Weekend Thread (10/22-24) | Dune 41M OW. French Dispatch 1.35M. Timothee can't be stopped!

[Valonqar]

I see no reason for WB not to make Dune Pt 2. It will hit the established minimum for the sequel (300M WW) and is likely going to get Picture, Director and bucketload of techs with the Oscars. So WB would lose more if it didn't make it (better boxoffice, a chance to win the Oscar LOTR style). 

[von Kenni]

Ok, went to do something else and got my head out of the trenches staring Dune's numbers and setting the fandom aside. Seeing the forest for the trees and refreshing my memory from the time working with subscription, content, tech, LA & SF realm some years back.

 

Of course announcing after the OW makes sense and that's what they should do to get that HBO Max promo happening but also at the same time marketing these franchises (brands) like the Mortal Kombats, Wonder Woman & TSS that are mentioned here, and now Dune. It's the right move to do. Sad that it happens with a cinematic movie like Dune, but in the long-run might be the correct decision even for it. In short term it's a ballsy move, but sound strategy.

 

Movie business has always been more or less bad business as a business. You work your ass off in pre-, during, and post-production, invest upfront, and try to build an audience from a scratch all taking years and years time. Very high risks and generally small payoffs (blockbusters are rare). That's what it especially used to be. You invest and work hard to get people watch it once and then starting all over, where as e.g. in gaming or streaming subscriptions you have people coming back to the product even daily becoming loyal to the brand. You don't loose your audience every time you offer them something.

 

It was a matter of time that movie franchises and sequels came so popular to create those brands and loyalty in movie industry from outside influences and pressure. But even those are secondary in the long run if you can create a streaming subscription service that people can use daily or even multiple times per day, where they use the same brand (Netflix, HBO Max, Disney+, ...).

 

So, yes, looks like a sound strategy and if execution works it'll payoff. We're just in the midst of these changing business models & structures. There'll be pendulum movements either direction but I doubt that cinema is going anywhere. Changing for sure but not going away.

 

Yeah, they most likely had the internal greenlight after last month openings, and waited to announce it like you guys expected.

 

Actually, respect for WB & AT&T for these ballsy moves.

 

Thanks @AJG for getting my head out of my a**.

[Porthos]

Department of Trivial Matters, but the current Audience Score over at RT for Dune is pretty good:

 

Verified Audience: 92% | 4.6/5

All Audience:         88% | 4.4/5

 

Not as big of a split between Verified and All as one might have thought, given some of The Discourse out there.  Don't know what it bodes for legs, given HBO Max.  But should be good for the sequel that seems fairly likely.

 

NB:  Yes, I more than most folks know the usefulness of self-selected online ratings.  Still, can be somewhat interpreted, especially if one is aware of extenuating circumstances.

[ViewerAnon]

I would caution people again to remember it’s not just a WB decision - Legendary owns the film rights to Dune. Is Legendary willing to put up another $120M for a sequel based on the numbers DUNE has put up, assuming the sequel’s budget stays at around $165M? If not, is WB willing to put more skin in the game?

 

DETECTIVE PIKACHU, another Legendary production that went to Warner Bros, grossed $433M on a $150M budget and they chose not to go forward with a sequel for reasons like these.

 

(I believe DUNE 2 is happening, I just think it’s important to remember this isn’t just a question of WB saying “Yes, make a new one!”)

 

 

[grim22]

 

 

[ACSlater]

Dune time.

[ThomasNicole]

6 minutes ago, ViewerAnon said:

I would caution people again to remember it’s not just a WB decision - Legendary owns the film rights to Dune. Is Legendary willing to put up another $120M for a sequel based on the numbers DUNE has put up, assuming the sequel’s budget stays at around $165M? If not, is WB willing to put more skin in the game?

 

DETECTIVE PIKACHU, another Legendary production that went to Warner Bros, grossed $433M on a $150M budget and they chose not to go forward with a sequel for reasons like these.

 

(I believe DUNE 2 is happening, I just think it’s important to remember this isn’t just a question of WB saying “Yes, make a new one!”)

 

 

Iirc, Legendary got most part of their money back from WB for Godzilla and Dune when they put it on streaming to compensate things.

[ViewerAnon]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

Iirc, Legendary got most part of their money back from WB for Godzilla and Dune when they put it on streaming to compensate things.

 

Where did you see terms? My understanding is that Legendary gets to keep all of the Chinese gross as compensation for the HBO Max release. But I know negotiations went forever so it would’ve been smart for Legendary to get a sweeter deal than that.

 

Going back to my original post, I think the difference between this and DETECTIVE PIKACHU is that WB didn’t have a streaming service with a rabid need for content then, and making good on their “promise” for a DUNE sequel looks good (and shows good faith) to filmmakers still annoyed after last year’s decision.

