The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Eric S'ennui]

Quorum Updates

Till T-1: 29.97% Awareness, 5.7 Interest

She Said T-22: 15.72%, 4.64

The Menu T-22: 20.29%, 5.23

The Fabelmans T-27: 12.53%, 4.72

Empire of Light T-43: 11.19%, 4.66

Avatar: The Way of Water T-50: 65.36%, 6.53

Plane T-92: 22.17%, 5.41

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania T-113: 35.85%, 5.88

 

Call Jane T-1: 18.19% Awareness, 4.86 Interest

Comps (All Final): The Outfit w/ 15.05% Awareness & 4.97 Interest, Mr. Malcolm's List w/ 23.2% & 4.38, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris w/ 18.93% & 4.28, Vengeance w/ 18.09% & 5.55, The Good House w/ 18.62% & 4.63

 

Final General Awareness: 5% chance of double-digit opening

General Interest: 24% chance of double-digit opening

Original - Low Awareness: 11% chance of 5M or higher

Original - Low Interest: 22% chance of 5M or higher

 

Prey for the Devil T-1: 32.8% Awareness, 5.54 Interest

Comps (All Final): Don't Breathe 2 w/ 30.47% Awareness & 4.94 Interest, The Night House w/ 18.09% & 5.17, Candyman w/ 38.61% & 4.67, The Black Phone w/ 40% & 5.94

 

Final General Awareness: 26% chance of double-digit opening

General Interest: 86% chance of double-digit opening

Horror Awareness: 31% chance of double-digit opening

Horror Interest: 100% chance of double-digit opening

[M37]

11 hours ago, jedijake said:

Ummmmm.......seriously? Is that what those numbers are really about?

I doubt its the full explanation, but almost certainly playing a major role. With that said, as someone who consistently notes demographics, it is important to remember that putting complex individuals into simplified groups of people will only ever get you part of the way to an explanation/expectation of behavior. Particularly with something like movies, which is a social activity (in that you watch what your friends are watching and/or talking about, and there's often a compounding effect).

 

2 hours ago, krla said:

Youth demos play a big role for comic book movies. Denver youth are roughly 25% white, 13% black, 52% Hispanic, 3% Asian. Sacramento youth are roughly 17% white, 13% black, 40% Hispanic, 20% Asian.

 

If you ever look at demo breakdowns for various movies, you'll almost always see Asians are overrepresented. Though I can't find any breakdown for Black Panther that includes Asians. But this could be an explanation for the difference between Denver and Sacramento. 

Another key point: overall population =/= movie-going audience; the latter is a sub-set, and often includes delineations that are missed from pure census data

FWIW: Screen Engine/ComScore PostTrak reports 37% African-Americans attending, followed by 35% Caucasian, 18% Hispanic, and 5% Asian [through Sat]

 

One other thing to keep in mind is time of year, and how that may affect sales patterns, even though we presume the big CBMs are mostly immune from outside factors. Not that I think its a even a good comp for a variety of reasons, but as of 10/21 (T-14) Denver had sold 1329 tickets for Eternals, which would comp to BPWF at 2.91x or $29.66M (before adjusting for a higher ATP). So it could something as basic as October is a bad movie month for the Denver market, and sales will pick up after Halloween (filed under the "randomness" @Porthos noted)

 

the tl;dr - this kind of nuanced variation is why blending the data from several markets & chains gives a more complete picture of where tracking stands

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 10/26/2022 at 10:58 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Black Panther 2	T-15	Jax	6	128	72	1,887	18,561	10.17%
		Phx	6	125	20	1,483	18,513	8.01%
		Ral	8	120	84	2,437	14,882	16.38%
ATP: 14.71*	Total		20	373	176	5,807	51,956	11.18%
BP2 DF	T-15	Jax	2	2	3	125	198	63.13%
	Total		2	2	3	125	198	63.13%
One Piece	T-8	Jax	5	24	11	145	5,074	2.86%
		Phx	5	14	4	160	2,702	5.92%
		Ral	7	19	11	162	2,929	5.53%
ATP: 14.24	Total		17	57	26	467	10,705	4.36%

