The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[katnisscinnaplex]

2 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Is that a good increase for Raleigh? I'm over there and there's good word of mouth especially among families.

It seems alright, but not as good as I hoped.  I can look deeper once I finish pulling the other movies and get caught up at work

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

Jurassic World Dominion T-1 Roundup

Thought it might be useful for posterity to aggregate all of the T-1 data & comps into a single spot. So here it is

As someone posting the second biggest dataset I need some respect.👀

7 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Jurassic World: Dominion Harkins T-1 Day

 

Thursday - 14,590 on 493 shows ($180K)

Comps
101% of Top Gun 2 - $19.30M (90% of Gross, $17.3M)

38.5% of DSitMoM - $13.90M
211% of Eternals - $20M (200% of Gross, $19M)

 

Can't provide data in usual format as Harkins changed its website and will need time to adjust. Thanks to @Inceptionzq for working out the way to solve the issue. Better than what MTC 1 is suggesting but by tomorrow things may even out a bit like Sacramento.

 

 

Edited June 9, 2022 by charlie Jatinder
just kidding

[motionpic05]

NOPE Tickets are on sale.

Guess it's keeping the July 22 date.

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Black Phone	T-15	Jax	6	16	-2	20	1,959	1.02%
		Phx	5	13	0	22	2,108	1.04%
		Ral	7	18	3	28	1,933	1.45%
	Total		18	47	1	70	6,000	1.17%
Black Phone (EA)	T-2	Jax	1	1	19	19	60	31.67%
		Phx	1	1	17	17	106	16.04%
	Total		2	2	36	36	166	21.69%
Elvis	T-15	Jax	6	26	7	69	4,520	1.53%
		Phx	6	16	7	54	2,103	2.57%
		Ral	8	20	9	57	2,074	2.75%
	Total		20	62	23	180	8,697	2.07%
Elvis (EA)	T-13	Jax	2	2	0	65	403	16.13%
	Total		2	2	0	65	403	16.13%
Lightyear	T-8	Jax	6	81	107	121	11,193	1.08%
		Phx	6	69	112	124	11,262	1.10%
		Ral	8	34	45	67	3,581	1.87%
	Total		20	184	264	312	26,036	1.20%
Lightyear (EA)	T-7	Jax	3	3	18	19	600	3.17%
		Phx	1	1	4	4	410	0.98%
		Ral	1	1	0	0	261	0.00%
	Total		5	5	22	23	1,271	1.81%
Minions 2	T-22	Jax	6	101	7	18	16,556	0.11%
		Phx	6	66	13	56	12,191	0.46%
		Ral	8	52	11	24	6,699	0.36%
	Total		20	219	31	98	35,446	0.28%

 

Lightyear T-8 comps

 - Bad Guys - 5.67x (6.52m)

 - Boss Baby 2 - 12x (15.72m)

 - Paw Patrol (Fri) - 2.92x (13.19m)

 - Sonic 2 - .607x (3.02m)

Really good first day.  I'm not sure why the bad reactions yesterday from a few hours of sales.  This could be a great run

 

Black Phone T-15 comps

 - Ghostbusters - .241x (998k)

 - Morbius - .172x (978k)

 - Suicide Squad - .296x (1.21m)

(Don't have many options this far out)

 

Elvis T-15 comps

 - No Time to Die - .508x (2.64m)

 - F9 - .333x (2.36m)

 - Ghostbusters - .619x (2.57m)

 