[dudalb]

2 hours ago, ViewerAnon said:

I would caution people again to remember it’s not just a WB decision - Legendary owns the film rights to Dune. Is Legendary willing to put up another $120M for a sequel based on the numbers DUNE has put up, assuming the sequel’s budget stays at around $165M? If not, is WB willing to put more skin in the game?

 

DETECTIVE PIKACHU, another Legendary production that went to Warner Bros, grossed $433M on a $150M budget and they chose not to go forward with a sequel for reasons like these.

 

(I believe DUNE 2 is happening, I just think it’s important to remember this isn’t just a question of WB saying “Yes, make a new one!”)

 

 

Legendary has been burned a couple of times before with making borderline sequels, Pacific Rim 2 being the most notorous.

There is now way yo can really do DUne 2 on the cheap,the way they did with PR 2.

I think  Dune 2 will probably happen...underline probably..but beyond that I don;t know. Maybe some HBS Streaming channel productions? GOd knows there are enough Dune sequels out there in print..theough the quality, sad to say, has not been that good overall.

[Napoleon]

Bloomberg reported in January that Warner's negotiation with talent for compensation was that they would receive their bonuses at half the point they were entitled to initially (meaning: if you would get a bonus when your movie reached $300 million, now you will get that bonus if it hits $150 million). The deal with Legendary could have been based on that same principle, that movies released at the same day on HBO Max would make half of what they would do if they were theatrical exclusives. If Dune is making $300 million worldwide Legendary could potentially be getting paid what WB would owe them if it was doing $600 million worldwide.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Watched Dune on MAX this afternoon as I had to miss my original screening yesterday on account of me being sick. Really enjoyed it, some minor qualms aside.

 

Think it’s really gonna benefit in franchise terms from being somewhat of “tweener” in pandemic times. The MAX/theater day and date and pandemic gives it a reasonable excuse for not performing well enough to the level that would normally justify a sequel. But it is also not anywhere close to an outright bomb; you could reasonably see under different, more normal circumstances the film playing bigger than it has (it appears it has been well received from both fans and, most importantly, the GA). That being said, there is a chance it is actually playing somewhat close to it’s normal world “ceiling,” due to the hardcore fans and the must see it in theaters hype. Additionally, WB likely wants to keep Denis happy, especially after what happened with Nolan.

 

Regardless I personally would love to see a Part Two, not a Dune fan prior to watching but I’ll be reading the book soon.

[Legion Again]

7 hours ago, famicommander said:

If I told you an MCU movie had a villain with a similar powerset, a disposable army of non-humans to slaughter at their leisure, and a gigantic CGI skybeam in the third act, that could literally be any of a dozen movies.

It literally could not. I know people like to meme but this description matches exactly 0 (zero!) MCU movies. If you squint you could count AoU. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, Let There Be Legion said:

It literally could not. I know people like to meme but this description matches exactly 0 (zero!) MCU movies. If you squint you could count AoU. 

Nah, even if you squint I don't see anything in AoU's third act that can be characterized as a "skybeam"

[Legion Again]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

Nah, even if you squint I don't see anything in AoU's third act that can be characterized as a "skybeam"

You’ve gotta squint hard but the thing on the bottom of sokovia  that holds it up is sometimes beamlike visually (really more of a jet though) and technically in the sky.   
 

Also have to squint on the villain with similar power set though. He has similarities to Iron Man and Vision, but the protagonists are an endsemble so it’s pretty cheap compared to canonical examples like Iron Monger, Abomination, Yellowjacket, Killmonger, etc

[charlie Jatinder]

6 hours ago, excel1 said:

Watching a film at home is akin to watching a concert of sporting event at home. Is it cool? Sure. Is it 100x better to be there with the crowd? Yes.

I will 100% watch a sporting event at home.

[charlie Jatinder]

6 hours ago, Elessar said:

Some users here are VERY certain that Dune gets the sequel, it's almost as if they are trying to will it into existence. I truly hope they are right.

The film is a Blockbuster in Europe. Should easily get a sequel.

[Cap]

3 hours ago, Let There Be Legion said:

It literally could not. I know people like to meme but this description matches exactly 0 (zero!) MCU movies. If you squint you could count AoU. 

okay, but cAn it be? Cause that sounds like a DOOM movie, and we deserve a good Doctor Doom flick. 

[charlie Jatinder]

HK - 6.1

NTTD - 5.1

V2 - 4.3

Ron - 3

SC - 0.95

TFD - 0.45

[Legion Again]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

HK - 6.1

NTTD - 5.1

V2 - 4.3

Ron - 3

SC - 0.95

TFD - 0.45

Wknd ests:

HWK 14 (bit weak Sat)

NTTD 11.8

V2 9.4 (strong Sat)

Ron 7.3

SC 2.07

TFD 1.35
 

[fmpro]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

HK - 6.1

NTTD - 5.1

V2 - 4.3

Ron - 3

SC - 0.95

TFD - 0.45

No Dune number?