The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[el sid]

50 minutes ago, Maracles said:

I'm new to this forum and still trying to interpret the charts being posted and what they mean for a films predicted performance. Are things looking promising for Top Gun? I really want the film to be a success and kick-start a bit of a renaissance in old 80's / 90's style action cinema! 

Also, is there a beginners guide to understanding the charts anywhere? 

Thanks! 

Hello :). Overall it's looking very good for TG: M.

 

Normally we count the Thursday and/or the Friday presales that a film already has (= how many sold tickets e.g. TG: M has at certain theaters and certain regions e.g. 10 days before its release) and then we compare that number with the numbers of other similar (=e.g. same genre) films which were released weeks, months, years before and where we know what they actually made at the box office. 

[filmlover]

Bob's Burgers tickets are now on sale and it's being put in small theaters everywhere. Flop incoming.

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Downton 2	T-2	Jax	6	13	19	173	1,737	9.96%
		Phx	6	12	12	98	1,516	6.46%
		Ral	8	11	20	224	1,187	18.87%
	Total		20	36	51	495	4,440	11.15%
Downton 2 (EA)	T-1	Jax	6	6	33	186	783	23.75%
		Phx	7	7	35	157	706	22.24%
		Ral	8	9	49	293	879	33.33%
	Total		21	22	117	636	2,368	26.86%
JW3 Dominion	T-23	Jax	6	105	19	518	15,656	3.31%
		Phx	6	93	23	493	15,960	3.09%
		Ral	8	67	22	519	7,529	6.89%
	Total		20	265	64	1,530	39,145	3.91%
JW3+JP	T-23	Jax	2	2	2	111	225	49.33%
		Phx	5	5	1	277	564	49.11%
		Ral	2	2	0	89	188	47.34%
	Total		9	9	3	477	977	48.82%
Men	T-2	Jax	4	7	4	21	714	2.94%
		Phx	5	8	13	46	851	5.41%
		Ral	7	10	11	27	981	2.75%
	Total		16	25	28	94	2,546	3.69%
Top Gun 2	T-9	Jax	7	111	55	923	18,617	4.96%
		Phx	6	73	35	639	13,782	4.64%
		Ral	8	71	24	759	8,324	9.12%
	Total		21	255	114	2,321	40,723	5.70%
Top Gun 2 (EA)	T-7	Jax	5	7	22	481	961	50.05%
		Phx	1	1	0	165	208	79.33%
		Ral	2	2	2	287	412	69.66%
	Total		8	10	24	933	1,581	59.01%
Top Gun 2 (EA)	T-8	Jax	2	2	-2	95	245	38.78%
		Phx	2	2	2	92	434	21.20%
		Ral	1	1	2	38	118	32.20%
	Total		5	5	2	225	797	28.23%

 

Downton EA T-1 comps

 - Sonic EA - 1.67x (2.13m)

 - NTTD EA - missed

 - Respect EA - 2.4x

 - Lost City EA - 4.03x (3.02m) 

(21 out of 22 EA shows increased since yesterday)

 

Downton T-2 comps

 - No Time to Die - missed

 - House of Gucci - 1.61x (2.1m)

 - Sonic 2 - .46x (2.3m)

 - Lost City  - 1.42x (3.55m)

 - Ghostbusters - .454x (1.88m)

 

Downton + EA comp

 - Respect + EA - 4.14x (2.69m)

 

Men T-2 comps

 - X - 1.06x (465k)

 - Resident Evil - .676x (632k)

 - Night House - 3.92x (1.02m)

 - Firestarter - 1.06x (396k)

 

Top Gun (Thu) T-9 comps

 - Black Widow - .95x (12.49m)

 - F9 - 2.69x (19.07m)

 - Fantastic Beasts - 2.57x (15.4m)

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 - Shang-Chi - 2.38x (20.93m)

 - Batman (Thu) - .65x (11.42m)

 

Top Gun + EA comp

 - Batman + EA - .65x (14.04m)

 

JW3 final sales (T-1 hr) comps

 - F9 - .399x (2.83m)

