The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Porthos]

On 6/9/2023 at 2:51 AM, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Elemental Sacto Report  [T-7]

306/9492 (3.22% sold) [+31 tickets]

0.41576x GBA            at T-7     [1.87m]

0.33479x Sonic 2      at T-7     [2.09m]

0.36957x Minions 2  at T-7      [3.97m]

0.49918x Nope         at T-7      [3.19m]

0.61200x Shazam 2  at T-7.     [2.08m]

 

 

 

Quick and Dirty Elemental Sacto Report  [T-6]

349/9492 (3.68% sold) [+43 tickets]

0.43734x GBA            at T-6     [1.97m]

0.33429x Sonic 2      at T-6     [2.09m]

0.34317x Minions 2  at T-6      [3.69m]

0.51248x Nope         at T-6      [3.28m]

0.65478x Shazam 2  at T-6     [2.23m]

 

[Porthos]

On 6/9/2023 at 2:52 AM, Porthos said:

 

 

Not quite ready to comp against anything as JWD was on its first day of sales and I don't know if Fast X is all that useful, but for an update....

 

Oppenheimer Sacto Report [T-42]

443/7574 [5.85% sold] [+55 tickets] [+35 PLF | +20 Stand] [50 showings]

 

The interesting thing is...  A couple of days ago, Century Arden inexplicably yanked its PLF showings, which had sold 42 tickets at the first showing (and none at the second).  Thought it might be an error, but when regular showtimes came back, it didn't reappear so no idea what's going on over there.  At the moment I am no longer counting them, but if they ever come back with those tickets sold, I'll back date it on my record keeping.

 

Aside from that, still selling very well for an adult-skewed historical drama one week into pre-sales and still six weeks away.  Do figure any announcement made probably helped in the aggregate, but it was still a PLF heavy day.

 

(for those curious, the 70mm print showings over at Esquire IMAX are finally slowing down a bit as they sold 10 tickets between their two showtimes)

 

Oppenheimer Sacto Report [T-41]

476/7574 [6.28% sold] [+33 tickets] [+23 PLF | +10 Stand] [50 showings]

Edited June 11, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

On 6/9/2023 at 2:53 AM, Porthos said:

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-21 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	124	18589	19521	932	4.77%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

37

 

T-21 Comps:

	%		Sold T-21	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	49.57		71	1880		0/184	22927/24807	7.58%		10966	8.50%		8.92m
FX	118.73		5	785		0/182	26937/27722	2.83%		8363	11.14%		8.90m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Indy 5's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:     177/6084  [2.91% sold]
Matinee:    55/1728  [3.18% | 5.90% of all tickets sold]

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-20 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	124	18546	19521	975	4.99%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

43

 

T-20 Comps:

	%		Sold T-20	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	49.22		101	1981		0/184	22826/24807	7.99%		10966	8.89%		8.86m
FX	121.88		15	800		0/182	26910/27710	2.89%		8363	11.66%		9.14m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Indy 5's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:     185/6084  [3.04% sold]
Matinee:    59/1728  [3.41% | 6.05% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

On 6/9/2023 at 2:54 AM, Porthos said:

 

The Flash Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	178	23414	25148	1734	6.90%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

74

 

T-7 Comps:

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats	33.46		206	5182		0/297	31608/36790	14.09%		11757	14.75%		7.23m
BA	124.12		123	1397		0/152	21562/22959	6.08%		4494	38.58%		9.43m
Shazam 2	346.80		16	500		0/107	16507/17007	2.94%		1663	104.27%		11.79m
Wick 4	99.43		161	1744		0/113	13827/15571	11.20%		5448	31.83%		8.85m
AtSV	57.25		263	3029		0/140	19113/22142	13.68%		9744	17.80%		9.93m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Flash's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     281/5286  [5.32% sold]
Matinee:    37/2140  [1.73% | 2.13% of all tickets sold]

 

The Flash Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	178	23257	25145	1888	7.51%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

154

 

T-6 Comps:

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats	34.95		220	5402		0/297	31388/36790	14.68%		11757	16.06%		7.55m
BA	124.13		124	1521		0/163	22454/23975	6.34%		4494	42.01%		9.43m
Shazam 2	354.22		33	533		0/107	16477/17010	3.13%		1663	113.53%		12.04m
Wick 4	99.47		154	1898		0/113	13673/15571	12.19%		5448	34.65%		8.85m
AtSV	57.30		266	3295		0/142	19179/22474	14.66%		9744	19.38%		9.94m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Flash's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     327/5286  [6.19% sold]
Matinee:    46/2140  [2.15% | 2.44% of all tickets sold]

