The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[M37]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

Anyway just looked at showcount for Elemental and it looks terrible. Its going to be the worst wide opener for a Pixar. Terrible decision on Disney part to release it in June. 

Disney has staked a claim to that mid-June Father's Day weekend for years, if not opening than for the second weekend, just like they have for MCU on first weekend in May or an animated movie for Thanksgiving. Only now Pixar (thanks to several straight to D+ releases) have lost their mojo, and others studios are not longer afraid to program against them, and Elemental is going to get washed over by Mermaid and Spider-Verse.

 

Fwiw, I also think it was a bit of a mistake for Sony to squeeze Spider-Verse into the June 2nd date rather than June 23rd, when there's so much more breathing room with only Indy and MI7, both of which should skew older. (I'm not even counting Ruby Gillman)

[filmlover]

Elemental is clearly going more for staying power throughout the summer than it is a big opening. I never saw a reason to expect this to open higher than Lightyear did ($50M).

[JWR]

See... the one thing I'm betting on (and could easily be wrong about) is the fact that Spider-Verse is family-friendly, not exactly a family film the way Mario Bros and Puss in Boots were. It'll do well, but not be the default for people who want something other than a blockbuster. 

[JWR]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Elemental is clearly going more for staying power throughout the summer than it is a big opening. I never saw a reason to expect this to open higher than Lightyear did ($50M).

 

This. The ONLY thing that can save this is word of mouth.

[YM!]

13 minutes ago, M37 said:

Disney has staked a claim to that mid-June Father's Day weekend for years, if not opening than for the second weekend, just like they have for MCU on first weekend in May or an animated movie for Thanksgiving. Only now Pixar (thanks to several straight to D+ releases) have lost their mojo, and others studios are not longer afraid to program against them, and Elemental is going to get washed over by Mermaid and Spider-Verse.

 

Fwiw, I also think it was a bit of a mistake for Sony to squeeze Spider-Verse into the June 2nd date rather than June 23rd, when there's so much more breathing room with only Indy and MI7, both of which should skew older. (I'm not even counting Ruby Gillman)

Tbh Disney as a whole is having this problem for animation even as TLM looks to dominate. Trolls 3 is opening five days before Wicked, Elio is in a competitive March, and Wicked opens the same day as the 2024 WDAS movie. Yes if you move from the spots, it's hard to get them back but if rather have the animation films do good and run away to moree healthy spots.

[M37]

6 minutes ago, JWR said:

See... the one thing I'm betting on (and could easily be wrong about) is the fact that Spider-Verse is family-friendly, not exactly a family film the way Mario Bros and Puss in Boots were. It'll do well, but not be the default for people who want something other than a blockbuster. 

I tend to agree, but I was commenting more about the entire slate. Probably more overlap with SV with even a weak Transformers and strong Flash following it, then anything opening in the next few weeks after. Plus with better show volume as the 2nd option over the July 4th holiday week when you get more all ages family attendance 

[keysersoze123]

9 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Elemental is clearly going more for staying power throughout the summer than it is a big opening. I never saw a reason to expect this to open higher than Lightyear did ($50M).

it will struggle the hold its screens as the releases are not stopping after that. We continue to have one or more wide releases every week into the summer. Plus the expectations of these movies hitting D+ fairly soon after release impacts legs. both Lightyear and Strange World had terrible legs. 

 

Anyway my expectation is not Lightyear OW. That is way too high. 

[YM!]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

it will struggle the hold its screens as the releases are not stopping after that. We continue to have one or more wide releases every week into the summer. Plus the expectations of these movies hitting D+ fairly soon after release impacts legs. both Lightyear and Strange World had terrible legs. 

 

Anyway my expectation is not Lightyear OW. That is way too high. 

I think both Lightyear and Strange World being ass were the major culprits to poor legs. Poor OW, sure the plus did dent it but otherwise no. There's no big kids movie until TMNT this August, and will likely be the summer camp choice.

 

Still think it could do 30-45m OW.

Edited May 16, 2023 by YM!

[Legion Again]

I feel like muted showcounts for Elemental won’t be a problem in the sense of people being unable to find good seats/times and turning away… though that assessment is also an indictment of its own  

Edited May 16, 2023 by Legions of the Galaxy

[AniNate]

I feel like Disney may be keeping Elemental w the wolves with the hope that it can manage to withstand that through its sheer quality and revive Pixar's brandpower, because if they run they're implicitly conceding it's gone.  Will have to see how well that works out. From my local perspective though the allotments don't seem all that lacking.

[YM!]

