Weekend Thread (10/22-24) | Dune 41M OW. French Dispatch 1.35M. Timothee can't be stopped!

[YM!]

11 hours ago, poweranimals said:

Remember it's gotta compete against Spidey.

I mean that hasn’t stopped Jumanji doing well against the Star Wars films, or for more similar demographics, Spider Verse and Bumblebee doing well against Aquaman. The day and date is more of a concern than Spidey. I think a $70m five day is definitely in order.

[Cooper Legion]

Yeah there’s money to go around in December. I think M4 should be able to beat Dune’s 3 day, not sure exactly what 5day that would translate to.

[EmpireCity]

$9.85m Sunday for Dune. 

 

 

[von Kenni]

I think Dune's next weekend's haul is $20m+ or damn near of it so even sub 50% drop possible. There's many pros & cons but here's the three things that make that weekend more special for Dune:

 

1) It hauled 50% this weekend gross from PLFs (almost quarter being from IMAX!) which was very much same as with Interstellar in addition to similar WOM. PLFs&IMAXs were a big part helping Interstellar drop only 40% the 2nd weekend and WOM to have long legs with 4.0 multiplier even past fierce competition. Even the demos aren't so far off. HBO Max cuts these numbers and especially legs but the PLFs will carry well next weekend ("must see on the biggest screen" has clearly worked to some extent). When Eternals arrive it's going to be somewhat brutal.

 

2) Maybe Conjuring 3 had the best 2nd weekend drop of -57% of the HBO Max releases so far. It had a relatively easy second weekend competition like Dune has next weekend. However as this weekend's Saturday bump and Sunday drop partly tell, Dune has better WOM than Conjuring 3 (or any other HBO Max release so far?) and should carry better results with its PLFs next weekend. This weekends OW/true Fri ratio with Dune was 2.90 where as with Conjuring 3 2.45 (NTTD had 2.88 which has been a close comparison with Dune other ways too). Dune will probably have some people that saw the movie on HBO to go to the cinema to see it again. More than other HBO Max releases for sure, not perhaps a huge amount, but still amount that could slice couple points out of the drop.

 

3) Ultimately while HBO drags the numbers down, WOM with the PLFs is the biggest decider for next weekend. Fans going multiple times, dragging their friends with them, and new people sharing how they were blown away. Sub 50% possible but in any case under 60%.

 

With Conjuring legs already Dune would gross over $110m in total.

 

Another example route to cross $100m would be Black Widow, if we turn its 2nd (-68%) and 3rd (-55%) weekend drops the other way around which would reflect better the non-competitive nature of Dune's next weekend plus we could even add weaker weekday legs for Dune than with BW, and still get over the 100 mark.

 

So for the 2nd weekend -50-55% drop.

Venom 2 roared to the Russian box office on Dune's 3rd weekend and cut it's legs by -63%. Expecting Eternals to do a bit more. Maybe -65-70%.

 

 

[BoxOfficeZ]

Just now, EmpireCity said:

$9.85m Sunday for Dune. 

 

Around 41m then. Nice 

[TwoMisfits]

3 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Come on guys. This was such a non issue. Obviously everyone was wrong, only I was right.

 

 

 

See, I think we should start a thread just for this...

 

Of course, we also need the reverse thread, "Obviously, everyone was right, and only I was wrong on..."

 

I'm sure we've got a few movies in our back pockets for the 2nd part, too:)...at least if you've been predicting movies long enough...

 

I think I'm in a club right now on the $100M grosser for the year where I could still fit in either category, so it's gonna be a nail biter:)...

[Felandria]

Dune is going to lose some PLFs to Last Night In Soho, though.

[titanic2187]

Quote

Monday AM: A bit of positive news that HBO Max didn’t completely wipe out the weekend box office on Denis Villeneuve’s Dune. Warner Bros. reports this morning that Dune had a much better Sunday than anticipated: $9.78M, -29% from Saturday’s $13.7M instead of $8.9M, -35%. This will send the pic’s revised opening to $41M.

Warners has a hold on the Imax and PLFs before Disney/Marvel’s Eternals on Nov. 5. Still a tough weekend is ahead: while HBO Max event films have shown great slide in weekend 2, it’s also the first Halloween weekend in two years which will be competing with movies at the box office. 

https://deadline.com/2021/10/dune-weekend-box-office-1234860683/

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, Felandria said:

Dune is going to lose some PLFs to Last Night In Soho, though.

