The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[ZackM]

Comps for Dominion are going to be weird.

 

 

Jurassic World: Dominion Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 days
	Last 2 Days		3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	6		0	0	0
Seats Added	411		0	0	0
Seats Sold	4,332		1,482	1,632	1,709
5/27/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	428	4,275	63,886	758,598	8.42%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	1	8	29	68
ATP
$17.93

 

[charlie Jatinder]

17 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

So around $6.6m. So 20% share leads to 33m. I was hoping for 7m from alpha. 

It will be 7+. We are not tracking 150+ theaters.

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

It will be 7+. We are not tracking 150+ theaters.

Any chance it goes higher than 33 or is that best case scenario?

[charlie Jatinder]

28 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Any chance it goes higher than 33 or is that best case scenario?

Seems hard. 32.75-33

[Liiviig 1998]

155-160m+ 4 day
Thinking alladin /POTC 2 legs
(3.04-3.13*)
470-500m Dom.

Legs are for the 4 day total not the 3 day total.
 

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Jurassic World Dominion Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-14 and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	191	22777	25372	2595	10.23%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

170

 

T-14 Unadjusted Comp

%

Sold T-14

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

F9

267.80

71

969

0/91

13181/14150

6.85%

4407

56.18%

19.91m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Jurassic World: Dominon's current tickets sold versus that final number.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

T-14 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-14	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	99.56		106	2487		0/117	16647/19134	13.00%		3034	85.53%		13.76m
JWD (adj)	---		165	2476		0/169	20158/22634	10.94%		---	---		---

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Jurassic World: Dominon's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  JWD (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in BW's track.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***

JW3 = 1.53835x JW2 at the same sources of tracking on Day 14 [21.18m adj]
JW3 = 3.58581x KotM at the same sources of tracking on Day 14 [20.33m adj]
JW3 = 0.97145x TLK at the same sources of tracking on Day 14 [20.11m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 10% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2018/19 to 2022.

 

Regal:       389/6145  [6.33% sold]
Matinee:    149/1535  [9.71% | 5.74% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

The Halo Effect is real, y'all!!!

 

--

 

Actually spent some time scanning my sheets to see if there were any obvious errors and I didn't see anything.  Gots things to do for the next 30+ minutes but when I have the time I might re-run the sample to make sure this is correct.  But it appears this was just a strong day up and down the region so probably not, as I didn't see any immediate Red Flags when I compared today's totals to yesterday's.

 

Jurassic World Dominion Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	191	22665	25372	2707	10.67%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

112

 

T-13 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
SC	254.42		97	1064		0/101	15938/17002	6.26%		5847	46.30%		22.39m
NTTD	347.05		57	780		0/135	20479/21259	3.67%		3737	72.44%		21.52m
Dune	419.04		34	646		0/75	11185/11831	5.46%		2915	92.86%		21.37m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Jurassic World: Dominon's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-13 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-13	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	262.46		48	983		0/79	11432/12415	7.92%		4407	58.54%		19.51m
BW	100.62		77	2564		0/117	16570/19134	13.40%		9196	29.44%		13.91m
JWD (adj)	---		104	2580		0/169	20054/22634	11.40%		---	---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  JWD (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in BW's track.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***

JW3 = 1.5165x JW2 at the same sources of tracking on Day 13 [20.88m adj]
JW3 = 3.38681x KotM at the same sources of tracking on Day 13 [19.2m adj]
JW3 = 0.97225x TLK at the same sources of tracking on Day 13 [20.13m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 10% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2018/19 to 2022.

 

Regal:       396/6145  [6.44% sold]
Matinee:    158/1535  [10.29% | 5.84% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Not nearly as nutty as yesterday, but a cromulent day nonetheless. 

 

Added NTTD and Dune comps and even threw in SC when I saw it wasn't completely terrible.  They might be a little on the high side (esp SC) thanks to the disparity in pre-sale window, but... Not completely terrible.  Be interesting to see how they move over the next week at least.

 

No, none of the comps are actually that good.  But not sure there is a good comp for this film given all the factors at play.  At least at this point in pre-sales.

