Weekend Thread (10/22-24) | Dune 41M OW. French Dispatch 1.35M. Timothee can't be stopped!

[famicommander]

29 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

With Dune opening at $40m, what are our expectations for The Matrix Resurrections?

[titanic2187]

2 minutes ago, babz06 said:

40-50m ow? 

I don't think so, Dune has advantage of taking all IMAX/PLF screens for itself but Matrix doesn't stand much chance against FFH. Given the business now is so IMAX/PLF heavy, without those screen at hand could really hit the upper limit for Matrix. 

[grey ghost]

32 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

With Dune opening at $40m, what are our expectations for The Matrix Resurrections?

 

Well that's tricky since it opens on a Wednesday.

[WrathOfHan]

6 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

Well that's tricky since it opens on a Wednesday.

I'd expect something on par with GVK's 5 day if not slightly higher. Christmas will help the blow of less PLF showtimes.

[John Marston]

 

 

 

it’s opened pretty much everywhere so that seems too generous. 350m is the target I’d say 

[karlleng]

140m domestic finish for NTTD?

[Kalo]

$40m for a film, everyone thought was a risky prospect. even before the pandemic. that is available for Free on streaming is pretty impressive. All WB has to do is make that sequel and I will forgive them... mostly. but honestly this could have opened to $55m+ maybe even $60m without MAX. that is pretty great for a non sequel by an arthouse director. 

[Elessar]

Glad Dune hit 40m. Given the circumstances it's a solid start.

[WrathOfHan]

Dune:

Remainder of this week: 14.9M (55M Total)

Oct 29: 23.6M (9.1M weekdays, 87.7M Total)

Nov 4: 10.9M (4.6M weekdays, 103.2M Total)

Nov 11: 7.7M (2.4M weekdays, 113.3M Total)

Nov 18: 3.5M (1.4M weekdays, 118.2M Total)

Nov 25: 1.5M (400k weekdays, 120.1M Total)

Final Total: 123M (3.07x)

 

There will be two weekends where Dune gets hit the worst: Eternals and Ghostbusters. It might be able to keep a fair amount of screens over Thanksgiving since there aren't many films releasing. I don't think a 3x is impossible.

 

[Kalo]

20 minutes ago, Nikostar said:

More like WOM is killing it.

Yeah it wouldn't have had much better hold without it Horror films with poor WoM dropped 65-70% thier second weekend before DAD streaming. and Peacock is not that popular. I have to free peacock and that is where most are at, they have plenty with that.  not much incentive to add the paid subscription. especially since Horror movies like this are better to see with friends in the theater (which I did). I didn't hate it, but it was definitely a disappointment. probably will feel unnecessary after Halloween Ends releases (please be the last one!)  

[titanic2187]

5 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

 

it’s opened pretty much everywhere so that seems too generous. 350m is the target I’d say 

Is she high or what? ? This is coming in Tenet's range reasonably and i think 400m is pretty dead by now.

 

Tenet did like >120m in East Asia (China+ HK+ Korea+ Japan +Taiwan but Dune will likely fall in 70m, Was hoping NA to close this gap with 50m surplus over Tenet but seem like it is a big ask now with 40m opening. The rest of the market run fairly close to Tenet like France and Russia overperforming over Tenet but cancelled out by Netherlands and ME. So 350m sound more like realistic goal to me since most of the already opened market didn't really display some crazy hold either.  

 

 

 

 

[Kalo]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

Dune:

Remainder of this week: 14.9M (55M Total)

Oct 29: 23.6M (9.1M weekdays, 87.7M Total)

Nov 4: 10.9M (4.6M weekdays, 103.2M Total)

Nov 11: 7.7M (2.4M weekdays, 113.3M Total)

Nov 18: 3.5M (1.4M weekdays, 118.2M Total)

Nov 25: 1.5M (400k weekdays, 120.1M Total)

Final Total: 123M (3.07x)

 

There will be two weekends where Dune gets hit the worst: Eternals and Ghostbusters. It might be able to keep a fair amount of screens over Thanksgiving since there aren't many films releasing. I don't think a 3x is impossible.

 

 

That second week drop is incredibly easy on it. I really can't see it holding much better than 50% with it being on HBO MAX. The best we can hope for is $100-$110m with that $40m opening imo. I hope I'm wrong though.

[ThomasNicole]

$ 300M is locked, now let's wait for the sequel announcement and the date.

