The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

6 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

I still think Black Phone can break out a lot higher than that.  

How much are you predicting Elvis opens to?

[filmlover]

Showtimes for both Lightyear and Nope are starting to pop up. The former is looking to get IMAX/PLF screens only during the day (almost a guarantee Jurassic World takes over them at night), which probably doesn't shock anyone.

[ZackM]

I didn't get a chance to post a Jurassic World Dominion update yesterday so I'll just include it with today's update...And I suppose I'll start including comps now too.

 

Monday update:

 

Jurassic World: Dominion Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	Previous 2 Days
Showings Added	10	1	0	6
Seats Added	1,091	391	0	411
Seats Sold	2,674	2,322	1,769	4,332
5/30/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	428	4,286	70,651	760,080	9.30%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	1	10	35	80
ATP
$17.83

 

 

Today's update:

 

Jurassic World: Dominion Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago
Showings Added	21	10	1	0
Seats Added	1,486	1,091	391	0
Seats Sold	3,182	2,674	2,322	1,769
5/31/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	428	4,307	73,833	761,566	9.69%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	1	11	38	66
ATP
$17.78

 

 

Comps:

 

Jurassic World: Dominion Comps
	Top Gun: Maverick		The Batman		Dr. Strange MoM		Net
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-9	$13.8	$12.9	$7.9	$7.5	$8.1	$8.6	$9.0
T-10	$13.9	$13.0	$7.8	$7.3	$8.0	$8.5	$8.9
T-11	$13.9	$13.1	$7.6	$7.2	$7.8	$8.3	$8.8
T-12	$14.0	$13.2	$7.5	$7.1	$7.7	$8.2	$8.7
T-13	$14.2	$13.4	$7.5	$7.1	$7.6	$8.1	$8.6

 

 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

2 minutes ago, ZackM said:

Comps:

 

Jurassic World: Dominion Comps
	Top Gun: Maverick		The Batman		Dr. Strange MoM		Net
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-9	$13.8	$12.9	$7.9	$7.5	$8.1	$8.6	$9.0
T-10	$13.9	$13.0	$7.8	$7.3	$8.0	$8.5	$8.9
T-11	$13.9	$13.1	$7.6	$7.2	$7.8	$8.3	$8.8
T-12	$14.0	$13.2	$7.5	$7.1	$7.7	$8.2	$8.7
T-13	$14.2	$13.4	$7.5	$7.1	$7.6	$8.1	$8.6

 

 

Hmm. I know the Jurassic franchise is a different animal in terms of how light the presales have to be for it to have a great end result, buuuuuuttt these comps are not good. I'm thinking the IM will be somewhere in the 8-9x range, so if we don't get to at least $20M then we're likely looking at a ticket sales decrease from JWFK. 

[Eric Prime]

On 5/30/2022 at 10:44 PM, Eric Mitchell said:

Jurassic World: Dominion Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	134	1945	23705	8.21%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 91

 

Comp

2.183x of F9 T-10 (15.5M)

2.291x of Venom 2 T-10 (26.57M)

2.590x of No Time to Die T-10 (16.32M)

1.139x of Top Gun 2 T-9 (21.94M)

Jurassic World: Dominion Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	134	2017	23705	8.51%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 72

 

Comp

2.155x of F9 T-9 (15.3M)

2.266x of Venom 2 T-9 (26.29M)

2.445x of No Time to Die T-9 (15.4M)

1.121x of Top Gun 2 T-9 (21.59M)

[narniadis]

Would it truly be surprising if this trilogy matched the first? I cant help but feel the disappointment aroma starting to rise a tad. 

Glad to see the data, but I had hoped for much more. 

[keysersoze123]

Good news looking at alpha data is none of the 3 big openers had crazy final week. So it should go up against all those. Let us see how much it scales against those big movies as we approach final week. 

