The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[charlie Jatinder]

Fast X MiniTC2

 

Previews - 11743/72074 (269 showings) $146,823
 

Normally would mean $7.6-7.8M but Fast films could theoretically over-index & under-index here, given high Hispanic pop & low Black pop.

 

So normal will do I guess.

[John Marston]

37 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

On Flash I expect it to have the biggest OW this summer. Hype is definitely there. Keaton nostalgia for the win. We will know this Tuesday. But its also one that could swing many ways. 

 

Edit: @Shawn has confirmed what I thought. Anyway its going to be an interesting June for sure. Elemental has to have the lowest OW prediction from BO.com. Last year they went high on lightyear. Onward also had 50-70m initial prediction. Of course Onward released at the time COVID just became a serious issue and so it could not realize its potential beyond its control. 

 

 

 

can’t see why Flash would put open GOTG3

[Shawn Robbins]

14 hours ago, filmlover said:

tbh Transformers seems like the most review-dependent out of all these aspiring blockbusters over the next month. Decent reviews: a $40M+ opening should be easy to clear. Mediocre or worse reviews: yeah, total flop incoming.

And to your point, a close industry friend of mine said a very recent screening didn't impress. Very subjective, though, so take that for what its worth. I was bearish on the movie even before they passed along that nugget.

 

(Same person had good things to say about The Flash, though.)

[Shawn Robbins]

39 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

On Flash I expect it to have the biggest OW this summer. Hype is definitely there. Keaton nostalgia for the win. We will know this Tuesday. But its also one that could swing many ways. 

 

Edit: @Shawn has confirmed what I thought. Anyway its going to be an interesting June for sure. Elemental has to have the lowest OW prediction from BO.com. Last year they went high on lightyear. Onward also had 50-70m initial prediction. Of course Onward released at the time COVID just became a serious issue and so it could not realize its potential beyond its control. 

I misread Lightyear by a mile by a lightyear, for sure.

 

Couldn't resist.

[Legion Again]

BA exceeded the geomean of the initial BOP forecast by almost 10%, but Shz2, Batman, TSS, and HQ:BOP missed by 15-45% missing the low end in all cases. Maybe this will blow up in my face in a few days with sales but for now still seeing under 100M

[TheFlatLannister]

The flash projections are not shocking to me. I’m expecting something well over $100M. Nostalgia sells 

[Krissykins]

Very promising for The Little Mermaid and The Flash. 
 

The Boogeyman looks great, but I’m not sensing a high grosser, maybe because marketing hasn’t really started at all here. 
 

The Blackening I wouldn’t be surprised with low to mid single digits opening unfortunately. Horror comedy is most often a tough sell. 

[Issac Newton]

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 5/19/23)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	4-Day (FSSM) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
5/26/2023	About My Father	$3,000,000 – $6,000,000	$3,750,000 – $7,600,000	-25%	$7,500,000 – $19,000,000	-25%	Lionsgate
5/26/2023	Kandahar	$4,000,000 – $8,500,000	$5,000,000 – $11,000,000	-9%	$11,200,000 – $26,400,000	-9%	Open Road Films
5/26/2023	The Little Mermaid (2023)	$90,000,000 – $112,000,000	$115,000,000 – $143,000,000	+21%	$271,000,000 – $379,000,000	+18%	Walt Disney Pictures
5/26/2023	The Machine						Sony Pictures / Legendary Pictures
5/26/2023	You Hurt My Feelings						A24
5/27/2023	Oggy and the Cockroaches: The Movie						Seven Minds Family Films
6/2/2023	The Boogeyman	$19,000,000 – $26,000,000			$61,000,000 – $102,000,000		Disney / 20th Century Studios
6/2/2023	Past Lives (Platform)						A24
6/2/2023	Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse	$85,000,000 – $105,000,000			$226,000,000 – $290,000,000	-5%	Sony / Columbia Pictures
6/9/2023	Transformers: Rise of the Beasts	$35,000,000 – $45,000,000		+17%	$71,200,000 – $101,250,000	+17%	Paramount Pictures
6/16/2023	Asteroid City (Limited)						Focus Features
6/16/2023	The Blackening	$13,000,000 – $18,000,000			$32,500,000 – $58,800,000		Lionsgate
6/16/2023	Elemental	$28,000,000 – $38,000,000			$89,000,000 – $155,000,000		Disney / Pixar
6/16/2023	The Flash	$115,000,000 – $140,000,000			$280,000,000 – $375,000,000		Warner Bros. Pictures

[JayPrimetown]

23 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Very promising for The Little Mermaid and The Flash. 
 

The Boogeyman looks great, but I’m not sensing a high grosser, maybe because marketing hasn’t really started at all here. 
 