[Mulder]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

The Flash Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	178	23257	25145	1888	7.51%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

154

 

T-6 Comps:

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats	34.95		220	5402		0/297	31388/36790	14.68%		11757	16.06%		7.55m
BA	124.13		124	1521		0/163	22454/23975	6.34%		4494	42.01%		9.43m
Shazam 2	354.22		33	533		0/107	16477/17010	3.13%		1663	113.53%		12.04m
Wick 4	99.47		154	1898		0/113	13673/15571	12.19%		5448	34.65%		8.85m
AtSV	57.30		266	3295		0/142	19179/22474	14.66%		9744	19.38%		9.94m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Flash's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     327/5286  [6.19% sold]
Matinee:    46/2140  [2.15% | 2.44% of all tickets sold]

Going to guess that Shazam 2 being the only comp to go up isn't great.

[vafrow]

4 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Going to guess that Shazam 2 being the only comp to go up isn't great.

Batman went up as well and things stayed flat against some key comps. It's actually a pretty good update.

 

When you've been trending down, you need to stabilize before you start to rise. This feels like it could be that.

 

There certainly have been worse updates this week on Flash.

[Mulder]

3 minutes ago, vafrow said:

Batman went up as well and things stayed flat against some key comps. It's actually a pretty good update.

 

When you've been trending down, you need to stabilize before you start to rise. This feels like it could be that.

 

There certainly have been worse updates this week on Flash.

Fair, I missed the Batman uptick. 

[YSLDC]

17 minutes ago, vafrow said:

Batman went up as well and things stayed flat against some key comps. It's actually a pretty good update.

 

When you've been trending down, you need to stabilize before you start to rise. This feels like it could be that.

 

There certainly have been worse updates this week on Flash.

 

The comeback is on!

[Cooper Legion]

7 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Going to guess that Shazam 2 being the only comp to go up isn't great.

Still getting some sheets back end up to do this more conveniently for each region each day, but here’s the last few days for my “size-adjusted avg comp” for Sacto:

T-12 9.16M

T-11 9.28M

T-10 9.3M

T-9 9.55M

T-8 9.6M

T-7 9.4M

T-6 9.5M  

 

So today was basically fine under that view — in fact things have been pretty stable, which is the hope. 
 

Fwiw, without Shazam (the biggest size outlier):

T-12 9.61M

T-11 9.64M

T-10 9.58M

T-9 9.72M

T-8 9.71M

T-7 9.31M

T-6 9.3M

[M37]

46 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Going to guess that Shazam 2 being the only comp to go up isn't great.

Comps didn't go down though - they held mostly flat, which means (for this sample) Flash kept pace on Friday, after trending lower for previous few days, so that itself is an improvement. Sunday is the really the update to watch the most - that's usually where if there's going to be a shift, and increased pace in the final week, it first shows up

[Cooper Legion]

That eternal question of “good sign in the 2nd derivative” vs “but it’s still a bad first derivative moving average” 😛 

 

Fwiw I don’t really have a gut sense of which description is more accurate either.

[M37]

10 minutes ago, Into the Legion-Verse said:

That eternal question of “good sign in the 2nd derivative” vs “but it’s still a bad first derivative moving average” 😛 

 

Fwiw I don’t really have a gut sense of which description is more accurate either.

Fwiw, I think it’s far more important keep pace on T-7 than T-10/9/8

 

Like I wonder if WB/Flash lifting review embargo early but on a Tue in June, rather than on Fri like Disney/GOTG3, may have dampened effect, or maybe is just going to take a few days for it to filter down and create the desired effect among the audience for whom it could be a catalyst 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/9/2023 at 8:40 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Blackening	T-6	Jax	5	12	7	7	966	0.72%
		Phx	6	16	13	13	1,707	0.76%
		Ral	6	14	10	10	802	1.25%
	Total		17	42	30	30	3,475	0.86%
Blackening (EA)	T-5	Jax	4	4	44	44	357	12.32%
		Phx	3	3	58	58	210	27.62%
		Ral	6	6	20	20	655	3.05%
	Total		13	13	122	122	1,222	9.98%
Elemental	T-6	Jax	5	40	50	50	5,234	0.96%
		Phx	6	42	92	92	5,156	1.78%
		Ral	8	39	76	76	4,743	1.60%
	Total		19	121	218	218	15,133	1.44%
Flash	T-6	Jax	6	64	34	520	10,050	5.17%
		Phx	6	48	36	617	8,749	7.05%
		Ral	8	63	33	464	8,688	5.34%
	Total		20	175	103	1,601	27,487	5.82%

