The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Porthos]

23 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Someone at that theater definitely screwed up by releasing the tickets in between 2 different sales windows opening. Will likely sell out tomorrow instead of today just because anyone who was looking for those tickets yesterday probably decided to wait till tomorrow to get Thursday ones.

 

Maybe.  It would also require said folks to check for Tue tickets "just in case" and be pleasantly surprised instead of just shooting straight to Thur.

 

As for screw up?  Possibly. This is a true independent theater though, so for all I know, cash flow hadn't been set up enough yet to clear whatever contracts needed to be signed. Not really sure how it works on the business side of things, but sometimes the smaller chains/local indies put up their sets a day or two later than the big boys in town, and I reckon there is likely a reason for it.

[Tinalera]

So will probably start some uncharted watching for Toronto come Friday-I believe we are still under 50 percent rule until 21st of Feb for theatres, but its better than nothing.

[DAJK]

Uncharted is slowing down considerably in sales. A week ago I would have said 40-50M opening, now I’m thinking high 20s.

 

DotN isn't quite doubling Marry Me in presales in Canada, but it’s close. Marry Me is still 10x Blacklight though

[Rorschach]

Death on the Nile is doing an advanced IMAX screening at my Cinemark tonight at 6 pm cst. 2 hours out and it's only sold 2 tickets so far lol.

[DAJK]

16 minutes ago, Rorschach said:

Death on the Nile is doing an advanced IMAX screening at my Cinemark tonight at 6 pm cst. 2 hours out and it's only sold 2 tickets so far lol.

17 at my local. Only a few locations are doing them as far as I know, especially in Canada. Sub-200 tix so far

[TalismanRing]

NYC Local (Regal) (5pm)

 

Death On The Nile:  14/320 (WED) + 4/1752 (THUR)

Backlight: 8/768

Marry Me:  4/768

 

BATMAN:  tickets not on sale yet for WED (1 show) or THUR (13 shows)

[Eric is Quiet]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-death-on-the-nile-marry-me-and-blacklight-eye-pacing-for-varied-results-on-super-bowl-weekend/

 

Weekend Forecast & Location Counts

Boxoffice projects between a 7 to 17 percent decline for this weekend’s top ten films from last weekend’s $55.9 million top ten aggregate. 

Film	Distributor	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, February 13	Location Count	3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
Death on the Nile	Disney / 20th Century Studios	$14,500,000	$14,500,000	~3,200	NEW
Jackass Forever	Paramount Pictures	$8,000,000	$38,000,000	~3,604	-65%
Spider-Man: No Way Home	Sony Pictures / Columbia & Marvel Studios	$7,100,000	$759,000,000	~3,500	-25%
Marry Me	Universal Pictures	$7,000,000	$7,000,000	~3,600	NEW
Moonfall	Lionsgate	$4,000,000	$16,800,000	~3,446	-59%
Scream (2022)	Paramount Pictures	$2,900,000	$73,200,000	~2,700	-39%
Sing 2	Universal Pictures	$2,800,000	$143,200,000	~2,900	-34%
Blacklight	Briarcliff Entertainment	$2,000,000	$2,000,000	2,772	NEW
Licorice Pizza	United Artists Releasing	$1,100,000	$14,100,000	~1,850	+71%
The Beatles: Get Back – The Rooftop Concert	Disney / 20th Century Studios	$800,000	$1,200,000	~190	NEW

[snarkmachine]

10 hours ago, snarkmachine said:

Marry Me embargo lifts this 9am this Thursday.

 

Uncharted embargo lifts 9 am next Tuesday. Don't know how that works with the movie due out in the UK this weekend 

 

Oh wait never mind, looks like Uncharted is up 6am Friday (UK time). That’s like 11pm Thursday I think? But don’t rely on my math

Edited February 9, 2022 by snarkmachine

[filmlover]

Blacklight starting with a wonderful 13% on RT. Gotta miss the days when Liam Neeson actually gave a shit.

[Lagniappe]

1 hour ago, snarkmachine said:

 

Oh wait never mind, looks like Uncharted is up 6am Friday (UK time). That’s like 11pm Thursday I think? But don’t rely on my math

So what’s your take on that? Movie sucks so the embargo lifts hours before the first show? Or movie is good so embargo lifts a full week or more before North American showings?

[filmlover]

Oscar theater expansions:

 

Licorice Pizza: 2,000 (last weekend: 786)

West Side Story: 1,500 (last weekend: 800)

Nightmare Alley: 1,100-1,200 (last weekend: 705)

Belfast: 920 (last weekend: 390)

Dune: potentially up to 600 theaters (last weekend: 86)

King Richard: TBA (last weekend: 35)

Drive My Car: 120 (adding 20)

 

Oscar Best Picture Nominees 2022 At Box Office: Don’t Expect A Boost – Deadline

[snarkmachine]

35 minutes ago, Lagniappe said:

So what’s your take on that? Movie sucks so the embargo lifts hours before the first show? Or movie is good so embargo lifts a full week or more before North American showings?

