The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[ringedmortality]

Yeah I knew Eric would follow that account lol

[ThomasNicole]

10 minutes ago, XXRkham Asylum said:

Seems like the best case scenario at this point is roughly 11 x 7 and the worst case is probably 8 x 5.5 

8 x 5.5 would the biggest disaster since COVID for a big movie like this imo

 

Absolutely unreal, personally i don’t think it will be this bad, but i think the combo of previews losing pace and the weekend sales not getting good growths from what i’m seeing are putting sub 60 OW into realistic expectation which is still crazy

[XXR vs XXR]

Just now, ThomasNicole said:

8 x 5.5 would the biggest disaster since COVID for a big movie like this imo

 

Absolutely unreal, personally i don’t think it will be this bad, but i think the combo of previews losing pace and the weekend sales not getting good growths from what i’m seeing are putting sub 60 OW into realistic expectation which is still crazy

 

Yea I don't think it'll be (8 x 5.5) bad but at this point I'm expecting (9.5 x 6-6.5).

[TheFlatLannister]

Guardians comp gets me $8.1M 

Spiderverse comp gets me $10.3M

 

I guess those two could be used as my low end high end 

[Eric S'ennui]

6 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

Yeah I knew Eric would follow that account lol

I don't? Never heard of that account before. This was just something shared in the BOT Telegram chat and I wanted to share it here.

[Relevation]

32 minutes ago, XXRkham Asylum said:

Seems like the best case scenario at this point is roughly 11 x 7 and the worst case is probably 8 x 5.5 

Holy shit if it did 8 x 5.5

That would literally be low enough for Elemental to open at #1

[rehpyc]

Updated T-4 The Flash (for whatever reason had my flag set to exclude EAs)

T-4 The Flash

BA: 12.14M

JW4: 11.80M

AtSV: 11.06M

FX: 12.27M

RoTB: 13.80M

 

T-3 The Flash

BA: 11.70M

JW4: 11.36M

AtSV: 10.75M

FX: 12.04M

RoTB: 13.21M

 

EA sales growth has been outright silly. Yesterday's overall loss vs. comps was actually not terrible. Overall sales were higher than comps that had Thursday OW grosses of 9M or below, but those sales added being a smaller proportion of its current sales vs. its comps. Trajectory still looking like it could head to 10-11M if its late growth or walk-ups come in similar to comps. I think trades are expecting this, with the hope of good WOM bringing stronger walk-ups for a 6-7x multiplier, for that 70-75M.

[Rocketracoon]

5 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Holy shit if it did 8 x 5.5

That would literally be low enough for Elemental to open at #1

Wouldn’t Elemental have to overpeform to get above 44m?

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

30 minutes ago, XXRkham Asylum said:

 

Yea I don't think it'll be (8 x 5.5) bad but at this point I'm expecting (9.5 x 6-6.5).

I think 8 is mostly off the table after yesterday, it stopped the bleeding in most samples.

[Vector Sigma]

Yeah that's it, Flash is DOA. China's not coming to the rescue either. Utter disaster for WB. None of the Snyder actors can return. If it weren't for the December release date, I'd have Aquaman 2 under 500 but then again, it's not impossible. 

[Relevation]

12 minutes ago, Rocketracoon said:

Wouldn’t Elemental have to overpeform to get above 44m?

 

I’m thinking it will. The positive surge in reception and the wild card family factor could result in a Transformers-style late surge, resulting in $3.5M previews and a 13x IM to $45-46M for the weekend. That’s over the $44M that the worst case scenario for The Flash entails.

Edited June 14, 2023 by Relevation
Wanted to capitalize “Flash”

[ThomasNicole]

19 minutes ago, Rocketracoon said:

Wouldn’t Elemental have to overpeform to get above 44m?

 

Yes but it’s looking kinda possible imo 

 

It is showing signs of life for previews, let’s see if the pace will keep getting better. If it did i can see ~4M previews.

 

Then it will need good reception from audiences (A Cinemascore), which would make 11-12x IM more possible considering Father’s Day and the natural backloaded nature of original animated movies. 

 

So you see, a lot of variables here, but it’s showing some pulse that make this ~45M extrapolation possible if everything goes right 

 

With that said, i still think Flash will be #1 with comfortably over 50M OW

Edited June 14, 2023 by ThomasNicole

[XXR vs XXR]

11 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

I think 8 is mostly off the table after yesterday, it stopped the bleeding in most samples.

 

Well that's good at least. It would be nice if it hit $70M after all. Not a win in the greater sense but a small victory given where it could have gone...

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, XXRkham Asylum said:

 

Well that's good at least. It would be nice if it hit $70M after all. Not a win in the greater sense but a small victory given where it could have gone...

I mean if we go with the worst case scenario IM of 5.5, a 9 preview x 5.5 only gets it to 49.5.... Guess it depends on how much those disaster scenarios work out or not.

[Ledmonkey96]

if it only manages a 5.5 IM when Monday is a federal holiday that'd be atrocious

Edited June 14, 2023 by Ledmonkey96

[Ohana]

We shall see. I currently have it at $85m for the weekend, took a big leap today and is a good measure ahead of Transformers. I also think word of mouth and Father's Day will help drive it up. https://t.co/dVJa8jzCD9

— EmpireCity Box Office (@EmpireCityBO) June 14, 2023

[BluKyberCrystal]

12 minutes ago, XXRkham Asylum said:

 

Well that's good at least. It would be nice if it hit $70M after all. Not a win in the greater sense but a small victory given where it could have gone...

Considering the question not long ago was if 100m was on the table, I don't think 70m can be considered any sort of victory.

[M37]

2 hours ago, Eric Prime said:

 

Neat little thread for people to look into if they are interested

So what I'm gathering is that Barbie shows will be full of unmarried, child-free, higher earning women under 40?

 

 

In all seriousness, would love to get my hands on more detailed demo data like this. And from a tracking perspective, don't get too excited about an early sales rush, would absolutely expect a MUCH flatter final week of sales. And frankly, for similar reasons, same applies to the Oppenheimer based on those breakdowns

Edited June 14, 2023 by M37

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, M37 said:

So what I'm gathering is that Barbie shows will be full of unmarried, child-free, higher earning women under 40?

 

 

In all seriousness, would love to get my hands on more detailed demo data like this. And from a tracking perspective, don't get too excited about an early sales rush, would absolutely expect a MUCH flatter final week of sales. And frankly, for similar reasons, same applies to the Oppenheimer based on those breakdowns

 

I mean, I do, what of it? Lots of random and interesting things in between the named purpose of the account

I think the raw level is mostly useless, but I remember seeing similar poll where Gran Turismo was higher than both Barbie and Opp for whatever that's worth lol. But yeah I agree that both movies should be pretty presale-heavy (final week/previous days) based on this data. Barbie in particular is gonna be a pain to comp at first.

Edited June 14, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[Cmasterclay]

Not stunned at all by the Flash. I get alot wrong so not attempting to brag. But given that WW did 103 despite being a beloved and socially relevant hit in prime superhero times, and a Justice League movie did only 93 despite being a fucking Justice League movie, I don't know why a more minor character in a broken DC universe with a toxic star and no goodwill for this character would suddenly explode. Because it features a Batman from like five Batmans ago who was like the third biggest character in his own movies? Because it stole a gimmick two different Spider-Men movie had done? I think I had it 80/220 in my January predictions and that felt high. The amount of hand wringing about it is just out of control and totally manufactured and not reflective of reality. 70 would be very impressive tbh.  End rant.

Edited June 14, 2023 by Cmasterclay