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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

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Posted by Shawn Robbins,

PSA:   As a heads up to everyone, we'll be starting a new thread here very soon. For those who are newer to the forum, we typically have to split threads once they reach 1,000+ pages and are still highly active. In the past, such topics have created database slowdown issues that affect the entire forum.   Rest assured, this thread will be archived when it is locked and a link to the new one will be posted to help you find it easily (it will also be pinned to the top of the box o
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Posted by XXR & Friends,

Yea we're gonna drop all this non tracking stuff. That expressly means you, @excel1. Next post from you that isn't tracking related is a thread ban.    Anyone else continues, it's points. 

We're all tired of the non-tracking related thread derailments. This is your fair warning.

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BestPicturePlutoNash Box Office Gold

BestPicturePlutoNash

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, boogiezen888 said:

According to Variety, The Northman” is projected to earn $10 million to $15 million in its first three days of release.

Not bad for a film that is R-rated with 3,000 theatres.

That'd be nice but I still think 10m will be lucky. 

 

Cinemark finally went on sale for it

 

Thursday: (2)

7 (2), 1015 (0)

Friday: (5)

1210 (0), 325 (0), 640 (5), 955 (0)

 

Some promising movement for Friday night but again, not nearly enough conclusive evidence for confidence

 

Massive Talent

Thursday (2)

6 (2), 9 (0), 1020 (0)

Friday (3)

1 (0), 355 (3), 650 (0), 945 (0)

 

Not huge separation between the two

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ThatWaluigiDude Box Office Gold

ThatWaluigiDude

Posted
Posted

After all, does anyone knows what is the budget of Massive Talent? Because, like, if we are talking about a $15M movie or something, the opening would still be bad don't get me wrong, but it wouldn't be like tragic or anything. It would fall on a hole similar to Father Stu, where the opening is weak but it could maybe still recover.

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Ledmonkey96 Box Office Gold

Ledmonkey96

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Ezen Baklattan said:

BoxOffice.com has..

 

SONIC THE HEDGEHOG 2 - $19.7M

FANTASTIC BEASTS - $16.2M

BAD GUYS - $14.8M

NORTHMAN - $9.6M

UNBEARABLE WEIGHT - $7.2M

 

 

 

Not sure i buy a 33% drop for Sonic after how it dropped last week during a holiday weekend when it's got direct competition for kids this week even if Bad Guys won't do that well itself.

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filmlover Cinematic Universe

filmlover

Posted
Posted
42 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Im trying to understand what Unbearable Weight is supposed to be? A passion product of Cage? A meta-commentary "look at us make fun of hollywood" type movie? Something else? 

A combination of the two, like kinda like This Is the End. Of course, Cage's days as a superstar (or even somewhat of a multiplex draw) are long behind him so even with a better studio I think it was destined to be niche in appeal.

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Doctor Strange 2 Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total 1440 3886 37.06%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 1074 3590 29.92%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
6989 145 39205 17.83% 15 271

 

AMCs sold 4187
Cinemarks sold 1182
Regals sold 917
Harkins sold 703

 

2.25x Batman T-16 (48.49M)

0.673x NWH T-16 (33.63M)

 

0.807x Batman Final (17.42M)

0.302x NWH Final (15.09M)

1.57x Eternals Final (14.91M)

1.73x Shang-Chi Final (15.24M)

1.10x Black Widow Final (14.50M)

Doctor Strange 2 Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total 1468 3886 37.78%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 1102 3590 30.70%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
7158 169 40083 17.86% 15 281

 

AMCs sold 4296
Cinemarks sold 1193
Regals sold 942
Harkins sold 727

 

0.643x NWH T-15 (32.14M)

 

0.826x Batman Final (17.85M)

0.309x NWH Final (15.45M)

1.61x Eternals Final (15.27M)

1.77x Shang-Chi Final (15.61M)

1.13x Black Widow Final (14.85M)

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Doctor Strange 2 Megaplex

 

