The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Alpha is the biggest chain and its doing extremely well. MTC2 tends to be more backend loaded. Sacremento does not have any Alpha theaters(or just 1). So its definitely not representative of overall market.

I don't think chains determine sub regions performance but sub regions those chains are set do.

 

Alpha has bigger presence on East coast which is home to New York where stuff like Joker, Dune, etc overindex.

 

While MTC2 is bigger in West Coast & South West, with diverse population demo. They do overindex for some films & that does make MTC 2 sometime have better sales than Alpha like Venom 2, F9, Halloween, etc

[DAJK]

So Cyrano is absolutely TANKING tonight in my entire region. Even in markets where you would normally expect it to do well. Hopefully the weekend walkups are strong, but it's not looking good right now. 

[snarkmachine]

2 minutes ago, DAJK said:

So Cyrano is absolutely TANKING tonight in my entire region. Even in markets where you would normally expect it to do well. Hopefully the weekend walkups are strong, but it's not looking good right now. 

 

I saw this and I thought it was really dull lol, although the bungled release strategy can't have helped. Can't wait for Joe Wright to get back in his Atonement era. 

[filmlover]

10 minutes ago, DAJK said:

So Cyrano is absolutely TANKING tonight in my entire region. Even in markets where you would normally expect it to do well. Hopefully the weekend walkups are strong, but it's not looking good right now. 

Not surprised. The movie was left for dead once it became clear it was going nowhere awards-wise between all the release date changes.

[ZackM]

The Batman Alpha Chain Fan First Premiere Exclusively In IMAX Seat Report: T-5 days
2/24/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	181	182	46,758	56,572	82.65%
ATP
$23.36

 

 

 

The Batman Alpha Chain Investor Connect Screening Seat Report: T-6 days
2/24/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	205	206	26,657	39,928	66.76%
ATP
$19.37

 

 

 

The Batman Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	6	80	7	9
Seats Added	0	1,566	9,387	599	997
Seats Sold	4,203	4,152	4,958	3,337	2,810
2/24/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	429	5,358	139,002	932,434	14.91%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	9	45	158	303
ATP
$16.95

 

Thursday Only:

.235x NWH T-7

 

Thursday Only ATP Weighted:

.270x NWH T-7

 

All Previews:

.359x NWH T-7

 

All Previews ATP Weighted:

.455x NWH T-7

 

 

[excel1]

18 minutes ago, ZackM said:

The Batman Alpha Chain Fan First Premiere Exclusively In IMAX Seat Report: T-5 days
2/24/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	181	182	46,758	56,572	82.65%
ATP
$23.36

 

 

 

The Batman Alpha Chain Investor Connect Screening Seat Report: T-6 days
2/24/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	205	206	26,657	39,928	66.76%
ATP
$19.37

 

 

 

The Batman Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	6	80	7	9
Seats Added	0	1,566	9,387	599	997
Seats Sold	4,203	4,152	4,958	3,337	2,810
2/24/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	429	5,358	139,002	932,434	14.91%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	9	45	158	303
ATP
$16.95

 

Thursday Only:

.235x NWH T-7

 

Thursday Only ATP Weighted:

.270x NWH T-7

 

All Previews:

.359x NWH T-7

 

All Previews ATP Weighted:

.455x NWH T-7

 

 

 

 

Accelerating like Usain Bolt 40 meters into the 100m 😎

 

[Eric S'ennui]

On 2/23/2022 at 11:03 PM, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

The Batman Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	181	5767	35535	16.23%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 221

 

Comp

2.298x of Black Widow T-8 (30.33M)

2.892x of Eternals T-8 (27.48M)

0.323x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-8 (16.16M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.379x of Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker T-8 (15.17M)

 

Okay, I think we're escalating y'all

The Batman Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	181	5977	35535	16.82%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 210

 

Comp

2.261x of Black Widow T-7 (29.84M)

2.852x of Eternals T-7 (27.09M)

0.325x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-7 (16.28M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.385x of Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker T-7 (15.41M)

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Batman Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	0	297	31814	36790	4976	13.53%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

175

 

