Weekend Thread (10/22-24) | Dune 41M OW. French Dispatch 1.35M. Timothee can't be stopped!

[titanic2187]

13 minutes ago, Elessar said:

I just hope Dune reaches 100m. MAX might have a negative impact on repeat viewings and only 2 weeks later another Marvel ****** will take away all its premium screens which will hit it hard.

I think Dune probably have its 2nd weekend hold better than any subsequent week. 2.5x is a big ask for max release, especially when that 40m is yet firm depending Sunday.

 

Never expect 39 and 40m difference can be this big impact when that also determine if the film can hit 100m. This is GvK all over again. 

[Jonwo]

I imagine if Dune part II is greenlit, it'll be released October or November 2023 rather than December. 

[von Kenni]

I quickly run through all major international markets and came to the following Dune WW estimates:

 

DOM 110-130 (see the post on the previous page)

China 40-50

INT excl. China 220-230

 

Total $370-410m so $400 isn't out of reach but needs DOM & China have good enough legs.

 

Internationally biggest variables: legs in UK, South-Korea & Japan, and the Dec 2nd launch in Australia which brought $10.2m for BR2049 but in this context can well underperform.

[Hatebox]

Hard to have a strong opinion of that number. Pretty good in the circumstances, but I would also understand the studio dragging its feet on a sequel with anywhere close to a similar budget.

[Starphanluke]

Good opening for Dune considering all the circumstances (and considering the fact that it's y'know... Dune. Which can be a hard sell). 

 

Hate to be a downer, but I don't see how it reaches $100M domestic. Have there been any HBOMax movies that have had that strong of legs? I could see $80-90m final. It will plummet once Eternals takes all the premium formats.

 

No matter, part 2 feels inevitable. Dune as a franchise has momentum right now).

Edited October 24, 2021 by Starphanluke

[Napoleon]

1 hour ago, Kalo said:

Yeah it wouldn't have had much better hold without it Horror films with poor WoM dropped 65-70% thier second weekend before DAD streaming. and Peacock is not that popular. I have to free peacock and that is where most are at, they have plenty with that.  not much incentive to add the paid subscription. especially since Horror movies like this are better to see with friends in the theater (which I did). I didn't hate it, but it was definitely a disappointment. probably will feel unnecessary after Halloween Ends releases (please be the last one!)  

The Halloween franchise will never end, not after the previous film opened at $76m. Even if the next film bombs, Universal would look at that 2018 opening and try to exploit it again in just a few years. Our beloved franchises will go on long after we're dead. Once the studios master the art of riviving actors digitally, no one will be able to stop them. Jamie Lee Curtis will still be fighting Michael Myers in 100 years from now.

[babz06]

Dune will probably had a good-ish drop next weekend it has no competition, but Eternals will hit it hard because it's taking those premium formats, so legging it out to 100m is going to be a tough task. 

[von Kenni]

9 minutes ago, Hatebox said:

Hard to have a strong opinion of that number. Pretty good in the circumstances, but I would also understand the studio dragging its feet on a sequel with anywhere close to a similar budget.

Nah, these numbers are great, especially when accompanied with the HBO Max numbers (hard to imagine they would bomb). In the context of DaD release, still not clear from the pandemic (differs by country), and that they are investing to start a new franchise, this is great.

 

Batman Begins made $374m WW /w $150m budget

The Dark Knight $1B WW /w $185m budget

The Dark Knight Rises $1.1B WW /w $250m budget

 

They dream of Dune the same and there's no reason they couldn't pull it off. They have their Nolan but it needs other stars to align too. 

 

Dune Part 1

Dune Part 2

Dune Messiah

 

...and all the possible spin-offs, add-ons, that you can imagine from streaming series (one in pre-production already), gaming, comic books, toys, VR experiences, theme parks, and what nots they come up in the upcoming years for the foreseeable future. That's what they are aiming for and Dune Part 1 going through the crucial threshold of not being a total flop is enough, and anything above is great, meaning how it is right now going. 

[Hatebox]

Just now, von Kenni said:

Nah, these numbers are great, especially when accompanied with the HBO Max numbers (hard to imagine they would bomb). In the context of DaD release, still not clear from the pandemic (differs by country), and that they are investing to start a new franchise, this is great.

 

Batman Begins made $374m WW /w $150m budget

The Dark Knight $1B WW /w $185m budget

The Dark Knight Rises $1.1B WW /w $250m budget

 

 

Yeah, I'm going to go out on a limb and say the next film won't have BB > TDK bump.

[von Kenni]

12 minutes ago, Hatebox said:

 

 

Yeah, I'm going to go out on a limb and say the next film won't have BB > TDK bump.

and it doesn't need to have. If it makes anything above $450m-500m with Part 1 like budget it's good. The size of the bump can be debated and having TDK type of bump is as I said, something that everything would have to go perfect, so a tough sell. If I would bet now, I would bet the same as you. But could it be $500m, $600m, or $700m. Sure. which makes it already a great business.

Edited October 24, 2021 by von Kenni

[von Kenni]

22 minutes ago, Starphanluke said:

Have there been any HBOMax movies that have had that strong of legs? I could see $80-90m final.

 

Check my post on the previous page.

