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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

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4 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Alpha is the biggest chain and its doing extremely well. MTC2 tends to be more backend loaded. Sacremento does not have any Alpha theaters(or just 1). So its definitely not representative of overall market.

I don't think chains determine sub regions performance but sub regions those chains are set do.

 

Alpha has bigger presence on East coast which is home to New York where stuff like Joker, Dune, etc overindex.

 

While MTC2 is bigger in West Coast & South West, with diverse population demo. They do overindex for some films & that does make MTC 2 sometime have better sales than Alpha like Venom 2, F9, Halloween, etc

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2 minutes ago, DAJK said:

So Cyrano is absolutely TANKING tonight in my entire region. Even in markets where you would normally expect it to do well. Hopefully the weekend walkups are strong, but it's not looking good right now. 

 

I saw this and I thought it was really dull lol, although the bungled release strategy can't have helped. Can't wait for Joe Wright to get back in his Atonement era. 

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10 minutes ago, DAJK said:

So Cyrano is absolutely TANKING tonight in my entire region. Even in markets where you would normally expect it to do well. Hopefully the weekend walkups are strong, but it's not looking good right now. 

Not surprised. The movie was left for dead once it became clear it was going nowhere awards-wise between all the release date changes.

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The Batman
Alpha Chain
Fan First Premiere Exclusively In IMAX Seat Report: T-5 days
           
2/24/2022 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 181 182 46,758 56,572 82.65%
           
ATP          
$23.36          

 

 

 

The Batman
Alpha Chain
Investor Connect Screening Seat Report: T-6 days
           
2/24/2022 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 205 206 26,657 39,928 66.76%
           
ATP          
$19.37          

 

 

 

The Batman
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days
           
  Last Day 2 Days Ago 3 Days Ago 4 Days Ago 5 Days Ago
Showings Added 0 6 80 7 9
Seats Added 0 1,566 9,387 599 997
Seats Sold 4,203 4,152 4,958 3,337 2,810
           
2/24/2022 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 429 5,358 139,002 932,434 14.91%
           
% of Seats Sold Sellouts 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+
# of Showings 0 9 45 158 303
           
ATP          
$16.95        

 

Thursday Only:

.235x NWH T-7

 

Thursday Only ATP Weighted:

.270x NWH T-7

 

All Previews:

.359x NWH T-7

 

All Previews ATP Weighted:

.455x NWH T-7

 

 

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18 minutes ago, ZackM said:

The Batman
Alpha Chain
Fan First Premiere Exclusively In IMAX Seat Report: T-5 days
           
2/24/2022 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 181 182 46,758 56,572 82.65%
           
ATP          
$23.36          

 

 

 

The Batman
Alpha Chain
Investor Connect Screening Seat Report: T-6 days
           
2/24/2022 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 205 206 26,657 39,928 66.76%
           
ATP          
$19.37          

 

 

 

The Batman
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days
           
  Last Day 2 Days Ago 3 Days Ago 4 Days Ago 5 Days Ago
Showings Added 0 6 80 7 9
Seats Added 0 1,566 9,387 599 997
Seats Sold 4,203 4,152 4,958 3,337 2,810
           
2/24/2022 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold
Total 429 5,358 139,002 932,434 14.91%
           
% of Seats Sold Sellouts 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+
# of Showings 0 9 45 158 303
           
ATP          
$16.95        

 

Thursday Only:

.235x NWH T-7

 

Thursday Only ATP Weighted:

.270x NWH T-7

 

All Previews:

.359x NWH T-7

 

All Previews ATP Weighted:

.455x NWH T-7

 

 

 

 

Accelerating like Usain Bolt 40 meters into the 100m 😎

 

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On 2/23/2022 at 11:03 PM, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

The Batman Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 2 181 5767 35535 16.23%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 221

 

Comp

2.298x of Black Widow T-8 (30.33M)

2.892x of Eternals T-8 (27.48M)

0.323x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-8 (16.16M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.379x of Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker T-8 (15.17M)

 

Okay, I think we're escalating y'all

The Batman Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 2 181 5977 35535 16.82%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 210

 

