The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Legion Again]

13 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Saying no one cares in the US is... um... Not Accurate, even for hyperbole:

 

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now 7-d&geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F0d1_f,NFL

(it's the opening of the NFL season tonight)

 

Saying "not enough people care to really effect the box office"?  Yeah, I'd agree with that.  But not a news story in the US?  Disagree completely.  Very much is a story over here, even if you don't count the sizable chunk of the US population which is obsessed with the royal family.

I was being a bit hyperbolic, but I pretty much stand by it. There is a large awareness/curiosity as a historical/global news event, but I think a vanishingly small % of Americans are actually being emotionally affected here or going to make any change to their daily behavior. So, basically, nobody cares.

[SnokesLegs]

36 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

I was being a bit hyperbolic, but I pretty much stand by it. There is a large awareness/curiosity as a historical/global news event, but I think a vanishingly small % of Americans are actually being emotionally affected here or going to make any change to their daily behavior. So, basically, nobody cares.

Honestly, I think the vast majority of Brits will be going about business as usual, not to say they “don’t care” but anybody that was planning on going to the cinema tomorrow night will still be going, likewise with other activities, the media thinks we’re going to be “mourning” for 10 days, but…yeah…come on.

[Krissykins]

2 hours ago, SnokesLegs said:

Unless I’m mistaken, England doesn’t actually get an extra bank holiday for the funeral (not sure about other parts of the UK though).

Ah I’ve read it was expected to be a holiday here, we’ll see. 
 

It certainly won’t affect my plans, but some nightclubs in Glasgow have closed tonight, for example. 
 

Depends who runs the businesses I guess lol. 

[misterpepp]

Don't mean to break up this discussion, but I've been informed by my pal, who mysteriously knows things, that Don't Worry Darling goes on sale this Tuesday, 9/13.

[Eric Lasagna]

20 hours ago, Eric-occhio said:

Barbarian Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	32	264	5173	5.10%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 132

 

Comp

1.004x of Old T-1 (1.51M)

4.000x of The Night House T-1 (1.04M)

3.070x of Antlers T-1 (1.13M)

0.854x of Last Night in Soho T-1 (598K)

2.182x of X T-1 (960K)

3.520x of Firestarter T-1 (1.32M)

1.927x of Men T-1 (815K)

0.359x of The Black Phone T-1 (1.08M)

2.538x of The Invitation T-1 (1.97M)

Barbarian Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	32	482	5173	9.32%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 218

 

Comp

0.564x of Old (847K)

4.265x of The Night House (1.11M)

3.324x of Antlers (1.23M)

1.245x of Last Night in Soho (872K)

2.017x of X (887K)

3.736x of Firestarter (1.4M)

1.951x of Men (825K)

0.362x of The Black Phone (1.09M)

1.651x of The Invitation (1.28M)

 

So half are saying in the 800K range, the others are 1M+. Averaging out we get to 1.06M...maybe move down a bit for the lower location count and we get 900K previews? Sure, let's go with that.

[Sandro Mazzola]

These Barbarian sales look really really good, that 900k estimate looks low when you pull out the A24 comps. I know its tricky but maybe comping against films with similar number of Thurs shows might be helpful.... Barbarian starts at 7pm and many of the comps started much earlier.

Either way this looks to be breaking out, 15m OW is not that unreasonable here imo.

[Flopped]

50 minutes ago, Sandro Mazzola said:

These Barbarian sales look really really good, that 900k estimate looks low when you pull out the A24 comps. I know its tricky but maybe comping against films with similar number of Thurs shows might be helpful.... Barbarian starts at 7pm and many of the comps started much earlier.

Either way this looks to be breaking out, 15m OW is not that unreasonable here imo.

Hmmm The Invitation did 800K. 

[filmlover]

Next week's theater estimates according to The Numbers:

 

The Woman King: 3,500

See How They Run: 2,200

The Silent Twins: 250

[misterpepp]

Heard a decent amount of Brahmastra showings tonight were cancelled, including the IMAX at AMC Lincoln Square in NY. Something about corrupted files.

 

Also heard there might've been some confusion over whether the IMAX shows would be 2D or 3D. Apparently Disney is only providing IMAX 3D, but seems a lot of theaters thought they were getting 2D instead, either partially or completely.