[Porthos]

On 5/31/2022 at 12:04 AM, Porthos said:

 

Jurassic World Dominion Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	191	22186	25372	3186	12.56%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

192

 

T-10 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
SC	232.55		149	1370		0/101	15632/17002	8.06%		5847	54.49%		20.46m
NTTD	335.37		74	950		0/135	20309/21259	4.47%		3737	85.26%		20.79m
Dune	383.86		83	830		0/75	11001/11831	7.02%		2915	109.30%		19.58m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Jurassic World: Dominon's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-10 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	264.62		62	1142		0/79	11275/12417	9.20%		4407	68.57%		19.67m
BW	103.92		142	2908		0/119	16352/19260	15.10%		9196	34.65%		14.36m
JWD (adj)	---		174	3022		0/169	19614/22636	13.35%		---	---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  JWD (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in BW's track.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***

JW3 = 1.58403x JW2 at the same sources of tracking at T-10 [21.81m adj]
JW3 = 3.26634x KotM at the same sources of tracking at T-10 [18.52m adj]
JW3 = 0.94025x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-10 [19.46m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 10% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2018/19 to 2022.

 

Regal:       468/6145  [7.62% sold]
Matinee:    181/1535  [11.79% | 5.68% of all tickets sold]

 

Jurassic World Dominion Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	190	21844	25224	3380	13.40%

 

Total Showings Removed Today	1
Total Seats Removed Today	148
Total Seats Sold Today	194

 

T-10 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
SC	226.54		122	1492		0/108	15995/17487	8.53%		5847	57.81%		19.94m
NTTD	325.63		88	1038		0/142	21077/22115	4.69%		3737	90.45%		20.19m
Dune	375.56		70	900		0/78	11142/12042	7.47%		2915	115.95%		19.15m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Jurassic World: Dominon's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-9 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	261.08		81	1223		0/80	11347/12570	9.73%		4407	72.45%		19.41m
BW	103.70		171	3079		0/122	16185/19264	15.98%		9196	36.76%		14.33m
JWD (adj)	---		171	3193		0/168	19295/22488	14.20%		---	---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  JWD (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in BW's track.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***

JW3 = 1.58028x JW2 at the same sources of tracking at T-9 [21.76m adj]
JW3 = 3.33136x KotM at the same sources of tracking at T-9 [18.89m adj]
JW3 = 0.91585x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-9 [18.96m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 10% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2018/19 to 2022.

 

Regal:       498/6145  [8.10% sold]
Matinee:    194/1535  [12.64% | 5.74% of all tickets sold]

Edited June 2, 2022 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

On 4/29/2022 at 5:56 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Jurassic World: Dominion Harkins T-42 Days

 

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	226	60,184	233	0.39%	$2,644	$11.35
Cine 1	27	8,097	506	6.25%	$7,609	$15.04
Cine Capri	5	2,082	53	2.55%	$735	$13.87
IMAX	3	1,335	65	4.87%	$1,040	$16.00
3D	57	8,987	28	0.31%	$409	$14.61
Total	318	80,685	885	1.10%	$12,437	$14.05

 

Comps

1.88x Shang Chi first day of sales - $16.5M

0.85x Eternals first day of sales - $8.1M

 

I don't have any good comp for this but $16.5M against SC is very good especially when SC first day was 25 days later. Without any comps, I would say quite good start.

Jurassic World: Dominion Harkins T-9 Days

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	277	69,070	1,738	2.52%	$19,420	$11.17
Cine 1	27	8,097	1,727	21.33%	$25,336	$14.67
Cine Capri	5	2,082	247	11.86%	$3,645	$14.76
IMAX	3	1,245	255	20.48%	$4,080	$16.00
3D	59	9,293	251	2.70%	$3,520	$14.02
Total	371	89,787	4,218	4.70%	$56,001	$13.28

 

Comps

1.48x Eternals - $14M

1.19x Black Widow - $16.35M (adj for Ontario)

0.64x Top Gun 2 - $12.30M

Edited June 1, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[katnisscinnaplex]

Wanted to get this out there before people start setting up their Black Phone shows... AMC is doing early access shows on the 15th at 7pm.  Looks like about 200 locations at the moment

[katnisscinnaplex]

