BLACK WIDOW OPENING WEEKEND THREAD | 80M DOM, 78 OS, Disney PR - 60M Premier Access (aka we swear it's not a disappoinment)

[Cmasterclay]

I mean the pandemic is def winding down in America and all that but people expecting shit to just snap back to normal within one month is pretty silly. We just had 600,000 people die and the unvaccinated people are still getting 20,000 cases a day! It's still raging in almost every part of the world that has a worse vaccine than us! If anything things seem a little AHEAD of schedule to me.

[EmpireCity]

23 minutes ago, VENOM said:

They were expecting 100 up until a few hours ago.. can’t use the pandemic card this time, America is vaccinated and fully open.

 

See, you're not telling it how it is though.  The domestic box office also includes Canada which is not even close to back to open yet.  

 

America also isn't vaccinated and fully open.  12 and under aren't vaccinated.  The biggest movie going markets in the country, New York and Los Angeles, still have seating and distancing restrictions in a lot of theaters.  

 

Many theaters aren't even open and a lot that are aren't running anywhere near full capacity due to distancing, labor shortages and other factors.  

 

It will remain like this until the Fall.  

[Cap]

Hey?  Just waiting here for the numbers to role in?  Come watch Johnny Guitar with Joan Crawford with us!  It's for Panda's Western Movie Countdown!

 

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[EmpireCity]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I mean the pandemic is def winding down in America and all that but people expecting shit to just snap back to normal within one month is pretty silly. We just had 600,000 people die and the unvaccinated people are still getting 20,000 cases a day! It's still raging in almost every part of the world that has a worse vaccine than us! If anything things seem a little AHEAD of schedule to me.

 

Correct on all of this, and outside of A Quiet Place Part II and Black Widow, the content available is still lacking and subpar for the most part.  It won't be anywhere close to "normal" until nearly October when you get a run of Venom, James Bond, Dune, Last Night in Soho and others.  

[Cmasterclay]

If Venom isn't Revenge of the Fallen level bad I think 90m could be possible for it. The first one has a weird mixture of ironic and unironic fans and Carnage is a big draw for comic fans. Plus, it is a theatrical exclusive. Hardy only becomes a bigger star every year because of Peaky Blinders etc.

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I mean the pandemic is def winding down in America and all that but people expecting shit to just snap back to normal within one month is pretty silly. We just had 600,000 people die and the unvaccinated people are still getting 20,000 cases a day! It's still raging in almost every part of the world that has a worse vaccine than us! If anything things seem a little AHEAD of schedule to me.

 

I would also add, and @VENOM might not be aware of this, there are plenty of theaters that are closed.  Some chains went out of buisness completely.  Recently Deadline noted that about 15% of screens were still closed as of F9.

 

Ontario is still locked up.

Caps are still in place in some areas.

Disney+ has it available for $30 for folks who squemish about theaters/their theaters are closed.

 

All of this matters.  From my own, if I do say so myself, highly detailed tracking, BW looks to be losing about 20% or so of its box office gross from what it "should" have done on preview night.  Call it 15% if you think Sacto numbers are particularly off.  That 15% off lines up nicely with the missing screens/no Ontario.

 

So yes, Venom, wishes and hopes from some partisans aside, there ain't that much disappointing about this particular result.  Or rather, the disappointment isn't in BW's number, but the overall recovery of the DOM market.

 

Finally, if one thinks I am being a shill for Disney, I would note that Sacramento suggests that AQP II and F9  also lost about 15 to 20 percent of their box office gross, at least when it came to preview night.

 

Three data points may not be conclusive, but it's decent enough to start a trendline.

 

Edited July 10, 2021 by Porthos

[Daxtreme]

So glad to be able to read all of you again. Amazing week-end thread so far and Black Widow is performing well if you take into account the fact that the world is batshit crazy right now.

 

I'm in Canada and theaters here are 50% capacity or so (every seat must have an empty seat on all sides). Theater was full considering those limitations, it was great to be back in a theater watching a Marvel blockbuster. Lots of us missed that this past 1.5 year

 

We'll probably have to wait and see next summer if things can be really, fully back to normal as far as box office goes. The looming threat of online-only premium releases is annoying though... One of my friends just pirated Black Widow, he usually went to the theater because, well, that was the only option you know...

 

Anyway. Great to be back

[Cmasterclay]

Also, I just gotta say, it is amazing to see a weekend thread hopping so much again. Almost feels like normal times. I've missed this. I should be out knocking doors and you guys are distracting me!!

[VENOM]

9 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

See, you're not telling it how it is though.  The domestic box office also includes Canada which is not even close to back to open yet.  