Edited September 9, 2022 by datpepper

[DAJK]

Barbarian actually looking... decent(?) tonight. Nothing spectacular obviously, but at this point it's pretty much guaranteed to open above Malignant, which was where I had the bar for success a few weeks ago. Something like 0.9-1M previews would be pretty solid for it.

[Grebacio]

Barbarian starts with good audience reception.

83% Verified Score, 50+ votes, 4.2/5 Avg 

82% All Audiences, 50+ votes 4.1/5 Avg

 

Double Digits OW seems more and more likely.

 

[charlie Jatinder]

Barbarian Harkins - 1424/9824 (55 showings) $16,665
 

$900-950K.

[charlie Jatinder]

31 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Barbarian Harkins - 1424/9824 (55 showings) $16,665
 

$900-950K.

Good sales for FRI. 599/43695 (168 showings) $6,997

 

Can go for $3M True FRI

[lorddemaxus]

If this does double digits, I think Malignant would've gone above $15 mil under similar conditions. 

[CJohn]

7 hours ago, filmlover said:

Next week's theater estimates according to The Numbers:

 

The Woman King: 3,500

See How They Run: 2,200

The Silent Twins: 250

2.200 is the Disney estimated TC for every FOX movie. Maybe Amsterdam and The Menu can get 3.000.

[filmlover]

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 9/8/22)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
9/16/2022	God’s Country					IFC Films
9/16/2022	Running the Bases					UP2U Films
9/16/2022	See How They Run					Searchlight Pictures
9/16/2022	The Silent Twins					Focus Features
9/16/2022	The Woman King	$16,000,000 – $21,000,000		$42,000,000 – $67,000,000		Sony / TriStar Pictures
9/23/2022	Avatar (2022 Re-Release)	$10,000,000 – $20,000,000		$20,000,000 – $50,000,000		Disney / 20th Century Studios
9/23/2022	Don’t Worry Darling	$13,000,000 – $18,000,000	+19%	$35,000,000 – $55,000,000		Warner Bros. Pictures
9/30/2022	Bros	$10,000,000 – $15,000,000		$34,000,000 – $59,000,000		Universal Pictures
9/30/2022	Smile	$15,000,000 – $20,000,000		$35,000,000 – $65,000,000		Paramount Pictures
10/7/2022	Amsterdam	$10,000,000 – $15,000,000		$35,000,000 – $60,000,000		Disney / 20th Century Studios
10/7/2022	Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile	$18,000,000 – $23,000,000		$66,000,000 – $95,000,000		Sony / Columbia Pictures

 

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast: October's Amsterdam and Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile - Boxoffice (boxofficepro.com)

[Eric Lasagna]

Quorum Updates

Don't Worry Darling T-15: 29.64% Awareness, 5.08 Interest

Smile T-22: 29.74%, 5.38

Lyle, Lyle Crocodile T-29: 21.96%, 4.70

Tar T-29: 10.22%, 3.85

Halloween Ends T-36: 47.61%, 6.13

Armageddon Time T-64: 13.48%, 4.98

Knock at the Cabin: T-148: 20%, 5.33

 

Barbarian T-1: 20.52% Awareness, 4.98 Interest

Comps (All Final): The Night House w/ 18.09% Awareness & 5.17 Interest, Antlers w/ 21.71% & 4.81, The Cursed w/ 25.12% & 5.12, X w/ 23.58% & 4.94, Men w/ 18.5% & 4.7

 

Final General Awareness: 0% chance of double-digits opening

General Interest: 23% chance of double digits

Horror Awareness: 0% chance of double digits

Horror Interest: 33% chance of double digits

 

[misterpepp]

I am told tix for the Avatar remaster go on sale this Monday, 9/12, at around noon EST.

[John2015]

How is "MEDIEVAL" doing so far?  It is Michael Caine's last film before his retirement, and I had actually seen some TV spots of this films? 

[misterpepp]

10 hours ago, datpepper said:

I am told tix for the Avatar remaster go on sale this Monday, 9/12, at around noon EST.

 

Want to add that there will be no Thursday preview shows for this. First that's happened in a while for any sort of release, especially one from Disney.

 

10 hours ago, John2015 said:

How is "MEDIEVAL" doing so far?  It is Michael Caine's last film before his retirement, and I had actually seen some TV spots of this films? 

 

Not well at all, based on the seating charts I've seen.

Edited September 10, 2022 by datpepper