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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

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Posted by Shawn Robbins,

PSA:   As a heads up to everyone, we'll be starting a new thread here very soon. For those who are newer to the forum, we typically have to split threads once they reach 1,000+ pages and are still highly active. In the past, such topics have created database slowdown issues that affect the entire forum.   Rest assured, this thread will be archived when it is locked and a link to the new one will be posted to help you find it easily (it will also be pinned to the top of the box o
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Posted by XXRDJisDoctorDoom,

Yea we're gonna drop all this non tracking stuff. That expressly means you, @excel1. Next post from you that isn't tracking related is a thread ban.    Anyone else continues, it's points. 

We're all tired of the non-tracking related thread derailments. This is your fair warning.

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screambaby Sleeper Hit

screambaby

Posted
Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, Legions of the Galaxy said:

I agree with screambaby/Jat(/Porthos really) that miracle changes don’t tend to happen after first day or two (though one way to have what seems like a miracle change is by misreading first day overly pessimistically). But I also agree with Porthos/Eric that it’s crazy to be condemning the whole rest of the year when we don’t have presales for a single 2H movie yet and the defining trait of a positive surprise is not seeing it in advance. 
 

Besides which TLM and SV2 are both poised with a solid chance of DOM totals that would place them as stronger than scream/ear/cocaine imo…

 

 

I mean in terms of expectations not total gross. The only thing that cocaine bear outpaced that it shouldn't  have  was shaazam 2 (domestic) 

 

I doubt anyone saw scream 6 doing 169 WW with no neve and morons ruining the ending 3 weeks in advance. EDR was tracking bad right till the last few days

 

And yes plenty of  these movies can rebound....though I'm not sold at all  transformers or indy

Edited by screambaby
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AMC Theaters Enjoyer Box Office Gold

AMC Theaters Enjoyer

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Legions of the Galaxy said:

I think all of July will disappoint personally.    
 

But there are like 36 medium/big releases remaining this year. At least one of them will probably have a 2 sigma performance. Maybe more. Take a lot of shots, a few will get unusually lucky, that’s how the world operates


All of July? I can see Haunted Mansion, Insidious and Joy Ride underwhelming or bombing but Mission: Impossible has gotten more popular with the last few installments, and Nolan is one of the few name directors that should help Oppenheimer. Even Barbie, which I’m not as hot on as others, should do good unless it’s as divisive as i think it could be. 
 

I’m with you on the second point though. I’ve made it no secret that I’m feeling good about Dune’s potential, Aquaman can do really well depending on its quality (esp after Guardians and Fast’s performances in China). Even The Creator I think has a shot of breaking out.

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Starphanluke Indie Sensation

Starphanluke

Posted
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19 minutes ago, Rocketracoon said:

How does the Transfromers pre-sale tracking look?

Not big enough to be exciting, or weak enough to be interesting. It's just doing as expected, maybe a little under. 

 

Current comps point towards something in the $5-6m preview range, $40-50m opening weekend. Ish. Definitely doesn't seem like it'll hit the lofty $68m that Deadline and Hollywood Reporter touted earlier this week.

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Cooper Legion Global Phenomenon

Cooper Legion

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6 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

Uhm sweaty you’re gonna have to unpack why you have something against the girl movie cause she ate and left no crumbs

I don’t have anything against it, I just think everyone has lost their mind 😘

 

90 would be a fine result for that kind of movie

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cooldude97 Sleeper Hit

cooldude97

Posted
Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, Rocketracoon said:

How does the Transfromers pre-sale tracking look?

"Put mad max fury road mediocre gif here"

If lucky could end up with bumblebee dom numbers by the end of its run, but it's all up to international numbers at this point to save it

Edited by cooldude97
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GOGODanca Box Office Gold

GOGODanca

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Eduardo said:

The movie have just 6-8 hours of sale and is almost selling better than any other movie this year at least, and  there is some hatters saying the movie don't pass 100M  OW. Please stfo and enjoy an event  

 

i mean compared to the 2 marvel movies that released this year, its clearly not close this far out and mario was a late monster in a way that flash just can't match

Edited by GOGODanca
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cooldude97 Sleeper Hit

cooldude97

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Posted

even if pre-sales aren't showing $100M+ opening weekend so far, I'm still expecting around GOTG3 opening weekend for Flash just for how fan heavy I'm expecting it to be (although unless it's just as good as GOTG3 I'm definitely not expecting the same second weekend drop)

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TheFlatLannister Box Office Gold

TheFlatLannister

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53 minutes ago, dallas said:

Idk why people are predicting doom and gloom for Flash when tickets haven't even been on sale for 24hrs. 

1. Who pre-orders tickets on the first day pre-sales begin except hard-core fans?

2. I imagine most people would wait until the review embargo drops to spend money on tickets for a movie. 

3. The older folk who would show up for Keaton don't really order tickets online, let alone nearly a month early. 

CBM’s tend to follow a predictable pattern. Albeit, the Flash has a shorter window so things might get wonky 

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PenguinHyphy Indie Sensation

PenguinHyphy

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2 hours ago, cooldude97 said:

How funny would it be after so many months of hyping up indy 5 or flash as the top gun maverick of summer 2023 they both just end up doing only fine, and TLM and spider-verse were the ones to break out

 

Everyone who has sense has been saying that, though 

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Eduardo Straight-to-DVD

Eduardo

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24 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

i mean compared to the 2 marvel movies that released this year, its clearly not close this far out and mario was a late monster in a way that flash just can't match

Is selling better than both marvels movies at least in miami

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lorddemaxus Global Phenomenon

lorddemaxus

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37 minutes ago, Legions of the Galaxy said:

I don’t have anything against it, I just think everyone has lost their mind 😘

 

90 would be a fine result for that kind of movie

Eh, I feel like you've overcorrected because of the overpredictions lol

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