The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[cooldude97]

about a day from the first domestic screenings, any final predictions for Black Adam?

[WrathOfHan]

lol who the hell was expecting Black Adam reviews to impact tracking? This movie is being sold on The Rock making dumb faces and killing people as a DC character. You cannot tell me people don't know what they are getting into.

 

 

Edited October 20, 2022 by WrathOfHan

[Durden]

29 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

Eh? MoM was about 10pts higher than thor 4 in critic score and audience score on RT

 

I was talking about the reactions when the social embargo lifted (tweets, basically).

 

With MoM the critics were pointing issues with the script since the beginning, while with L&T there were reactions like "same level as Ragnarok" or even "better than Ragnarok", including me 😅

Edited October 20, 2022 by Durden

[Menor the Destroyer]

MoM is not comparable as reactions and reviews lifted at essentially the same time. Thor L&T had a fairly limited reactions bump, it was buried in the news as iirc that was the day that Roe was overturned. 

Edited October 20, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

2 hours ago, YSLDC said:

I've seen people go as far to say it'll open under 50M just because of Rotten Tomatoes like 20M worth of tickets just disappear because of an online rating system 😅

 

And John Campea is going with 120M OW for Black Adam so that evens out.

[cooldude97]

2 minutes ago, AnotherDayAnotherDollar said:

And John Campea is going with 120M OW for Black Adam so that evens out.

DOMESTIC? he's ether insane or a blind  corporate stooge 

[ZackM]

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-22 days
	Last Day	Previous 2 Days
Showings Added	17	5
Seats Added	1,536	1,067
Seats Sold	2,587	5,224
10/19/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	439	7,292	159,773	1,140,697	14.01%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	14	64	235	419
ATP
$17.28
Black Panther Double Feature Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-22 days
10/19/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	92	93	5,945	22,048	26.96%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	1	6	9	21
ATP
$17.60

[cax16]

31 minutes ago, AnotherDayAnotherDollar said:

And John Campea is going with 120M OW for Black Adam so that evens out.

Lol nvm, don’t want to derail the thread. 

Edited October 20, 2022 by cax16

[Eric is Quiet]

44 minutes ago, AnotherDayAnotherDollar said:

And John Campea is going with 120M OW for Black Adam so that evens out.

[keysersoze123]

24 minutes ago, ZackM said:

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-22 days
	Last Day	Previous 2 Days
Showings Added	17	5
Seats Added	1,536	1,067
Seats Sold	2,587	5,224
10/19/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	439	7,292	159,773	1,140,697	14.01%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	14	64	235	419
ATP
$17.28
Black Panther Double Feature Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-22 days
10/19/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	92	93	5,945	22,048	26.96%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	1	6	9	21
ATP
$17.60

We have some comps with Thor 4(only T-18/19) and DS2(equivalent data).

With no catalyst it will be tracking at ~27m relative to Thor 4 but way worse pace. It will take post reactions for BP2 to catch up to Thor 4 pace. DS2  is tracking ~ 22.5m. But its pace had tapered off as it had another week of PS compared to Thor at this point. So that comparable number will keep going up. BP2 daily pace is 80% of DS2 at this point. It should exceed that post reactions and DS2 wont be a good comp until final day of release. 

 

 

On 6/19/2022 at 8:10 PM, ZackM said:

Added 14 theaters to Alpha tracking, so keep that in mind when I start posting comps, though it shouldn't make a huge difference given the total number of theaters.

 

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-18 days
	Last Day
Showings Added	6,298
Seats Added	1,094,306
Seats Sold	181,069
6/19/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	437	6,298	181,069	1,094,306	16.55%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	7	56	226	445
ATP
$17.30

 

 

On 4/14/2022 at 7:15 PM, ZackM said:

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-21 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	Previous 3 Days
Showings Added	0	33	222
Seats Added	0	2,791	14,853
Seats Sold	3,186	4,630	16,935
4/14/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	429	6,914	264,866	1,166,292	22.71%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	6	36	172	483	842
ATP
$16.92

 

[Porthos]

On 10/19/2022 at 1:43 AM, Porthos said:

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-23 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	294	31209	37019	5810	15.69%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

102

 