 - Ghostbusters - .642x (2.66m)

 - NTTD - .56x (2.91m)

 - Dune - .556x (2.84m)

 

JW3 T-23 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.41x (18.6m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Bob's Burgers	T-8	Jax	6	15	33	33	1,542	2.14%
		Phx	6	17	40	40	2,342	1.71%
		Ral	7	16	36	36	1,317	2.73%
	Total		19	48	109	109	5,201	2.10%
Downton 2	T-1	Jax	6	14	8	181	1,935	9.35%
		Phx	6	15	2	100	2,008	4.98%
		Ral	8	13	26	250	1,523	16.41%
	Total		20	42	36	531	5,466	9.71%
Downton 2 (EA)	T-0	Jax	6	6	9	195	783	24.90%
		Phx	7	7	29	186	706	26.35%
		Ral	8	10	28	321	980	32.76%
	Total		21	23	66	702	2,469	28.43%
JW3 Dominion	T-22	Jax	6	105	7	525	15,656	3.35%
		Phx	6	93	8	501	15,960	3.14%
		Ral	8	67	13	532	7,529	7.07%
	Total		20	265	28	1,558	39,145	3.90%
JW3+JP	T-22	Jax	4	4	0	111	745	14.90%
		Phx	5	5	-2	275	564	48.76%
		Ral	4	4	2	91	410	22.20%
	Total		13	13	0	477	1,719	27.75%
Men	T-1	Jax	4	7	10	31	714	4.34%
		Phx	5	9	23	69	1,038	6.65%
		Ral	7	11	2	29	1,029	2.82%
	Total		16	27	35	129	2,781	4.64%
Top Gun 2	T-8	Jax	7	111	32	955	18,617	5.13%
		Phx	6	79	22	661	14,285	4.63%
		Ral	8	75	53	812	8,695	9.34%
	Total		21	265	107	2,428	41,597	5.84%
Top Gun 2 (EA)	T-6	Jax	5	8	37	518	1,166	44.43%
		Phx	1	1	1	166	208	79.81%
		Ral	2	2	2	289	412	70.15%
	Total		8	11	40	973	1,786	54.48%
Top Gun 2 (EA)	T-7	Jax	2	2	0	95	245	38.78%
		Phx	2	2	0	92	434	21.20%
		Ral	1	1	0	38	118	32.20%
	Total		5	5	0	225	797	28.23%

 

Downton EA T-0 comps

 - Sonic EA - 1.46x (1.85m)

 - NTTD EA - missed

 - Respect EA - 2.2x

 - Lost City EA - 2.73x (2.05m) 

 

Downton T-1 comps

 - No Time to Die - missed

 - House of Gucci - 1.46x (1.9m)

 - Sonic 2 - .38x (1.89m)

 - Lost City  - 1.1x (2.75m)

 - Ghostbusters - .38x (1.57m)

 

A bunch of locations added second shows for Thursday, and many of them were on a second screen and in the 7-8pm start times instead of adding a late show on the current screen.

 

Downton + EA comp

 - Respect + EA - 3.15x (2.05m)

 

Men T-1 comps

 - X - .95x (417k)

 - Resident Evil - .7x (656k)

 - Night House - 4.61x (1.2m)

 - Firestarter - 1.16x (436k)

 

Top Gun (Thu) T-8 comps

 - Black Widow - .93x (12.24m)

 - F9 - 2.7x (19.15m)

 - Fantastic Beasts - 2.33x (13.99m)

 - Ghostbusters - 4.43x (18.39m)

 - Shang-Chi - 2.23x (19.66m)

 - Batman (Thu) - missed

 

Top Gun + EA comp

 - Batman + EA - missed

 

Bob's Burgers T-8 comps

 - JJK0 - .282x (813k)

 - Ghostbusters - .199x (825k)

 

Not really sure what to use for comps here.  I noticed tickets being on sale yesterday, but didn't get around to setting it up until today.  If this is just one day of sales, it's pretty impressive.  

