The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[el sid]

Uncharted, counted today at 12pm EST for Thursday, Feb 17:
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 96 (6 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 62 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 12 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 3 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 10 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 89 (6 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 125 (6 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 397.
 

Way better looking now of course (especially with still 2 ½ weeks to go). But my comps are so uneven that I still don't dare to guess anything.
Comps: Dune had after one day on sale 1.038 sold tickets for Thursday,

Matrix 4 had 1.409 after one day on sale and 15 days left till Dec 22,

TSS had with 19 days left 585 sold tickest (but no good jumps over the next days)

and Sonic's final presales number, on Thursday for Thursday, was 1.120.

Uncharted, counted today also at 12pm EST for Friday, Feb 18:
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 65 (8 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 47 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 15 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 2 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 5 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 61 (10 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 38 (6 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 233.

Comps: Dune had after one day 1.426 sold tickets,

TSS had 292 sold tickets with 20 days left (but as mentioned above, no good jumps in the future),
Jungle Cruise had on Monday of its release week 357 sold tickets for Friday

and Sonic's final presales number, on Thursday for Friday, was 2.103.

[Krissykins]

8 hours ago, filmlover said:

To be fair, none of those movies are gonna light up the box office regardless (Death on the Nile was made what feels like ages ago and is one of the last 20th Century cast offs, Marry Me would likely do Second Act numbers even without day-and-date, and Neeson action flicks became stale a while ago).

I get a feeling Death on the Nile is going to do really well here in the UK. Maybe the equivalent of a $30m opening. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Major midwest winter storm expected this week.. factor this into the weekend forecast

[XXR vs XXR]

26 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Major midwest winter storm expected this week.. factor this into the weekend forecast

 

I expect drops to be similar or better than last weekend. A large portion of Canada came back today, so that will ease things. 

[Legion Again]

36 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Major midwest winter storm expected this week.. factor this into the weekend forecast

Looks like the current forecast is for more of a Tues-Fri impact that like Fri-Sun? It will be coming off a larger snowstorm impact this weekend anyway.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

23 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

Looks like the current forecast is for more of a Tues-Fri impact that like Fri-Sun? It will be coming off a larger snowstorm impact this weekend anyway.

Bad aftermath expected to linger during weekend in east coast

[Eric Lasagna]

Jackass Forever Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Countingb

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	29	277	4304	6.44%

 

Comp

0.374x of The Suicide Squad (1.53M)

1.787x of Free Guy T-3 (3.93M)

0.347x of Scream T-3 (1.21M)

 

Yeah it's kinda hard to find good comps for this tbh. If anybody has suggestions, that would be great.

[Eric Lasagna]

Moonfall Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	37	192	6719	2.86%

 

Comp

1.280x of Snake Eyes T-3 (1.79M)

0.259x of The Suicide Squad T-3 (1.06M)

0.146x of Dune T-3 (747K)

 

Again, if people have ideas for comps, please let me know. It does seem however that IMAX and theaters with their own PLFs might have bet on the wrong horse this weekend.

[filmlover]

5 hours ago, Krissykins said:

I get a feeling Death on the Nile is going to do really well here in the UK. Maybe the equivalent of a $30m opening. 

That would hardly be a shock tbh. The previous movie made nearly 3/4 its worldwide total outside the U.S. (which likely influenced the decision to make another more than anything else).

 

Meanwhile, The Devil's Light just got delayed from end of February to October which I guess isn't a surprise since all promo for it seems to be theater exclusive (got the trailer for it before Scream a few weeks ago). FWIW Lionsgate has also put out a trailer for The Unbreakable Boy (a Wonder-esque family drama with Zachary Levi currently set for March 18) that isn't available online (got it before Sing 2 on Christmas) so we should find out soon enough if that's either making its date or also going to delayed (or sold to a streamer).

[Eric Lasagna]

23 hours ago, Eric Riley said:

Uncharted Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-18 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	54	166	10233	1.62%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 79

 

Comp

0.281x of F9 T-18 (2M)

0.779x of The Suicide Squad T-18 (3.19M)

0.413x of Venom 2 T-18 (4.79M)

 

And you all were all so concerned. This isn't out of the woods yet, but this really does emphasize just how important the "tickets on sale" date really is, even when a film gets a soft launch. I'll be adding in Ghostbusters tomorrow into my comps.

