The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Across the Spider-Verse Alamo Drafthouse

T-9 Thursday

152 Showings

5260

+247

22875

ATP:

15.97

0.471	Ant-Man 3 T-9	8.24M
0.402	Thor L&T T-9	11.66M
0.543	Batman Thurs only T-9	9.56M
1.028	Eternals  T-9	9.76M

 

T-10 Friday

177 Showings

4845

+287

28666

ATP:

16.07

0.482	Ant-Man 3 T-10	13.94M
0.438	Thor L&T T-10	17.76M
0.494	Batman T-10	17.32M
1.046	Eternals  T-10	22.32M

 

T-11 Saturday 169 Showings 4714 +164 27641

0.459	Ant-Man 3 T-11	15.56M
0.452	Thor L&T T-11	19.02M
0.490	Batman T-11	21.21M
1.003	Eternals  T-11	24.20M

 

T-12 Sunday 153 Showings 2882 +146 24962

0.586	Ant-Man 3 T-12	15.10M
0.498	Thor L&T T-12	16.20M
0.684	Batman T-12	23.36M
1.050	Eternals T-12	17.15M

Across the Spider-Verse Alamo Drafthouse

T-8 Thursday

154 Showings

5585

+325

23460

ATP:

15.92

0.484	Ant-Man 3 T-8	8.47M
0.413	Thor L&T T-8	11.98M

1.050

Eternals  T-8

9.97M

 

T-9 Friday

180 Showings

5208

+363

29390

ATP:

15.93

0.496	Ant-Man 3 T-9	14.36M
0.453	Thor L&T T-9	18.39M

1.077

Eternals  T-9

22.98M

 

T-10 Saturday

173 Showings

5013

+299

28500

0.469	Ant-Man 3 T-10	15.91M
0.461	Thor L&T T-10	19.43M

1.024

Eternals  T-10

24.71M

 

T-11 Sunday

156 Showings

3139

+257

25682

0.606	Ant-Man 3 T-11	15.62M
0.519	Thor L&T T-11	16.86M

1.096

Eternals T-11

17.90M

[Inceptionzq]

6 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Flash Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

151

2188

6.90%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

78

1179

6.62%

 

Monday: 168(+19)

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 17 HOURS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
491	170	20180	2.43%	13	106

 

0.471x Guardians 3 Day 2 (8.25M)

0.389x Ant-Man 3 24 hours (6.81M)

2.65x Black Adam 24 hours (20.11M)

0.213x Thor L&T 24.5 hours (6.18M)

0.291x Batman 24 hours (6.29M)

0.848x Eternals Day 2 (8.06M)

0.835x Black Widow Day 2 (11.03M)

 

Looks like the trailer during the NBA game yesterday helped. I wonder if Denver will see a better boost compared to other non Florida and New England markets though since they have a reason to be paying more attention. Note that only the Thursday numbers are 24 hours of sales, the Monday numbers are 48 hours of sales.

The Flash Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

151

1890

7.99%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

82

1179

6.96%

 

Monday: 173(+5)

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 6 HOURS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
509	18	19882	2.56%	13	106

 

0.488x Guardians 3 Day 2 (8.54M)

0.356x Ant-Man 3 Day 2 (6.23M)

2.24x Black Adam Day 2 (17.05M)

0.212x Thor L&T Day 2 (6.15M)

0.255x Batman Day 2 (5.52M)

0.878x Eternals Day 2 (8.34M)

0.864x Black Widow Day 2 (11.41M)

[M37]

1 minute ago, Menor Reborn said:

Those flaws exist, but ultimately we have to work with the comp base we have. I think any 2022 CBM except Black Adam is way too big to comp to Flash, and Black Adam is too small (and has the same unknown character issue as Shang-Chi, plus imo had the Rock boosting casual/late buys). BW is in the right ballpark in terms of size and seasonality, and played relatively backloaded compared to the Marvel biggies but not as much as the SC/BA set (Eternals is its own level of weird in terms of its presale run, and its terrible reception probably makes it a poor comp given Flash is expected to have good reception). I think it has enough going for it to be worth including.  