 

America also isn't vaccinated and fully open.  12 and under aren't vaccinated.  The biggest movie going markets in the country, New York and Los Angeles, still have seating and distancing restrictions in a lot of theaters.  

 

Many theaters aren't even open and a lot that are aren't running anywhere near full capacity due to distancing, labor shortages and other factors.  

 

It will remain like this until the Fall.  

I told it how it was because despite you saying this now people were expecting 100 OW so bringing up the pandemic excuse now after the fact is not being honest with yourself.

[EmpireCity]

I think the rest of the summer is going to play out rather quietly.  There will be some surprises and disappointments, but the real actual kick off to normality is going to be Venom.  

 

Good chance that the next round of kids 6+ will be vaccinated at that point, almost every school will be back in person, people will be back to the office, fall sports will be in full swing and (hopefully) the Delta or whatever variant will be seen as an overall non-issue and the world will feel as normal as it has felt since February 2020.  Studios will have announced a theatrical window deal.  

 

Venom leads into No Time To Die which leads into a loaded fall and holiday slate which leads into a loaded spring and summer 2022.

[EmpireCity]

6 minutes ago, VENOM said:

I told it how it was because despite you saying this now people were expecting 100 OW so bringing up the pandemic excuse now after the fact is not being honest with yourself.

 

Or it's you being a troll.  

[Eric Loves Rey]

Ehh, the Venom 2 trailer feels like it kind of came and went IMO. The ads for the first Venom were everywhere, which I don’t see at this point. It could change once we get closer to September, but it fees like it’ll do like the mid-100s in terms of domestic total

[Porthos]

*starts to type several things*

*deletes them all*

 

I've said my piece on this.

 

Remember, everyone:

 

Not Cool

Ignore

Report

Don't Respond

 

Edited July 10, 2021 by Porthos
damn spell checker

[EmpireCity]

I'm also going to be shocked if Matrix 4 stays in its current release date.  It seems a prime candidate to move to summer and drop the HBOMax release.  

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

I think the rest of the summer is going to play out rather quietly.  There will be some surprises and disappointments, but the real actual kick off to normality is going to be Venom.  

 

Good chance that the next round of kids 6+ will be vaccinated at that point, almost every school will be back in person, people will be back to the office, fall sports will be in full swing and (hopefully) the Delta or whatever variant will be seen as an overall non-issue and the world will feel as normal as it has felt since February 2020.  Studios will have announced a theatrical window deal.  

 

Venom leads into No Time To Die which leads into a loaded fall and holiday slate which leads into a loaded spring and summer 2022.

Everything that's expected to be a heavy hitter of some sorts coming out the rest of the summer is also debuting on streaming the same day so expectations are already lowered a bit. Fall through the holidays are packed though so studios are clearly banking on the 4th quarter making the most money during this year of recovery.

[EmpireCity]

I have to log off for the afternoon, but I'll just say this....

 

Looking at the fall/winter 2021 and especially the 2022 release schedule can't help but make you giddy for the prospects of the box office going forward.  When it comes down to it, the studios will figure out that streaming subscriptions will not change one iota if the movie goes to theaters for 45 days first.  Disney will figure out the $30 on Disney+ also isn't worth the trade off in cultural impact that a theatrical release has.  

 

Theaters are going to exist going forward and they are going to thrive.  Exciting times are ahead.  

[VENOM]

12 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Or it's you being a troll.  

I’m starting to notice a trend, if I make a valid argument that you can’t refute you just call me a troll 

[Legion Again]

Okay, let’s pull up the rest of the calendar and I’ll sketch out some quick (quick) hits.  

BW: 86/225

TSS (Aug 6): 50/125

Shang-Chi (Sep 3): 75/225

V2 (Sep 24): 70/175

NTTD (Oct 8): 80/220

Dune: (Oct 22): 40/110

Eternals (Nov 5): 95/275

Encanto  (Nov 24, 🦃 Wed): 40/60/160

NWH: 160/520

 

Matrix and Sing could also go 150+, but let’s just end there.

 

 

 

[Krissykins]

I’m with the critics on Venom (29%). I thought it was embarrassing. Seems to have fans on Twitter I guess. Black Widow’s opening will be the one to beat going forward, especially for films with no streaming release. 

Edited July 10, 2021 by Krissykins

[EmpireCity]

I forgot to add and sort of mentioned this earlier, but theaters have had zero leverage for 18 months for obvious reasons.  That is going to change and change quickly.  Expect some real traction on that in the next 6 weeks.  

 

Also should be encouraging that there has been zero announcement from Disney that Shang-Chi will be on Disney+ day and date and everything released for Encanto all points to theatrical only.  The studios are keeping their powder dry because they know that theatrical first is the best financial option for everyone.