BLACK WIDOW OPENING WEEKEND THREAD | 80M DOM, 78 OS, Disney PR - 60M Premier Access (aka we swear it's not a disappoinment)

[john2000]

i also want to point out , that black widow is looking at 85-95 overseasl weekend according to @charlie Jatinder  , without china and some south east asia countries deadline is saying 70+ but yesterday they were saying 50 so......

[EmpireCity]

25 minutes ago, John Marston said:

It’s a decent number for BW but nothing amazing being based on an established hero 

 

I think it is beyond decent.  No other MCU movie has had to face a large amount of theaters still closed or operating at reduced capacity, day and date availability on a streaming platform, long delays and various other factors working against it.  

 

This opens at $125m+ if all the conditions are normal.  Getting $90m this weekend is incredible.  

[TigerPaw]

4 minutes ago, john2000 said:

indeed, however there were no vaccines before unlike now,  sec these vaccines are effective against this variant and last , vaccinations have and will gather more pace ,in any case i personally doubt that the sec half of 2021 will be like last year, finger crossed , so far alsmost 12% of the entire world is fully vaccinated, without counting those that were infected, are we in an ideal scenario no, are we better than last year ? hell yes

I mean here in Singapore, when the new wave hit us in May - a lot of those who were infected had vaccines already - Pfzier vaccines.

Apparently the vaccines help to reduce the symptoms; but doesn't really help to ensure you won't be infected.

 

And the lack of symptoms actually makes it more dangerous as someone who is vaccinated may be infected and totally not know it, continues daily activities and spread it around.

 

We will see what happens. Fingers crossed..but cases in the US is creeping up as we speak.

[EmpireCity]

This weekend will also show studios yet again that the only model that truly makes sense going forward is an exclusive theatrical window followed by a PVOD window and then finally release on their native streaming platform.  

 

There is not a single customer that will cancel their Disney+ subscription if they get Black Widow in 90 days instead of day and date.  

 

Give theaters at least 45 days, then go to PVOD 45 days and then to Disney+.  Everyone wins.  

[john2000]

Just now, EmpireCity said:

 

I think it is beyond decent.  No other MCU movie has had to face a large amount of theaters still closed or operating at reduced capacity, day and date availability on a streaming platform, long delays and various other factors working against it.  

 

This opens at $125m+ if all the conditions are normal.  Getting $90m this weekend is incredible.  

17% of movie theaters worldwide are not open yet  even though 83% operetaing is amazing and also black widow had like what 5 delays ... 

[Cooper Legion]

8 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

I think we got spoiled by Phase 3’s performance and started to think 300m DOM and 1b WW is the norm for the MCU films.

Nah, that is the new norm. Doesn’t mean every single film will hit it, but for instance BW would be around there if it had a smooth Labor Day China release, no covid, no PA, etc  

 

Also

10 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

 

Shang-Chi - 185/560

Eternals - 275/775

NWH - 475/1300, provided no virus surge

DSitMOM - 325/900

TLaT - 425/1100

BPWF - 600/1250

Marvels - 425/1200

AMatWQM - 285/835

GoTGv3 - 375/1000

The average and median performance here is 375/1B

[john2000]

Just now, TigerPaw said:

I mean here in Singapore, when the new wave hit us in May - a lot of those who were infected had vaccines already - Pfzier vaccines.

Apparently the vaccines help to reduce the symptoms; but doesn't really help to ensure you won't be infected.

 

And the lack of symptoms actually makes it more dangerous as someone who is vaccinated may be infected and totally not know it, continues daily activities and spread it around.

 

We will see what happens. Fingers crossed..but cases in the US is creeping up as we speak.

not really, vaccines prevents death and hospitalalizations, those 2 are the most important thing  , if those 2 are at low levels then cases dont matter much , as for us well of course noone should expect cases to drop all the time ,cases will drop and will increase from time to time its normal,anyways we are getting out of topic here we will see

[TigerPaw]

2 minutes ago, john2000 said:

17% of movie theaters worldwide are not open yet  even though 83% operetaing is amazing and also black widow had like what 5 delays ... 

We are talking about domestic performance here right?

[Cooper Legion]

3 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

I mean here in Singapore, when the new wave hit us in May - a lot of those who were infected had vaccines already - Pfzier vaccines.

Apparently the vaccines help to reduce the symptoms; but doesn't really help to ensure you won't be infected.

 

And the lack of symptoms actually makes it more dangerous as someone who is vaccinated may be infected and totally not know it, continues daily activities and spread it around.

 

We will see what happens. Fingers crossed..but cases in the US is creeping up as we speak.

Vaccinated people who are infected but asymptomatic don’t contribute much to transmission, so not really a problem.

[YM!]

