The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[RamblinRed]

So my take right now from what the trackers are showing is that Flash has stopped the bleeding, but to this point it isn't growing at a rate to improve itself vs its comps. Just sort of holding steady.

 

Is that a fair take?

 

[vafrow]

11 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

So my take right now from what the trackers are showing is that Flash has stopped the bleeding, but to this point it isn't growing at a rate to improve itself vs its comps. Just sort of holding steady.

 

Is that a fair take?

 

 

We're still seeing a slight decline from what I'm seeing, but, it's generally true. It's not in a tailspin. It's not on its way up.

 

The challenge it has is that it's best comps are films that had really good final stretches. It needs to show good growth just to stay pace.

 

Scenarios where things can get really ugly are still on the table, even though I'm still leaning towards an $80M prediction myself. 

[M37]

6 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

So my take right now from what the trackers are showing is that Flash has stopped the bleeding, but to this point it isn't growing at a rate to improve itself vs its comps. Just sort of holding steady.

 

Is that a fair take?

 

Mostly, Sat updates weren't as good as Friday, so still shading a bit below comps in terms of pace, but not well below them; Sunday is going to be the key update. Problem is that it won't get the review release bump in the last week like most comps did, so default expectation is for it continue to trend below comps, but also into summer so films are generally more walk-up friendly for their Thursday and Flash possibly make up that difference in that final day. Just seems unlikely to exceed comps from here, best case more matching them

[ZackM]

On 6/6/2023 at 7:22 PM, ZackM said:

 

 

The Flash Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days
	Last 5 Days
Showings Added	7
Seats Added	651
Seats Sold	10,682
6/5/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	425	2,694	60,817	520,445	11.69%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	4	36	87
ATP	Gross
$18.98	$1,154,307
The Flash Fan First Screenings in IMAX Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days
6/5/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	13	13	3,580	4,478	79.95%
ATP	Gross
$23.39	$83,736

 

Well, for some reason my tracker didn't trigger on two of the previous 5 days.  Gonna have to figure that out, but here are numbers as of last night:

 

The Flash Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days
	Last 3 Days			4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	9			8	33
Seats Added	912			1,566	6,320
Seats Sold	9,973			2,722	3,352
6/10/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	427	2,744	76,864	529,243	14.52%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	1	14	66	134
ATP	Gross
$18.66	$1,434,282
The Flash Fan First Screenings in IMAX Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days
6/10/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	13	13	3,767	4,478	84.12%
ATP	Gross
$23.29	$87,733

 

[ZackM]

On 6/6/2023 at 7:20 PM, ZackM said:

 

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-24 days
	Last 5 Days
Showings Added	0
Seats Added	0
Seats Sold	3,241
6/5/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	417	2,459	25,655	502,491	5.11%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	1	3	8	11
ATP	Gross
$18.84	$483,340

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-19 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	11			0	3
Seats Added	1,677			0	326
Seats Sold	2,290			716	515
6/10/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	421	2,473	29,176	504,494	5.78%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	2	3	9	17
ATP	Gross
$18.77	$547,634

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/10/2023 at 8:59 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Blackening	T-5	Jax	5	12	2	9	966	0.93%
		Phx	6	16	5	18	1,707	1.05%
		Ral	6	14	-1	9	802	1.12%
	Total		17	42	6	36	3,475	1.04%
Blackening (EA)	T-4	Jax	4	4	21	65	357	18.21%
		Phx	3	3	13	71	210	33.81%
		Ral	6	6	9	29	655	4.43%
	Total		13	13	43	165	1,222	13.50%
Elemental	T-5	Jax	5	40	14	64	5,234	1.22%
		Phx	6	42	1	93	5,156	1.80%
		Ral	8	39	3	79	4,743	1.67%
	Total		19	121	18	236	15,133	1.56%
Flash	T-5	Jax	6	64	35	555	10,050	5.52%
		Phx	6	48	36	653	8,749	7.46%
		Ral	8	63	17	481	8,688	5.54%
	Total		20	175	88	1,689	27,487	6.14%

 

Flash T-5 comps

 - Shang-Chi - 1.174x (10.33m)

 - Shazam 2 - 3.08x (10.48m)

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 - F9 - 1.482x (10.52m)

 - Eternals - .734x (6.98m)

 - Black Adam - 1.31x (9.99m)

 - Morbius - 1.887x (10.76m)

 

Looking like in the 10m range.  3-day pace (+17%) is closest to Eternals (+16.3%) and Morbius (18.1%).  Well ahead of Shazam 2 (+11.1%) and behind the others.

 

Blackening T-5 comps

 - Escape Room 2 - 1.059x (1.27m)

 - Men - 1.059x (448k)

 - Firestarter - 1.091x (409k)

 - Night House - 2.4x (624k)

 

Blackening + EA T-5 comps

 - Black Phone + EA - .767x (2.3m)

 - Smile + EA - missed

 

Elemental T-5 comps

 - Lightyear - .438x (2.15m)

 - Strange World - 6.378x (5.1m) 

 - Encanto (Tues) - 2.17x (3.25m)

 - Paws of Fury - 5.9x (2.98m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Blackening	T-4	Jax	5	12	1	10	966	1.04%
		Phx	6	16	3	21	1,707	1.23%
		Ral	6	14	2	11	802	1.37%
	Total		17	42	6	42	3,475	1.21%
Blackening (EA)	T-3	Jax	4	4	7	72	357	20.17%
		Phx	3	3	-2	69	210	32.86%
		Ral	6	6	2	31	655	4.73%
	Total		13	13	7	172	1,222	14.08%
Elemental	T-4	Jax	5	40	4	68	5,234	1.30%
		Phx	6	42	12	105	5,156	2.04%
		Ral	8	39	5	84	4,743	1.77%
	Total		19	121	21	257	15,133	1.70%
Flash	T-4	Jax	6	64	31	586	10,050	5.83%
		Phx	6	48	43	696	8,749	7.96%
		Ral	8	63	55	536	8,688	6.17%
	Total		20	175	129	1,818	27,487	6.61%