 

Flash T-6 comps

 - Shang-Chi - 1.232x (10.85m)

 - Shazam 2 - 3.09x (10.51m)

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 - F9 - 1.536x (10.91m)

 - Eternals - .725x (6.89m)

 - Black Adam - 1.34x (10.16m)

 

Looking like in the 10.5m to 11m range.

 

Blackening T-6 comps

 - Escape Room 2 - 1.034x (1.24m)

 - Men - 1.111x (470k)

 - Firestarter - .909x (341k)

 - Night House - 2.143x (557k)

 

Blackening + EA T-6 comps

 - Black Phone + EA - .641x (1.92m)

 - Smile + EA - .707x (1.41m)

 

Will have a boost for the holiday Monday.  EA is selling really well so maybe this one surprises?

 

Elemental T-6 comps

 - Lightyear - .443x (2.17m)

 - Strange World - 9.083x (7.27m) 

 - Encanto (Tues) - 2.659x (3.99m)

 - Paws of Fury - 5.45x (2.75m)

 

Pretty big range here but I'm currently thinking around 3m previews.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Blackening	T-5	Jax	5	12	2	9	966	0.93%
		Phx	6	16	5	18	1,707	1.05%
		Ral	6	14	-1	9	802	1.12%
	Total		17	42	6	36	3,475	1.04%
Blackening (EA)	T-4	Jax	4	4	21	65	357	18.21%
		Phx	3	3	13	71	210	33.81%
		Ral	6	6	9	29	655	4.43%
	Total		13	13	43	165	1,222	13.50%
Elemental	T-5	Jax	5	40	14	64	5,234	1.22%
		Phx	6	42	1	93	5,156	1.80%
		Ral	8	39	3	79	4,743	1.67%
	Total		19	121	18	236	15,133	1.56%
Flash	T-5	Jax	6	64	35	555	10,050	5.52%
		Phx	6	48	36	653	8,749	7.46%
		Ral	8	63	17	481	8,688	5.54%
	Total		20	175	88	1,689	27,487	6.14%

 

Flash T-5 comps

 - Shang-Chi - 1.174x (10.33m)

 - Shazam 2 - 3.08x (10.48m)

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 - F9 - 1.482x (10.52m)

 - Eternals - .734x (6.98m)

 - Black Adam - 1.31x (9.99m)

 - Morbius - 1.887x (10.76m)

 

Looking like in the 10m range.  3-day pace (+17%) is closest to Eternals (+16.3%) and Morbius (18.1%).  Well ahead of Shazam 2 (+11.1%) and behind the others.

 

Blackening T-5 comps

 - Escape Room 2 - 1.059x (1.27m)

 - Men - 1.059x (448k)

 - Firestarter - 1.091x (409k)

 - Night House - 2.4x (624k)

 

Blackening + EA T-5 comps

 - Black Phone + EA - .767x (2.3m)

 - Smile + EA - missed

 

Elemental T-5 comps

 - Lightyear - .438x (2.15m)

 - Strange World - 6.378x (5.1m) 

 - Encanto (Tues) - 2.17x (3.25m)

 - Paws of Fury - 5.9x (2.98m)

[WebSurfer]

Heh, really curious to see how next weekend goes for the new releases.

 

Elemental and The Flash.

 

How’s it looking for both?

[Cooper Legion]

1 hour ago, WebSurfer said:

Heh, really curious to see how next weekend goes for the new releases.

 

Elemental and The Flash.

 

How’s it looking for both?

Elemental is hard to say even being relatively close to release now since as a low hype original animation is has pretty low sales. But vaguely we are expecting 2.5-3.5ish previews and 10-14ish IM so say 30-42ish

 

Flash is looking like 9-11 and maybe 5.6-6.8 for say 56-68 (though some are expecting higher than that).   
 

