The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Porthos]

41 minutes ago, Austin said:

I'm kinda new to this tracking stuff but I was wondering if you had comps for Guardians 3? Like with the multipliers as in ×.0153.... of "comp". Or is that something else?

 

I'm sorry if I don't make sense rn it's late for me and probably for you too.

 

Like to wait until we actually have a preview number before bringing in comps, but TLM did 24% of the sales of GOTG3's first day (454/1892 = .23996)

 

But the thing is, GOTG3, even as it is underperforming for a major MCU filmso far  is still gonna have a lot more upfront sales than a film like TLM.  Only threw in Black Adam simply because it wasn't quite as frontloaded as some of the other more recent large CBMs and I wanted something other than Sonic 2 (since I didn't track Mario as that didn't have any Thr previews).

 

As for what the numbers in the "extremely unofficial" section mean?  What the example below this sentence means is:

TLM = 1.74026x Aladdin at the same sources of tracking after one day of sales [14.01m]
 

TLM sold 1.74 times as many tickets as Aladdin did on its first day of sales at the same theaters/types of showtimes I tracked way back in 2019.  And thus would comp to approximately 14m dollars if it kept following the pre-sale pattern of Aladdin from here on out. 

 

Which it won't (if only because it has a different length in pre-sales), but I put it more for a guide than a hard prediction.

 

One of the problems with comping films from now and then is more theaters have shifted to reserved seating, and thus being able to be tracked.  There's more problems that are a bit more esoteric like how a film starting previews at 3pm will just have more sales than one starting at 6pm, plus just the general trend of pre-sales getting more and more frontloaded as the years go on.  

 

Aside from that, every film really is different and while some are similar to others, they all have their quirks that sometimes take a while to become apparent.  

 

Hope this answers what you were asking and don't hesitate to ask more if it isn't.

 

(though Imma 'bout to hit the hay so any further questions will have to wait for the morning/be answered by other folks in the thread )

Edited April 27, 2023 by Porthos

[dxmatrixdt]

does anyone know why Return of the Jedi is outselling all the new openers this weekend?

Edited April 27, 2023 by dxmatrixdt

[stripe]

3 hours ago, Borja9198 said:

Under $100M opening = I M P O S S I B L E

Sadly, it's still possible, though highly unlikely

 

Anyways, I am expecting some really good news in the next days and an opening close to 130M

[Legion Again]

I am not dead, fwiw. Just figured there would be a lot of doom posts around here that I strongly disagreed with and wasn’t in the mood to argue about but that would resolve itself near release.   
 

I haven’t been following this middle portion of sales very closely but I have been keeping an eye on the bat Sacto comp which is sort of the only good size+genre+reception comp (as long as Gotg3 is, in fact, good — a key variable still unknown for a few days or so). Despite the bat EA which, as usual, I am annoyed by.

Edited April 27, 2023 by Favorite Fearless Legion

[JayPrimetown]

Took a deeper look at more AMC Theater numbers around the country.

 

Are You There God seems to have some sprinkling of pockets that do well especially in college towns and more affluent communities.

 

In nearly every theater where Sisu is playing, it is outperforming Are You There and Big George Foreman.

 

Are You There likely finishes atop the pack as it's in many more theaters than Sisu. Even with a disparity in total theater count, I'm struggling to see how Foreman grosses more than Sisu. 

 

Looking like a nice little win here Lionsgate with its Sisu acquisition.

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-22 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	182	26942	27722	780	2.81%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

16

 

T-22 Comp:

%

Sold T-22

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

JWD

44.12

56

1768

0/179

22879/24647

7.17%

33839

2.31%

7.94m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     119/10130  [1.17% sold]
Matinee:    15/3525  [0.43% | 1.92% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

@Menor Reborn Ran out of time today to really sit down and hack out a good adjustment for F9, but I plan on working on it tomorrow before Jedi Survivor drops when I have the time.  FWIW, NTTD will be coming online very soon, and possibly a couple of others.  So more comps coming soon — just not tonight.

Thanks, btw the JWD comp for today seems off, total sold didn't change from yesterday.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

I am not dead, fwiw. Just figured there would be a lot of doom posts around here that I strongly disagreed with and wasn’t in the mood to argue about but that would resolve itself near release.   
 

