Halloween Weekend Thread | D:$15.53m HK: $8.5m NTTD: $7.82m

[ViktorLosAngeles]

I'm predicting 2.3-2.4 million $ for HK next weekend. 92-3 million $ total.

 

As for "Dune" - 7.2-7.4 million $ third weekend, and I suppose - 97ish million $ total, unless it shows those "Oscar legs" which most of you are predicting, but I highly doubt it will. Nominations are in February, and by then, this film will be dead and gone from theaters.

 

 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

4 minutes ago, ViktorLosAngeles said:

I'm predicting 2.3-2.4 million $ for HK next weekend. 92-3 million $ total.

 

As for "Dune" - 7.2-7.4 million $ third weekend, and I suppose - 97ish million $ total, unless it shows those "Oscar legs" which most of you are predicting, but I highly doubt it will. Nominations are in February, and by then, this film will be dead and gone from theaters.

 

 

It won't have Oscar legs, it'll just get a re-release in Feb/January

[Ronin46]

1 hour ago, RRA said:

I’ve yet to find an instance really where any movie got major noms just to get more ratings for the show. Doesn’t work like that. Voters don’t think like that.

 

As for Dune’s chances, we live in weird times when foreign language movies won Best Picture, as did a Creature from Black Lagoon pastiche from the director of Blade 2. A nom is not impossible.

 

Reminds me back in the day when we were surprised Fury Road score a high load of noms including Pic/Director…and word at the time was WB was just as surprised as everybody else. 
 

 

Your looking at a long history where that has been the case. But we are in a very very different time. Pandemic, streaming and a reluctance for the older folk to go back to the cinema. Ratings were super bad for the last Academy awards and it was a disaster with really no high profile movie being in consideration. I would imagine many members would be very grateful and happy that a big budget movie employing a lot of people has been a critical and relatively financial success all things considered. Its made by an acclaimed director and has a star studded and stellar cast.  

 

As for a nom is "not impossible". I hate to break it to you but its listed 4th in most betting sites for winning BP. So think its got a very good chance of being nominated out of 10 movies.

Edited November 1, 2021 by Ronin46

[ViewerAnon]

1 hour ago, Last Man Standing said:

So far you're the one who seems in shock, since you didn't think the GA would connect with it, I think the shocks are gonna keep coming your way.

 

-62% its second weekend without competition, almost certainly -65%+ its third weekend.

 

Yes yes, amazing legs, a real general audience favorite, I am very shocked.

Edited November 1, 2021 by ViewerAnon

[TwoMisfits]

9 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

Your looking at a long history where that has been the case. But we are in a very very different time. Pandemic, streaming and a reluctance for the older folk to go back to the cinema. Ratings were super bad for the last Academy awards and it was a disaster with really no high profile movie being in consideration. I would imagine many members would be very grateful and happy that a big budget movie employing a lot of people has been a critical and relatively financial success all things considered. Its made by an acclaimed director and has a star studded and stellar cast.  

 

As for a nom is "not impossible". I hate to break it to you but its listed 4th in most betting sites for winning BP. So think its got a very good ahnce of being nominated out of 10 movies.

 

So, you're saying Free Guy has a chance?:)

[Ronin46]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

So, you're saying Free Guy has a chance?:)

 

I was thinking more along the lines of Venom 2 or F9

[Pinacolada]

3 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

French Dispatch falling from 3.5 estimates to 2.7 is pretty bad. Sad.

Yeah, wtf happened there? Really good Friday, but just a bad Saturday and Sunday?

[RRA]

17 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

Your looking at a long history where that has been the case. But we are in a very very different time. Pandemic, streaming and a reluctance for the older folk to go back to the cinema. Ratings were super bad for the last Academy awards and it was a disaster with really no high profile movie being in consideration. I would imagine many members would be very grateful and happy that a big budget movie employing a lot of people has been a critical and relatively financial success all things considered. Its made by an acclaimed director and has a star studded and stellar cast.  

 

As for a nom is "not impossible". I hate to break it to you but its listed 4th in most betting sites for winning BP. So think its got a very good chance of being nominated out of 10 movies.

Not sure what point you’re making by quoting me? I was actually making a case for why a nomination is possible unlike certain people in this thread. 
 

As for Oscar ratings, they’ve had a downward trajectory for awhile now. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

6 minutes ago, Pinacolada said:

Yeah, wtf happened there? Really good Friday, but just a bad Saturday and Sunday?

Friday included previews in expansion theaters

[WrathOfHan]

If Oscar ratings are anything like the Emmys this year, they'll rebound back to 2018-2019 levels. It'll still be one of the most watched telecasts of the year regardless of how much ratings have dropped.