Since people seem to like the grid, here’s my t-7 thoughts in grid form:

Legion Flash OW ForecastMatrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$8.85	$9.20	$9.55	$9.90	$10.25	$10.60	$10.95	$11.30	$11.65
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	5.4	$47.79	$49.68	$51.57	$53.46	$55.35	$57.24	$59.13	$61.02	$62.91
	5.6	$49.56	$51.52	$53.48	$55.44	$57.40	$59.36	$61.32	$63.28	$65.24
	5.8	$51.33	$53.36	$55.39	$57.42	$59.45	$61.48	$63.51	$65.54	$67.57
	6	$53.10	$55.20	$57.30	$59.40	$61.50	$63.60	$65.70	$67.80	$69.90
	6.2	$54.87	$57.04	$59.21	$61.38	$63.55	$65.72	$67.89	$70.06	$72.23
	6.4	$56.64	$58.88	$61.12	$63.36	$65.60	$67.84	$70.08	$72.32	$74.56
	6.6	$58.41	$60.72	$63.03	$65.34	$67.65	$69.96	$72.27	$74.58	$76.89
	6.8	$60.18	$62.56	$64.94	$67.32	$69.70	$72.08	$74.46	$76.84	$79.22
	7	$61.95	$64.40	$66.85	$69.30	$71.75	$74.20	$76.65	$79.10	$81.55

Edited June 10, 2023 by Into the Legion-Verse

[M37]

On 6/7/2023 at 8:23 AM, M37 said:

I really have a difficult time seeing Flash go below $10M for preview

 

Flash OW Forecast Matrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$9.0	$9.5	$10.0	$10.5	$11.0	$11.5	$12.0	$12.5	$13.0
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	6.25	$56.3	$59.4	$62.5	$65.6	$68.8	$71.9	$75.0	$78.1	$81.3
	6.41	$57.7	$60.9	$64.1	$67.3	$70.5	$73.7	$76.9	$80.1	$83.3
	6.56	$59.1	$62.3	$65.6	$68.9	$72.2	$75.5	$78.8	$82.0	$85.3
	6.72	$60.5	$63.8	$67.2	$70.5	$73.9	$77.3	$80.6	$84.0	$87.3
	6.88	$61.9	$65.3	$68.8	$72.2	$75.6	$79.1	$82.5	$85.9	$89.4
	7.03	$63.3	$66.8	$70.3	$73.8	$77.3	$80.9	$84.4	$87.9	$91.4
	7.19	$64.7	$68.3	$71.9	$75.5	$79.1	$82.7	$86.3	$89.8	$93.4
	7.34	$66.1	$69.8	$73.4	$77.1	$80.8	$84.5	$88.1	$91.8	$95.5
	7.50	$67.5	$71.3	$75.0	$78.8	$82.5	$86.3	$90.0	$93.8	$97.5

 

Last Alpha update was 60K sold, even with a weaker JWD path (which had BAD reviews) from there gets to ~200K final (an ATSV track would be more like 225K), and a typical DC lower PSM of like $50/tix would be $10M flat. And even if it were to fall slightly below that math, the handful of sold out fan screenings should be enough to make up the gap and get to double (technically 8 ) digits. Sliding all the way to $9.5M or below would require a very tepid finish relative to current pace that I'm not sure there's good cause to expect/project

 

Couple days later, not much has changed - if anything, there are reasons to be a bit pessimistic about the last week acceleration. I would not (yet) say the floor is dropping, but there are definitely some cracks that suggest it might

 

The average here is a bit overstated, being pulled up but a few high end outliers (Philly, plus Denver & Drafthouse vs BA) which have been steadily declining, so realistically more in the $10.5-$11M range than the $11.5M shown

 

 

Bigger question is about the IM. I maybe kinda sorta forgot to account for Father's Day and Juneteenth in looking at the IM in previous post? But Friday presales do not inspire a lot of confidence, way below the Thursday figures. Generally, DC films tend to be weekend audience friendly (see BA's 8.6x despite a weaker Sun vs Football), plus the double holiday effect on OW Sunday, but we're pretty much fully into summer now, so less of distinction between weekdays/weekends. By pure numbers, 6.5x or below seems plausible, but I personally don't think it will go quite that low

 

The weaker pace over the last week, despite review release, has me lowering the Thursday range a bit, while IM range nudged up a bit. Really should have a better sense of where things are headed by T-4. To keep pace with the BA et all pace grouping, looking for a +25% or so jump for AlphaMTC1, or over 85K sales

 