Minions 2 T-22 comp

 - Sonic 2 - .62x (3.11m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Black Phone	T-14	Jax	6	16	3	23	1,959	1.17%
		Phx	5	13	0	22	2,108	1.04%
		Ral	7	18	0	28	1,933	1.45%
	Total		18	47	3	73	6,000	1.22%
Black Phone (EA)	T-6	Jax	1	1	3	22	60	36.67%
		Phx	1	1	5	22	106	20.75%
	Total		2	2	8	44	166	26.51%
Elvis	T-14	Jax	6	26	8	77	4,520	1.70%
		Phx	6	16	5	59	2,103	2.81%
		Ral	8	20	0	57	2,074	2.75%
	Total		20	62	13	193	8,697	2.22%
Elvis (EA)	T-12	Jax	2	2	4	69	403	17.12%
	Total		2	2	4	69	403	17.12%
Lightyear	T-7	Jax	6	78	21	142	10,803	1.31%
		Phx	6	69	28	152	11,262	1.35%
		Ral	8	34	21	88	3,581	2.46%
	Total		20	181	70	382	25,646	1.49%
Lightyear (EA)	T-6	Jax	3	3	6	25	600	4.17%
		Phx	1	1	5	9	410	2.20%
		Ral	1	1	2	2	261	0.77%
	Total		5	5	13	36	1,271	2.83%
Minions 2	T-21	Jax	6	101	12	30	16,556	0.18%
		Phx	6	66	1	57	12,191	0.47%
		Ral	8	52	10	34	6,699	0.51%
	Total		20	219	23	121	35,446	0.34%

 

Looks like a really slow day for anything not named Jurassic (or Top Gun assumedly).

 

Lightyear (Thu) T-7 comps

 - Bad Guys - 6.59x (7.57m)

 - Boss Baby 2 - 11.57x (15.16m)

 - Paw Patrol (Fri) - 2.62x (11.84m)

 - Sonic 2 - .695x (3.46m)

 

Black Phone (Thu) T-14 comps

 - Ghostbusters - .214x (888k)

 - Morbius - .161x (916k)

 - Suicide Squad - .296x (1.21m)

(Still no real horror comps)

 

Elvis (Thu) T-14 comps

 - No Time to Die - .501x (2.61m)

 - F9 - .339x (2.4m)

 - Ghostbusters - .566x (2.35m)

 

Minions 2 T-21 comp

 - Sonic 2 - .62x (3.11m)

[Tinalera]

10 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Black Phone	T-14	Jax	6	16	3	23	1,959	1.17%
		Phx	5	13	0	22	2,108	1.04%
		Ral	7	18	0	28	1,933	1.45%
	Total		18	47	3	73	6,000	1.22%
Black Phone (EA)	T-6	Jax	1	1	3	22	60	36.67%
		Phx	1	1	5	22	106	20.75%
	Total		2	2	8	44	166	26.51%
Elvis	T-14	Jax	6	26	8	77	4,520	1.70%
		Phx	6	16	5	59	2,103	2.81%
		Ral	8	20	0	57	2,074	2.75%
	Total		20	62	13	193	8,697	2.22%
Elvis (EA)	T-12	Jax	2	2	4	69	403	17.12%
	Total		2	2	4	69	403	17.12%
Lightyear	T-7	Jax	6	78	21	142	10,803	1.31%
		Phx	6	69	28	152	11,262	1.35%
		Ral	8	34	21	88	3,581	2.46%
	Total		20	181	70	382	25,646	1.49%
Lightyear (EA)	T-6	Jax	3	3	6	25	600	4.17%
		Phx	1	1	5	9	410	2.20%
		Ral	1	1	2	2	261	0.77%
	Total		5	5	13	36	1,271	2.83%
Minions 2	T-21	Jax	6	101	12	30	16,556	0.18%
		Phx	6	66	1	57	12,191	0.47%
		Ral	8	52	10	34	6,699	0.51%
	Total		20	219	23	121	35,446	0.34%

 

Looks like a really slow day for anything not named Jurassic (or Top Gun assumedly).