The Blackening I wouldn’t be surprised with low to mid single digits opening unfortunately. Horror comedy is most often a tough sell. 

The Blackening is an AA focused film coming out Juneteenth Weekend. It's scheduling on that key weekend is why you are seeing that projection. 

 

As for The Boogeyman, horror continues to over deliver. There's been some separation from all of those horror films that came out in late March and April to when Boogeyman premieres, so there should be some pent up interest again from horror film fans to return to theaters.

[thajdikt]

The Flash first day sales next week will be hugeee. I won´t be surprised if that range from Shawn goes even higher in a 2-3 weeks.

[GOGODanca]

Are middle aged people who grew up on keaton really gonna buy tickets the moment they go on sale? Especially for a movie where he's just a support 

[Ohana]

6 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

Are middle aged people who grew up on keaton really gonna buy tickets the moment they go on sale? Especially for a movie where he's just a support 

Their kids will do that for them and he's in 50% of the movie.

[keysersoze123]

Interesting thing is Deadline is calling out absence of late night talk shows(due to WGA strike) had some impact on Fast X box office. Question is should that be a consideration for releases until the strike is resolved and shows resume. These shows help in providing free publicity. May be that is why Flash is having so many early shows. They are relying on WOM to pull in the audience. 

 

I will see how final week goes for TLM and Spiderverse to see if there is a pattern. 

[TigerPaw]

13 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

Are middle aged people who grew up on keaton really gonna buy tickets the moment they go on sale? Especially for a movie where he's just a support 

His role is huge; at least that is what the marketing suggests.

 

Everyone around me is hyped.. I think this one might do really well if the quality is as good as what they say.

 

There was a screening in Taiwan last week, many reviewers there are saying it is even better than GOTG3..

[keysersoze123]

20 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

Are middle aged people who grew up on keaton really gonna buy tickets the moment they go on sale? Especially for a movie where he's just a support 

its not just keaton. It has Batfleck and Flashpoint is one of the most popular story as well. Its easy sell as any we have seen from DC. I dont see Ezra factor impacting it enough to prevent it from it being an event. Anyway we will know on Tuesday for sure. 

[charlie Jatinder]

38 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Interesting thing is Deadline is calling out absence of late night talk shows(due to WGA strike) had some impact on Fast X box office. Question is should that be a consideration for releases until the strike is resolved and shows resume. These shows help in providing free publicity. May be that is why Flash is having so many early shows. They are relying on WOM to pull in the audience. 

 

I will see how final week goes for TLM and Spiderverse to see if there is a pattern. 

Eh. I don’t think that really matter. Its been known that FX will open in 55-65 since before strike begin.

[Eric Furiosa]

41 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Interesting thing is Deadline is calling out absence of late night talk shows(due to WGA strike) had some impact on Fast X box office. Question is should that be a consideration for releases until the strike is resolved and shows resume. These shows help in providing free publicity. May be that is why Flash is having so many early shows. They are relying on WOM to pull in the audience. 

 

I will see how final week goes for TLM and Spiderverse to see if there is a pattern. 

Doesn't hurt big movies that much thanks to built-in audiences already excited, but it certainly can help even in minor ways. It's also really needed for the small movies. Like without the strike, Jennifer Lawrence would have been scheduled for all the talk shows to hype up that No Hard Feelings comedy movie. Now there's nothing to get people aware.

[Eric Furiosa]

On 5/18/2023 at 12:52 PM, Eric Toretto said:

The Little Mermaid Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	153	2117	28586	7.41%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 113

 

Comp - T-8

2.916x of Sonic 2 (18.22M)

0.993x of Jurassic World 3 (17.87M)

2.291x of Black Adam (17.41M)

0.851x of Avatar 2 (14.47M)

0.860x of Mario (27.26M)

The Little Mermaid Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	153	2310	28586	8.08%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 193

 

Comp - T-7

2.880x of Sonic 2 (18M)

1.033x of Jurassic World 3 (18.59M)

2.238x of Black Adam (17.01M)

0.855x of Avatar 2 (14.53M)

0.870x of Mario (27.58M)

[keysersoze123]

24 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Eh. I don’t think that really matter. Its been known that FX will open in 55-65 since before strike begin.

Its all conjecture at this point. That said its not my opinion. This is from some industry marketing firm. 

 

Anyway I am with @Eric Toretto on it impacting smaller movies more than blockbusters. 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

22 minutes ago, Eric Toretto said:

Doesn't hurt big movies that much thanks to built-in audiences already excited, but it certainly can help even in minor ways. It's also really needed for the small movies. Like without the strike, Jennifer Lawrence would have been scheduled for all the talk shows to hype up that No Hard Feelings comedy movie. Now there's nothing to get people aware.

Could these chat shows not work without writers? Like can’t they be unscripted?