Oppenheimer | 2024 Academy Award Winner for Best Picture and Best Director

[GOGODanca]

3 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

I agree, but spending $100M on production and another $70M on marketing? That puts the movie in a tough spot to break even. 

Universal cares more about getting Nolan in the fold for them then whats being spent on this film, you hope he can give you a hit with this kind of movie (he's one of the only few who has a chance) but even if he doesn't, you still want his next inception or interstellar to be for you

[redfirebird2008]

6 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

Universal cares more about getting Nolan in the fold for them then whats being spent on this film, you hope he can give you a hit with this kind of movie (he's one of the only few who has a chance) but even if he doesn't, you still want his next inception or interstellar to be for you

I’m sure they hope for that. It’s also possible he has lost some of his magic touch. It happens with pretty much every creative person. 

[Immortal]

1 hour ago, excel1 said:

 

Right. Some argue that the US didnt need to drop them on Japan, or didn't need to drop 2 on them...tough to say. 

Based on my admittedly low historical knowledge both were necessary because they showed that it is what awaited the Japanese if they continued to fight. As inhumane as it sounds the dropping of the bombs was absolutely necessary otherwise much more people would be dead and the conflict would have continued for a few more months.

Edited May 9, 2023 by Immortal

[screambaby]

2 hours ago, excel1 said:

 

Right. Some argue that the US didnt need to drop them on Japan, or didn't need to drop 2 on them...tough to say. 

Japan's warlords still didnt want to surrender even after Nagasaki and the soviets entering the war against them on the same day. The hirahito  said enough was enough and then the warlords hatched a coup attempt against him when he went to annouce the surrender on the radio....took only a few severe loyalists to hirahito from keeping the war going...without the a bombs it would have been impossible

 

 

 

[eXtacy]

If Tenant can do 360m during a pandemic then why cant this do 400m+

 

100m budget seems fine

[scytheavatar]

4 hours ago, eXtacy said:

If Tenant can do 360m during a pandemic then why cant this do 400m+

 

100m budget seems fine

 

Cause Tenet was an action film and a very generic one too. Oppenheimer is not a war film, it's a post war film and it's going to be hard to sell what that is going to be a film with mostly a lot of talking heads. Especially when the Oscarbait market is dead with no signs of revival. The "ensemble cast" is already a red flag considering how recent ensemble cast films like Amsterdam and Babylon had performed.

 

Also a case can be made that Tenet damaged Nolan's reputation a lot.

Edited May 9, 2023 by scytheavatar

[Issac Newton]

Not sure but Oppenheimer seems to be likely getting blocked here. Some cinema Chain are expressing concern and uncomfortable in screening the film. Perhaps, Toho-Towa, Distributor of Universal Release are unable to decide a date either

[reddevil19]

1 hour ago, scytheavatar said:

Also a case can be made that Tenet damaged Nolan's reputation a lot.

Did it, though? Sure, it's not one of his best, but it still made a lot of money considering the circumstances. I don't understand why a lot of people talk about it as being a flop when it made the kind of money it did in that situation, solely on his name. Personally, I think the worst thing that can be said of the movie is that it was ignored by a lot of people given the release and it got lost in the ether. 

Also, his best movies are the smaller scale ones - Dunkirk (despite being a war movie, was small compared to the previous few; hell, a lot of people felt that it was a negative, that it didn't feel as big as it should have), The Prestige, even Insomnia. I think cinephiles are optimistic about him delivering something on a par with those, while casual moviegoers will recognise his name and possibly be interested in a well-received biopic.

 

The caveats though for me are as follows:

1. Length - being 3 hours might mean casual audiences will skip it because not having action makes that a hard sell for a cinema outing. But the bigger red flag for me here is what that length means for the actual movie. Again, I think Nolan is better when his movies are tighter (even if the structure is not conventional). This might simply be overlong and POTENTIALLY feel like two movies somehow stitched together. Obviously, this is just speculation, but even with the black and white shots in the trailer, you almost feel like you have one movie following the development of the bomb (maybe a more urgent pacing, closer to a thriller at times) and then another movie dealing with the aftermath (think Trumbo).
2. Reception itself - this, more than pretty much any other Nolan movie since he became a recognizable name, will rely on reviews. There's his fanbase, sure, but I think a considerable number of that fanbase is "big scale, big ideas, action/sci-fi Nolan" fans, so they'll be reticent about this. Reviews will need to be off the charts to get people in, especially casual viewers. An I honestly have no idea how reviews will go. I can easily see this being a 60-70% RT, which would be just as bad as a rotten, or I can see mid-90's. Fuck knows...
3. Release date - yes, a lot of people keep harping on but I gotta agree. This just doesn't FEEL like an appropriate summer release, even as counter-programming to the big action flicks. It's not that I crave only escapism or spectacle when it comes to cinema-going, but June and July are fairly packed with releases. I'll make time here and there to see all of them, but I WILL prioritise the bigger ones simply because - for me - they're a fun time when viewed in a packed screening. I just can't picture myself with a bucket of popcorn, in a full screening, with 300 people, for Oppenheimer, when Indiana Jones or Mission Impossible are playing next door. I am far more likely to skip Oppenheimer in cinemas during summer than during awards season.