*ATP is using opening prices.  I've noticed Regal prices have jumped by $1+ per show, but not sure how to account for that with so many sales at previous price*

 

One Piece T-8 comps

 - Dragon Ball - .567x (2.44m)

 

Black Panther T-15 comps

 - Black Widow - 3.244x (42.82m)

 - Thor 4 - 1.15x (33.35m)

 - DS2 (T-27) - .6x (21.61m)

 - NWH - .373x (18.63m)

 - Batman - 2.08x (36.63m)

 

On 10/27/2022 at 8:33 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
One Piece	T-7	Jax	5	24	9	154	5,074	3.04%
		Phx	5	14	9	169	2,702	6.25%
		Ral	7	19	5	167	2,929	5.70%
	Total		17	57	23	490	10,705	4.58%

 

One Piece T-8 comps

 - Dragon Ball - .561x (2.413m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Black Panther 2	T-13	Jax	6	128	176*	2,063	18,561	11.11%
		Phx	6	125	137*	1,620	18,513	8.75%
		Ral	8	120	138*	2,575	14,882	17.30%
	Total		20	373	451*	6,258	51,956	12.04%
BP2 DF	T-13	Jax	2	3	5*	130	292	44.52%
	Total		2	3	5*	130	292	44.52%
One Piece	T-6	Jax	5	24	4	158	5,074	3.11%
		Phx	5	14	2	171	2,702	6.33%
		Ral	7	19	10	177	2,929	6.04%
	Total		17	57	16	506	10,705	4.73%

*BP new sales since Wednesday*

 

One Piece T-6 comps

 - Dragon Ball - .532x (2.287m)

 

Black Panther T-13 comps

 - Black Widow - 3.07x (40.53m)

 - Thor 4 - missed

 - DS2 (T-27) - .62x (22.38m)

 - NWH - .361x (18.03m)

 - Batman - missed

[Krissykins]

Looks like Prey for the Devil had decent walk ups then, tracking here looked to point to sub $500k for a while. $660k previews. 
 

Still only about $5-6m for the weekend though probably. 

[el sid]

2 hours ago, Krissykins said:

Looks like Prey for the Devil had decent walk ups then, tracking here looked to point to sub $500k for a while. $660k previews. 
 

Still only about $5-6m for the weekend though probably. 

Let's see 🤔. From (almost) all Thursday reports here it looked worse. Especially judging from "my" theaters I would have said maybe it will get 400k. So I guess the walk-ups must have been quite decent. And the Friday numbers looked better.
 

Prey for the Devil had today at 9am EST 322 sold tickets for today. Up 23% since yesterday.
Idk if this number is good or bad but that means it sold twice as many tickets as yesterday (yesterday it had 164 sold tickets for Thursday).

As mentioned, it should have been 666k. Would have been such a nice marketing gag: "The film that is cursed itself" or something .

[Menor the Destroyer]

From last night:

 

Wakanda Forever Marcus Theaters (T-14)

 

Thursday

Showtimes: 885

Seats Sold: 17943/126192 (+1253)

0.871x Thor 4 (25.26 million)

 

Friday

Showtimes: 1489

Seats Sold: 16397/211210 (+1465)

1.334x Thor 4 (54.02 million)

[jedijake]

Surprised we haven't heard or seen any stories about BPWF's presales numbers. I remember all the hoopla about how BP1's numbers were crushing every superhero movie. For WF....zippo.

[GOGODanca]

**Black Panther: Wakanda Forever**

 “Black Panther” opened in 2018 to $200 million followed by an outstanding 3.5 multiple, getting to $700 million. With more than a 20 percent ticket price increase, that would be over $850 million today.