[Inceptionzq]

On 5/26/2022 at 3:06 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Top Gun Maverick Drafthouse

 

T-2 Saturday(360 showings): 13747(+2050)/47835 ATP: $13.92

0.409x Doctor Strange 2 T-2 (23.65M)

0.512x Batman T-2 (22.15M)

0.367x NWH T-2 (27.15M)

Top Gun Maverick Drafthouse Saturday (360 showings)

 

22985(+9238)/47835 ATP: $13.77

0.522x Doctor Strange 2 T-0 (30.20M)

0.661x Batman T-0 (28.60M)

0.457x NWH T-0 (33.77M)

1.20x Top Gun 2 Friday T-0 (39.58M, using 33M estimate as comp)

On 5/26/2022 at 3:16 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Top Gun Maverick Megaplex

 

T-2 Saturday(314 showings): 9914(+1774)/73404

1.07x Doctor Strange 2 T-2 (61.75M)

1.93x Batman T-2 (83.44M)

0.528x NWH T-2 (39.03M)

3.24x NTTD T-2 (58.88M)

2.88x Dune T-2 (39.49M)

Top Gun Maverick Megaplex Saturday (326 showings)

 

19238(+9324)/74732

1.26x Doctor Strange 2 T-0 (72.86M)

1.75x Batman T-0 (75.86M)

0.629x NWH T-0 (46.50M)

2.98x Dune T-0 (40.83M)

2.98x NTTD T-0 (54.08M)

1.25x Top Gun 2 Friday T-0 (41.28M, using 33M estimate as comp)

 

WoM seems to be really kicking in. These are some huge increases over less than 2 days! The last 2 days of Drafthouse Friday was 6137 tickets sold and Megaplex was 4791 sold. It's not weird that the last 2 days of Saturday is outpacing Friday, it's very normal in fact. But this is a pretty crazy level. Even No Way Home, the only better received big opener of recent times, wasn't particularly close to this in terms of the ratio of Saturday's last 2 days sold/Friday's. And that's probably a bit of an unfair comparison given that NWH was probably gonna do 240M+ even with Doctor Strange 2 WoM levels, but I think it's the best I got. To put it more simply in numbers:

 

Saturday last 2 days of sales/Friday last 2 days of sales

Top Gun 2 Drafthouse: 1.51      Top Gun 2 Megaplex: 1.95

Batman Drafthouse: 1.12          Batman Megaplex: 1.33

NWH Drafthouse: 1.25              NWH Megaplex: 1.30

 

Anyways, all this to say that these Saturday numbers are very strong. Weekend days are especially hard to pinpoint with these chains and regional variance, but I wonder if we could see a bigger than expected increase over yesterday because of WoM.

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Top Gun 2 (Fri)	PLF	51	1,291	4,852	11,973	40.52%	$15.46	$75,014.12
		Standard	137	1,370	3,595	18,504	19.43%	$11.58	$41,636.66
	Top Gun 2 (Fri) Total		188	2,661	8,447	30,477	27.72%	$13.81	$116,650.78

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Top Gun 2 (Fri)	N	89	1,221	5,310	14,620	36.32%	$15.11	$80,233.84
		Y	99	1,440	3,137	15,857	19.78%	$11.61	$36,416.94
	Top Gun 2 (Fri) Total		188	2,661	8,447	30,477	27.72%	$13.81	$116,650.78

 

I was hoping to have the tue/wed/thu breakdown before posting to be able to adjust, but it sounds like around 14.7m Thursday so I'll adjust under that assumption.

 

 Unadjusted T-0 comps

 - No Way Home Fri - .389x (27.98m)

 - Batman Fri - .858x (30.03m)

 - Morbius Fri - 3.42x (39.74m)

 - FB3 Fri - 2.54x (21.12m)

 - DS2 Fri - .53x (28.98m)

 

Adjusted T-0 comps

 - No Way Home - 31.9m

 - Batman - 31.67m

 - Morbius - 39.48m

 - FB3 - 20.4m

 - DS2 - 36.7m

 

Maybe 35m Friday.  Not sure which comp it will follow but walkups seem really good.

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Top Gun 2 (Sat)	PLF	50	5,104	5,104	11,778	43.34%	$15.09	$76,997.32
		Standard	138	3,848	3,848	18,608	20.68%	$10.87	$41,830.66
	Total		188	8,952	8,952	30,386	29.46%	$13.27	$118,827.98

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Top Gun 2 (Sat)	N	91	4,046	4,046	14,910	27.14%	$15.56	$62,943.13
		Y	97	4,906	4,906	15,476	31.70%	$11.39	$55,884.85
	Total		188	8,952	8,952	30,386	29.46%	$13.27	$118,827.98

 

 Unadjusted T-0 comps

 - No Way Home Sat - .422x (31.21m)

 - Batman Sat - .858x (33.85m)

 - DS2 Sat - .53x (28.96m)

 

Adjusted by Friday multipliers

 - NWH - 30.68m

 - Batman - 33m

 - DS2 - 32.7m

 

Adjusted by Saturday multipliers

 - NWH - 35.64m

 - Batman - 35.7m

 - DS2 - 36.67m

 

Expecting this to come in on the higher end.  Here are the pure comp thu/fri/sat for each movie

 

NWH - 12.87/27.98/31.2

Batman - 13.94/30.03/33.85

DS2 - 11.6/28.98/28.96

 

Top Gun 2 - 14.7/32.5/X

 

I'll go with 37m for my Saturday prediction

[Inceptionzq]

Of course I post this before I see Deadline's update of some of the top 15 theaters being in San Antonio, Salt Lake City, Denver, and Dallas... All regions in Drafthouse/Megaplex. Which isn't all that surprising but maybe the amazing WoM will be overrepresented in the chains. We'll see, the increases are still crazy nonetheless.