T-23 Comp

	%		Sold T-23	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	66.18		195	8779		0/329	32131/40910	21.46%		21117	27.51%		23.83m
L&T	122.99		563	4724		0/228	26876/31600	14.95%		16962	34.25%		35.67m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Black Panther 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1365/11833  [11.54% sold]
Matinee:    273/4102  [6.66% | 4.70% of all tickets sold]

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-22 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	294	31071	37019	5948	16.07%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

138

 

T-22 Comp

	%		Sold T-22	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	66.48		168	8947		0/329	31963/40910	21.87%		21117	28.17%		23.93m
L&T	117.55		336	5060		0/228	26540/31600	16.01%		16962	35.07%		34.09m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Black Panther 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      1387/11833  [11.72% sold]
Matinee:    282/4102  [6.87% | 4.74% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

On 10/19/2022 at 1:44 AM, Porthos said:

 

Black Adam Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	232	28250	30819	2569	8.34%

 

Total Showings Added Today	9
Total Seats Added Today	905
Total Seats Sold Today	397

 

T-2 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS	241.90		167	1062		0/105	15390/16452	6.46%		2352	109.23%		9.92m
SC	78.35		490	3279		0/183	21325/24604	13.33%		5847	43.94%		6.89m
LTBC	68.42		718	3755		0/241	29214/32969	11.39%		7712	33.31%		7.94m
ET	65.32		496	3933		0/130	14226/18159	21.66%		6409	40.08%		6.21m
Bats	32.45		1149	7918		0/326	30853/38771	20.42%		11757	21.85%		7.01m
Morb	134.86		328	1905		0/181	22143/24048	7.92%		3477	73.89%		7.69m
JW3	37.45		796	6859		0/288	26655/33514	20.47%		10966	23.43%		6.74m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Black Adam's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-2 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	98.58		397	2460		0/143	15720/18180	13.53%		4407	55.03%		7.33m
BA (adj)			388	2425		0/205	24518/26943	9.00%

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  BA (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:      589/11166  [5.27% sold]
Matinee:    129/3757  [3.43% | 5.02% of all tickets sold]

 

Black Adam Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	249	28462	31616	3154	9.98%

 

Total Showings Added Today	17
Total Seats Added Today	797
Total Seats Sold Today	585

 

T-1 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS	234.85		281	1343		0/107	15221/16564	8.11%		2352	134.10%		9.63m
SC	75.60		893	4172		0/188	20813/24985	16.70%		5847	53.94%		6.65m
LTBC	61.52		1372	5127		0/244	28009/33136	15.47%		7712	40.90%		7.14m
ET	67.51		739	4672		0/136	13796/18468	25.30%		6409	49.21%		6.41m
Bats	33.06		1621	9539		1/327	29315/38854	24.55%		11757	26.83%		7.14m
Morb	127.07		577	2482		0/184	21853/24335	10.20%		3477	90.71%		7.24m
JW3	37.46		1560	8419		0/290	25319/33738	24.95%		10966	28.76%		6.74m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Black Adam's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-1 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	102.31		439	2899		0/168	17632/20531	14.12%		4407	67.30%		7.61m
BA (adj)			541	2966		0/222	24774/27740	10.69%

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  BA (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:       715/11500  [6.22% sold]
Matinee:    165/3831  [4.31% | 5.23% of all tickets sold]

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Black Adam	T-1	Jax	6	88	193	793	13,316	5.96%
		Phx	7	63	119	721	10,934	6.59%
		Ral	8	76	110	769	10,365	7.42%
ATP: 14.66	Total		21	227	422	2,283	34,615	6.60%
Paradise	T-1	Jax	5	15	8	59	2,047	2.88%
		Phx	7	22	9	41	2,470	1.66%
		Ral	8	19	35	96	1,798	5.34%
ATP: 11.81	Total		20	56	52	196	6,315	3.10%
Paradise (EA)	T-0	Jax	2	2	12	94	400	23.50%
	Total		2	2	12	94	400	23.50%

 

Paradise T-1 comps

 - Lost City - .406x (1.01m)

 - Bullet Train - .265x (886k)

 - Easter Sunday - 1.85x (925k)

 - Marry Me - 1.39x (730k)

 

Paradise + EA T-1 comps

 - Lost City + EA - .392x (1.27m)

 - Bullet Train + EA - .29x (1.34m)