 

JW3 final sales (T-1 hr) comps

 - F9 - .406x (2.88m)

 - Ghostbusters - .654x (2.71m)

 - NTTD - .57x (2.97m)

 - Dune - .567x (2.89m)

 

JW3 T-22 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.2x (15.89m)

 - DS2 - .189x (6.81m)

[Eric Prime]

@katnisscinnaplex Jackass Forever is the perfect comp for Bob's Burgers IMO. Both are male-centric movies based on cult, male-centric TV shows. Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent is also a good pick too IMO

[M37]

2 hours ago, Maracles said:

I'm new to this forum and still trying to interpret the charts being posted and what they mean for a films predicted performance. Are things looking promising for Top Gun? I really want the film to be a success and kick-start a bit of a renaissance in old 80's / 90's style action cinema! 

Also, is there a beginners guide to understanding the charts anywhere? 

Thanks! 

There is some good info posted at the very start of this thread about how to read the data posted. But really, the trackers here do most of the work for you, by listing comparisons to previous films. From @Inceptionzq's last update:

 

0.449x Doctor Strange 2 T-9 (16.15M)

0.920x Batman T-9 (19.88M)

0.269x NWH T-9 (13.45M)

3.25x Dune T-9 (16.55M)

 

That means that as of this point in the sales cycle (T-9 means 9 days before Thursday shows), Top Gun 2 has sold 0.449 (44.9%) of the number of tickets as Dr Strange 2 at this same point (for this specific market or chain sample), and if sales from here were to follow that same trajectory, would extrapolate out to approximately $16.15 Million for Thursday previews. Once there is a good handle on what the Thursday preview shows will make, the range for the opening weekend gets a lot narrower.

 

However, tracking is as much art as it is science, as all films capture a slightly different audience, creating a lot of variation and nuance as to who/when/where tickets are purchased, so its often not quite that simple. And yes, things are "looking promising" for Top Gun 2, but IMO that's one of the more difficult films to compare, so how good is going to get a wide range of answers

[katnisscinnaplex]

50 minutes ago, Eric Crawley said:

@katnisscinnaplex Jackass Forever is the perfect comp for Bob's Burgers IMO. Both are male-centric movies based on cult, male-centric TV shows. Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent is also a good pick too IMO

Jackass was my first thought as well, but that was during my hiatus so I have no numbers for it.  Massive Talent had sold all of 19 tickets at this point and comped out to over 4m so I left it off (at least for now). 

[katnisscinnaplex]

I also noticed some EA for Bob's Burgers on Tuesday (24th), but from what I can see it appears to only be in Alamo Drafthouse (17 locations) so far.  @Inceptionzq

[EmpireCity]

1 hour ago, Eric Crawley said:

@katnisscinnaplex Jackass Forever is the perfect comp for Bob's Burgers IMO. Both are male-centric movies based on cult, male-centric TV shows. Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent is also a good pick too IMO

 

I think Bob's Burgers is actually pretty female popular overall.  

[ImNotRacistAtAll]

Did I missed it or tickets for Lightyear are still not on sale? 

 

If not, do we know when they go on sale? 

Edited May 18, 2022 by ImNotRacistAtAll

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 5/17/2022 at 11:18 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Downton (EA)	Standard	5	41	141	569	24.78%	$12.73	$1,795.61
T-2	Downton	Standard	21	15	163	2,492	6.54%	$12.54	$2,043.47
T-23	JW3	PLF	30	27	1,210	6,386	18.95%	$16.77	$20,287.69
		Standard	75	34	595	10,357	5.74%	$12.14	$7,224.57
	JW3 Total		105	61	1,805	16,743	10.78%	$15.24	$27,512.26
T-7	Top Gun 2 (EA)	Standard	6	62	1,018	1,599	63.66%	$21.65	$22,039.70
T-9	Top Gun 2	PLF	35	104	1,266	8,485	14.92%	$16.56	$20,965.96
		Standard	63	37	605	8,234	7.35%	$13.07	$7,907.64
	Top Gun 2 Total		98	141	1,871	16,719	11.19%	$15.43	$28,873.60