T-8 Unadjusted Comps 

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
NTTD	424.57		134	1172		0/144	21181/22353	5.24%		26.32m
Dune	506.72		82	982		0/78	11060/12042	8.15%		25.84m
ET	192.42		101	2586		0/100	13230/15816	16.35%		18.28m
NWH	27.30		390	18229		0/325	20891/39120	46.60%		13.65m

 

T-8 Adjusted Comp 

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	139.71		204	3473		0/151	19486/22959	15.13%		19.31m
Bats (BW adj)	---		171	4852		0/276	29662/34514	14.06%		---

COMP NOTE: The Batman comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: Bats (BW adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theater which still had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in BW's track.  That last holdout will be returning to the comp starting tomorrow.

 

Tuesday Sales:        666/815     [81.72 sold]      [+2 tickets]

Wednesday Sales: 1026/1301   [78.862% sold] [+11 tickets]

Thursday Sales:   3122/34674  [9.00% sold]   [+162 tickets]

---

Regal:  1252/11645  [10.75% sold] [+38 tickets]

Matinee: 218/4893   [4.46% | 4.38% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Me waiting for "takeoff", locally:

 

 

====

 

Still creeping upward locally, but no sign of "takeoff".  Do think none of the comps are really good right now since all of them had socials and reviews out by now (with the exception of NWH, IIRC, but that's its own beast).

 

The Black Widow comp took a hit from the residual after effects of its review drop + the bringing back online of two of the Cinema West locations that were giving me fits at the time.  The last one comes back online tomorrow, so as of then everything will be an unadjusted comp once more.

 

Did go ahead and rope in No Time to Die and Dune, but as one can see from the pace, those comps will be coming down as well.

 

FTR, I did check out The Suicide Squad, as requested by @charlie Jatinder.  The Batman  is currently at 10.68x TSS as of T-8, or 43.78m. 

 

Yeah, no. 

 

Is what it is, locally.  No real way of knowing what's going on until the dust settles and I can see if we just have a different sales pattern here (or total for that matter) when it comes to DC films.

 

The Batman Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	0	297	31608	36790	5182	14.09%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

206

 

T-7 Unadjusted Comps 

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	135.87		151	3814		0/177	21748/25562	14.92%		18.77m
NTTD	398.00		130	1302		0/144	21051/22353	5.82%		24.68m
Dune	494.47		66	1048		0/79	11280/12328	8.50%		25.22m
ET	195.33		67	2653		0/101	13315/15968	16.61%		18.56m
NWH	27.75		445	18674		0/325	20446/39120	47.74%		13.87m

 

 

Tuesday Sales:        677/815     [83.07% sold]   [+11 tickets]

Wednesday Sales: 1026/1301   [79.89% sold]   [+13 tickets]

Thursday Sales:   3466/34674  [9.00% sold]   [+182 tickets]

---

Regal:  1312/11645  [11.27% sold] [+60 tickets]

Matinee: 232/4893   [4.74% | 4.48% of all tickets sold]

[Madhuvan]

27 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

The Batman Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	0	297	31608	36790	5182	14.09%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

206

 

T-7 Unadjusted Comps 

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	135.87		151	3814		0/177	21748/25562	14.92%		18.77m
NTTD	398.00		130	1302		0/144	21051/22353	5.82%		24.68m
Dune	494.47		66	1048		0/79	11280/12328	8.50%		25.22m
ET	195.33		67	2653		0/101	13315/15968	16.61%		18.56m
NWH	27.75		445	18674		0/325	20446/39120	47.74%		13.87m

 

 

Tuesday Sales:        677/815     [83.07% sold]   [+11 tickets]

Wednesday Sales: 1026/1301   [79.89% sold]   [+13 tickets]

Thursday Sales:   3466/34674  [9.00% sold]   [+182 tickets]

---

Regal:  1312/11645  [11.27% sold] [+60 tickets]

Matinee: 232/4893   [4.74% | 4.48% of all tickets sold]

Really good imo. With reviews and reaction yet to come it's locked for 20m previews. 