 

Black Adam T-1 comps

 - Eternals - .668x (6.35m)

 - Black Widow - .488x (6.45m)

 - Shang-Chi - .932x (8.2m)

 - Morbius - 1.32x (7.52m)

- Venom 2 - .863x (10.02)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Black Adam	T-0	Jax	6	90	211	1,004	13,390	7.50%
		Phx	7	66	183	904	11,057	8.18%
		Ral	8	83	127	896	11,007	8.14%
	Total		21	239	521	2,804	35,454	7.91%
Paradise	T-0	Jax	5	15	17	76	2,047	3.71%
		Phx	7	22	22	63	2,470	2.55%
		Ral	8	21	48	144	1,884	7.64%
	Total		20	58	87	283	6,401	4.42%

 

Paradise T-0 comps

 - Lost City - .413x (1.03m)

 - Bullet Train - .271x (908k)

 - Easter Sunday - 2.26x (1.13m)

 - Marry Me - 1.617x (849k)

 

Paradise + EA T-0 comps

 - Lost City + EA - .4x (1.3m)

 - Bullet Train + EA - .29x (1.33m)

 

Thinking around 950k Th and around 1.3m full previews.  

 

Black Adam T-0 comps

 - Eternals - .676x (6.42m)

 - Black Widow - .484x (6.39m)

 - Shang-Chi - .931x (8.2m)

 - Morbius - 1.25x (7.13m)

- Venom 2 - .749x (8.69m)

 

Not really improving against any of the comps.  Hopefully walkups will be big for the Rock or else we're probably looking at around 7m

[snarkmachine]

Black Adam doing worse than Shang-Chi did at the height of the pandemic would be a disaster for WB and the Rock.

[filmlover]

Ticket to Paradise ended up adding a second early show last night after the first one filled up in a big auditorium. Selling well for tonight and the weekend too (some theaters for the weekend have even moved some extra Black Adam shows in the afternoon around to smaller theaters so that it can play in bigger auditoriums during the day). Thinking it matches or overperforms tracking at this point.

Edited October 20, 2022 by filmlover

[Eric is Quiet]

On 10/19/2022 at 12:57 AM, Eric Adam said:

Black Adam Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	129	1927	24783	7.78%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 326

 

Comp

0.994x of F9 T-2 (7.06M)

0.449x of Black Widow T-2 (5.93M)

2.146x of The Suicide Squad T-2 (8.8M)

0.733x of Shang-Chi T-2 (6.45M)

0.891x of Venom 2 T-2 (10.33M)

1.031x of No Time to Die T-2 (6.49M)

0.614x of Eternals T-2 (5.84M)

1.274x of Morbius T-2 (7.26M)

1.302x of Fantastic Beasts 3 T-2 (7.81M)

0.550x of Jurassic World 3 T-2 (9.91M)

Black Adam Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	129	2316	24783	9.35%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 389

 

Comp

0.917x of F9 T-1 (6.51M)

0.450x of Black Widow T-1 (5.94M)

2.117x of The Suicide Squad T-1 (8.68M)

0.715x of Shang-Chi T-1 (6.29M)

0.777x of Venom 2 T-1 (9.02M)

1.004x of No Time to Die T-1 (6.33M)

0.634x of Eternals T-1 (6.02M)

1.254x of Morbius T-1 (7.15M)

1.348x of Fantastic Beasts 3 T-1 (8.09M)

0.556x of Jurassic World 3 T-1 (10.01M)

[katnisscinnaplex]

16 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Black Adam	PLF	39	1,352	1,352	8,898	15.19%	$15.06	$20,367.61
		Standard	66	843	843	8,768	9.61%	$11.34	$9,560.85
	Total		105	2,195	2,195	17,666	12.42%	$13.63	$29,928.46
T-1	Paradise	Standard	32	174	174	2,710	6.42%	$12.55	$2,183.55
	Total		32	174	174	2,710	6.42%	$12.55	$2,183.55

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Black Adam	N	85	1,967	1,967	14,663	13.41%	$14.04	$27,608.66
		Y	20	228	228	3,003	7.59%	$10.17	$2,319.80
	Total		105	2,195	2,195	17,666	12.42%	$13.63	$29,928.46

 

Was planning on just setting my sheets up for tomorrow but figured I'd go ahead and take a look.  This is much later in the day than normal, so comps will be inflated a bit.  (Started around 2:30pm Santikos time).