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-23	JW3	N	84	62	1,564	13,674	11.44%	$15.84	$24,777.68
		Y	21	-1	241	3,069	7.85%	$11.35	$2,734.58
	JW3 Total		105	61	1,805	16,743	10.78%	$15.24	$27,512.26
T-9	Top Gun 2	N	72	126	1,671	11,960	13.97%	$15.87	$26,519.24
		Y	26	15	200	4,759	4.20%	$11.77	$2,354.36
	Top Gun 2 Total		98	141	1,871	16,719	11.19%	$15.43	$28,873.60

 

Downton T-2 comp

 - FB3 - .122x (733k)

 - Sonic 2 (Thu) - .162x (808k)

 - Massive Talent - 5.82x (4.9m)

 

Top Gun T-9 comp

 - No Way Home - missed

 - Doctor Strange 2 - missed

 - FB3 - 3.58x (21.46m)

 

JW3 final sales (preview morning) comps

 - No Way Home - .091x (4.54m)

 - Batman + EA - .23x (4.92m)

 - DS 2 - .114x (4.1m)

 - Sonic + EA - .636x (3.97m)

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Downton (EA)	Standard	5	33	174	569	30.58%	$12.70	$2,210.20
T-1	Downton	Standard	21	34	197	2,492	7.91%	$12.55	$2,471.59
T-22	JW3	PLF	30	31	1,241	6,386	19.43%	$16.76	$20,802.74
		Standard	75	29	624	10,357	6.02%	$12.12	$7,564.04
	JW3 Total		105	60	1,865	16,743	11.14%	$15.21	$28,366.78
T-6	Top Gun 2 (EA)	Standard	6	36	1,054	1,599	65.92%	$21.65	$22,819.10
T-8	Top Gun 2	PLF	35	77	1,343	8,485	15.83%	$16.53	$22,200.65
		Standard	63	35	640	8,234	7.77%	$13.03	$8,341.99
	Top Gun 2 Total		98	112	1,983	16,719	11.86%	$15.40	$30,542.64

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-22	JW3	N	84	49	1,613	13,674	11.80%	$15.83	$25,526.66
		Y	21	11	252	3,069	8.21%	$11.27	$2,840.12
	JW3 Total		105	60	1,865	16,743	11.14%	$15.21	$28,366.78
T-8	Top Gun 2	N	72	92	1,763	11,960	14.74%	$15.84	$27,930.42
		Y	26	20	220	4,759	4.62%	$11.87	$2,612.22
	Top Gun 2 Total		98	112	1,983	16,719	11.86%	$15.40	$30,542.64

 

Downton T-1 comp

 - FB3 - .127x (764k)

 - Sonic 2 (Thu) - .129x (644k)

 - Massive Talent - 4.48x (3.74m)

 

Top Gun T-8 comp

 - No Way Home - .129x (6.45m)

 - Doctor Strange 2 - .187x (6.75m)

 - FB3 - 3.384x (20.3m)

 

JW3 final sales (preview morning) comps

 - No Way Home - .094x (4.69m)

 - Batman + EA - .235x (5.08m)

 - DS 2 - .118x (4.23m)

 - Sonic + EA - .657x (4.1m)

 

JW3 T-22 comp

 - DS 2 - .224x (8.05m)

[keysersoze123]

Downtown Abbey 

Wednesday - 9439/38761 123063.59 418 shows

Thursday - 10228/110113 140903.46 810 shows

Friday - 23505/415789 288716.67 2939 shows

 

Question is if this would be very front loaded. If not I think it will have fairly a good OW.  At worst I can see this open in high teens. 

[filmlover]

13 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Downtown Abbey 

Wednesday - 9439/38761 123063.59 418 shows

Thursday - 10228/110113 140903.46 810 shows

Friday - 23505/415789 288716.67 2939 shows

 

Question is if this would be very front loaded. If not I think it will have fairly a good OW.  At worst I can see this open in high teens. 

The first movie had solid legs and finished with a multiplier over 3x despite a fairly frontloaded opening, perhaps in large part because the audience for this franchise is so old. This feels like the biggest test to date as to how much the AARP crowd is returning to movie theaters after movies aimed at that demographic have largely struggled throughout the pandemic era.