Flash OW Forecast Matrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$9.0	$9.4	$9.9	$10.3	$10.8	$11.2	$11.6	$12.1	$12.5
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	6.25	$56.3	$59.0	$61.7	$64.5	$67.2	$69.9	$72.7	$75.4	$78.1
	6.44	$57.9	$60.8	$63.6	$66.4	$69.2	$72.0	$74.8	$77.7	$80.5
	6.63	$59.6	$62.5	$65.4	$68.3	$71.2	$74.1	$77.0	$79.9	$82.8
	6.81	$61.3	$64.3	$67.3	$70.3	$73.2	$76.2	$79.2	$82.2	$85.2
	7.00	$63.0	$66.1	$69.1	$72.2	$75.3	$78.3	$81.4	$84.4	$87.5
	7.19	$64.7	$67.8	$71.0	$74.1	$77.3	$80.4	$83.6	$86.7	$89.8
	7.38	$66.4	$69.6	$72.8	$76.1	$79.3	$82.5	$85.7	$89.0	$92.2
	7.56	$68.1	$71.4	$74.7	$78.0	$81.3	$84.6	$87.9	$91.2	$94.5
	7.75	$69.8	$73.1	$76.5	$79.9	$83.3	$86.7	$90.1	$93.5	$96.9

 

Sticking with this range for both, though leaning more towards to the the lower ranges pending more data

Flash T-7 Forecast: $10-$12M preview, $65-$85M OW

[M37]

2 hours ago, Into the Legion-Verse said:

Since people seem to like the grid, here’s my t-7 thoughts in grid form:

Legion Flash OW ForecastMatrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$8.85	$9.20	$9.55	$9.90	$10.25	$10.60	$10.95	$11.30	$11.65
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	5.4	$47.79	$49.68	$51.57	$53.46	$55.35	$57.24	$59.13	$61.02	$62.91
	5.6	$49.56	$51.52	$53.48	$55.44	$57.40	$59.36	$61.32	$63.28	$65.24
	5.8	$51.33	$53.36	$55.39	$57.42	$59.45	$61.48	$63.51	$65.54	$67.57
	6	$53.10	$55.20	$57.30	$59.40	$61.50	$63.60	$65.70	$67.80	$69.90
	6.2	$54.87	$57.04	$59.21	$61.38	$63.55	$65.72	$67.89	$70.06	$72.23
	6.4	$56.64	$58.88	$61.12	$63.36	$65.60	$67.84	$70.08	$72.32	$74.56
	6.6	$58.41	$60.72	$63.03	$65.34	$67.65	$69.96	$72.27	$74.58	$76.89
	6.8	$60.18	$62.56	$64.94	$67.32	$69.70	$72.08	$74.46	$76.84	$79.22
	7	$61.95	$64.40	$66.85	$69.30	$71.75	$74.20	$76.65	$79.10	$81.55

I suppose imitation is the sincerest form of flattery ... but at least use a different color scheme!

 

Flash Friday sales are what they are, but I just have a difficult time seeing it have a lower IM that TF is about to have, without a big EA run and with an inflated Sunday. Like if you compare the ratio of MTC1 EA+Thu/Fri sales for TF at T-7, Flash is ahead, and even if the walk-up rate is lower, a similar Th/Fri (1.9x) ratio seems plausible. Would have to drop to like 1.7x or even 1.6x range to get to the bottom half of your IM scale

 

21 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Flash MTC1
Early shows - 3696/4478 86196.54 13 shows
Previews -  71450/544401 1344391.06 2816 shows +3655
Friday - 42288/810835 794916.86 4106 shows

On 6/3/2023 at 1:17 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Transformers MTC1

Wednesday - 18402/35697 365979.30 178 shows

Previews - 33001/627076 622275.55 3359 shows

Friday - 25350/848328 466429.16 4321 shows

 

I know its a CBM in summer, but I'm just starting to believe the more CBM-y audience had kinda checked out on DC generally, and this will play more GA, similar to Black Adam

Edited June 10, 2023 by M37

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

2 hours ago, Into the Legion-Verse said:

 