I know this is a significant divergence of opinion between trackers, but I just fundamentally believe, when focusing on growth rate patterns rather than raw sales figures, that volume of sales is largely irrelevant. I mean, Scream VI has proven to be a fairly accurate comp for Little Mermaid's pace the last two weeks, despite being half the size and a totally different genre, no? Didn't pull that out of thin air

 

Now that method requires enough daily data points free from (or at least just adjusted for) noise to be able to find the level and start to project forward, so probably isn't as fun having to be patient and not extrapolating directly from OD sales, but ... it works

 

This thread had gotten pretty off the rails already, don't want to bog it down even more with less direct tracking discussion, so if you (or anyone else) want to continue this convo, feel free to PM me

[Bob Train]

32 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

So this year is kind of like 2014 where there aren't a lot of strong openers. Though at least we had Mario this year.

It's reasonable to assume Mario would have had a 170-180 million OW had it been a normal opener and not a 5-day

[Inceptionzq]

6 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Flash Alamo Drafthouse

T-22 Thursday

117 Showings

1391

+374

19281

ATP:

15.94

0.249	Guardians Day 2	4.36M
0.238	Ant-Man 3 24 hours	4.17M
2.208	Black Adam first 23 hours	16.78M
0.168	Thor L&T first 24 hours	4.88M
0.238	The Batman first 24 hours	4.19M

 

T-23 Friday

155 Showings

789

+269

26123

ATP:

16.30

0.221	Guardians Day 2	6.75M
0.215	Ant-Man 3 24 hours	6.22M
1.730	Black Adam first 23 hours	33.03M
0.141	Thor L&T first 24 hours	5.70M
0.152	The Batman first 24 hours	5.33M

 

T-24 Saturday

149 Showings

682

+264

24666

ATP:

15.16

0.174	Guardians Day 2	6.77M
0.204	Ant-Man 3 24 hours	6.91M
1.473	Black Adam first 23 hours	34.92M
0.142	Thor L&T first 24 hours	5.99M
0.168	The Batman first 24 hours	7.27M

 

T-25 Sunday

134 Showings

269

+100

22715

ATP:

14.69

0.159	Guardians Day 2	4.99M
0.247	Ant-Man 3 24 hours	6.37M
2.023	Black Adam first 23 hours	33.58M
0.114	Thor L&T first 24 hours	3.72M
0.182	The Batman first 24 hours	6.22M

The Flash Alamo Drafthouse [+6 hours of sales]

T-22 Thursday

117 Showings

1453

+62

19281

ATP:

15.93

0.260	Guardians Day 2	4.55M
0.219	Ant-Man 3 Day 2	3.83M
1.887	Black Adam Day 2	14.34M
0.169	Thor L&T Day 2	4.89M
0.224	The Batman Day 2	3.93M

 

T-23 Friday

155 Showings

838

+49

26123

ATP:

16.26

0.234	Guardians Day 2	7.17M
0.190	Ant-Man 3 Day 2	5.50M
1.483	Black Adam Day 2	28.31M
0.140	Thor L&T Day 2	5.70M
0.138	The Batman Day 2	4.85M

 

T-24 Saturday

149 Showings

728

+46

24666

ATP:

15.21

0.186	Guardians Day 2	7.23M
0.169	Ant-Man 3 Day 2	5.72M
1.217	Black Adam Day 2	28.86M
0.141	Thor L&T Day 2	5.93M
0.147	The Batman Day 2	6.36M

 

T-25 Sunday

134 Showings

289

+20

22715

ATP:

14.50

0.171	Guardians Day 2	5.37M
0.187	Ant-Man 3 Day 2	4.82M
1.671	Black Adam Day 2	27.74M
0.115	Thor L&T Day 2	3.75M
0.154	The Batman Day 2	5.27M

[JayPrimetown]

T -1 Ticket Sales - The Machine (May 25, 2023)
Theater Name	Showtime	Tickets Sold	Total Seats	% Sold
GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ	730 PM	5	216	2.31%
GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ	900 PM	20	217	9.22%
GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ	1100 PM	3	216	1.39%
Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL	710 PM	2	95	2.11%
Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL	900 PM	4	81	4.94%
Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL	1000 PM	0	95	0.00%
Marina 12 Long Beach, CA	600 PM	28	74	37.84%
Marina 12 Long Beach, CA	800 PM	19	58	32.76%
Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA	1000 PM	18	50	36.00%
River East 21 - Chicago, IL	800 PM	29	221	13.12%
River East 21 - Chicago, IL	1020 PM	0	111	0.00%
Katy Mills - Katy, TX	700 PM	4	77	5.19%
Katy Mills - Katy, TX	945 PM	3	77	3.90%
GSP 16 - Paramus, NJ		28	649	4.31%
Aventura 24 - Aventura, FL		6	271	2.21%
Marina 12 Long Beach, CA		47	132	35.61%
Phipps 14 - Atlanta, GA		18	50	36.00%
River East 21 - Chicago, IL		29	332	8.73%
Katy Mills - Katy, TX		7	154	4.55%
Total Sold		135	1588	8.50%

 

 

Last but not least is The Machine. The adult comedy starring comedian Bert Kreischer. The comedian is doing a live comedy set that is being broadcast as part of a screening at a few of the theaters I track. Ticket sales for that event look decent and will certainly factor into what could be a decent preview number that should exceed $500K.

