The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[EmpireCity]

Death on the Nile goes on sale on Feb. 1st

[21C]

You can now watch a thousand videos like Jackass on youtube for free. The idea that it'll somehow make 23 million opening weekend is pretty ridiculous. I get it was a huge thing back in the day but that's one franchise for which the climate has changed entirely for the worst. The long range tracking is way too high on that one; will be lucky to hit 10 million.
The audiences that grew up with it are now too old for it, and the teenagers/young adults of today are too used to seeing that type of content in other platforms so they're not gonna spend any money to see it on the big screen. It's an extremely niche concept.

Edited January 22, 2022 by 21C

[EmpireCity]

38 minutes ago, 21C said:

You can now watch a thousand videos like Jackass on youtube for free. The idea that it'll somehow make 23 million opening weekend is pretty ridiculous. I get it was a huge thing back in the day but that's one franchise for which the climate has changed entirely for the worst. The long range tracking is way too high on that one; will be lucky to hit 10 million.
The audiences that grew up with it are now too old for it, and the teenagers/young adults of today are too used to seeing that type of content in other platforms so they're not gonna spend any money to see it on the big screen. It's an extremely niche concept.

 

I've seen 2 other independent tracking services that have it around the $20m+ level.  

 

 

Edited January 22, 2022 by EmpireCity

[21C]

7 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

I've seen 2 other independent tracking services that have it around the $20m+ level.  

 

 

Still think they're waaaaay off and reading the current market really wrong. Even if there's interest on it on social media I don't think that'll translate that well into reality. I think this is gonna be one of those cases where the tracking ends up being way off because of how much time there's been between another movie like this vs. how much the market has changed during that time. 

[Krissykins]

I think Jackass will be lucky to make it to $10m too. I agree it just seems obsolete now. 
 

Obviously I hope it does do $20m+ for the box office though. 

[21C]

15 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I think Jackass will be lucky to make it to $10m too. I agree it just seems obsolete now. 
 

Obviously I hope it does do $20m+ for the box office though. 

The trailers not only have "STREAMING" written on their forehead, they genuinely seem more like something you'd see in Youtube Originals.

Edited January 22, 2022 by 21C

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

53 minutes ago, 21C said:

The trailers not only have "STREAMING" written on their forehead, they genuinely seem more like something you'd see in Youtube Originals.

Completely false. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Jackass is selling fine here.

 

Thursday AMC at 7 has 35 seats sold. The Friday 715 has 9. 4 for the 8.

[snarkmachine]

6 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

 

I've seen 2 other independent tracking services that have it around the $20m+ level.  

 

 

 

What do they say about Death on the Nile and Uncharted? 👀

[excel1]

If THE BATMAN presale tickets go live early enough, it might break the opening weekend record before it even opens. 

[XXR & Friends]

1 minute ago, excel1 said:

If THE BATMAN presale tickets go live early enough, it might break the opening weekend record before it even opens. 

 

Can 'The Batman' OW even beat Endgame OD? Can OD beat Endgame previews?

Hmm, questions on questions....

 

[Brainbug]

1 hour ago, excel1 said:

If THE BATMAN presale tickets go live early enough, it might break the opening weekend record before it even opens. 

 

Please. The first day of presales of THE BATMAN alone will be enough to make Endgames OW seem like Mars needs Moms OW. 

[Joyous Legion]

If THE BATMAN presale tickets go live early enough, it might top the OW record with its final Dom gross.

 

 

[Eric is Quiet]

 

Pencil that date in. Gonna be a good one.

[XXR & Friends]

3 minutes ago, Eric Riley said:

 

Pencil that date in. Gonna be a good one.

@EmpireCity Can you confirm? Hesitant to believe a random Twitter with 37 followers when no official outlet has mentioned this yet.

[Eric is Quiet]

2 minutes ago, RiddlerXXR said:

@EmpireCity Can you confirm? Hesitant to believe a random Twitter with 37 followers when no official outlet has mentioned this yet.

 

[EmpireCity]

I haven't seen a date yet, but it has to be pretty soon.  Feb. 10th makes sense.  

[filmlover]

8 hours ago, excel1 said:

If THE BATMAN presale tickets go live early enough, it might break the opening weekend record before it even opens. 

You're setting yourself up for (inevitable) disappointment.

 

Anything over $100M alone would be nothing but outstanding for the movie, especially when that number is apparently the budget (impressively conservative in this day and age where the average tentpole automatically costs $200M and seems to be including all the COVID-related pauses that occurred throughout filming).

Edited January 23, 2022 by filmlover

[21C]

9 minutes ago, filmlover said:

You're setting yourself up for (inevitable) disappointment.

 

Anything over $100M alone would be nothing but outstanding for the movie, especially when that number is apparently the budget (impressively conservative in this day and age where the average tentpole automatically costs $200M and seems to be including all the COVID-related pauses that occurred throughout filming).

Well that's just kinda ridiculous. Only over 100 million would just be slightly above Venom Let There Be Carnage, it'd be a giant disappointment.

[filmlover]

Just now, 21C said:

Well that's just kinda ridiculous. Only over 100 million would just be slightly above Venom Let There Be Carnage, it'd be a giant disappointment.

We're talking about the kind of movie that needs everything to go right from marketing to reviews to truly explode (luckily all signs so far are swinging heavily in the positive direction) given that the concept of the Batman reboot is hardly a novel one in 2022. Guessing the movie's more of a gamble than meets the eye based on the fact the studio apparently managed to keep the budget at a relatively reasonable level.