20 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
JW3 Dominion	T-9	Jax	7	107	64	926	15,994	5.79%
		Phx	6	94	70	853	16,370	5.21%
		Ral	8	71	33	824	8,239	10.00%
	Total		21	272	167	2,603	40,603	6.41%
JW3+JP	T-9	Jax	5	5	0	152	811	18.74%
		Phx	6	6	14	333	638	52.19%
		Ral	7	7	4	140	688	20.35%
	Total		18	18	18	625	2,137	29.25%
Watcher	T-2	Jax	2	2	3	5	77	6.49%
		Phx	3	4	0	4	483	0.83%
		Ral	2	3	0	2	207	0.97%
	Total		7	9	3	11	767	1.43%

 

JW3 T-9 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.06x (14.01m)

 - Batman (Thu) - .728x (12.81m)

 - Eternals - 1.45x (13.81m)

 - F9 - 3.01x (21.39m)

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.12x (16.49m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Black Phone	T-22	Jax	6	16	2	8	1,959	0.41%
		Phx	4	10	8	9	1,898	0.47%
		Ral	7	17	5	7	1,647	0.43%
	Total		17	43	15	24	5,504	0.44%
Black Phone (EA)	T-14	Jax	2	2	0	0	141	0.00%
		Phx	2	2	1	1	229	0.44%
		Ral	1	1	0	0	91	0.00%
	Total		5	5	1	1	461	0.22%
Crimes of Future	T-1	Jax	3	4	29	29	257	11.28%
		Phx	3	4	38	38	252	15.08%
		Ral	2	2	8	8	108	7.41%
	Total		8	10	75	75	617	12.16%
JW3 Dominion	T-8	Jax	7	107	37	963	15,994	6.02%
		Phx	6	94	30	883	16,370	5.39%
		Ral	8	76	48	872	8,543	10.21%
	Total		21	277	115	2,718	40,907	6.64%
JW3+JP	T-8	Jax	5	5	7	159	811	19.61%
		Phx	6	6	7	340	638	53.29%
		Ral	7	7	3	143	688	20.78%
	Total		18	18	17	642	2,137	30.04%
Watcher	T-1	Jax	2	2	-1	4	77	5.19%
		Phx	4	5	-2	2	555	0.36%
		Ral	2	3	2	4	207	1.93%
	Total		8	10	-1	10	839	1.19%

 

 

Crimes of Future T-1 comps

 - Resident Evil - .408x (381k)

 - Antlers - 1.03x (380k)

 - Firestarter - .68x (253k)

 - X - .55x (243k)

 

JW3 T-8 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.04x (13.7m)

 - Batman (Thu) - missed

 - Eternals - 1.41x (13.41m)

 - F9 - 3.02x (21.44m)

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.12x (16.46m)

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 5/24/2022 at 11:19 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-16	JW3	PLF	30	60	1,510	6,386	23.65%	$16.89	$25,508.17
		Standard	75	23	771	10,357	7.44%	$12.12	$9,344.27
	JW3 Total		105	83	2,281	16,743	13.62%	$15.28	$34,852.44

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-16	JW3	N	84	68	1,966	13,674	14.38%	$15.95	$31,354.25
		Y	21	15	315	3,069	10.26%	$11.11	$3,498.19
	JW3 Total		105	83	2,281	16,743	13.62%	$15.28	$34,852.44

 

JW3 T-16 comp

 - DS 2 - .247x (8.89m)

 - NWH - .172x (8.6m)

 - Batman (Thu) - Missed

 - Batman + EA - Missed

- Top Gun 2 - 1.99x

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New*	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-8	JW3	PLF	30	526	2,036	6,386	31.88%	$16.66	$33,922.91
		Standard	75	438	1,209	10,357	11.67%	$12.14	$14,677.51
	JW3 Total		105	964	3,245	16,743	19.38%	$14.98	$48,600.42

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New*	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-8	JW3	N	84	845	2,811	13,674	20.56%	$15.57	$43,761.11
		Y	21	119	434	3,069	14.14%	$11.15	$4,839.31
	JW3 Total		105	964	3,245	16,743	19.38%	$14.98	$48,600.42

 

*New sales since 5/24*

 

JW3 T-8 comp

 - DS 2 - .307x (11.04m)

 - NWH - .211x (10.55m)

 - Batman (Thu) - Missed

 - Batman + EA - Missed

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.64x (24.06m)

 - Top Gun + EA - 1.1x (21.31m)

[el sid]

JW3, counted today at 11am EST for Friday, June 10 (9 days to go):

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 418 (9 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 291 (18 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 75 (13 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 34 (6 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 63 (11 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 373 (18 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 1.206 (26 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 2.460.
 