 

Flash T-4 comps

 - Shang-Chi - 1.163x (10.24m)

 - Shazam 2 - 3.16x (10.73m)

 - Ghostbusters - 2.26x (9.4m)

 - F9 - 1.465x (10.4m)

 - Eternals - .736x (6.99m)

 - Black Adam - missed

 - Morbius - 1.849x (10.54m)

 

Not much change here.

 

Blackening T-4 comps

 - Escape Room 2 - .913x (1.1m)

 - Men - 913x (386k)

 - Firestarter - 1x (375k)

 - Night House - 2.47x (642k)

 

Blackening + EA T-4 comps

 - Black Phone + EA - missed

 - Smile + EA - missed

 

Elemental T-4 comps

 - Lightyear - missed

 - Strange World - 5.84x (4.67m) 

 - Encanto (Tues) - 1.59x (2.38m)

 - Paws of Fury - 5.25x (2.65m)

[Dragoncaine]

To be clear, we're waiting until tomorrow to gauge the Sunday comps updates, right? Or Sunday night iirc?

[Joyous Legion]

2 minutes ago, Dragoncaine said:

To be clear, we're waiting until tomorrow to gauge the Sunday comps updates, right? Or Sunday night iirc?

We’ll get Sunday updates throughout the day but the people on a night schedule will have it be more applicable. The last of those should be Porthos is ~20 hrs or maybe a bit sooner. For morning update people like Kantmiss you wouldn’t see the effect of a Sunday night increase until the mon update.

 

Edited June 11, 2023 by Into the Legion-Verse

[XXR & Friends]

@datpepper I may have missed it, but do we have any indication when Barbie tickets will go on sale?

[M37]

49 minutes ago, XXRptimus Primal said:

@datpepper I may have missed it, but do we have any indication when Barbie tickets will go on sale?

WB is usually consistent about a 3-4 week sales window, so would think around Tue 6/27, but maybe they want to get right to it after Flash OW

[rehpyc]

MTC3 The Flash T-5, including EAs:

BA: 12.80M

JW4: 12.33M

AtSV: 11.27M

FX: 12.65M

RoTB: 15.06M

Bats: 8.57M

 

RoTB has the high end right now, but it's rightly dropping at the highest rate (i.e. 1M per T day vs. others at .4-.5M), so in another 2 days will be just in line with the others. Bats being early 2022 is likely projecting low due to a different pricing scheme at the MTC at the time compared to more recent comps.

[YSLDC]

20 minutes ago, rehpyc said:

MTC3 The Flash T-5, including EAs:

BA: 12.80M

JW4: 12.33M

AtSV: 11.27M

FX: 12.65M

RoTB: 15.06M

Bats: 8.57M

 

RoTB has the high end right now, but it's rightly dropping at the highest rate (i.e. 1M per T day vs. others at .4-.5M), so in another 2 days will be just in line with the others. Bats being early 2022 is likely projecting low due to a different pricing scheme at the MTC at the time compared to more recent comps.

 

So this points to about $11M right?

[filmlover]

Barbie is WB's next movie after The Flash so June 21 (one month until release on the dot) would make sense as the day tickets go on sale.

[rehpyc]

10 minutes ago, YSLDC said:

 

So this points to about $11M right?

If the rate vs. comps stays the same through T-0, the average (ignoring Bats) does point to 11M, yes.

[vafrow]

2 hours ago, Dragoncaine said:

To be clear, we're waiting until tomorrow to gauge the Sunday comps updates, right? Or Sunday night iirc?

 

Just a suggestion, but, if you're really keen to follow the progress on Flash like you appear to be, I'd recommend tracking your local theatre.

 

You won't have comps, but you can track daily growth rates. I'm looking to see if Flash can manage 20% daily growth this week to stay pace with comps, maybe a bit more to reverse trends. But, others here can probably give you a more precise target of what to look for.

 

Just put it down in a spreadsheet somewhere so you can see progress. Then you've got that as a comp for the future if you want to do this for other films.

 

I'm just tracking one theater myself. That data isn't as valuable as the people doing whole metro areas, but it's still useful. 

[MightyDargon]

More Oppenheimer stats pls

[Redolent]

30 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Barbie is WB's next movie after The Flash so June 21 (one month until release on the dot) would make sense as the day tickets go on sale.

It will be interesting to see if there’s an uptick in Oppenheimer ticket sales, ie people planning the ‘double feature’ viewing.

[Ohana]

Several years ago (6-7) I remember there were 2 sites where we could watch tickets selling in real time, 
what happend to these sites? anyone remembers? 
(they were even links here directed to them)

[GOGODanca]

Elemental (D-4):                        175 tickets sold (+26 yd)

 

IJ5 (D-18):                                      330 tickets sold (+7 yd)

 

Oppenheimer: (D-39):                445 tickets sold (+19 yd)

 

 

 

[XXR & Friends]

3 minutes ago, Ohana said:

Several years ago (6-7) I remember there were 2 sites where we could watch tickets selling in real time, 
what happend to these sites? anyone remembers? 
(they were even links here directed to them)

 

Endgame destroyed them both.