m)Minions: The Rise of Gru $370m (+$40m)The Batman $369.3mThor: Love and Thunder $343.3m (-$16.7m)Sonic the Hedgehog 2 $190.9mElvis $151m Edited November 2, 2022 by Juby Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 November 2022. Last year, cumulative gross was 523M, with Eternals and Ghostbusters leading that month. This year's November it will for sure cross that mark. Let's guess grosses. November openings (around 580-620M) One Piece: 20M Armageddon Time: 5M Black Panther: 450-500M (or beyond that if it's beloved) The Menu: 25M She Said: 15M Devotion: 15M Strange World: 25-30M Fabelmans: 20-25M Bones and All: 5-10M Many prestige adult movies looking to deliver good numbers, but after pandemy it's been hard for this kind of movies to be succesful. I have a feeling one of them will find an audience and deliver a solid gross, better than the numbers I have predicted. Holdovers (around 120-130M) Black Adam: 50-55M Ticket to Paradise: 30-35M Prey for the Devil: 10M Smile: 10M Till: 10M Lyle, Lyle Crocodile: 5M Halloween Ends: 5M Rest: 25-30M So around 750M for November, IMHO, with a chance of 800M. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, stripe said: November 2022. Last year, cumulative gross was 523M, with Eternals and Ghostbusters leading that month. This year's November it will for sure cross that mark. Let's guess grosses. November openings (around 580-620M) One Piece: 20M Armageddon Time: 5M Black Panther: 450-500M (or beyond that if it's beloved) The Menu: 25M She Said: 15M Devotion: 15M Strange World: 25-30M Fabelmans: 20-25M Bones and All: 5-10M Many prestige adult movies looking to deliver good numbers, but after pandemy it's been hard for this kind of movies to be succesful. I have a feeling one of them will find an audience and deliver a solid gross, better than the numbers I have predicted. All of these numbers would be insane overperformances given what's currently expected of them (Armageddon Time has already fizzled in limited release). The Biggest Movies Coming to Theaters in November 2022 - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com) Edit: I misread, thought these were actual opening predictions, nevermind lol. Edited November 2, 2022 by filmlover Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 2 hours ago, filmlover said: All of these numbers would be insane overperformances given what's currently expected of them (Armageddon Time has already fizzled in limited release). The Biggest Movies Coming to Theaters in November 2022 - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com) Edit: I misread, thought these were actual opening predictions, nevermind lol. LOL imagine if BPWF would manage to open to 400M+ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juby Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 https://www.the-numbers.com/news/252940830-2022-23-market-prediction-Smile-Ticket-to-Paradise-and-Black-Panther-help-boost-end-of-year-forecast 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poweranimals Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 9 hours ago, Juby said: https://www.the-numbers.com/news/252940830-2022-23-market-prediction-Smile-Ticket-to-Paradise-and-Black-Panther-help-boost-end-of-year-forecast Their Avatar prediction 😂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Verrows Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 1 minute ago, poweranimals said: Their Avatar prediction 😂 Remember this is just for the calendar year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poweranimals Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Verrows said: Remember this is just for the calendar year. It says 2022/23 though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Verrows Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 10 minutes ago, poweranimals said: It says 2022/23 though. Oh...right. What the hell?? I mean, unless they know something we don't. It was weird that James Cameron came out with those comments about ending the Avatar story after 3 if the audience has checked out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jedijake Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 Av2 will be quite a bit above that number by its second week for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cooper Legion Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 It literally says (2022gross) you guys, c'mon now It a bit low but not completely out of pocket 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted November 30, 2022 Share Posted November 30, 2022 On 11/2/2022 at 12:33 PM, stripe said: November 2022. Last year, cumulative gross was 523M, with Eternals and Ghostbusters leading that month. This year's November it will for sure cross that mark. Let's guess grosses. November openings (around 580-620M) One Piece: 20M - 12.8M Armageddon Time: 5M - 1.8M Black Panther: 450-500M (or beyond that if it's beloved) - 375M The Menu: 25M - 20.5M She Said: 15M - 4.8M Devotion: 15M - 10.5M Strange World: 25/30M - 20.5M Fabelmans: 20-25M - 4M Bones and All: 5-10M - 4.5M Many prestige adult movies looking to deliver good numbers, but after pandemy it's been hard for this kind of movies to be succesful. I have a feeling one of them will find an audience and deliver a solid gross, better than the numbers I have predicted. Holdovers (around 120-130M) Black Adam: 50-55M - 50.5M Ticket to Paradise: 30-35M - 31M Prey for the Devil: 10M - 10.9M Smile: 10M - 11.7M Till: 10M - 5M Lyle, Lyle Crocodile: 5M - 12.7M Halloween Ends: 5M - 2.7M Rest: 25-30M So around 750M for November, IMHO, with a chance of 800M. Underwhelming November 2022. I overpredicted the monthly gross by more than 100M, mostly because of BPWF and prestige adult films. Final November number will be around 625M. Bolded the final grosses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...