Comps: Uncharted had with 10 days to go 408 sold tickets for Friday

and Top Gun: Maverick had on Monday of its release week (= 5 days left for JW3) 2.743 sold tickets for Friday.
So judging from my theaters I don't see any reason to panic. The presales are good.
The only thing that is a bit concerning is that the presales are very uneven: E.g. in the AMC in Los Angeles it has great numbers but not between the coasts. But that often changes not before the Monday of the release week.

Crimes of the Future had today 95 sold tickets for Friday. It still has showtimes in only 4 of my 7 theaters and because it's already Wednesday I think that won't change anymore.
 

Comps (all counted for Friday): Old (16.9M OW) had on Wednesday of its release week 262 sold tickets,

Malignant (5.4M OW) had on Wednesday 167 sold tickets,

The Night House (2.9M OW) had on Wednesday 72 sold tickets

and Firestarter (3.8M OW) had also on Wednesday 115 sold tickets.

Antlers (4.3M OW) had on Thursday 136 sold tickets.
Because my guesses of 5M for e.g. Firestarter were still too high, this time I would go with 3M OW for Crimes of the Future so far.
 

The Black Phone had today, after ca. 24h on sale, 95 sold tickets for Thursday (22 days to go) and 34 sold tickets for Friday.
Comps: The Forever Purge (12.6M OW) had on Monday of its release week 104 sold tickets for Thursday

and Old had on Monday of its release week 150 sold tickets for Friday.
Scream (30M OW) had with 21 respectively 22 days to go 384 and 149 sold tickets but that was after several days on sale.
Of course it's way too early to see a trend but after one day that's a good Thursday number for The Black Phone but an improvable Friday number.

[filmlover]

Elvis tickets are now on sale FYI.

[motionpic05]

Eek.. Jason Blum (founder of Blumhouse) posted this

Lots of controversy and people bashing him. 

 

 

 

Edited June 1, 2022 by motionpic05

[Eric Prime]

1 minute ago, motionpic05 said:

Eek.. Jason Blum (founder of Blumhouse) posted this

Lots of controversy and people bashing him. 

Could that cause Black Phone to be delayed?

 

 

 

Dude, your "OMG WILL BLACK PHONE GET DELAYED" posts are beyond old and beyond tired. I suggest you stop.

[motionpic05]

5 minutes ago, Eric Mitchell said:

Dude, your "OMG WILL BLACK PHONE GET DELAYED" posts are beyond old and beyond tired. I suggest you stop.

Sorry about that. Just excited for the film. 

[filmlover]

19 minutes ago, motionpic05 said:

Eek.. Jason Blum (founder of Blumhouse) posted this

Lots of controversy and people bashing him. 

 

 

 

One has nothing to do with the other.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

After only few hours, the Elvis fan event at the AMC here is selling solidly. I'll start figuring out comps later. But as of now, that Dolby premiere has 26 seats sold now. Definitely think over 30m weekend

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Jurassic World Dominion Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

463

2320

19.96%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

494

3250

15.20%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 6 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2395	549	27586	8.68%	15	173

 

AMCs sold	1651
Cinemarks sold	343
Regals sold	208
Harkins sold	193

 

0.647x Top Gun 2 T-9 (12.47M)

0.596x Batman T-9 (12.87M)

1.45x Eternals T-9 (13.75M)

1.17x Black Widow T-9 (15.44M)

3.78x Fast 9 T-9 (26.86M)

Jurassic World Dominion Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

491

2320

21.16%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

513

3250

15.78%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2547	152	27919	9.12%	15	176

 

AMCs sold	1715
Cinemarks sold	391
Regals sold	240
Harkins sold	201

 

0.652x Top Gun 2 T-8 (12.55M)

1.48x Eternals T-8 (14.06M)

1.16x Black Widow T-8 (15.36M)

3.75x Fast 9 T-8 (26.63M)