⊃∪∩⪽ Part II | March 1, 2024 | Reactions drop February 15, reviews February 21 | Zendaya for our next C-3P0

[SpiderByte]

On 2/23/2024 at 8:40 AM, Eric Web said:

 

😐 These studios really don't care anymore lmao

So they're just going full Nancy Kerrigan on this movies legs then

 

Though if it's like May that's not as bad but still.

[Speedorito]

1 hour ago, SpiderByte said:

So they're just going full Nancy Kerrigan on this movies legs then

 

Though if it's like May that's not as bad but still.

First three weeks of June is still technically Spring. That would be a pretty standard three month theatrical-exclusive window before it hits streaming.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Hans Zimmer’s score has dropped.

[von Kenni]

4 hours ago, SpiderByte said:

So they're just going full Nancy Kerrigan on this movies legs then

 

Though if it's like May that's not as bad but still.

 

The current rule of thumb with them is 90 days before HBO Max. Doesn't really effect domestically. 45 day wouldn't either much but it might have adverse effects on some international markets that open later or have slow burning dynamics. Also if they skip the VOD market outside HBO Max that sounds on face value as a bad option. All-in-all doesn't necessarily affect Dune profitability much. HBO Max paid $150m licensing fee for The Batman according to Deadline. Unless Zaslov have changed these internal dynamics, that's what Dune (Legendary and WB) will likely get with this WW BO trajectory, or close to that. They should have enough data to optimize these streams...

[Porthos]

I actually decided to bother to source the Hollywood Handle report, since it didn't deign to mention where the info came from.  Apparently it was directly from Zaslav in an earnings call.

 

Quote

UPDATE: At Warner Brothers Q4 earnings call, David Zaslav gave a brief update on the Dune: Part 2 streaming release date.

 

Zaslav says Dune 2 is expected on Max in the Spring of 2024,

 

One might notice the trailing comma there.  That's because *I* snipped some editorializing that frankly smacked of Confirmation Bias to me.

 

This was from an Earnings Call.  That means the colloquial/layman definition of "Spring" need not apply. Spring in this case literally does mean all the way through May and into late June.

 

Hell, because it was an earnings call and not a press release, can always be pushed back as it's "current intentions" and all that.  Not that I find that likely, mind.  

 

FWIW, late April/Early May does seem likely.  But only likely.

 

(as a matter of fact, I'd probably want to see the exact transcript and context before really giving that timeline)

 

Edited February 25 by Porthos

[MovieMagic]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

(as a matter of fact, I'd probably want to see the exact transcript and context before really giving that timeline)

 

I think I found the transcript here:

 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4672969-warner-bros-discovery-inc-wbd-q4-2023-earnings-call-transcript

 

 

[Porthos]

20 minutes ago, MovieMagic said:

I think I found the transcript here:

 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4672969-warner-bros-discovery-inc-wbd-q4-2023-earnings-call-transcript

 

 

 

 Thanks for that. 👍

 

Quote

And finally, we're excited to be refreshing and reigniting our content pipeline at Max. The fact is, the strikes really slowed down production. And we didn't have as much content as we wanted for Max. And we're now moving forward with a great slate. Our most recent series, True Detective: Night Country, starring Jodie Forster, was a real success, averaging over 12.5 million viewers, the highest season ever for the series. Looking ahead, we've got one of the best lineups in the history of HBO. This next quarter, we'll have Hacks and House of the Dragon, followed by DC's The Penguin and the new Dune series. Then in 2025, we'll kick off the year with the new season of The White Lotus, followed by The Last of Us and Euphoria, just to name a few.

 

Also coming to Max from Warner Bros. Motion Pictures are Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom on February 27th. Wonka will join the service on March 8th followed by Dune: Part Two in the spring. We also inked a multi-year deal with a A24 in December to bring A24 theatrical releases exclusively to Max. They've already started being carried. I want to mention one other area of our business before turning it over to Gunnar to talk through the quarter. As you heard last week, we're entering a new joint venture with Disney and Fox focused on sports. We believe this will provide a terrific consumer experience and will be a great business. We couldn't be more excited about it. We'll also be able to bundle this product with Max. So we see this new joint venture as another potential driver of incremental growth for our business going forward.

 

See, this is why context is important.  I can't help but note he gave a concrete date for Wonka and for Aquaman 2 and most certainly did *not* for Dune: Part Two.

 

I also can't help but note that Wonka is releasing on Max after Aqaubro 2 despite Wonka releasing in theaters earlier.  Okay, about a week and a half in both directions, so not talking much here.  But is showing a bit of fluidity here if a small amount.

 

Even using the Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom timeline here, might be looking at Early to Mid May as the date.  Using the amount of time for Wonka (84-ish days) would put it at late May.  The earlier timeline of Aquaman 2 (67-ish days) would put it at the very beginning of May.

 

Maybe it will be earlier.  But tend to think mid to late May is more likely.  And if so... what exactly is the fuss again?

 

(mind, do blame Zaslav to a degree since he'd know folks could flip out — on the other hand since it is an earnings call it'd be remiss for him not to mention a planned Q2 release if in fact D2 is released sometime in May, so....)