 

Black Widow reaction were meh and it also has Premiere access and Batman is outperforming it by large margin 

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Madhuvan said:

Really good imo. With reviews and reaction yet to come it's locked for 20m previews. 

 

Black Widow reaction were meh and it also has Premiere access and Batman is outperforming it by large margin 

 

Weelllllll, the encouraging thing is that the comp against BW* and ET rose tonight, and that's before any concerted buzz from various critic screenings occurred.  Plus lots of attention being on Ukraine.

 

*It might appear that the BW comp went down, but that's due to all theaters now being tracked on the BW side.  As a pure day to day comp, 206/151 is 1.364x and the comp is currently at 1.359x, so by definition it actually rose, if ever so slightly.  Not the biggest difference in the world, but it's better than it has been.

 

As for "Black Widow reactions were meh"?  IMO, that's showing up more for Eternals.  Eternals got a bad review bump locally and that's allowing The Batman to accelerate on Eternals once again (today's pace was 3.07x).  Fri and Sat were no great shakes for Eternals either, at 97 and 99 tickets sold respectively, so Batsy should do rather well against it.  Presuming today wasn't a blip/bump for whatever reason.

 

Either way, the way I would put it is that today was an encouraging day for The Batman locally.  Best day since the first couple of days of sales, probably.  Beyond that?  Well, talk to me in 48 to 72 hours.

[Legion Again]

Been thinking about this for a while — I know that presentation real estate isn’t free, but I think a “final tickets sold” column could be pretty useful @Porthos. Makes it much easier to tell at a glance how many were sold from the present day to the end compared to how many have been sold recently, and what the implications will be if it runs at X% pace.

[Eric S'ennui]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-the-lost-city/

 

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Estimated Location Count	Distributor
3/4/2022	The Batman	$130,000,000 – $170,000,000	-10%	$330,000,000 – $475,000,000	-9%	TBD xx	Warner Bros. Pictures
3/11/2022	(no wide releases scheduled)
3/18/2022	The Outfit	n/a		n/a			Focus Features
3/18/2022	The Unbreakable Boy	n/a		n/a			Lionsgate / Kingdom Story Company
3/18/2022	Umma	n/a		n/a			Sony / Stage 6 Films
3/18/2022	X	n/a		n/a			A24
3/25/2022	The Lost City	$15,000,000 – $25,000,000	NEW	$45,000,000 – $85,000,000	NEW		Paramount Pictures

[Tokugennumataka]

Pro failing to account for review and embargo bumps in pre-sales? 

[XXR vs XXR]

8 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

Pro failing to account for review and embargo bumps in pre-sales? 

They would have already taken that into account from the beginning. They don’t really pay attention to our tracking anyway, they have their own model.

[Legion Again]

16 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

Pro failing to account for review and embargo bumps in pre-sales? 

Man, they just gave a very high range. They are *counting on* those, not failing t account for them!

[charlie Jatinder]

Thought of doing Harkins. They now have nearly 500 shows. Yeah am not doing that 👀

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 2/18/2022 at 4:15 PM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Theaters	Shows	Change	Standard	PLF	IMAX
Uncharted	3,358	85,247		73,343	11,904	3,356
Dog	3,099	48,752		48,647	105	0
Marry Me	3,166	35,677	-32.91%	35,604	73	0
Death on the Nile	2,953	35,281	-37.84%	35,104	177	24
Jackass Forever	2,751	33,579	-31.60%	33,203	376	0
Spider-Man	2,578	26,948	-13.89%	26,785	163	0
Blacklight	2472	23219	-31.15%	23174	45	0
The Cursed	1,609	20,717		20,665	52	0
Sing 2	2,105	15,759	-31.96%	15,698	61	0
Moonfall	1,893	14,816	-58.07%	14,701	115	0
Scream 5	1,651	13,627	-40.70%	13,596	31	0
Encanto	1,186	7,126	399.02%	7,118	8	0
Licorice Pizza	1,164	5,236	-68.29%	5,236	0	0
West Side Story	871	4,623	151.11%	4,623	0	0
Belfast	396	1,717	-66.48%	1,717	0	0
Redeeming Love	198	1,145	-72.67%	1,134	11	0

 