 

Lightyear (Thu) T-7 comps

 - Bad Guys - 6.59x (7.57m)

 - Boss Baby 2 - 11.57x (15.16m)

 - Paw Patrol (Fri) - 2.62x (11.84m)

 - Sonic 2 - .695x (3.46m)

 

Black Phone (Thu) T-14 comps

 - Ghostbusters - .214x (888k)

 - Morbius - .161x (916k)

 - Suicide Squad - .296x (1.21m)

(Still no real horror comps)

 

Elvis (Thu) T-14 comps

 - No Time to Die - .501x (2.61m)

 - F9 - .339x (2.4m)

 - Ghostbusters - .566x (2.35m)

 

Minions 2 T-21 comp

 - Sonic 2 - .62x (3.11m)

Im about to start Lightyear comps for up here, so thank you for those as I try teaching myself comp stuff-is it okay if I copy those comps onto my sheets for now and future use (Im totally in the deep end here so I don't know if there are any unwritten rules here about copying info-obviously my comp numbers will be different because of different tix numbers, but even just having the names is a good start-even if I just put the final Thurs/Fri sales numbers to start before easing into mathy stuff)

Edited June 9, 2022 by Tinalera

[M37]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

As someone posting the second biggest dataset I need some respect.👀

 

Wasn’t intentional, must have just missed when going through the pages. Will edit/add (and Santikos) when I get home to my computer later 

[Tinalera]

Right here goes my experimentation with comps. Please note that this will be a kind of work in progress lab for a bit as I play with formats and info styles-so please go easy on me if Im doing something and your first response is  NONONONONO-Im trying to go into deeper water here. Also please note that because Im in Canada trying to get specific Canada comps might be tricky until I can find a source for Canada numbers. So numbers will be the combined US/Canada numbers-please try not to lose your minds trying to figure out comp stuff-like I said, this is going to be a bit of a labratory, so don your safety goggles lol. Will be using Lightyear as my first test subject.

 

Lightyear 

SouthWest Ontario

Thurs June 16 (taken June 10

10 theatres

33 shows 

 

Total sold 23

Total Remaining 6309

Total seats 6332

no sellouts 

Percentage .36 percent

 

Friday June 17

10 theatres

34 shows

Total sold 77

Total remaining 6529

Total seats 6606

no sellouts 

Percentage 1.17

 

Total seats sold for 2 days 100 out of 12915 

percentage of .77 (Sorry thats .77 percent not 77 percent lol)

 

my comp here is Boss Baby 2

it had an opening friday (going to assume thats including Thurs) of 7,805,390 

 

So if I do my (awful) math right (ha) im getting 6.006 out of 77 percent out of 7.8 million, which would give a comp of 6.6 million. 

 

I know I messed up so hey chime in if you wish lol

 

EDIT okay .77 percent not 77percent lol-mind you if one does a rule of thumb and x a factor of 100 making .77 a 77 percent- a 6.6 estimation for a Thurs/Friday isn't exactly out of the ballpark for a comp.

 

Like I said, my labratory lol

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited June 9, 2022 by Tinalera
added more info/context

[katnisscinnaplex]

20 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	JW3	PLF	32	376	3,617	6,844	52.85%	$16.18	$58,537.99
		Standard	94	715	3,644	12,050	30.24%	$11.84	$43,149.32
	JW3 Total		126	1,091	7,261	18,894	38.43%	$14.00	$101,687.31
T-2	JW3 (Fri)	PLF	60	560	4,667	12,895	36.19%	$15.39	$71,805.52
		Standard	153	1,030	3,599	19,838	18.14%	$11.30	$40,654.05
	JW3 (Fri) Total		213	1,590	8,266	32,733	25.25%	$13.61	$112,459.57

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	JW3	N	104	887	6,052	15,781	38.35%	$14.69	$88,896.56
		Y	22	204	1,209	3,113	38.84%	$10.58	$12,790.75
	JW3 Total		126	1,091	7,261	18,894	38.43%	$14.00	$101,687.31
T-2	JW3 (Fri)	N	106	915	5,395	16,450	32.80%	$14.72	$79,409.37
		Y	107	675	2,871	16,283	17.63%	$11.51	$33,050.20
	JW3 (Fri) Total		213	1,590	8,266	32,733	25.25%	$13.61	$112,459.57