 

Comps:

Renfield 152 tickets ($900K Preview / $8 MIl OW)

Sisu 114 tickets ($585K Preview / $3.3 Mill OW) 

 

I'm thinking this does around $700K in previews, but one has to wonder what legs this will have. If the film is good and has good WOM could be a nice little surprise. I have my doubts, but we saw Cocaine Bear well exceed expectations earlier this year, so there's certainly an appetite and an audience for this type of comedy. Curious to see how No Hard Feelings and Strays do later this summer as R comedies. Would be nice if this genre starts to see success again in the theaters where distributors see an opportunity.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

83

2338

3.55%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

112

1365

8.21%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
365	59	20932	1.74%	13	104

 

0.316x Avatar 2 Day 2 (5.38M)

0.480x JW Dominion Day 2 (8.64M)

1.32x Ghostbusters Day 2 (5.95M)

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

86

2338

3.68%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

117

1365

8.57%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
385	20	20932	1.84%	13	104

 

0.284x Avatar 2 Day 3 (4.83M)

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Alamo Drafthouse

T-37 Thursday

107 Showings

2281

+373

16615

ATP:

15.76

1.27	Avatar 2 Day 2	21.65M
1.20	JW Dominion Day 2	21.52M
1.70	Ghostbusters Day 2	7.63M

 

T-38 Friday

154 Showings

1827

+464

25089

ATP:

15.41

0.86	Avatar 2 Day 2	31.26M
1.43	JW Dominion Day 2	59.50M
1.84	Ghostbusters Day 2	22.35M

 

T-39 Saturday

155 Showings

1545

+445

25354

ATP:

14.93

0.67	Avatar 2 Day 2	29.70M
1.27	JW Dominion Day 2	59.77M

 

T-40 Sunday

141 Showings

670

+179

23387

ATP:

14.42

0.65	Avatar 2 Day 2	23.65M
1.53	JW Dominion Day 2	59.05M

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Alamo Drafthouse

T-36 Thursday

112 Showings

2575

+294

18367

ATP:

15.79

1.23

Avatar 2 Day 3

20.87M

 

T-37 Friday

157 Showings

2035

+208

26292

ATP:

15.45

0.83

Avatar 2 Day 3

29.99M

 

T-38 Saturday

158 Showings

1781

+236

26681

ATP:

14.85

0.64

Avatar 2 Day 3

28.37M

 

T-39 Sunday

143 Showings

804

+134

24390

ATP:

14.46

0.62

Avatar 2 Day 3

22.58M

[Tinalera]

Spiderverse 2

Thurs June 1 Fri June 2 (t-8)

Toronto and Montreal Canada

 

 

Toronto	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	4	24	754	6135	6889	0.1094
Fri	4	32	650	8990	9640	0.0674
Montreal	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	4	13	461	3091	3552	0.1297
Fri	3	11	434	2731	3165	0.1371

 

GOTG 3 (T-8)

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Toronto	Thurs	3	40	1299	7146	8488	0.1530
	Fri	4	49	959	9514	10473	0.0915
Montrea		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
	Thurs	3	33	882	7909	8791	0.1003
	Fri	3	23	550	6202	6752	0.0814

 

 

Total Available seating

 

	T T	T F	M T	M F
Spidey 2	6889	9640	3552	3165
GOTG 3	8488	10473	8791	6752
diff	-1599	-833	-5239	-3587

 

 

EDIT this has been edited to change what duplicate data Spidey now has correct numbers

Edited May 25, 2023 by Tinalera
Duplicate information needed to be corrected for Spidey 2

[Starphanluke]

Vague updates from a pretty big city in the midwest because I'm not a legit tracker. 

 

The Little Mermaid is looking pretty good. Strong through the whole weekend, not just previews (which is expected, as a family movie).