US showtime sample for 2/18/22 weekend

 

OW shows comps

Uncharted - 85,247

 - Dune - 82,661

 - Scream 5 - 85,504

 

Dog - 48,752

 - Dear Evan Hansen - 50,762

 - West Side Story - 54,697

 

The Cursed - 20,717

 - Journal for Jordan - 19,572

 

Future Releases

 

T-1 Week

 

Studio 666 - 13,939 (1,254 TC)

 - Malignant - 13,975 (1,363)

 - Nightmare Alley - 14,207 (1,231)

 

Cyrano - 5,263 (471)

 - Licorice Pizza - 5,632 (607)

 

T-2 Week Previews

Batman (Tuesday) - 358 (357)

Batman (Wednesday) - 489 (450)

Batman (Thursday) - 23,704 (2,907)

  - Spider-Man - 26,573 (2,835)

  - Eternals - 9,541 (2,473)

Movie	Theaters	Shows	Change	Standard	PLF	IMAX	3D
Uncharted	3,393	70,300	-17.53%	61,307	8,993	3,856	0
Dog	3,143	41,873	-14.11%	41,766	107	0	0
Death on the Nile	2,921	30,743	-12.86%	30,624	119	30	0
Studio 666	2,145	30,292		29,744	548	0	0
Jackass Forever	2,583	29,880	-11.02%	29,642	238	0	0
Spider-Man	2,555	26,839	-0.40%	26,647	192	0	63
Marry Me	2683	24635	-30.95%	24587	48	0	0
Sing 2	1,993	14,808	-6.03%	14,757	51	0	23
The Cursed	1,602	12,644	-38.97%	12,621	23	0	0
Scream 5	1,348	10,593	-22.26%	10,573	20	0	0
Blacklight	1,556	10,291	-55.68%	10,270	21	0	0
Cyrano	720	9,141		9,141	0	0	0
Moonfall	1,035	6,126	-58.65%	6,109	17	0	0
Worst Person	505	4,461		4,461	0	0	0
Gangubai Kathiawadi	453	3,904		3,904	0	0	0
Butter	296	3,527		3,527	0	0	0
Bheemla Nayak	364	3,220		3,212	8	0	0
Encanto	619	3,139	-55.95%	3,123	16	0	9
Oscar Nominated Shorts	300	3,081		3,070	11	0	0
Licorice Pizza	483	2,423	-53.72%	2,423	0	0	0
West Side Story	577	2,371	-48.71%	2,371	0	0	0
Valimai	226	1,580		1,577	3	0	0

 

US showtime sample for 2/25/22 weekend

 

OW shows comps

Studio 666 - 30,292

 - Green Knight - 30,531

 - The Last Duel - 32,124

 

Cyrano - 9,141

 - Mouthful of Air - 9,282

 - Red Notice - 8,655

 

Future Releases

 

T-1 Week

Batman (Tuesday) - 359 (358)

Batman (Wednesday) - 501 (462)

Batman (Thursday) - 25,272 (3,125)

  - Spider-Man - 31,815 (3,060)

  - Venom 2 - 15,596 (2,716)

  - Eternals - 10,879 (2,842)

Batman Full (Tue-Sun) - 125,394 (3,125)

  - Spider-Man - 135,877 (3,146)

  - Eternals - 71,800 (2,852)

 

I don't have Black Widow T-1, but its final count was 156,781 in 3,409 theaters.

[snarkmachine]

15-25 for Lost City seems on the low end? Hope it can pick up. Anyone have any idea about the budget? Bullock and Pitt don't come cheap.

[Menor the Destroyer]

7 hours ago, Madhuvan said:

Really good imo. With reviews and reaction yet to come it's locked for 20m previews. 

 

Black Widow reaction were meh and it also has Premiere access and Batman is outperforming it by large margin 

If I recall correctly BW bumped the very next day into the 200s so Batman will need another good bump to keep pace.

[dudalb]

17 hours ago, excel1 said:

They need to release them when social media is not preoccupied with Ukraine. Give it a few days.

Ukraine is going to domiinate social media for the next couple of weeks and probably beyond.