 

Zero clue. Someone upthread said for Tomb Raider which opened in Europe a week early, they embargoed reviews even after it was open in Europe so it was closer to the US release date. Which I didn’t even know they could do? 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Predictions for the #1 film every weekend of 2022:

 

Feb 11: Death on the Nile

Feb 18: Uncharted

Feb 25: Uncharted (x2)

 

March 4: The Batman

March 11: The Batman (x2)

March 18: The Batman (x3)

March 25: The Lost City

 

April 1: Morbius

April 8: Sonic 2

April 15: Fantastic Beasts 3

April 22: Sonic 2 (x2)

April 29: 65

 

May 6: Doctor Strange 2

May 13th: Doctor Strange 2 (x2)

May 20th: Doctor Strange 2 (x3.. should beat Superpets)

May 27th: Top Gun 2

 

June 3: Top Gun 2 (x2)

June 10th: Jurassic World 3 

June 17th: Lightyear

June 24th: Lightyear (x2)

 

July 1st: Minions 2

July 8th: Thor 4

July 15th: Thor 4 (x2)

July 22nd: Nope

July 29th: Black Adam

 

August 5th: Black Adam (x2.. until we get trailer for Secret Headquarters)

August 12th: The Man From Toronto

August 19th: The Man From Toronto (x2.. Beast is only other wide release.. something should move here like Bullet Train)

August 26th: Samaritan 

 

September 9th: Salem's Lot

September 16th: The Woman King

September 23rd: Puss in Boots

September 30th: Bros

 

October 7th: Spider-Verse

October 14th: Halloween Ends

October 21st: Halloween Ends (x2)

October 28th: Halloween Ends (x3.. no other wide release but Devil's Light)

 

November 4th: The Flash

November 11th: Black Panther 2

November 18th: Black Panther 2 (x2)

November 25th: Strange World (but waiting for more Creed 3 info)

 

December 2nd: Strange World (x2)

December 9th: No releases scheduled currently

December 16th: Avatar 2 

December 23-Christmas: Avatar 2 (x2)

December 30th: Avatar 2 (x3)

[Lagniappe]

28 minutes ago, snarkmachine said:

 

Zero clue. Someone upthread said for Tomb Raider which opened in Europe a week early, they embargoed reviews even after it was open in Europe so it was closer to the US release date. Which I didn’t even know they could do? 

So I’m starting to see positive feedback on Twitter from Dubai, Rome and Madrid screenings. Maybe they’ll pull this off. 

[charlie Jatinder]

6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think Alpha sales will be off the chart. Lincoln sq itself has almost sold off its 2 imax shows and that is 480 seats per show. There are many other big imax shows that are nearly sold out as well. I hope @ZackM can run for early imax shows as there must be about 100 odd shows at alpha. 

There are 180 shows in alpha. Yeah big cities are gonna be over that 200 avg easily but I guess others may be on smaller side.

[excel1]

20 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

There are 180 shows in alpha. Yeah big cities are gonna be over that 200 avg easily but I guess others may be on smaller side.

 

Batman performs like democrats in statewide election. He will look ALL-TIME HUGE in cities and then more average in rural.

[charlie Jatinder]

6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

FYI I just looked at few imax at alpha and see 6155/7249(22 shows) among non sold out shows(including lincoln sq). I saw another half a dozen sold out imax shows at NYC(34th st), LA area(all 3 shows) and 1 imax show at Austin/San Antonio Tx. 

So 279 per show. I guess 200-225 avg nationwide is likely. 

 

Don't know what WB is doing here. This was supposed to be 1 show each IMAX locs. Donno why they are having multiple shows now. 

 

1. You are diluting THU numbers

2. You are going to make my job really hard 

Edited February 10, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[BruiseCruise]

WB trying to break that OW record by any means necessary

[XXR & Friends]

2 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

WB trying to break that OW record by any means necessary

 

I assume you mean the WB OW record or March OW record, because it has no shot at the outright record. 

[Joyous Legion]

More studios should follow WB’s lead here. Just throw some really upcharged PLF only showings up for Mon Tues and Wed night (these would easily sellout even with another 20% price increase imo) can snag some good WOM from the diehards and more of them will contribute to “OW” twice than if you started on Th.    
 

Main problem may be if people start discussing the plot openly on on social media by Tues.

Edited February 10, 2022 by Product Driven Legion