Legion Flash OW ForecastMatrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$8.85	$9.20	$9.55	$9.90	$10.25	$10.60	$10.95	$11.30	$11.65
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	5.4	$47.79	$49.68	$51.57	$53.46	$55.35	$57.24	$59.13	$61.02	$62.91
	5.6	$49.56	$51.52	$53.48	$55.44	$57.40	$59.36	$61.32	$63.28	$65.24
	5.8	$51.33	$53.36	$55.39	$57.42	$59.45	$61.48	$63.51	$65.54	$67.57
	6	$53.10	$55.20	$57.30	$59.40	$61.50	$63.60	$65.70	$67.80	$69.90
	6.2	$54.87	$57.04	$59.21	$61.38	$63.55	$65.72	$67.89	$70.06	$72.23
	6.4	$56.64	$58.88	$61.12	$63.36	$65.60	$67.84	$70.08	$72.32	$74.56
	6.6	$58.41	$60.72	$63.03	$65.34	$67.65	$69.96	$72.27	$74.58	$76.89
	6.8	$60.18	$62.56	$64.94	$67.32	$69.70	$72.08	$74.46	$76.84	$79.22
	7	$61.95	$64.40	$66.85	$69.30	$71.75	$74.20	$76.65	$79.10	$81.55

 

1 hour ago, M37 said:

 

 

Flash OW Forecast Matrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$9.0	$9.4	$9.9	$10.3	$10.8	$11.2	$11.6	$12.1	$12.5
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	6.25	$56.3	$59.0	$61.7	$64.5	$67.2	$69.9	$72.7	$75.4	$78.1
	6.44	$57.9	$60.8	$63.6	$66.4	$69.2	$72.0	$74.8	$77.7	$80.5
	6.63	$59.6	$62.5	$65.4	$68.3	$71.2	$74.1	$77.0	$79.9	$82.8
	6.81	$61.3	$64.3	$67.3	$70.3	$73.2	$76.2	$79.2	$82.2	$85.2
	7.00	$63.0	$66.1	$69.1	$72.2	$75.3	$78.3	$81.4	$84.4	$87.5
	7.19	$64.7	$67.8	$71.0	$74.1	$77.3	$80.4	$83.6	$86.7	$89.8
	7.38	$66.4	$69.6	$72.8	$76.1	$79.3	$82.5	$85.7	$89.0	$92.2
	7.56	$68.1	$71.4	$74.7	$78.0	$81.3	$84.6	$87.9	$91.2	$94.5
	7.75	$69.8	$73.1	$76.5	$79.9	$83.3	$86.7	$90.1	$93.5	$96.9

 

 

 

GRID OFF!! 

[Krissykins]

2 hours ago, Into the Legion-Verse said:

Elemental is hard to say even being relatively close to release now since as a low hype original animation is has pretty low sales. But vaguely we are expecting 2.5-3.5ish previews and 10-14ish IM so say 30-42ish

 

Flash is looking like 9-11 and maybe 5.6-6.8 for say 56-68 (though some are expecting higher than that).   
 

Since people seem to like the grid, here’s my t-7 thoughts in grid form:

Legion Flash OW ForecastMatrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$8.85	$9.20	$9.55	$9.90	$10.25	$10.60	$10.95	$11.30	$11.65
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	5.4	$47.79	$49.68	$51.57	$53.46	$55.35	$57.24	$59.13	$61.02	$62.91
	5.6	$49.56	$51.52	$53.48	$55.44	$57.40	$59.36	$61.32	$63.28	$65.24
	5.8	$51.33	$53.36	$55.39	$57.42	$59.45	$61.48	$63.51	$65.54	$67.57
	6	$53.10	$55.20	$57.30	$59.40	$61.50	$63.60	$65.70	$67.80	$69.90
	6.2	$54.87	$57.04	$59.21	$61.38	$63.55	$65.72	$67.89	$70.06	$72.23
	6.4	$56.64	$58.88	$61.12	$63.36	$65.60	$67.84	$70.08	$72.32	$74.56
	6.6	$58.41	$60.72	$63.03	$65.34	$67.65	$69.96	$72.27	$74.58	$76.89
	6.8	$60.18	$62.56	$64.94	$67.32	$69.70	$72.08	$74.46	$76.84	$79.22
	7	$61.95	$64.40	$66.85	$69.30	$71.75	$74.20	$76.65	$79.10	$81.55

I can’t see a 5.6x multiplier happening, but anything could, it’s summer after all. 
 

I’m going to guess $10.2m previews, $71m opening weekend. 

[reddevil19]

Yes, I definitely think hardcore fans have mostly checked out as they're waiting for the universe reboot. If the reviews stay mostly positive (I.e. over 70), the release date is good enough for it to open above 70 with 10-11 previews, I feel like.