Comp

2.261x of Black Widow T-7 (29.84M)

2.852x of Eternals T-7 (27.09M)

0.325x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-7 (16.28M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.385x of Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker T-7 (15.41M)

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23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Batman Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days and counting

 

 

Capped

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

1

0

297

31814

36790

4976

13.53%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

175

 

T-8 Unadjusted Comps 

 

   %

 

Sold T-8

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

NTTD

424.57

 

134

1172

 

0/144

21181/22353

5.24%

 

26.32m

Dune

506.72

 

82

982

 

0/78

11060/12042

8.15%

 

25.84m

ET

192.42

 

101

2586

 

0/100

13230/15816

16.35%

 

18.28m

NWH

27.30

 

390

18229

 

0/325

20891/39120

46.60%

 

13.65m

 

T-8 Adjusted Comp 

 

   %

 

Sold T-9

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

BW

139.71

 

204

3473

 

0/151

19486/22959

15.13%

 

19.31m

Bats (BW adj)

---

 

171

4852

 

0/276

29662/34514

14.06%

 

---

COMP NOTE: The Batman comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: Bats (BW adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theater which still had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in BW's track.  That last holdout will be returning to the comp starting tomorrow.

 

Tuesday Sales:        666/815     [81.72 sold]      [+2 tickets]

Wednesday Sales: 1026/1301   [78.862% sold] [+11 tickets]

Thursday Sales:   3122/34674  [9.00% sold]   [+162 tickets]

---

Regal:  1252/11645  [10.75% sold] [+38 tickets]

Matinee: 218/4893   [4.46% | 4.38% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Me waiting for "takeoff", locally:

 

spanky-im-waiting.gif

 

====

 

Still creeping upward locally, but no sign of "takeoff".  Do think none of the comps are really good right now since all of them had socials and reviews out by now (with the exception of NWH, IIRC, but that's its own beast).

 

The Black Widow comp took a hit from the residual after effects of its review drop + the bringing back online of two of the Cinema West locations that were giving me fits at the time.  The last one comes back online tomorrow, so as of then everything will be an unadjusted comp once more.

 

Did go ahead and rope in No Time to Die and Dune, but as one can see from the pace, those comps will be coming down as well.

 

FTR, I did check out The Suicide Squad, as requested by @charlie JatinderThe Batman  is currently at 10.68x TSS as of T-8, or 43.78m. :jeb!:

 

Yeah, no. :hahaha:

 

Is what it is, locally.  No real way of knowing what's going on until the dust settles and I can see if we just have a different sales pattern here (or total for that matter) when it comes to DC films.

 

The Batman Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days and counting

 

 

Capped

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

1

0

297

31608

36790

5182

14.09%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

206

 

T-7 Unadjusted Comps 

 

   %

 

Sold T-7

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

BW

135.87

 

151

3814

 

0/177

21748/25562

14.92%

 

18.77m

NTTD

398.00

 

130

1302

 

0/144

21051/22353

5.82%

 

24.68m

Dune

494.47

 

66

1048

 

0/79

11280/12328

8.50%

 

25.22m

ET

195.33

 

67

2653

 

0/101

13315/15968

16.61%

 

18.56m

NWH

27.75

 

445

18674

 

0/325

20446/39120

47.74%

 

13.87m

 

 

Tuesday Sales:        677/815     [83.07% sold]   [+11 tickets]

Wednesday Sales: 1026/1301   [79.89% sold]   [+13 tickets]

Thursday Sales:   3466/34674  [9.00% sold]   [+182 tickets]

---

Regal:  1312/11645  [11.27% sold] [+60 tickets]

Matinee: 232/4893   [4.74% | 4.48% of all tickets sold]

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27 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

The Batman Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days and counting

 

 

Capped

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

1

0

297

31608

36790

5182

14.09%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

206

 

T-7 Unadjusted Comps 

 

   %

 

Sold T-7

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

BW

135.87

 

151

3814

 

0/177

21748/25562

14.92%

 

18.77m

NTTD

398.00

 

130

1302

 

0/144

21051/22353

5.82%

 

24.68m

Dune

494.47

 