 

JW3 Thu T-1 comp

 - DS 2 - missed

 - NWH - .382x (19.09m)

 - Batman (Thu) - 1.204x (21.2m)

 - Batman + EA - 1.12x (24.22m)

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.757x (25.83m)

 - Top Gun + EA - 1.319x (25.46m)

 

Continues to impress here.  Well ahead of Top Gun and Batman.  I guess San Antonio like dinos too

 

JW3 Fri T-2 comps

 - NWH - .492x (35.37m)

 - Batman - 1.28x (44.94m)

 - DS2 - .757x (41.46m)

 - TG2 - 1.685x (55.12m)

 

There were a whole lot of shows added since yesterday.  Plenty of space available now for last few days.

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	JW3	PLF	32	433	4,050	6,844	59.18%	$16.14	$65,372.46
		Standard	94	1,245	4,889	12,050	40.57%	$11.71	$57,242.99
	JW3 Total		126	1,678	8,939	18,894	47.31%	$13.72	$122,615.45
T-1	JW3 (Fri)	PLF	61	637	5,304	13,142	40.36%	$15.30	$81,148.33
		Standard	153	1,314	4,913	19,838	24.77%	$11.26	$55,303.61
	JW3 (Fri) Total		214	1,951	10,217	32,980	30.98%	$13.36	$136,451.94

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	JW3	N	104	1,361	7,413	15,781	46.97%	$14.41	$106,843.18
		Y	22	317	1,526	3,113	49.02%	$10.34	$15,772.27
	JW3 Total		126	1,678	8,939	18,894	47.31%	$13.72	$122,615.45
T-1	JW3 (Fri)	N	107	1,081	6,476	16,697	38.79%	$14.54	$94,176.57
		Y	107	870	3,741	16,283	22.97%	$11.30	$42,275.37
	JW3 (Fri) Total		214	1,951	10,217	32,980	30.98%	$13.36	$136,451.94

 

JW3 Thu T-0 comp

 - DS 2 - .564x (20.286m)

 - NWH - .45x (22.5m)

 - Batman (Thu) - 1.195x (21.04m)

 - Batman + EA - 1.128x (24.36m)

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.75x (25.69m)

 - Top Gun + EA - 1.378x (26.6m)

 

Others

 - Morbius - 4.54x (25.86m)

 - Sonic 2 - 4.42x (22.03m)

 - FB3 - 4.44x (26.62m)

 

It's hard to ignore how well JW3 has performed here.  Based solely on Santikos I would have predicted ~22m for previews.  Taking other areas into account, maybe we get close to 18m?  Tough to say

 

JW3 Fri T-1 comps

 - NWH - .562x (40.47m)

 - Batman - 1.32x (46.24m)

 - DS2 - .767x (41.96m)

 - TG2 - 1.766x (57.76m)

[Brainbug]

Maybe Santikos is overperforming? I hope it doesnt but its probably a lot more sensible to think it does looking at the other comps.

Edited June 9, 2022 by Brainbug the Dinosaur

[Alex SciChannel]

10 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

Maybe Santikos is overperforming? I hope it doesnt but its probably a lot more sensible to think it does looking at the other comps.

If it isn't an outlier we might have a new Black Magic master.

[EmpireCity]

17 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

Maybe Santikos is overperforming? I hope it doesnt but its probably a lot more sensible to think it does looking at the other comps.

 

Santikos leans heavily into the family crowd.  

[katnisscinnaplex]

17 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

Maybe Santikos is overperforming? I hope it doesnt but its probably a lot more sensible to think it does looking at the other comps.