Uncharted Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-17 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	54	192	10233	1.62%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 26

 

Comp

0.306x of F9 T-17 (2.17M)

0.865x of The Suicide Squad T-17 (3.55M)

0.437x of Venom 2 T-17 (5.07M)

0.762x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-17 (3.43M)

[filmlover]

Moonfall has barely sold anything for Thursday through the weekend near me. Hopefully Lionsgate or whoever financed it has a red pen ready cause it seems headed for one heck of a nasty write-off.

[Legion Again]

12 minutes ago, Eric Riley said:

Moonfall Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	37	192	6719	2.86%

 

Comp

1.280x of Snake Eyes T-3 (1.79M)

0.259x of The Suicide Squad T-3 (1.06M)

0.146x of Dune T-3 (747K)

 

Again, if people have ideas for comps, please let me know. It does seem however that IMAX and theaters with their own PLFs might have bet on the wrong horse this weekend.

Moonfall OD has been looking underneath Jackass OD for a while imo. At least BOP has been on that train.

[charlie Jatinder]

7 minutes ago, Eric Riley said:

Uncharted Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-17 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	54	192	10233	1.62%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 26

 

Comp

0.306x of F9 T-17 (2.17M)

0.865x of The Suicide Squad T-17 (3.55M)

0.437x of Venom 2 T-17 (5.07M)

0.762x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-17 (3.43M)

That Ghostbusters comp look fine to me. Damn. So Tom Holland will have first HIT outside MCU. 

 

Sonic had $3M previews for $58M OW. This can may be $35-40M from that previews.

[poweranimals]

I can't believe Jackass Forever might outsell Moonfall.

[snarkmachine]

I still think Uncharted is a movie that will be very susceptible to reviews. Bad reviews and it will drop to sub 20, good reviews and it can go up to 50

[filmlover]

12 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

I can't believe Jackass Forever might outsell Moonfall.

It was obviously boosted big time by the 3D gimmick and ticket prices (back when the format was still basking in the afterglow of Avatar), but the previous Jackass movie (not counting 2013 spin-off Bad Grandpa) opened to $50M+ in October 2010. We'll see how much of a following the brand still has nearly a dozen years later soon enough.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

2 hours ago, poweranimals said:

I can't believe Jackass Forever might outsell Moonfall.

Why? Jackass is a franchise with each subsequent installment being a bigger hit than the previous. The new one is sold off novelty and nostalgia. Even the Bad Grandpa spinoff opened to 30+ and finished with 100m. It's a very valuable franchise. Hoping for 20m+ OW.

 

Moonfall is an original property (strike one) with bad reviews (strike two) and an inconsistent director specialized in out of fashion genres (strike three). I was hoping the PLF and meme reaction to marketing could boost it but seems unlikely

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

CINEMARK

(Thursday)

Jackass Forever- (19)

730 (15) , 1015 (4)

Moonfall- (2)

6 (0), 920 (2)

(Friday)

Jackass Forever- (29)

12, 245 (2), 530 (4), 815 (23)

Moonfall- (3)

1210, 325, 640 (3), 10

 

Thursday/Friday

Jackass-48

Moonfall- 5

 

AMC:

Jackass Forever

Tuesday AMC Investor screening- (26)

(Thursday)- (79)

7 (66), 745 (13)

(Friday)- (76)

3 (3) 330, 430 (6), 540 (5), 630, 715 (22), 805 (40)

 

 

Moonfall

(Thursday)- (62)

6pm DOLBY (22)

7pm IMAX (40)

630, 730

(Friday)- (32)

345 DOLBY (7), 7 DOLBY (20)

445 IMAX, 8 IMAX (4),

415, 730 (1)

 

Thursday/Friday

Jackass Forever- (155) (without+26 Tuesday)

Moonfall- (94)

Moonfall's entire Friday is barely outselling Jackass's Tuesday screening

Edited February 1, 2022 by BestPicturePlutoNash

[BadOlCatSylvester]

You can find plenty of crazy stunts on YouTube and Tiktok without shelling out money for a Jackass ticket, so I'm not sure Forever's going to perform all that much better than Moonfall.

 

I hope Uncharted gets at least decent reviews because otherwise exhibitors are fucked until March.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

19 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

You can find plenty of crazy stunts on YouTube and Tiktok without shelling out money for a Jackass ticket, so I'm not sure Forever's going to perform all that much better than Moonfall.

 

I hope Uncharted gets at least decent reviews because otherwise exhibitors are fucked until March.

People keep mentioning this yet the presales say otherwise