[lorddemaxus]

27 minutes ago, ViewerAnon said:

 

-62% its second weekend without competition, almost certainly -65%+ its third weekend.

 

Yes yes, amazing legs, a real general audience favorite, I am very shocked.

This totally doesn't disregard the fact that the movie is on streaming and you throwing some random-ass number for its 3rd weekend lol. So far the audience scores have been pretty good and the holds have been ok (it's better than GvK's 56% drop from a delated opening weekend due to opening in the middle of the week)

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

32 minutes ago, ViewerAnon said:

 

-62% its second weekend without competition, almost certainly -65%+ its third weekend.

 

Yes yes, amazing legs, a real general audience favorite, I am very shocked.

Since you're being snarky given your dislike, can you genuinely name 10 movies ahead of it that would realistically be nominated for BP?

[filmnerdjamie]

36 minutes ago, ViewerAnon said:

 

-62% its second weekend without competition, almost certainly -65%+ its third weekend.

 

Yes yes, amazing legs, a real general audience favorite, I am very shocked.

 

The excuses (like the spice) must flow.

[Ronin46]

2 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Since you're being snarky given your dislike, can you genuinely name 10 movies ahead of it that would realistically be nominated for BP?

 

Dear Evan Hansen

Snake Eyes

Chaos Walking

Reminiscence

Joe Bell

The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Halloween Kills

Escape Room 2

Done Breathe 2

Cry Macho

 

 

 

[lorddemaxus]

Just now, filmnerdjamie said:

 

The excuses (like the spice) must flow.

Nah, there are no excuses here. Movie got a sequel, meaning the studio thinks it's a hit. All that matters regardless of what you think.

[RRA]

2 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

Dear Evan Hansen

Snake Eyes

Chaos Walking

Reminiscence

Joe Bell

The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Halloween Kills

Escape Room 2

Done Breathe 2

Cry Macho

 

 

 

Razzies are packed this year!

[Eric Prime]

12 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

If Oscar ratings are anything like the Emmys this year, they'll rebound back to 2018-2019 levels. It'll still be one of the most watched telecasts of the year regardless of how much ratings have dropped.

Anecdotal, but my mom mainly watches award shows for the red carpets and pretty dresses, which is why she had zero interest in the quarantined award shows. And looking at the usual "best dressed" articles that prop up after every awards show, I don't think she's alone. Having some beautiful people strut their stuff and put out some banger performances will go a long way in getting the casuals invested. Although I guess on the other hand, stuff like The Crown and Queen's Gambit were watched by just about everybody, so I could be wrong here.

[ViewerAnon]

8 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

This totally doesn't disregard the fact that the movie is on streaming and you throwing some random-ass number for its 3rd weekend lol. So far the audience scores have been pretty good and the holds have been ok (it's better than GvK's 56% drop from a delated opening weekend due to opening in the middle of the week)

 

So for the record, lorddemaxus, you would say DUNE certainly won't drop 65% in its second weekend because word-of-mouth is too good?

This thread is full of people seeing what they want to see. There will be an Oscar push because of course the movie will be showered with major awards attention. A 62% drop is actually quite good, even when they were saying all week it would drop less than that.

 

People are being defensive because they are fans of a movie that is doing okay. It is not doing particularly better than okay by any measure other than "DUNE is important to me and I really really need DUNE to do well." It is also not doing particularly worse than okay due to circumstances outside of its control.

 

DUNE is 2021's PACIFIC RIM. People like it fine. There is not a massive ground-swell of general audience love for it despite what an insulated bubble of overly-invested fans want to believe.

[filmnerdjamie]

3 minutes ago, ViewerAnon said:

 

So for the record, lorddemaxus, you would say DUNE certainly won't drop 65% in its second weekend because word-of-mouth is too good?

This thread is full of people seeing what they want to see. There will be an Oscar push because of course the movie will be showered with major awards attention. A 62% drop is actually quite good, even when they were saying all week it would drop less than that.

 

People are being defensive because they are fans of a movie that is doing okay. It is not doing particularly better than okay by any measure other than "DUNE is important to me and I really really need DUNE to do well." It is also not doing particularly worse than okay due to circumstances outside of its control.

 

DUNE is 2021's PACIFIC RIM. People like it fine. There is not a massive ground-swell of general audience love for it despite what an insulated bubble of overly-invested fans want to believe.

[John Marston]

Dune is doing well enough for a sequel, especially considering the pandemic/HBO Max. If the sequels makes similar or less numbers then yeah you pretty much have to end it there