 

I believe we will have opposing opinions from members here for the next couple of months and possibly well beyond that regarding the movie's performance (short of a 99% RT and 500 million WW OR the opposite 30% and Shazam 2 box office, there won't be a consensus, I feel).

For Universal, I gotta think the best case scenario is great reviews and continued industry support to take it to awards season. They want his next big scale project to have trailers that include "From the Academy Award Winning Producer of OPPENHEIMER". Whether or not that happens is the big question (my answer atm being no)

 

[Gavin Feng]

32 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Not sure but Oppenheimer seems to be likely getting blocked here. Some cinema Chain are expressing concern and uncomfortable in screening the film. Perhaps, Toho-Towa, Distributor of Universal Release are unable to decide a date either

any official report about it?

[Issac Newton]

6 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

any official report about it?

Nah, Universal didn't release any trailer. Neither Nolan is optimistic about getting the market (Lol, they don't have a Japanese Twitter acc to promote the film)

 

「これで人類に平和が…」

「このボタンを押せば世界が滅びる…？」

 

Fandom translation seems to be creating problem. Earlier I though summer pack up was making release date undecidable but they are more things going on internally. And Toho-Towa is currently thinking of leaving things aside until June or so unless Universal doesn't have any say on it's release.

 

Eternals did have similar situation but still EIRIN let it pass censorship with G rating

 

 

[Issac Newton]

Now, it's not that Toho-Towa decides later but all Universal Release have a date for Japan except Oppenheimer 

[Gavin Feng]

14 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Nah, Universal didn't release any trailer. Neither Nolan is optimistic about getting the market (Lol, they don't have a Japanese Twitter acc to promote the film)

 

「これで人類に平和が…」

「このボタンを押せば世界が滅びる…？」

 

Fandom translation seems to be creating problem. Earlier I though summer pack up was making release date undecidable but they are more things going on internally. And Toho-Towa is currently thinking of leaving things aside until June or so unless Universal doesn't have any say on it's release.

 

Eternals did have similar situation but still EIRIN let it pass censorship with G rating

 

 

 

damn, Actually Universal didn't release any trailer or poster until this week in mainland China. I guess they really realized the dangerous of telling a story about this in Asia...

[kayumanggi]

 

[Gavin Feng]

32 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

 

no any report about they had an affair on set?

[Jonwo]

11 hours ago, GOGODanca said:

Universal cares more about getting Nolan in the fold for them then whats being spent on this film, you hope he can give you a hit with this kind of movie (he's one of the only few who has a chance) but even if he doesn't, you still want his next inception or interstellar to be for you

Exactly, Spielberg's box office track record has been patchy lately but studios know that keeping him sweet means a potential winner down the line. Likewise with Clint Eastwood, for every 1-2 movies that flop, you get a winner. 

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

1 hour ago, kayumanggi said:

 

From that article, it says the Oppenheimer script is written in first person. I hope it gets released during the awards campaign, just to see how that would work.

[Rageofthegods]

16 hours ago, redfirebird2008 said:

$90M is a pretty limited audience. 

That's just domestic. Worldwide it made 233m. 

 

233m ww on a 100m budget is just a hair below profitable, and I'm sure with RDJ, Damon, Blunt and Nolan, the international totals will be higher. That's where his movies usually make the bulk of their money - no Nolan movie has made over 200m domestic since TDKR, but his movies do crazy well in places like Europe and China.

 

125m domestic, as someone suggested earlier, would be a pretty good number for this assuming it has a typical OS-Dom split for a Nolan movie. 

Edited May 9, 2023 by Rageofthegods

[stuart360]

A Nolan film will always makes some kind of money due to his name alone. Having said that, i'm not sure who this film appeals to outside his die hard fans that will watch anyhting he makes.

 

I can see something like 120-130mil US, and 250-300mil Worldwide.

 

Which would actually be pretty decent for a film like this.

Edited May 9, 2023 by stuart360

[MrPink]

4 hours ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

From that article, it says the Oppenheimer script is written in first person. I hope it gets released during the awards campaign, just to see how that would work.

I believe like most of Nolan’s other films, an edited screenplay will be available for purchase

[dudalb]

15 hours ago, screambaby said:

Japan's warlords still didnt want to surrender even after Nagasaki and the soviets entering the war against them on the same day. The hirahito  said enough was enough and then the warlords hatched a coup attempt against him when he went to annouce the surrender on the radio....took only a few severe loyalists to hirahito from keeping the war going...without the a bombs it would have been impossible

 

 

 

IMHO tthe use of the Bomb was the best choice of 3 bad options. Even more would have died with the other two: Invasion or continuation of the blockade which was starving Japan.