T-16 Thursday(190 showings): 7607(+210)/46994

1.95x Batman T-16 (42.03M)

0.501x NWH T-16 (25.07M)

 

0.709x Batman Final (15.32M)

0.232x NWH Final (11.60M)

 

T-17 Friday(280 showings): 4053(+190)/71633

0.412x NWH T-17 (29.64M)

 

0.370x Batman Final (12.95M)

0.131x NWH Final (9.43M)

 

T-18 Saturday(288 showings): 2261(+117)/71920

0.530x NWH T-18 (39.17M)

 

0.206x Batman Final (8.92M)

0.074x NWH Final (5.46M)

 

T-19 Sunday(265 showings): 539(+14)/67700

0.652x NWH T-19 (41.85M)

Doctor Strange 2 Megaplex

 

T-15 Thursday(190 showings): 7833(+226)/46994

0.484x NWH T-15 (24.20M)

 

0.730x Batman Final (15.78M)

0.239x NWH Final (11.94M)

 

T-16 Friday(280 showings): 4199(+146)/71633

0.395x NWH T-16 (28.41M)

 

0.383x Batman Final (13.42M)

0.136x NWH Final (9.77M)

 

T-17 Saturday(288 showings): 2340(+79)/71920

0.472x NWH T-17 (34.88M)

 

0.213x Batman Final (9.23M)

0.077x NWH Final (5.66M)

 

T-18 Sunday(265 showings): 557(+18)/67700

0.586x NWH T-18 (37.61M)

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Pinacolada Box Office Gold

Pinacolada

Posted
Posted

I think years of Nic Cage doing a lot of VOD or straight to DVD movies has made the overall consensus among general audiences that he is a bad actor. So I think his return to being a lead in a studio movie just isn't attracting people who have become fully convinced he's just a bad actor. Hoping the budget is like $15m, and that it can do decent. There seems to be a slight action element to the movie, so I'm hoping that doesn't balloon the budget to like $25m

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Doctor Strange 2 Drafthouse

 

T-16 Thursday(206 showings): 15614(+256)/30665 ATP: $15.24

2.16x Batman T-16 (46.64M)

0.719x NWH T-16 (35.95M)

 

0.732x Batman Final (15.80M)

0.402x NWH Final (20.12M)

 

T-17 Friday(280 showings): 13237(+340)/41170 ATP: $15.18

0.782x NWH T-17 (56.25M)

 

0.458x Batman Final (16.02M)

0.310x NWH Final (22.32M)

 

T-18 Saturday(286 showings): 13704(+413)/42330 ATP: $14.61

0.972x NWH T-18 (71.83M)

 

0.394x Batman Final (17.05M)

0.272x NWH Final (20.13M)

 

T-19 Sunday(270 showings): 6459(+253)/40026 ATP: $14.29

1.13x NWH T-19 (72.52M)

Doctor Strange 2 Drafthouse

 

T-15 Thursday(206 showings): 15808(+194)/30665 ATP: $15.25

0.693x NWH T-15 (34.63M)

 

0.741x Batman Final (16.00M)

0.407x NWH Final (20.37M)

 

T-16 Friday(282 showings): 13568(+331)/41848 ATP: $15.17

0.731x NWH T-16 (52.59M)

 

0.469x Batman Final (16.42M)

0.318x NWH Final (22.87M)

 

T-17 Saturday(287 showings): 14127(+423)/42878 ATP: $14.60

0.878x NWH T-17 (64.87M)

 

0.406x Batman Final (17.58M)

0.281x NWH Final (20.75M)

 

T-18 Sunday(270 showings): 6636(+177)/40026 ATP: $14.30

0.926x NWH T-18 (59.43M)

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misterpepp Sleeper Hit

misterpepp

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

Not sure i buy a 33% drop for Sonic after how it dropped last week during a holiday weekend when it's got direct competition for kids this week even if Bad Guys won't do that well itself.

 

Seems it was just corrected to $17.3m, a -41% drop.