I haven’t been following this middle portion of sales very closely but I have been keeping an eye on the bat Sacto comp which is sort of the only good size+genre+reception comp (as long as Gotg3 is, in fact, good — a key variable still unknown for a few days or so). Despite the bat EA which, as usual, I am annoyed by.

You have to adjust the raw number for Bat Sacto down a bit but yeah I agree I prefer it somewhat in terms of pace.

[ZackM]

23 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

 

The IMAX Guardians of the Galaxy Marathon Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days
4/25/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	57	57	4,301	17,116	25.13%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	0	0	0
ATP
$46.32

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	13	10	0	2	5
Seats Added	1,224	1,082	0	216	847
Seats Sold	3,777	3,181	3,061	2,049	2,119
4/25/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	431	6,909	118,059	1,124,037	10.50%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	5	28	118	243
ATP
$17.54

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 Comps
	Ant-Man: Quantumania		Black Panther: WF		Thor: Love & Thunder
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9	$12.9	$12.7	$15.6	$16.1	$14.8	$15.3
T-10	$13.0	$12.9	$15.6	$16.2	$14.7	$15.2
T-11	$12.9	$12.8	$15.6	$16.2	$14.7	$15.2
T-12	$12.8	$12.7	$15.5	$16.1	$14.8	$15.2
T-13	$12.8	$12.7	$15.6	$16.1	$14.9	$15.3
T-14	$12.8	$12.7	$15.7	$16.3	$15.1	$15.6
T-15	$12.8	$12.7	$15.9	$16.5	$15.2	$15.7
T-16	$12.8	$12.7	$16.0	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8
T-17	$12.8	$12.6	$15.9	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8

 

 

The IMAX Guardians of the Galaxy Marathon Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days
4/26/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	57	57	4,408	17,116	25.75%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	0	0	0
ATP
$46.31

 

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	9	13	10	0	2
Seats Added	1,914	1,224	1,082	0	216
Seats Sold	4,502	3,777	3,181	3,061	2,049
4/26/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	431	6,918	122,561	1,125,951	10.89%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	5	30	130	250
ATP
$17.49

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 Comps
	Ant-Man: Quantumania		Black Panther: WF		Thor: Love & Thunder
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8	$13.0	$12.8	$15.5	$16.1	$14.9	$15.3
T-9	$12.9	$12.7	$15.6	$16.1	$14.8	$15.3
T-10	$13.0	$12.9	$15.6	$16.2	$14.7	$15.2
T-11	$12.9	$12.8	$15.6	$16.2	$14.7	$15.2
T-12	$12.8	$12.7	$15.5	$16.1	$14.8	$15.2
T-13	$12.8	$12.7	$15.6	$16.1	$14.9	$15.3
T-14	$12.8	$12.7	$15.7	$16.3	$15.1	$15.6
T-15	$12.8	$12.7	$15.9	$16.5	$15.2	$15.7
T-16	$12.8	$12.7	$16.0	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8
T-17	$12.8	$12.6	$15.9	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

I am not dead, fwiw. Just figured there would be a lot of doom posts around here that I strongly disagreed with and wasn’t in the mood to argue about but that would resolve itself near release.   
 

I haven’t been following this middle portion of sales very closely but I have been keeping an eye on the bat Sacto comp which is sort of the only good size+genre+reception comp (as long as Gotg3 is, in fact, good — a key variable still unknown for a few days or so). Despite the bat EA which, as usual, I am annoyed by.

Same for me, I am ignoring all GoTG takes here.

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

I am not dead, fwiw. Just figured there would be a lot of doom posts around here that I strongly disagreed with and wasn’t in the mood to argue about but that would resolve itself near release.   
 

I haven’t been following this middle portion of sales very closely but I have been keeping an eye on the bat Sacto comp which is sort of the only good size+genre+reception comp (as long as Gotg3 is, in fact, good — a key variable still unknown for a few days or so). Despite the bat EA which, as usual, I am annoyed by.

Bats did not finish well. That is why I asked Porthos to add JWD which was the most backloaded among all 100m+ opener last year. Let us see how those comps go. 

 

36 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Same for me, I am ignoring all GoTG takes here.

Still think 25m previews possible?