 

The inexact science of **tracking predicts a $175 million opening weekend** (ticket-price increases would put the 2018 original at over $240 million); **industry consensus suggests a $600 million total gross.** Its world premiere Wednesday night ranged between enthusiastic and rapturous, with a few caveats for fan service and length. **But $700 million definitely seems possible.**

**Avatar: The Way of Water**

 As for “Avatar: The Way of Water,” it could be #1 domestic for 2022 releases.  Thirteen years ago, the original was a massive hit with its then-breakthrough 3D; in adjusted results, it’s #15 all time. The 3D is back and probably even more impressive, but today’s median age for blockbuster audiences is 20-25; they were 7 -12 when the original “Avatar” was released. Many saw it, but familiarity is not certain.

 Past performance guides but never guarantees. It would be no surprise if “The Way of Water” beats everything in 2022, and maybe even 2021 when “Spider-Man: No Way Home” grossed $814 million. **Industry sources say it will best “Wakanda,” with a consensus around $650 million, but the range of estimates stretch from $500 million to $1 billion.**

 

https://www.indiewire.com/2022/10/top-gun-maverick-wakanda-forever-avatar-2-box-office-1234776420/

[Menor the Destroyer]

8 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Surprised we haven't heard or seen any stories about BPWF's presales numbers. I remember all the hoopla about how BP1's numbers were crushing every superhero movie. For WF....zippo.

Because BPWF is not crushing every superhero movie. But the picture is completely different from 2018, the MCU fanbase has become a lot more presale-heavy. IW/EG really changed things. 

[AJG]

3 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Because BPWF is not crushing every superhero movie. But the picture is completely different from 2018, the MCU fanbase has become a lot more presale-heavy. IW/EG really changed things. 

 

Yep. IW boosted the presales. 
 

Also I’m pretty certain we all thought it would open to about $145m a week beforehand. Weekend predictions were around $175m. 

[Krissykins]

I can’t imagine Hollywood would want to do early headlines unless it was tracking to out-open the first film? 

[misterpepp]

Happy Friday! I’m told Fabelmans is on sale Nov 1 and She Said on Nov 3.

[filmlover]

24 minutes ago, datpepper said:

Happy Friday! I’m told Fabelmans is on sale Nov 1 and She Said on Nov 3.

Hoping both of these overperform what's currently expected of them to show signs of life for the prestige drama at the box office.

[Tinalera]

Black Panther 2

Nov 10/11 (T-13 Thurs. T-14 Fri)

SW/Toronto Ontario

 

	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	20	135	5308	28183	33491	0.1584
Fri	20	161	4571	38759	43330	0.1054

 

 

Comps 

Thurs 

Dr Strange 2 (missed)

Black Adam (missed)

x .7914 Thor 4 (3.87 Mil cdn)

 

Fri

Dr Strange 2 (missed)

Black Adam (missed)

x 1.017 Thor 4 (4.98 Mil Cdn)

 

Sorry about the missed comps for BA and DS2, I don't have a lot of comps 14 days out, trying to fix that with more movies as I go along. Still working on getting my lists down

[Cap]

9 hours ago, M37 said:

Particularly with something like movies, which is a social activity (in that you watch what your friends are watching and/or talking about, and there's often a compounding effect).

Bestie and I were legit just talking about this in regards to the movie. 
 

When I used to track my local theaters, they were basically dead for presales. Very walk up heavy and only Thursday IMAX sold before like the T-2 day mark.

 

I just checked tickets sold for the IMAX screen for the weekend:

 

Thursday: 140

Friday: 142

Saturday: 89

Sunday: 33

 

Again, I have not tracked the theater and like a good six months, but unless things did a radical 180 in that time, that is incredibly spread out for where sales are normally, and particularly for a Marvel movie.