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DAJK Global Phenomenon

DAJK

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

I think Lionsgate is done.  Moonfall bombed and cost them millions.  They pulled The Unbreakable Boy from the schedule in March, sold off Shotgun Wedding to Amazon a couple weeks ago, their marketing ran a terrible campaign on The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent and now it appears the trailer for The Devil's Light has been removed.  

 

They are still the closing presentation at CinemaCon, but I can't imagine how or why.  

 

If I were them and I needed a guaranteed cash infusion, they should move up John Wick 4 to August.  It is reportedly done and ready to go.  

Whoever runs Lionsgate's tik tok account is far more talented than the entire rest of their marketing team unfortunately. 

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Eric the Minion Global Phenomenon

Eric the Minion

Posted
Posted
59 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

Not sure i buy a 33% drop for Sonic after how it dropped last week during a holiday weekend when it's got direct competition for kids this week even if Bad Guys won't do that well itself.

Kids movies typically hold well post-Easter. Sherlock Gnomes fell 22% the weekend after Easter, A Wrinkle in Time 32%, Boss Baby 21%, Beauty and the Beast 30%, Smurfs 27%. I guess families ignore moviegoing on Easter and are compensating the following week?

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CJohn Cinematic Universe

CJohn

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

I think Lionsgate is done.  Moonfall bombed and cost them millions.  They pulled The Unbreakable Boy from the schedule in March, sold off Shotgun Wedding to Amazon a couple weeks ago, their marketing ran a terrible campaign on The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent and now it appears the trailer for The Devil's Light has been removed.  

 

They are still the closing presentation at CinemaCon, but I can't imagine how or why.  

 

If I were them and I needed a guaranteed cash infusion, they should move up John Wick 4 to August.  It is reportedly done and ready to go.  

A shame to read this but expected. I am guessing other movies will be sold to streamers or maybe they will try to get bought by a studio/streamer. 

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Rorschach Summer Tentpole

Rorschach

Posted
Posted

The Bad Guys (Wednesday Night Outlook)
Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX
    Thursday:
        5:00 pm: 17/78
        6:25 pm: 15/85
        7:50 pm: 2/78
        9:15 pm: 0/85
        10:40 pm: 0/78
    Total Sold: 34/404 (8.4% sold)

 

Comps:
The Addams Family 2: $1.56 mil
Ron’s Gone Wrong: $1.36 mil
Encanto: $1.96 mil
Average: $1.63 mil
        
    Friday:
    3D showings:
        2:15 pm: 4/141
    2D showings:
        10:00 am: 0/78
        11:25 am: 4/141
        12:50 pm: 7/78
        3:40 pm: 9/78
        5:05 pm: 55/141
        6:30 pm: 40/78
        7:55 pm: 6/141
        9:20 pm: 3/78
        10:45 om: 0/141
    Total Sold: 128/1,095 (11.7% sold)

 

Thurs + Fri: 162/1,499 (10.8% sold)

 

Comps:
The Addams Family 2: $12.66 mil
Ron’s Gone Wrong: $13.25 mil
Encanto: $10.83 mil
Average: $12.25 mil

 

I dunno guys, I'd probably keep my eyes on this one. 

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Rorschach Summer Tentpole

Rorschach

Posted
Posted

The Northman (Wednesday Night Outlook)
Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX
    Thursday: 
        7:00 pm: 22/94
        10:25 pm: 1/94
    Total Sold: 23/188 (12.2% sold)

 

Comps:
The Green Knight: $466k
Dune: $787k
Average: $627k

 

    Friday:
        12:15 pm: 10/94
        3:45 pm: 19/94
        7:15 pm: 26/94
        10:45 pm: 1/94
    Total Sold: 56/376 (14.9% sold)

 

Thurs + Fri: 79/564 (14% sold)

 

Comps:
The Green Knight: $3.73 mil
Dune: $3.25 mil
Average: $3.49 mil

 

This will be a billion dollar grosser... in my heart. :whosad:

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