 

2) Hybrids

BW 2.3 (DaD Disney+)

GvK 3.2 (DaD HBO Max)

Jungle Cruise 3.3 (DaD Disney+)

 

Dune has better WOM than these hybrid releases although they are more GA friendly, but definitely going to do better than BW like during this OW (BW true Fri multiplier was 2.56 and Dune gets 2.82 close to NTTD's 2.88).

 

With GvK numbers would be $128m.

[narniadis]

You are also talking about a film that will be fortunate to make in total what Batman Begins made in its adjusted 5-day opening. 

Us old timers aren't trying to pop a balloon but also trying to get reality a fairer play than some of yall have been on. 

*edit for commentary*

Your comments about GA friendly play a significant factor into this. You cannot use a family film (JungleC) to compare with something more akin to BladeR49, etc. The significant IMAX/PLF % combined with the lack of younger audiences in the demos also shows a problem when it comes to legs in the current pandemic era. This isn't 2019 or before. 100m as a final total will be a big win and its not a slam dunk. 

Edited October 24, 2021 by narniadis

[babz06]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

 

I wouldn't have quite put it that way myself, but given how PLF heavy Dune is, putting up against a family friendly four quad seems... unwise, even with holiday legs.

 

Even a week before (or later for that matter) seems unwise given the PLF situation.

I would keep Dune in October as well, its the perfect fall blockbuster and similar titles have performed well in this spot. 

[Ronin46]

2 minutes ago, narniadis said:

You are also talking about a film that will be fortunate to make in total what Batman Begins made in its adjusted 5-day opening. 

Us old timers aren't trying to pop a balloon but also trying to get reality a fairer play than some of yall have been on. 

 

They joined just to talk about Dune. Its all harmless and they are not going after anyone or trolling so let them enjoy it I say.  

[von Kenni]

6 minutes ago, narniadis said:

You are also talking about a film that will be fortunate to make in total what Batman Begins made in its adjusted 5-day opening. 

Us old timers aren't trying to pop a balloon but also trying to get reality a fairer play than some of yall have been on. 

I'm not sure if I follow this. Sure that 5-day opening in today would be around $100m and total WW over $500m but the point was to showcase what the logic/model is behind Dune Part 1 and aiming for that franchise. Batman is a good example for it reminding how BB wasn't that big of a success in pure numbers when considering its budget and overall WW at the time but how TDK and TDKR bumps got the profits way up.

 

Nobody here is probably suggesting that Dune would have the same sized bump. Highly improbable. But could Dune Part 2 & Messiah make considerably better than Part 1. Sure, if the quality and marketing is consistent like with Nolan's Batmans.

[CoolioD1]

1 hour ago, Hatebox said:

Hard to have a strong opinion of that number. Pretty good in the circumstances, but I would also understand the studio dragging its feet on a sequel with anywhere close to a similar budget.

not sure I agree but it would be very funny if the movie with all the action has half the budget of the movie with all the set up. i'd like to see it.

[Sano]

23 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

 

Check my post on the previous page.

 

2) Hybrids

BW 2.3 (DaD Disney+)

GvK 3.2 (DaD HBO Max)

Jungle Cruise 3.3 (DaD Disney+)

 

Dune has better WOM than these hybrid releases although they are more GA friendly, but definitely going to do better than BW like during this OW (BW true Fri multiplier was 2.56 and Dune gets 2.82 close to NTTD's 2.88).

 

With GvK numbers would be $128m.

The thing is that GvK had good legs everywhere and made about 38% of its WW total from China. Dune looks to have no legs in China unfortunately. I think you're overshooting a tad, but we'll see. My guess is around 340-360 million WW.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

1 hour ago, Jonwo said:

I imagine if Dune part II is greenlit, it'll be released October or November 2023 rather than December. 

There’s no way. WB already has too much in 2023 and then probably Barbie now. 2024 is likelier. 

[von Kenni]

11 minutes ago, Sano said:

The thing is that GvK had good legs everywhere and made about 38% of its WW total from China. Dune looks to have no legs in China unfortunately. I think you're overshooting a tad, but we'll see. My guess is around 340-360 million WW.

Maybe talking two different things at the same time here. On the previous page I went into more detail for the DOM multiplier and estimated it to 2.8-3.2 with other comps than just these hybrid releases. GvK's target audience was more in East Asia where we have good data on it but Europe was mostly locked down and not its core target. Then for GvK there are other questions like how many owned HBO Max then compared to now, what was the competition then (no Eternals for sure), etc.

 

For BW we have better data WW and especially in Europe. Dune has shown there consistently better legs than BW and also in DOM OW so hard to see it hit just BW's 2.3. Dune needs 2.5 to get to $100m. Not a slam dunk like narniadis said above but I'd see it more likely than not.

 

IMAX/PLF skew will definitely play a role but it didn't stop France or other European countries having good legs for Dune. WOM is great like with Interstellar and Martian that had 4 and 4.2 but of course we're not going to get anything near that with HBO Max release and other matters discussed here. Even to get that 3.2 the WOM really needs to work well and fans go see it multiple times taking their friends to see it. But hard to see it either under 2.5 with the data we have.

[famicommander]

HBO Max movie ratios

 

Tom and Jerry - 3.262

GvK - 3.180

Conjuring 3 -2.720

Space Jam 2 - 2.271

Suicide Squad - 2.129

Mortal Kombat - 1.811

 

I can't see it doing as poorly as Space Jam 2, but probably not as well as GvK either.