 

14 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

https://deadline.com/2021/10/dune-weekend-box-office-1234860683/

 

[titanic2187]

Actually Dune is the first movie in a while that came in above estimate this much since?? I remember most of major opening have their Sunday overestimated eventually. 

 

Also, aside from boring Fri, Saturday and Sunday hold is actually quite good. Unfortunately the horrible walk-ups in Fri basically seal the deal just how much Dune can go from there. Easily 50m-55m opening and 150m total without HBO max like Mad Max.

[von Kenni]

19 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

https://deadline.com/2021/10/dune-weekend-box-office-1234860683/

 

Until Nov 5th time to harvest the spice in triple shifts. The 11% Canada share adds to the legs for 2nd weekend as well as the Halloween weekend without major new competition. Plus, when Deadline says that it's definitely at least -60%, it's definitely not, like it wasn't over -30% on Sunday.

 

Interesting to see the HBO Max numbers from WB (however they tell them) and Samba TV as a controller.

[Eric Prime]

 

Ohhhh that header. Love to see it!

[Krissykins]

1.9m for Dune Thurs-Sun according to Samba:

 

https://variety.com/vip/data-dune-opening-weekend-hbo-max-viewership-topped-justice-league-in-the-heights-1235096964/

[von Kenni]

8 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

1.9m for Dune Thurs-Sun according to Samba:

 

https://variety.com/vip/data-dune-opening-weekend-hbo-max-viewership-topped-justice-league-in-the-heights-1235096964/

Solid or even great numbers there. Lower than TSS, GvK, Mortal Kombat but higher than many. Probably more felt "must see in theaters" + didn't have pandemia scares as with the earlier releases and doesn't take as much hit in the box office, but also reflects the GA appeal as a new and more niche IP as the bigger HBO Max releases.

 

Well, safe to say that WB's HBO Max threshold crossed (although not seeing new subscribers...) for the sequel.

[famicommander]

As I said all along, Suicide Squad and HBO Max were a perfect storm. 

 

DC Comics content makes up the largest chunk of HBO Max original content. Every DC Comics fan in the US already had HBO Max long before The Suicide Squad hit theaters.

[von Kenni]

3 minutes ago, famicommander said:

As I said all along, Suicide Squad and HBO Max were a perfect storm. 

 

DC Comics content makes up the largest chunk of HBO Max original content. Every DC Comics fan in the US already had HBO Max long before The Suicide Squad hit theaters.

Yeah, we can compare Dune's US & UK legs to get clues what's the difference between DaD & solely theatrical. On another thread I had these comps too highlighting your TSS point:

 

Multiplier comparisons for domestic DaD & UK theatrical (not sure if pandemic affected US or UK more at these times...):

 

TSS Aug 6th US 2.13 / UK 4.3 July 30th

Conjuring June 4th US 2.72 / UK 3.35 May 28th

[famicommander]

Probably a huge reason WB was eager to push The Batman out of 2021. The Batman would probably have drawn zero new HBO Max subscribers, yet HBO Max would've severely eaten into the movie's box office take.

Edited October 25, 2021 by famicommander

[titanic2187]

28 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

1.9m for Dune Thurs-Sun according to Samba:

 

https://variety.com/vip/data-dune-opening-weekend-hbo-max-viewership-topped-justice-league-in-the-heights-1235096964/

Actually not that far higher than C3 (1.6m) and lower than SJ (2.1m). If WB really base their sequel or not decision on HBO max, this isn't great omen since SJ, TSS and MK all have higher viewership than dune but no news on sequel. Luckily os numbers are good.

 

Assuming 10% of the household would have gone to theater if without HBO max, that is 190k household and take 1-2 people from each household, that is 285k attendance which translate to $3.5m box office gross at bare minimum on opening weekend. 

 

After all ,the marketing pushing people to see it on the biggest possible screen seem works

Edited October 25, 2021 by titanic2187

[famicommander]

1 minute ago, titanic2187 said:

Actually not that far higher than C3 (1.6m) and lower than SJ (2.1m). If WB really base their sequel or not decision on HBO max, this isn't great omen since SJ, TSS and MK all have higher viewership than dune but no news on sequel.

 

Assuming 10% of the household would have gone to theater if without HBO max, that is 190k household and take 1-2 people from each household, that is 285k attendance which translate to $3.5m box office gross at bare minimum on opening weekend. 

Variety said last month that WB is still looking to do Mortal Kombat sequels:

https://variety.com/2021/film/box-office/dune-hbo-max-release-1235062312/

[titanic2187]

By the way, Is sunday some regional holiday? Why there are many films have better sunday hold than last week's?