((eh))

Edited February 25 by Porthos

[emoviefan]

Nothing like making a mountain out of a molehill. Anything up to June 21 is spring.  That would be a 110 day window or so.    Most likely it will be between May 1 and June 1 so 60 to 90 days. And that will probably be determined on what the legs and staying power are  of the movie anyway. 

[JustLurking]

nvm, forum fucked up

Edited February 25 by JustLurking

[JustLurking]

18 minutes ago, leoh said:

I am just saying Metacritic (80) and RT (97%) scores will get closer when reviews from non-invited critics arrive on RT after today’s first public screenings for GA in the US. For comparison I mentioned their difference regarding first Dune, 74 MC and 83% RT. I’m not shading it, I’m just purely making an analysis. BTW I have tickets for a Dune screening today in Lincoln Square.

 

I'll answer here so I don't clog the tracking thread. It does not work that way. RT% is simply a treshold that goes up once a critic is deemed "positive enough" (i.e. 6/10 or close to that). Metacritic is an average of scores. One critic going from 5/10 to 6/10 will make way more of an impact on the RT% score than on the average score (be it rt or mc) because RT% is not a scale, it's just a positive/negative. If you're going to compare to metacritic it would make way more sense to compare the average scores instead, and even better would be to compare to the top critics' average as those critics match up better with the MC ones (in which case you would get +0.6 on MC and +0.5 on RT, extremely close, and MC is actually the higher increase here).

Edited February 25 by JustLurking

[JustLurking]

2 minutes ago, leoh said:

Nope: rn RT has 43 reviews from top critics, only 2 of them are rotten. This is ~96%, far away from MC 80.

 

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/dune_part_two/reviews?type=top_critics

And same for this one. Again, you're mixing up things. Metacritic is AVERAGE SCORE, it's not a %. The % of positive reviews on MC is either 95% or 97% depending on wheter you'd count a 58 as "rotten" or not. The average score is near identical as well (80 mc, 82 RT).

[toutvabien]

The weekend report from Deadline says Dune Pt 2 is expected to open to $80M+! Is it really tracking for that much? That would be great. I was hoping for $70M.

[IchwanBigBrother]

3 hours ago, toutvabien said:

The weekend report from Deadline says Dune Pt 2 is expected to open to $80M+! Is it really tracking for that much? That would be great. I was hoping for $70M.

Presales are strong enough that it's a fairly safe bet. I would be shocked if it manages somehow to reach $90. A few bold ones are even claiming higher but I save my boldness for repeating my confidence that WW will see $750m as a floor. I genuinely have no clue how much of that will be US. Can't get a solid read on growth of audience this side, too many factors at play. Internationally I expect even better ratio of more grosses than Part One vs. DOM. The legs and audience response overseas will be the most deciding thing. 

 

Early access shows are tonight. Those will be fun to hear about and see how much they end up selling. Anecdotally I know someone who's going to watch Part One for the first time TODAY, then see EA tonight. A likely new Brother of the Sietch. Wonder how many more of him are out there. Maybe the Harkonnen severely underestimated the count... 🏜️✊🏽

Edited February 25 by IchwanBigBrother

[MOVIEGUY]

IMAX. A BUNCH OF EDIBLES. DUNE TONIGHT. I AM READY.

 

 

 

[Morieris]

this'll probably be in RPX at my Regal, but watching Heron was such an odd experience with that screen that i'll probably just keep it on a normal screen.

[IchwanBigBrother]

15 minutes ago, MOVIEGUY said:

IMAX. A BUNCH OF EDIBLES. DUNE TONIGHT. I AM READY.

You must have a strong constitution. I waited until my second show, less than a day after the first, before having any spice. And me a reader, too. 🪨

[ThePhasmid]

Anyone know what the Sunday IMAX ticket sales are looking like right now? A good indicator for Thursday's totals?

[Issac Newton]

DUNE: PART TWO arrives on 802 IMAX screens in 81 countries next weekend, including 12 locations repping the 70mm format.

 

The spice will be flowing tonight (Sunday), as 406 screens in North America will play the IMAX exclusive FAN FIRST screenings

[IchwanBigBrother]

21 minutes ago, ThePhasmid said:

Anyone know what the Sunday IMAX ticket sales are looking like right now? A good indicator for Thursday's totals?

In some markets, I'm sure mostly the biggest, reports of near sellouts or sellouts. No surprises there. It's the regular OW performance that's to keep an eye on I'd think. A solid Friday, Saturday and then how much of a Sunday drop. Then we start to see more "normies."

 

I just looked at the seating for a large format but non IMAX screen near me on Thursday. They even put in some late afternoon and late night shows. Given the demos of people around me, it's damn impressive. Could see some near sellouts if not total. 

 

Edit2; our local LIEMAX is completely sold out for tonight. It's small in every way (so only a win in a relative sense) and I hate it. But I wish everyone a great experience all the same. 

Edited February 25 by IchwanBigBrother

[Steele131]

2 hours ago, ThePhasmid said:

Anyone know what the Sunday IMAX ticket sales are looking like right now? A good indicator for Thursday's totals?

 

27 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

$1.6-1.65M pre-sales for Dune 2 shows today in US. Canada another $175K+. Total $1.75-1.8M, final shall be close to $2M.

 

From the tracking thread