Yeah, it is absolutely overperforming.  No other region/chain is comping this high

[Tinalera]

Jurassic Dominion 

Thurs June 9 (Final Count-12:40 EST)

 

Southwest Ontario

10 theatres

54 shows

Total Sold 1760

Seats remaining 9402

Total Seats 11162

No sellouts 

Percentage 15.77

 

Toronto Ontario

10 theatres

75 shows

Total sold 1792

Total remaining 18619

Total seats 20411

no sellouts 

Percentage 8.78

Total Combined Sold 3552

Total Combined Seats 31573

Percentage 11.25

 

Going by Mojo Friday numbers for ref (NOT comps-just the opening fri numbers for reference) 

 

TG2 shows 52 million

The Batman shows 56 mil 

 

Again disclaimer its tricky finding Canada only numbers which would be better comparison, but what can a canuck do?

 

On the bright side I have been consecutively tracking Dominion since T-3 so at least I'll have T-3 onward comp numbers for myself for future films, have started lightyear at t-7 (which means Im going from tracking every few days to now tracking daily. this is all new to me. I think for my sanity I'll keep my tracking at most to t-7, I don't quite have availablity for tracking 20 plus days out consistently)

Edited June 9, 2022 by Tinalera
more info

[filmlover]

The empty August schedule is allowing for two Spielberg classics to come to IMAX for the first time: E.T. on August 12 and Jaws on September 2. Jaws will also be released in 3D (lol why) as well.

 

‘E.T. The Extra-Terrestrial’ And ‘Jaws’ Set For First-Ever Imax Release – Deadline

[katnisscinnaplex]

5 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
JW3	T-0	Jax	7	115	531	2,745	16,584	16.55%
		Phx	7	107	482	2,456	16,578	14.81%
		Ral	8	87	354	2,206	9,858	22.38%
	Total		22	309	1,367	7,407	43,020	17.22%
JW3+JP	T-0	Jax	5	5	0	198	811	24.41%
		Phx	6	6	6	417	638	65.36%
		Ral	7	7	2	236	688	34.30%
	Total		18	18	8	851	2,137	39.82%

 

Breaking this out from the others since I'll be updating it later today for the last time.  

 

JW3 T-0 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.279x (16.88m)

 - Batman (Thu) - .817x (14.38m)

 - Batman + EA - .656x (14.16m)

 - Eternals - 1.786x (16.97m)

 - F9 - 2.42x (17.2m)

 - Top Gun 2 (Thu) - 1.097x (16.13m)

 - Top Gun 2 + EA - .859x (16.58m)

 - Dune - 3.35x (17.08m)

 - Ghostbusters - 4.13x (17.15m)

 - Shang-Chi - 2.46x (21.64m)

 

I think it's pretty easy to see a pattern here.  My range right now is 16.5m - 17.5m.  I'll hopefully be able to narrow it down tonight at the last 1hr run.  For those that don't know, for movies with previews starting before 6pm, I'll pull the pre-6m shows an hour before the first shows start; I pull the rest of them at 5pm.  I also want to note that I haven't been using the double feature sales in my comps at all.  I'm not sure how these will be counted, but it will be enough money to affect things.   Keep that in mind when the number is reported if we don't end up getting clarity on it.

 

How has the PLF breakdown been in other areas?  I was wondering about mine after seeing how high it is in Santikos (45% of sales for Thursday, 52% for Friday).   Here's how my regional PLF share ranks against some of the comps

 

Top Gun 2 - 34.2% PLF

F9 - 29.7% PLF

Doctor Strange 2 - 35% PLF

Dune - 44.1% PLF

JW3 - 46.5%

[lorddemaxus]

25 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The empty August schedule is allowing for two Spielberg classics to come to IMAX for the first time: E.T. on August 12 and Jaws on September 2. Jaws will also be released in 3D (lol why) as well.

 

‘E.T. The Extra-Terrestrial’ And ‘Jaws’ Set For First-Ever Imax Release – Deadline

Dolby re-release would be better than IMAX (the Godfather remaster was beautiful on Dolby).