[keysersoze123]

43 minutes ago, ZackM said:

 

 

The IMAX Guardians of the Galaxy Marathon Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days
4/26/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	57	57	4,408	17,116	25.75%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	0	0	0
ATP
$46.31

 

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	9	13	10	0	2
Seats Added	1,914	1,224	1,082	0	216
Seats Sold	4,502	3,777	3,181	3,061	2,049
4/26/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	431	6,918	122,561	1,125,951	10.89%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	5	30	130	250
ATP
$17.49

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 Comps
	Ant-Man: Quantumania		Black Panther: WF		Thor: Love & Thunder
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8	$13.0	$12.8	$15.5	$16.1	$14.9	$15.3
T-9	$12.9	$12.7	$15.6	$16.1	$14.8	$15.3
T-10	$13.0	$12.9	$15.6	$16.2	$14.7	$15.2
T-11	$12.9	$12.8	$15.6	$16.2	$14.7	$15.2
T-12	$12.8	$12.7	$15.5	$16.1	$14.8	$15.2
T-13	$12.8	$12.7	$15.6	$16.1	$14.9	$15.3
T-14	$12.8	$12.7	$15.7	$16.3	$15.1	$15.6
T-15	$12.8	$12.7	$15.9	$16.5	$15.2	$15.7
T-16	$12.8	$12.7	$16.0	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8
T-17	$12.8	$12.6	$15.9	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8

Good. Should hit 128K today. Could even go higher as the premiere is later today but real action due to reactions/reviews will start tomorrow. 

[keysersoze123]

Mermaid MTC2 Friday - 11300/670234 141242.74 4236 shows

 

Only Comp I have is F2 sold just over 25K seats for OD. But that was way bigger movie and short PS cycle. This run was overnight and its good to see friday already ahead of thursday though its expected for family movies at MTC2. I dont think we will be able to figure out much from OD PS for this movie as we dont have comparable movies since COVID.  

 

 

[THUNDER BIRD]

52 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Same for me, I am ignoring all GoTG takes here.

I know you plan to hit back at all the doom posters when GOTG opens to 130+

[ThomasNicole]

Just now, THUNDER BIRD said:

I know you plan to hit back at all the doom posters when GOTG opens to 130+

130M is still in the realm of statistic possibility so this won´t do the trick  

 

Spoiler

if it manages to ended up over Vol 2 OW tho... he´ll be right to hit back 

 

[M37]

3 hours ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

I haven’t been following this middle portion of sales very closely but I have been keeping an eye on the bat Sacto comp which is sort of the only good size+genre+reception comp (as long as Gotg3 is, in fact, good — a key variable still unknown for a few days or so). Despite the bat EA which, as usual, I am annoyed by.

Batman however underindexed in Sacto by a fair amount.  If you adjusted for PSM, GOTG3 has bumped up to about 82% of Bats, which would project to ~$17.5M, vs ~$13.5M on the AMWQ track. That's basically the preview range we're looking at

 

23 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Bats did not finish well. That is why I asked Porthos to add JWD which was the most backloaded among all 100m+ opener last year. Let us see how those comps go. 

Bats finished extremely well in Sacto (that market appears to be especially review conscious), and better than the big MCU titles for Alpha when you look at just Thursday instead of the total. The EA sales were so large - with little room to grow - that it dragged down the overall rate when they are included

 

[TheFlatLannister]

GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

The Little Mermaid

 

THURSDAY

 

First 24 Hours

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
166	1515	26757	5.6%

^{*Numbers taken as of 10:00am EST}

ATP: $14.38

 

Comparison: 

FAST X

ATP $13.60

 

 

GOTG3

ATP $14.40

 

 

Comps first 24 hours:

Mario OD - 0.934x (1622 tickets sold)

GOTG3 - 0.269x (5629 tickets sold)

 

Too early to make any real predictions...Mario exploded in the final week so that can't be used as a good comp

Edited April 27, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

I know you plan to hit back at all the doom posters when GOTG opens to 130+

Na 130 is a bad opening number, so I won’t be celebrating that.

[Brainbug]

42 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Na 130 is a bad opening number, so I won’t be celebrating that.

 

What number would be that bar for succes for you with GOTG?

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Still think 25m previews possible?

Not 25. I don’t think ever said 25 on serious note. 20 is what I thought was possible 2 weeks ago, no change since then.

[charlie Jatinder]

22 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

What number would be that bar for succes for you with GOTG?

175M+