Edited May 18, 2022 by filmlover

[Eric Prime]

18 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

I think Bob's Burgers is actually pretty female popular overall.  

Doesn't seem like it. SpottedRatings, a fantastic database for TV ratings, has indexes on how male-skewing shows are and Bob's Burgers skews 55-57% to guys.

 

http://www.spottedratings.com/2016/09/the-2016-17-daily-year-to-date-rankings.html

http://www.spottedratings.com/2017/10/the-2017-18-daily-year-to-date-rankings.html

http://www.spottedratings.com/2018/09/the-2018-19-daily-year-to-date-rankings.html

http://www.spottedratings.com/2019/09/the-2019-20-daily-year-to-date-rankings.html

[Inceptionzq]

39 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

I also noticed some EA for Bob's Burgers on Tuesday (24th), but from what I can see it appears to only be in Alamo Drafthouse (17 locations) so far.  @Inceptionzq

I see an AMC Investor Screenings option, but no showtimes yet. Those usually happen on Wednesday. But yeah so far no indication of Tuesday EA other than Drafthouse. 

[Alex SciChannel]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-downton-abbey-a-new-era-and-men-debut-as-doctor-strange-sequel-looks-for-third-1-finish/

Edited May 18, 2022 by Alex SciChannel

[Alex SciChannel]

1 hour ago, Alex SciChannel said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-downton-abbey-a-new-era-and-men-debut-as-doctor-strange-sequel-looks-for-third-1-finish/

If Downton Abbey overperforms like last time and makes more than Doctor Strange this weekend, I want to be here when the forum freaks out.

[titanic2187]

2 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

If Downton Abbey overperforms like last time and makes more than Doctor Strange this weekend, I want to be here when the forum freaks out.

From overseas number especially those in UK, it doesn’t seem possible. The last one was such a pity, it could be first 100m grosser for focus feature.

[Alex SciChannel]

16 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

From overseas number especially those in UK, it doesn’t seem possible. The last one was such a pity, it could be first 100m grosser for focus feature.

That being said will the Wednesday Early Access numbers for Downton Abbey 2 be released at some point tomorrow? And if so, will they be included in the Thursday preview gross?

Edited May 18, 2022 by Alex SciChannel

[katnisscinnaplex]

15 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

That being said will the Wednesday Early Access numbers for Downton Abbey 2 be released at some point tomorrow? And if so, will they be included in the Thursday preview gross?

We may or may not hear the EA numbers tomorrow.  It's pretty much a given that they'll be included in the previews number, it's just a matter of if they report the breakdown or not.  With the volume of shows out there, I would probably expect an EA number by Friday morning, if not before.

[katnisscinnaplex]

6 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Downton 2 (EA)	T-0	Jax	6	6	9	195	783	24.90%
		Phx	7	7	29	186	706	26.35%
		Ral	8	10	28	321	980	32.76%
	Total		21	23	66	702	2,469	28.43%

 

Downton EA T-0 comps

 - Sonic EA - 1.46x (1.85m)

 - NTTD EA - missed

 - Respect EA - 2.2x

 - Lost City EA - 2.73x (2.05m) 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Downton 2 (EA)	1-Hr	Jax	6	6	31	226	783	28.86%
		Phx	7	7	4	190	706	26.91%
		Ral	8	10	21	342	980	34.90%
	Total		21	23	56	758	2,469	30.70%

 

Won't have time for a true T-1hr, but I still wanted to check how pace was today.  From everything I'm hearing, my areas are vastly overperforming.  That being said, here's where the EA shows are comping out to (against true T-1hr updates).

 

Downton EA T-1 hr comps

 - Respect EA - 1.93x

 

All drama movies - 3.08m

All PG movies - 3.14m

All 7pm preview movies - 2.87m

All movies - 2.56m

 

It's really tough to predict anything this high, especially knowing that it's basically one show per location.  I'd be happy with anything over 1m, but I'd love something higher.