 

Black Adam T-1 comps

 - Batman - .364x (6.41m)

 - Batman + EA - .339x (7.33m)

 - Thor 4 - .237x (6.88m)

 - Morbius - 1.539x (8.77m)

 

Paradise T-1 comps

 - Downton - .883x (927k)

 - Crawdads - .465x (930k)

 - Easter Sunday - 3.164x (1.58m)

 - Bob's Burgers - .654x (981k)

 

Hopefully can get final numbers in the morning, but these are pointing to similar numbers as my regionals

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Black Adam	PLF	39	164	1,516	8,898	17.04%	$15.08	$22,860.37
		Standard	66	269	1,112	8,768	12.68%	$11.23	$12,492.36
	Total		105	433	2,628	17,666	14.88%	$13.45	$35,352.73
T-0	Paradise	Standard	32	50	224	2,710	8.27%	$12.31	$2,758.06
	Total		32	50	224	2,710	8.27%	$12.31	$2,758.06

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Black Adam	N	85	390	2,357	14,663	16.07%	$13.85	$32,639.68
		Y	20	43	271	3,003	9.02%	$10.01	$2,713.05
	Total		105	433	2,628	17,666	14.88%	$13.45	$35,352.73

 

Black Adam T-0 comps

 - Batman - .351x (6.18m)

 - Batman + EA - .332x (7.16m)

 - Thor 4 - .232x (6.73m)

 - Morbius - 1.334x (7.6m)

 

On the lower side here too.  I'll go with 7m for previews

 

Paradise T-0 comps

 - Downton - .929x (976k)

 - Crawdads - .436x (872k)

 - Easter Sunday - 3.394x (1.7m)

 - Bob's Burgers - .649x (974k)

 

Should get close to a million.  Maybe 975k true Thursday

[Eric is Quiet]

On 10/19/2022 at 1:10 AM, Eric Adam said:

Ticket to Paradise Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	44	72	5531	1.30%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 21

 

Comp

0.323x of Free Guy T-2 (710K)

0.426x of Dear Evan Hansen T-2 (341K)

0.371x of West Side Story T-2 (297K)

0.402x of Death on the Nile T-2 (442K)

0.889x of Marry Me T-2 (467K)

0.349x of Dog T-2 (440K)

0.106x of The Lost City T-2 (346K)

0.112x of Elvis T-2 (392K)

0.277x of Crawdads T-2 (637K)

1.756x of Easter Sunday T-2 (878K)

1.500x of Bros T-2 (750K)

0.367x of Amsterdam T-2 (202K)

Ticket to Paradise Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	44	102	5531	1.84%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 30

 

Comp

0.335x of Free Guy T-1 (738K)

0.389x of Dear Evan Hansen T-1 (311K)

0.279x of House of Gucci T-1 (362K)

0.386x of West Side Story T-1 (309K)

0.389x of Death on the Nile T-1 (428K)

0.971x of Marry Me T-1 (510K)

0.453x of Dog T-1 (571K)

0.132x of The Lost City T-1 (428K)

0.138x of Elvis T-1 (484K)

0.310x of Crawdads T-1 (713K)

2.318x of Easter Sunday T-1 (1.16M)

1.146x of Bros T-1 (573K)

0.477x of Amsterdam T-1 (262K)

 

And just to clarify, no Early Access shows played near me (I guess it's just a Cinemark thing?), so this is why the bump doesn't seem to have leapfrogged. Just putting that out of the way so there's no confusion.

[Maggie]

‘Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’ Tracking for Huge $175M-Plus Debut

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/black-panther-wakanda-forever-box-office-tracking-1235245172/

[Eric is Quiet]

On 10/19/2022 at 1:15 AM, Eric Adam said:

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-23 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	246	5722	42932	13.33%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 125

 

Comp

0.702x of Doctor Strange 2 T-23 (25.27M)

1.396x of Thor 4 T-23 (40.49M)

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-22 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	246	5844	42932	13.61%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 122

 

Comp

0.703x of Doctor Strange 2 T-22 (25.3M)

1.385x of Thor 4 T-22 (40.18M)