 

My friend and I were contemplating that with this being such an emotional affair, it feels like something you are would to forgo seeing it opening night — If that means we can all go together as a group on Saturday morning. Totally just personal thought, but I don’t think I’d go see the movie alone. I feel like I want this to be a communal feeling. And not everyone is available on Thursday night to make that happen.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

830

3301

25.14%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

544

2758

19.72%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
3869	209	32294	11.98%	15	225

 

AMCs sold	2289
Cinemarks sold	740
Regals sold	379
Harkins sold	461

 

0.836x Thor L&T T-14 (24.25M)

0.531x Doctor Strange MoM T-14 (19.12M)

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

860

3301

26.05%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

561

2758

20.34%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
4000	131	32294	12.39%	15	225

 

AMCs sold	2354
Cinemarks sold	771
Regals sold	390
Harkins sold	485

 

0.841x Thor L&T T-13 (24.37M)

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Megaplex [+2 days of sales]

 

T-14 Thursday(99 showings): 2579(+166)/29419

0.593x Thor L&T T-14 (17.20M)

0.323x Doctor Strange MoM T-14 (11.63M)

 

T-15 Friday(160 showings): 1552(+172)/45165

0.655x Thor L&T T-15 (26.56M)

0.361x Doctor Strange MoM T-15 (19.73M)

 

T-16 Saturday(163 showings): 1021(+84)/47913

0.884x Thor L&T T-16 (37.23M)

0.418x Doctor Strange MoM T-16 (24.16M)

 

T-17 Sunday(140 showings): 212(+15)/42321

0.493x Thor L&T T-17 (16.02M)

0.362x Doctor Strange MoM T-17 (14.07M)

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Megaplex

 

T-13 Thursday(99 showings): 2643(+64)/29419

0.585x Thor L&T T-13 (16.98M)

 

T-14 Friday(160 showings): 1680(+128)/45165

0.670x Thor L&T T-14 (27.17M)

 

T-15 Saturday(163 showings): 1095(+74)/47913

0.900x Thor L&T T-15 (37.89M)

 

T-16 Sunday(140 showings): 225(+13)/42321

0.478x Thor L&T T-16 (15.53M)

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Alamo Drafthouse [+2 days of sales]

 

T-14 Thursday(219 showings): 12481(+452)/30510 ATP: $16.13

1.11x Thor L&T T-14 (32.11M)

0.780x Doctor Strange MoM T-14 (28.09M)

 

T-15 Friday(327 showings): 13707(+763)/46457 ATP: $15.72

1.50x Thor L&T T-15 (61.02M)

0.983x Doctor Strange MoM T-15 (53.77M)

 

T-16 Saturday(330 showings): 11783(+726)/47364 ATP: $15.33

1.43x Thor L&T T-16 (60.09M)

0.815x Doctor Strange MoM T-16 (47.10M)

 

T-17 Sunday(319 showings): 6565(+485)/45087 ATP: $15.39

1.46x Thor L&T T-17 (47.46M)

0.54x Doctor Strange MoM T-17 (37.10M)

Black Panther Wakanda Forever Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-13 Thursday(219 showings): 12852(+371)/30510 ATP: $16.14

1.09x Thor L&T T-13 (31.63M)

 

T-14 Friday(327 showings): 14287(+580)/46457 ATP: $15.70

1.50x Thor L&T T-14 (60.80M)

 

T-15 Saturday(330 showings): 12284(+501)/47364 ATP: $15.33

1.39x Thor L&T T-15 (58.65M)

 

T-16 Sunday(319 showings): 6928(+363)/45087 ATP: $15.37

1.46x Thor L&T T-16 (47.39M)

[AnDr3s]

how's BPWF opening looking?

[cax16]

Finally got some free time as I moved my kids and cats out (to my moms)while Reno’s are still being done so it’s just my wife and I here now lol.

 

Anyhow, I don’t have exact comps like I had before but it’s the best I have right now.

 

Dr Strange day 14 of sales 18605 sold at 24 nearest theatres 
 

Thor day 14 of sales at 24 nearest theatres,  12165 Tickets 

Batman day 14 of sales 9427 seats at 24 nearest theatres 

 

WF day 25 of sales at 24 nearest theatres , 11,169 tickets sold