[LegendaryBen]

Thank you to @Inceptionzq @katnisscinnaplex @charlie Jatinder @EmpireCity @Shawn @keysersoze123 @RthMav @Eric Belcher for all of your hard work!

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 5/27/2022 at 11:45 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
JW3 Dominion	T-13	Jax	7	107	93	757	15,994	4.73%
		Phx	6	94	19	653	16,370	3.99%
		Ral	8	69	30	717	7,963	9.00%
	Total		21	270	142	2,127	40,327	5.27%
JW3+JP	T-13	Jax	5	5	7	145	811	17.88%
		Phx	6	6	5	315	638	49.37%
		Ral	7	7	3	123	688	17.88%
	Total		18	18	15	583	2,137	27.28%
Watcher	T-6	Jax	2	2	1	2	77	2.60%
		Phx	3	4	0	2	483	0.41%
		Ral	2	3	0	2	207	0.97%
	Total		7	9	1	6	767	0.78%

 

JW3 T-13 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.04x (13.78m)

 - Batman (Thu) - missed

 - Eternals - missed

 - F9 - 3.32x (23.6m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
JW3 Dominion	T-12	Jax	7	107	23	780	15,994	4.88%
		Phx	6	94	40	693	16,370	4.23%
		Ral	8	71	27	744	8,111	9.17%
	Total		21	272	90	2,217	40,475	5.48%
JW3+JP	T-12	Jax	5	5	2	147	811	18.13%
		Phx	6	6	-4	311	638	48.75%
		Ral	7	7	7	130	688	18.90%
	Total		18	18	5	588	2,137	27.52%
Watcher	T-5	Jax	2	2	0	2	77	2.60%
		Phx	3	4	0	2	483	0.41%
		Ral	2	3	0	2	207	0.97%
	Total		7	9	0	6	767	0.78%

 

JW3 T-12 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.04x (13.74m)

 - Batman (Thu) - missed

 - Eternals - missed

 - F9 - 3.15x (22.39m)

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.13x (16.64m)

[ZackM]

2 hours ago, LegendaryBen said:

Thank you to @Inceptionzq @katnisscinnaplex @charlie Jatinder @EmpireCity @Shawn @keysersoze123 @RthMav @Eric Belcher for all of your hard work!

Yes, thank all of you.

[XXR & Friends]

8 minutes ago, ZackM said:

Yes, thank all of you.

Thank you as well, king. 
 

Also thanks to @Porthos @Rorschach @Tinalera @el sid and all the others who take time out of their day to make this the best sub-forum on the site 

[LegendaryBen]

@ZackM @T-ReXXR you all are awesome and thank you for all of your hard work!

[LegendaryBen]

I'm hoping for an awesome Saturday for TGM.

[EmpireCity]

Whoops.  

Edited May 28, 2022 by EmpireCity

[LegendaryBen]

Just now, EmpireCity said:

Really early, but something like $37m - $38m looks likely.  

Thank you. Still very good. I hope this indicates that it can finish with $400m domestically.

[LegendaryBen]

I can't believe Elvis cost $200m.

Edited May 28, 2022 by LegendaryBen

[Tinalera]

6 hours ago, T-ReXXR said:

Thank you as well, king. 
 

Also thanks to @Porthos @Rorschach @Tinalera @el sid and all the others who take time out of their day to make this the best sub-forum on the site 

awwwww Its a blast to do contribute to the forum, feels very welcoming. I do feel bad I dont get a chance to do as many days as I can right now, but that its also awesome theres no pressure on anyone-people do and add what they can when they can, because whether its tracking one theatre or tracking a state or larger, all the numbers count. So I will forward the love and myself thank everyone who adds to the site, not just the numbers, but making this place such a friendly and darn warm place to come to

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

sorry to bother if you've already mentioned but how many theaters is Neon taking Crimes of the Future this weekend @EmpireCity It doesn't seem like 3rd limited, wide 10th is plan anymore? If it's over 500 and 1k or more, 1million should happen.