 

I would put it on December 2023

[narniadis]

15 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Dune:

Remainder of this week: 14.9M (55M Total)

Oct 29: 23.6M (9.1M weekdays, 87.7M Total)

Nov 4: 10.9M (4.6M weekdays, 103.2M Total)

Nov 11: 7.7M (2.4M weekdays, 113.3M Total)

Nov 18: 3.5M (1.4M weekdays, 118.2M Total)

Nov 25: 1.5M (400k weekdays, 120.1M Total)

Final Total: 123M (3.07x)

 

There will be two weekends where Dune gets hit the worst: Eternals and Ghostbusters. It might be able to keep a fair amount of screens over Thanksgiving since there aren't many films releasing. I don't think a 3x is impossible.

 

Nah, and your hold for next weekend would be unlikely even IF the 5.1m in previews wasnt a factor. Its falling over 50% (minus previews) and next Sunday will be hard on it given the demographics of the film and the lack of Halloween tie in. 

[SnokesLegs]

38 minutes ago, Nikostar said:

More like WOM is killing it.

Yeah, even though I enjoyed Halloween Kills, it’s definitely the WOM that’s killing it’s legs rather than piracy or Peacock. It hasn’t been received anywhere near as warmly as the 2018 film.

 

9 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

$ 300M is locked, now let's wait for the sequel announcement and the date.

 

I would put it on December 2023

Opposite the first Star Wars film in 4 years? I take it you don’t want to see Dune Messiah!

[von Kenni]

12 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Dune:

Remainder of this week: 14.9M (55M Total)

Oct 29: 23.6M (9.1M weekdays, 87.7M Total)

Nov 4: 10.9M (4.6M weekdays, 103.2M Total)

Nov 11: 7.7M (2.4M weekdays, 113.3M Total)

Nov 18: 3.5M (1.4M weekdays, 118.2M Total)

Nov 25: 1.5M (400k weekdays, 120.1M Total)

Final Total: 123M (3.07x)

 

There will be two weekends where Dune gets hit the worst: Eternals and Ghostbusters. It might be able to keep a fair amount of screens over Thanksgiving since there aren't many films releasing. I don't think a 3x is impossible.

 

Yeah, 3x definitely possible and would be very surprised if somehow got under $100m (2.5x)

 

Here are some comparisons:

 

1) Sci-fi

Interstellar 4.0

Martian 4.2

Ad Astra 2.6

 

Dune has Interstellar & Martian level WOM plus bigger and more engaged fanbase (watching multiple times and luring friends in cinema) but even Ad Astra made 2.6 with new IP, being a bad movie, and having WOM accordingly.

 

2) Hybrids

BW 2.3 (DaD Disney+)

GvK 3.2 (DaD HBO Max)

Jungle Cruise 3.3 (DaD Disney+)

 

Dune has better WOM than these hybrid releases although they are more GA friendly, but definitely going to do better than BW like during this OW (BW true Fri multiplier was 2.56 and Dune gets 2.82 close to NTTD's 2.88).

 

3) Poor man's NTTD

Spectre 2.8

 

Dune has younger demo than Spectre, better WOM, and has followed NTTD's steps for OW, so fair to estimate getting that 2.8 at least and probably more.

 

-> Eternals are going to take away IMAXs but until that Dune has relatively low competition. WOM is great so not expecting any dramatic cuts in legs that would screw the overall multiplier. Probably between 2.8-3.2. So somewhere between $112m-$128m.

[Inceptionzq]

11 minutes ago, SnokesLegs said:

Opposite the first Star Wars film in 4 years? I take it you don’t want to see Dune Messiah!

Yeah I think I’d put it at the beginning of October or Thanksgiving

[Elessar]

I just hope Dune reaches 100m. MAX might have a negative impact on repeat viewings and only 2 weeks later another Marvel ****** will take away all its premium screens which will hit it hard.

[Porthos]

40 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I would put it on December 2023

 

27 minutes ago, SnokesLegs said:

Opposite the first Star Wars film in 4 years? I take it you don’t want to see Dune Messiah!

 

I wouldn't have quite put it that way myself, but given how PLF heavy Dune is, putting up against a family friendly four quad seems... unwise, even with holiday legs.

 

Even a week before (or later for that matter) seems unwise given the PLF situation.

[Valonqar]

YAY Dune!