66

1048

 

0/79

11280/12328

8.50%

 

25.22m

ET

195.33

 

67

2653

 

0/101

13315/15968

16.61%

 

18.56m

NWH

27.75

 

445

18674

 

0/325

20446/39120

47.74%

 

13.87m

 

 

Tuesday Sales:        677/815     [83.07% sold]   [+11 tickets]

Wednesday Sales: 1026/1301   [79.89% sold]   [+13 tickets]

Thursday Sales:   3466/34674  [9.00% sold]   [+182 tickets]

---

Regal:  1312/11645  [11.27% sold] [+60 tickets]

Matinee: 232/4893   [4.74% | 4.48% of all tickets sold]

Really good imo. With reviews and reaction yet to come it's locked for 20m previews. 

 

Black Widow reaction were meh and it also has Premiere access and Batman is outperforming it by large margin 

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1 hour ago, Madhuvan said:

Really good imo. With reviews and reaction yet to come it's locked for 20m previews. 

 

Black Widow reaction were meh and it also has Premiere access and Batman is outperforming it by large margin 

 

Weelllllll, the encouraging thing is that the comp against BW* and ET rose tonight, and that's before any concerted buzz from various critic screenings occurred.  Plus lots of attention being on Ukraine.

 

*It might appear that the BW comp went down, but that's due to all theaters now being tracked on the BW side.  As a pure day to day comp, 206/151 is 1.364x and the comp is currently at 1.359x, so by definition it actually rose, if ever so slightly.  Not the biggest difference in the world, but it's better than it has been.

 

As for "Black Widow reactions were meh"?  IMO, that's showing up more for EternalsEternals got a bad review bump locally and that's allowing The Batman to accelerate on Eternals once again (today's pace was 3.07x).  Fri and Sat were no great shakes for Eternals either, at 97 and 99 tickets sold respectively, so Batsy should do rather well against it.  Presuming today wasn't a blip/bump for whatever reason.

 

Either way, the way I would put it is that today was an encouraging day for The Batman locally.  Best day since the first couple of days of sales, probably.  Beyond that?  Well, talk to me in 48 to 72 hours. ;)

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Been thinking about this for a while — I know that presentation real estate isn’t free, but I think a “final tickets sold” column could be pretty useful @Porthos. Makes it much easier to tell at a glance how many were sold from the present day to the end compared to how many have been sold recently, and what the implications will be if it runs at X% pace.

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https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-the-lost-city/

 

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Low/High Range Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week Estimated Location Count Distributor
3/4/2022 The Batman $130,000,000 – $170,000,000 -10% $330,000,000 – $475,000,000 -9% TBD xx Warner Bros. Pictures
3/11/2022 (no wide releases scheduled)            
3/18/2022 The Outfit n/a   n/a     Focus Features
3/18/2022 The Unbreakable Boy n/a   n/a     Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company
3/18/2022 Umma n/a   n/a     Sony / Stage 6 Films
3/18/2022 X n/a   n/a     A24
3/25/2022 The Lost City $15,000,000 – $25,000,000 NEW $45,000,000 – $85,000,000 NEW   Paramount Pictures
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8 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

Pro failing to account for review and embargo bumps in pre-sales? 


They would have already taken that into account from the beginning. They don’t really pay attention to our tracking anyway, they have their own model.

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On 2/18/2022 at 4:15 PM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Theaters Shows Change Standard PLF IMAX
Uncharted 3,358 85,247   73,343 11,904 3,356
Dog 3,099 48,752   48,647 105 0
Marry Me 3,166 35,677 -32.91% 35,604 73 0
Death on the Nile 2,953 35,281 -37.84% 35,104 177 24
Jackass Forever 2,751 33,579 -31.60% 33,203 376 0
Spider-Man 2,578 26,948 -13.89% 26,785 163 0
Blacklight 2472 23219 -31.15% 23174 45 0
The Cursed 1,609 20,717   20,665 52 0
Sing 2 2,105 15,759 -31.96% 15,698 61 0
Moonfall 1,893 14,816 -58.07% 14,701 115 0
Scream 5 1,651 13,627 -40.70% 13,596 31 0
Encanto 1,186 7,126 399.02% 7,118 8 0
Licorice Pizza 1,164 5,236 -68.29% 5,236 0 0
West Side Story 871 4,623 151.11% 4,623 0 0
Belfast 396 1,717 -66.48% 1,717 0 0
Redeeming Love 198 1,145 -72.67% 1,134 11 0

