⊃∪∩⪽ Part II | March 1, 2024 | Reactions drop February 15, reviews February 21 | Zendaya for our next C-3P0

[IchwanBigBrother]

23 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Zero percent chance it wins. The Academy has a steep genre bias.

There is no basis for this view anymore. Especially after ROTK and EEAAO won, along with THE SHAPE OF WATER. You can also count SILENCE OF THE LAMBS as a win for horror/thriller. If PART TWO is enough of a conversation piece and has lasting commercial success it will get major nominations and a push across the finish line. There will be strong competition, of course. 

[SpiderByte]

53 minutes ago, IchwanBigBrother said:

There is no basis for this view anymore. Especially after ROTK and EEAAO won, along with THE SHAPE OF WATER. You can also count SILENCE OF THE LAMBS as a win for horror/thriller. If PART TWO is enough of a conversation piece and has lasting commercial success it will get major nominations and a push across the finish line. There will be strong competition, of course. 

Those are like the only three in the last 20 years.

[IchwanBigBrother]

17 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Those are like the only three in the last 20 years.

I don't see how that signifies anything. The number of sci fi, fantasy, horror, comic book films which get nominations to begin with is not big because most of them don't deserve to. Of the ones which get nominated and win major categories, naturally the number will be smaller. The point is the psychological barrier for academy members to give their highest nominations and awards to a genre film is largely gone. The Academy is younger and more diverse than it once was, and they tend to award popular success to a point. So if DUNE PART ONE can get 10 nominations and win 6, and PART TWO is a better and more popular film, it may have a very decent chance. 

[WittyUsername]

1 hour ago, IchwanBigBrother said:

There is no basis for this view anymore. Especially after ROTK and EEAAO won, along with THE SHAPE OF WATER. You can also count SILENCE OF THE LAMBS as a win for horror/thriller. If PART TWO is enough of a conversation piece and has lasting commercial success it will get major nominations and a push across the finish line. There will be strong competition, of course. 

RotK shouldn’t be used as if it’s a recent example. That was 20 years ago, and pretty much everyone saw it as an outlier that was basically an award for the entire trilogy, due to what a big achievement it was. 

[Lucas]

Some comparisons with other recent-ish blockbusters that smashed the RT percentage and/or average rating at this point (122 reviews)

 

Dune Part 2

98% - 8.6/10

 

Oppenheimer

93% - 8.8/10

 

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning

98% - 8.1/10

(MI7 then continued up to 99% and didn't get a third rotten until way later)

 

Top Gun: Maverick

97% - 8.3/10

 

The Batman

91% - 8.2/10

 

Spider-Man: No Way Home

95% - 7.9/10

 

Avengers: Endgame

97% - 8.2/10

 

Mission: Impossible - Fallout

98% - 8.4/10

 

Black Panther

98% - 8.2/10

[titanic2187]

3 minutes ago, Lucas said:

Some comparisons with other recent-ish blockbusters that smashed the RT percentage and/or average rating at this point (122 reviews)

 

Dune Part 2

98% - 8.6/10

 

Oppenheimer

93% - 8.8/10

 

 

 

I think Oppenheimer is 8.6/10 too like Dune 2.

[IchwanBigBrother]

15 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

RotK shouldn’t be used as if it’s a recent example. That was 20 years ago, and pretty much everyone saw it as an outlier that was basically an award for the entire trilogy, due to what a big achievement it was. 

I don't see what recency has to do with it, not that 20 years is that long anyway. This is AMPAS we're talking about - if anything once they establish a new precedent, they love to refer to it as often as possible if it'll increase their own popularity. They worry about diminishing ratings and reputation, and one way they counter it is by awarding films that are also commercially popular at least some of the time.

 

The ROTK example if anything also works in DUNE's favor, because by awarding PART TWO more major categories they would effectively be awarding its predecessor as one megamovie, a la LOTR.

 

On the other hand, some voters could make the excuse of waiting for DUNE MESSIAH...which would be a brainscrambler since no one knows how that one will be received. PART TWO always had higher expectations placed on it. 

[Lucas]

1 minute ago, titanic2187 said:

 

I think Oppenheimer is 8.6/10 too like Dune 2.

It is now after nearly 500 reviews, not after 122.

[JustLurking]

1 minute ago, titanic2187 said:

 

I think Oppenheimer is 8.6/10 too like Dune 2.

He's comparing where they were ard this point

[Valonqar]

Metacritic is more signficant for awards than RT. 

[Ozymandias]

The 2000s was the last relevant decade the Oscars had with Gladiator, LOTR, Departed, and No Country For Old Men.  Nothing of note has won since.  Nobody cares about the Oscars anymore except cinephiles and some twitter personalities.  DUNE 2 isn't winning, not depressing enough, same with Oppenheimer.

[Lucas]

1 minute ago, Ozymandias said:

The 2000s was the last relevant decade the Oscars had with Gladiator, LOTR, Departed, and No Country For Old Men.  Nothing of note has won since.  Nobody cares about the Oscars anymore except cinephiles and some twitter personalities.  DUNE 2 isn't winning, not depressing enough, same with Oppenheimer.

Oppenheimer is winning.

[Mephariel]

13 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

The 2000s was the last relevant decade the Oscars had with Gladiator, LOTR, Departed, and No Country For Old Men.  Nothing of note has won since.  Nobody cares about the Oscars anymore except cinephiles and some twitter personalities.  DUNE 2 isn't winning, not depressing enough, same with Oppenheimer.

 

I don't blame that on the Academy, I blame the filmmakers. The 2000s was when top filmmakers made truly great blockbuster films. Since 2010, 90% of the blockbuster films are non-offensive, CGI fest comic book movies. Hopefully filmmakers like Nolan and Villeneuve, along with the decline of superhero films, can get the industry back on track.

[Derpity]

20 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

The 2000s was the last relevant decade the Oscars had with Gladiator, LOTR, Departed, and No Country For Old Men.  Nothing of note has won since.  Nobody cares about the Oscars anymore except cinephiles and some twitter personalities.  DUNE 2 isn't winning, not depressing enough, same with Oppenheimer.

 

Oppie is obv going to win and also it's kind of depressing lol.

[ChipDerby]

If Oppenheimer wins, Dune 2 has just as likely a chance.

[IchwanBigBrother]

24 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Metacritic is more signficant for awards than RT. 

Do their scores correlate well with awards? Has anyone actually tried to analyze that? 

[IchwanBigBrother]

21 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

DUNE 2 isn't winning, not depressing enough

You might think differently based on some of the social and critical responses we've seen 😂

[Brainbug]

20 minutes ago, Lucas said:

Oppenheimer is winning.

 

Nah, that would be too good to be true. We know the Oscars. In the end, Green Book i mean Hurt Locker i mean The Zone of Interest will somehow win.

[WittyUsername]

As of now, the last Best Picture winner to cross the $100 million threshold was Argo. For context, the biggest Best Picture since then was Green Book. 

[IchwanBigBrother]

3 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

If Oppenheimer wins, Dune 2 has just as likely a chance.

Can you elaborate on this please? Not a leading question. I know about OPPENHEIMER and even read most of the book but still haven't seen it.