 

Across the Spider-Verse, to my eye, looks to be around what like Ant-Man 3 looked like a couple months ago. Not an exact science, but I'm legitimately shocked how well it has sold. Skews heavily to Thursday, though, so I guess this one will have a bigger fan rush than the first movie. The growth from the first movie is going to be really impressive. 

 

Transformers is below both, obviously, but still trucking along. It has picked up some steam on Friday since the last time I checked. Fan screening on that Wednesday looks strong... well over halfway sold out. I'm impressed by it steadily moving more tickets, even as there are like 5 other major movies on sale. Still feel like it will be buried. 

 

I'll check Flash and Indy later lmao.

[keysersoze123]

38 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Spiderverse 2

Thurs June 1 Fri June 2 (t-8)

Toronto and Montreal Canada

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Toronto	Thurs	3	40	1299	7146	8488	0.1530
	Fri	4	49	959	9514	10473	0.0915
Montrea		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
	Thurs	3	33	882	7909	8791	0.1003
	Fri	3	23	550	6202	6752	0.0814

 

GOTG 3 (T-8)

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Toronto	Thurs	3	40	1299	7146	8488	0.1530
	Fri	4	49	959	9514	10473	0.0915
Montrea		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
	Thurs	3	33	882	7909	8791	0.1003
	Fri	3	23	550	6202	6752	0.0814

 

 

Total Available seating

 

	T T	T F	M T	M F
Spidey 2	6889	9640	3552	3165
GOTG 3	8488	10473	8791	6752
diff	-1599	-833	-5239	-3587

Can you confirm the numbers. Both Spiderverse and Guardians have sold exactly the same number of seats at the both cities for both days. That would be weird :-)

[Porthos]

 

(the fact that it is Wednesday makes it even better 👍)

 

[filmlover]

I truly feel for all you tracking folks lol.

 

At least things will start to cool down for a bit starting in about a month due to the heavy-hitters drying up until November (with tickets for those movies going on sale in October).

[druv10]

I wanted to take a min and thank all of the trackers. They don't get paid to do this and I can't even imagine amount of time being spent on it and over the top vitriol to boot, if a movie underperforms expectations. Thanks, guys! Keep up the great work!!!

Edited May 25, 2023 by druv10

[charlie Jatinder]

3 hours ago, Shawn said:

that all of the appropriate comps being used for the movie so far were films that faced significantly less market-crowding. There are literally two other fan-driven movies opening before Flash and whose tickets have been on sale already, with another film (Indy) having a similar audience crossover and going on sale the day before.

this.

if not for this, I have a very clear idea of what it is going for OW. the tension is high in the thread, so I won't be saying that number but let's see if the market crowding factor changes anything.

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, Shawn said:

The samples I have access to at the moment are spitting out these super-duper-uber preliminary Flash previews in my models:

 

Black Adam (Thu vs. Thu only for Flash): $9.52M

Black Adam (Thu vs. all previews for Flash): $15.63M

yikes. either your sample over-indexed for BA or Flash is just awful there because BA comp should be at least in the high teens.

that said Black Adam isn't good direct comp for this.

edit: sorry, apologies. I just woke up & read the two numbers as THU & FRI. though THU vs all  previews for Flash in most other places is around $20M.

Edited May 25, 2023 by charlie Jatinder

[cooldude97]

i also feel like people are forgetting that a new Pixar movie is dropping on the same weekend, which despite their fall in popularity in recent years will probably put a dent in Flash's screen count and PLF

[charlie Jatinder]

3 hours ago, Porthos said:

ATP differences makes comping.... annoying

So I was thinking yesterday that when exactly did atp started to increase. Was seeing BW numbers yesterday & atp for them is significantly lower. BW alpha had just $13.6 atp vs $16.25 for GOTG3, which is a big difference but then eternals was $15.9.

here the difference of sales volume making a difference too. will probably look at more numbers.

[Tinalera]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Can you confirm the numbers. Both Spiderverse and Guardians have sold exactly the same number of seats at the both cities for both days. That would be weird 🙂

Right may have duplicated it again.....let me check lol

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

So I was thinking yesterday that when exactly did atp started to increase.

 

Started to roll out at one or two local Cinemarks with Eternals, picked up steam with GBA and was full blown in action the week before NWH.  Again locally/

 

It was after NWH when The Batman bowed when the press got wind of the "variable pricing" scheme/idea so it was still pretty gradual.  More of a rolling wave from, basically, GBA through Bats.

Edited May 25, 2023 by Porthos