 

US showtime sample for 2/18/22 weekend

 

OW shows comps

Uncharted - 85,247

 - Dune - 82,661

 - Scream 5 - 85,504

 

Dog - 48,752

 - Dear Evan Hansen - 50,762

 - West Side Story - 54,697

 

The Cursed - 20,717

 - Journal for Jordan - 19,572

 

Future Releases

 

T-1 Week

 

Studio 666 - 13,939 (1,254 TC)

 - Malignant - 13,975 (1,363)

 - Nightmare Alley - 14,207 (1,231)

 

Cyrano - 5,263 (471)

 - Licorice Pizza - 5,632 (607)

 

T-2 Week Previews

Batman (Tuesday) - 358 (357)

Batman (Wednesday) - 489 (450)

Batman (Thursday) - 23,704 (2,907)

  - Spider-Man - 26,573 (2,835)

  - Eternals - 9,541 (2,473)

Movie Theaters Shows Change Standard PLF IMAX 3D
Uncharted 3,393 70,300 -17.53% 61,307 8,993 3,856 0
Dog 3,143 41,873 -14.11% 41,766 107 0 0
Death on the Nile 2,921 30,743 -12.86% 30,624 119 30 0
Studio 666 2,145 30,292   29,744 548 0 0
Jackass Forever 2,583 29,880 -11.02% 29,642 238 0 0
Spider-Man 2,555 26,839 -0.40% 26,647 192 0 63
Marry Me 2683 24635 -30.95% 24587 48 0 0
Sing 2 1,993 14,808 -6.03% 14,757 51 0 23
The Cursed 1,602 12,644 -38.97% 12,621 23 0 0
Scream 5 1,348 10,593 -22.26% 10,573 20 0 0
Blacklight 1,556 10,291 -55.68% 10,270 21 0 0
Cyrano 720 9,141   9,141 0 0 0
Moonfall 1,035 6,126 -58.65% 6,109 17 0 0
Worst Person  505 4,461   4,461 0 0 0
Gangubai Kathiawadi 453 3,904   3,904 0 0 0
Butter 296 3,527   3,527 0 0 0
Bheemla Nayak 364 3,220   3,212 8 0 0
Encanto 619 3,139 -55.95% 3,123 16 0 9
Oscar Nominated Shorts 300 3,081   3,070 11 0 0
Licorice Pizza 483 2,423 -53.72% 2,423 0 0 0
West Side Story 577 2,371 -48.71% 2,371 0 0 0
Valimai 226 1,580   1,577 3 0 0

 

US showtime sample for 2/25/22 weekend

 

OW shows comps

Studio 666 - 30,292

 - Green Knight - 30,531

 - The Last Duel - 32,124

 

Cyrano - 9,141

 - Mouthful of Air - 9,282

 - Red Notice - 8,655

 

Future Releases

 

T-1 Week

Batman (Tuesday) - 359 (358)

Batman (Wednesday) - 501 (462)

Batman (Thursday) - 25,272 (3,125)

  - Spider-Man - 31,815 (3,060)

  - Venom 2 - 15,596 (2,716)

  - Eternals - 10,879 (2,842)

Batman Full (Tue-Sun) - 125,394 (3,125)

  - Spider-Man - 135,877 (3,146)

  - Eternals - 71,800 (2,852)

 

I don't have Black Widow T-1, but its final count was 156,781 in 3,409 theaters.

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7 hours ago, Madhuvan said:

Really good imo. With reviews and reaction yet to come it's locked for 20m previews. 

 

Black Widow reaction were meh and it also has Premiere access and Batman is outperforming it by large margin 

If I recall correctly BW bumped the very next day into the 200s so Batman will need another good bump to keep pace.

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