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

I will be seeing ET on my birthday in (LIE)MAX

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Dolby re-release would be better than IMAX (the Godfather remaster was beautiful on Dolby).

Might still get it but I doubt it. Most likely Bullet Train gets Dolby for two weeks followed by Beast (which might end up with an IMAX release too since there's an opening).

[ZackM]

Look out...final presales run.

 

 

Jurassic World: Dominion Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-0 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	73	395	186	0
Seats Added	0	6,399	44,200	20,751	0
Seats Sold	28,903	19,844	16,191	12,055	8,750
6/9/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	428	5,017	180,854	840,342	21.52%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	2	8	46	214	497
ATP
$16.76

 

 

 

Jurassic World: Dominion Comps
	Top Gun: Maverick		The Batman		Dr. Strange MoM		Net
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-0	$15.2	$14.5	$10.7	$10.3	$11.7	$12.3	$12.1
T-1	$13.9	$13.2	$10.3	$9.9	$10.9	$11.5	$11.3
T-2	$14.1	$13.2	$10.0	$9.5	$10.3	$10.8	$10.9
T-3	$14.1	$13.2	$9.6	$9.2	$9.8	$10.4	$10.6
T-4	$14.0	$13.1	$9.4	$8.9	$9.4	$10.0	$10.2
T-5	$13.8	$12.9	$9.0	$8.5	$9.1	$9.6	$9.9
T-6	$13.8	$12.9	$8.7	$8.2	$8.7	$9.3	$9.6
T-7	$13.8	$12.9	$8.4	$7.9	$8.4	$8.9	$9.3
T-8	$13.9	$13.0	$8.1	$7.7	$8.3	$8.8	$9.2
T-9	$13.8	$12.9	$7.9	$7.5	$8.1	$8.6	$9.0
T-10	$13.9	$13.0	$7.8	$7.3	$8.0	$8.5	$8.9
T-11	$13.9	$13.1	$7.6	$7.2	$7.8	$8.3	$8.8
T-12	$14.0	$13.2	$7.5	$7.1	$7.7	$8.2	$8.7
T-13	$14.2	$13.4	$7.5	$7.1	$7.6	$8.1	$8.6

 

[el sid]

Overall that was a good last day in my theaters.

JW3, counted today at 11am EST for Thursday, June 9:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 249 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 946 (25 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 291 (7 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 173 (7 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 248 (8 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 643 (16 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 1.792 (28 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 4.342.

Up acceptable 14% since yesterday.

Comps (both counted on Thursday for Thursday): Uncharted (3.7M from previews) had 1.294 sold tickets = x3.36 = 12.4M.

Ghostbusters: Afterlife (4.5M) had 1.437 sold tickets = x3.02 = 13.6M.

IMO JW3 will have the way better walk-ups and I would just add 5M to the comparison numbers above.
 

JW3, counted today at 11am EST for Friday, June 10:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 779 (14 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 897 (23 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 489 (7 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 208 (7 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 183 (8 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 575 (16 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 1.650 (28 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 5.623.
Still not frontloaded at all in my theaters. And at this level a 35% jump (since Tuesday) is fine.

Comps (all counted on Thursday for Friday):

Uncharted (44M OW) had 1.180 sold tickets = x4.76 = 209.4M OW,

Ghostbusters: Afterlife (44M) had 1.124 sold tickets = x5 = 220M,

TG: M (126.7M) had 4.025 sold tickets = x1.4 = 177.4M.

And to stay grounded: F9 had 3.585 sold tickets = x1.54 = 107.8M. But I don't think this movie is a good comp e.g. because F9 isn't directly a family film or a film for all ages.

In sum: The Thursday presales are so-so but the Friday number is really good.
Will it have better or worse walk-ups than TG: M (I guess a bit worse)? And how much will the reviews and the mixed reception of Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom hurt? Of course I don't know the answers yet but wouldn't go under 150M OW.