1 minute ago, Lokis Legion said:

Nah, that is the new norm. Doesn’t mean every single film will hit it, but for instance BW would be around there if it had a smooth Labor Day China release, no covid, no PA, etc  

 

Also

The average and median performance here is 375/1B

Yes but if you read what I’d say and pay attention to the slate most of them are sequels correct. And I said what about solos?

[EmpireCity]

Just now, TigerPaw said:

I mean here in Singapore, when the new wave hit us in May - a lot of those who were infected had vaccines already - Pfzier vaccines.

Apparently the vaccines help to reduce the symptoms; but doesn't really help to ensure you won't be infected.

 

And the lack of symptoms actually makes it more dangerous as someone who is vaccinated may be infected and totally not know it, continues daily activities and spread it around.

 

We will see what happens. Fingers crossed..but cases in the US is creeping up as we speak.

 

I get in countries that haven't had the chance to vaccinate, this makes sense, but in the United States every single person 12+ has had the chance to be vaccinated.  

 

Delta variant might have breakthrough infections on the vaccinated, but the effects are either asymptomatic or very mild that resemble a common cold.  

 

People need to realize you can't protect the people unwilling to get vaccinated and shouldn't change anything for them at this point, and if the Delta variant runs wild in populations in the United States that are anti-vax, then so be it.  

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

We are talking about domestic performance here right?

thats worldwide i think, but there is a chance that i am wrong 

[EmpireCity]

North America is operating at roughly 70% normal levels or worse if you account for theaters still closed, local seating restrictions and reduced capacity due to labor issues.  

[Cooper Legion]

7 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Yes but if you read what I’d say and pay attention to the slate most of them are sequels correct. And I said what about solos?

Well, if your claim is specifically that 300/1B isn’t the norm for solo first entries then sure, that seems reasonable. But that’s not a distinction you made clearly in the post I quoted. And since a majority of movies are sequels and crossover events, if the sequels and crossover events are averaging like 400/1.25 while solo first entries average like 250/750, then it largely is the case that 300+/1B+ is the new norm.

Edited July 10, 2021 by Lokis Legion

[titanic2187]

9 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

I mean here in Singapore, when the new wave hit us in May - a lot of those who were infected had vaccines already - Pfzier vaccines.

Apparently the vaccines help to reduce the symptoms; but doesn't really help to ensure you won't be infected.

 

And the lack of symptoms actually makes it more dangerous as someone who is vaccinated may be infected and totally not know it, continues daily activities and spread it around.

 

We will see what happens. Fingers crossed..but cases in the US is creeping up as we speak.

I think the primary data for reference shouldn't be the number of new cases after mass vaccination , but the hospital admission and number of death. For example, In USA, there are 40-70k people died from common flu every year before covid, if they can bring down the covid-death to a similar level like flu, then we probably should move on. But to clarify, USA is still far that range as of now.

[Cap]

2 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

The box office draws us all back....

 

 

Nice to see the gang is all here. 

 

 

[ThomasNicole]

15 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

This weekend will also show studios yet again that the only model that truly makes sense going forward is an exclusive theatrical window followed by a PVOD window and then finally release on their native streaming platform.  

 

There is not a single customer that will cancel their Disney+ subscription if they get Black Widow in 90 days instead of day and date.  

 

Give theaters at least 45 days, then go to PVOD 45 days and then to Disney+.  Everyone wins.  

They're so not doing it.

 

The theatrical exclusive for 45 days sure, Warner even make deals with this model for 2022.

 

But they're not using PVOD if they can put on their platform, streaming is the future. Warner and Disney want to compete to Netflix and their theatrical movies reaching the platforms weeks after release is one of their strenghts.

[Cooper Legion]

Still feel like the logical equilibrium is something like PA after a one month window, free streaming after 3

[grey ghost]

I expect F9 numbers for Shang Chi and Eternals but Spidey 3 will blow up.

 

That plus The Matrix 4 will put box office in full swing.

 

Setting up The Batman to smash records. That's assuming there are no variant D shenanigans. 

 

[TigerPaw]

7 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

I think the primary data for reference shouldn't be the number of new cases after mass vaccination , but the hospital admission and number of death. For example, In USA, there are 40-70k people died from common flu every year before covid, if they can bring down the covid-death to a similar level like flu, then we probably should move on. But to clarify, USA is still far that range as of now.

Yes i get that; but it also depends on the particular country's leaders and authorities on their view on things, and WHO's advice at that point of time.

 

I think it is important to be optimistic, but i am just being more cautiously optimistic than bullishly optimistic. 

I mean no one expected that when BW was delayed from May to July, that SEA and Taiwan will be pretty much closed, S.Korea facing tighter restrictions next week, part of Australia extending lockdown and China's release being delayed..(though last point is not COVID related). I would argue that on a worldwide gross basis (not net profit basis), BW would have done better in late Apr / May.

 

So we cannot predict everything and my post earlier was just trying to outline that the situation is not as straightforward as we think, it is fluid and can change drastically in a few weeks' time.