4 minutes ago, AniNate said:

I feel like Disney may be keeping Elemental w the wolves with the hope that it can manage to withstand that through its sheer quality and revive Pixar's brandpower, because if they run they're implicitly conceding it's gone.  Will have to see how well that works out. From my local perspective though the allotments don't seem all that lacking.

Tbh it may be better to partially concede than taking a blow. Studios are already lining in their spots anyway.

[Issac Newton]

Presales on Fast X are currently below those of F9. It is leading previews and presales for the coming days, but this is a wait-and-see game.

[AniNate]

It's a moot point if Elemental is just mid, but Pixar's financial track record when they do make Oscar-worthy films remains unscathed, and I do think in optimal circumstances Elemental could end up being the movie that hurts everyone else, not the other way around.

[filmlover]

10 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

it will struggle the hold its screens as the releases are not stopping after that. We continue to have one or more wide releases every week into the summer. Plus the expectations of these movies hitting D+ fairly soon after release impacts legs. both Lightyear and Strange World had terrible legs. 

 

Anyway my expectation is not Lightyear OW. That is way too high. 

Honestly, the schedule isn't that crazy over the next month after it comes out. Indiana Jones and Mission: Impossible are the only things resembling blockbusters while everything else (Asteroid City, No Hard Feelings, Insidious, Joy Ride) will obviously be limited in how wide their appeal will be. I guess there's Ruby Gillman for direct competition, but that screams "nonstarter."

[GOGODanca]

https://deadline.com/2023/05/fast-x-box-office-projection-1235368392/

[TheDude391]

1 hour ago, Eric Toretto said:

Quorum Updates

The Boogeyman T-18: 37.54% Awareness

Asteroid City T-39: 17.25%

The Meg 2: The Trench T-81: 30.85%

Dune: Part Two T-172: 31.38%

Napoleon T-191: 17.83%

 

Fast X T-4: 58.33% Awareness

Final Awareness: 53% chance of 40M, 40% chance of 50M, 27% chance of 60M, 20% chance of 90M, 13% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 50% chance of 50M

 

The Little Mermaid T-11: 59.87% Awareness

Final Awareness: 53% chance of 40M, 40% chance of 50M, 27% chance of 60M, 20% chance of 90M, 13% chance of 100M

Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 20M

 

No Hard Feelings T-39: 19.97% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 17% chance of 10M

 

Joy Ride T-53: 20.87% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 56% chance of 10M

Original - Low Awareness: 36% chance of 10M

 

Oppenheimer T-67: 20.22% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 93% chance of 10M, 71% chance of 20M, 50% chance of 30M

Original - High Awareness: 71% chance of 10M, 29% chance of 30M

 

So to clarify some stuff, if you're wondering why Interest isn't here, yesterday Quorum updated their website and their metrics. More specifically, instead of the 0-10 point scale for Interest, it's now a percentage like everything else. So that means all the comps I've done are now null and void and I will have to start that area all over again. Which yes, is very frustrating and annoying. So while I will try to look over and update the Interest metrics accordingly in the future, since a lot of older movies have been updated, we can only do Awareness for the time being. It is what it is, but I think I can manage it.

Oppenheimer that low in awareness is a bit concerning. 

[Jonwo]

I do think that expecting Disney to move their animated films from their prime spots is unrealistic. You're not going to have a Pixar film debut in January or September for example. 

 

12 minutes ago, AniNate said:

I feel like Disney may be keeping Elemental w the wolves with the hope that it can manage to withstand that through its sheer quality and revive Pixar's brandpower, because if they run they're implicitly conceding it's gone.  Will have to see how well that works out. From my local perspective though the allotments don't seem all that lacking.

Exactly, the last thing we want is the narrative that Pixar and to an extent WDAS are damaged goods. You only have to how Ratatouille did in 2007 where it ended up doing $200m domestic despite a low OW. 

[Box Office Hit]

 

[JWR]

 

4 minutes ago, AniNate said:

It's a moot point if Elemental is just mid, but Pixar's financial track record when they do make Oscar-worthy films remains unscathed, and I do think in optimal circumstances Elemental could end up being the movie that hurts everyone else, not the other way around.

 

That depends on three factors:

 

1. Is the word of mouth following Cannes strong or mid?

 

2. Is the last minute push in the marketing going to move the needle?

 

3. Will there be a large enough demand for families?

[keysersoze123]

I dont buy Quorum numbers at all. Its all over the place. Oppenheimer awareness is not an issue. its latest trailer has 22m views in 8 days. That is highest among all latest releases. Plus it has an ensemble that is an easy draw and Nolan's name is a big draw as well. We will know for sure once presales start next month.