The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[emoviefan]

17 minutes ago, Flip said:

I really think that social reviews affect movies basically not at all, can’t remember a recent movie that got a boost from them, critic reviews are the real booster

Yeah probably right.A percentage or number on RT or MC means a lot more to General audiences than the explosion of reactions which blend together and all sound the same. 

[rehpyc]

2 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Comps continue to fall. Adding Little Mermaid comp (Following @Porthos lead once again)

 

I refuse.. what does @Porthos know? Okay, fine, added to my last update 🙃

[Mulder]

36 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Two points about Barbie Blowout Party, at least locally.

 

1] It is selling very well.

2] There are only three EA showings locally in the entire Greater Sacto region, near as I can tell.

 

One doesn't diminish the other, but I do think it might put it in some context.

 

(yes, I'll make a report tonight at the end of day)

Yeah this was the only other thing I forgot to mention. The early showings are in super limited quantities, so they're going to be inflated by that. It's still a good sign interest wise though imo.

[M37]

1 hour ago, Relevation said:

Across the Spider-Verse? 

Honestly, this is where I might start with a comp for Barbie, for a few reasons

[Borobudur]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Barbie MTC1 Early Shows - 7996/20800 178987.54 109 shows

 

I am sure its making 1 Barbillion :-) . Let us see how preview sales go on 21st. I will be able to track OD presales for sure. Zack can continue to track it after that. 

The early look got some potential to $100m OW, at least more probable than when Flash first hit presale. 

[Mulder]

Just now, Borobudur said:

The early look got some potential to $100m OW, at least more probable than when Flash first hit presale. 

I wouldn't go that far yet. More like it's showing enough strength for at least a 50-60+ imo. We'll see how it does tomorrow with the wider presales being rolled out.

[ringedmortality]

Do we think this has potential to revive the genre at the box office?

[TheFlatLannister]

12 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

The early look got some potential to $100m OW, at least more probable than when Flash first hit presale. 

let's slow down. $80M+ would be massive. Plus EA doesn't give a true picture of PS 

[Spidey Freak]

Is it true that SV2 get back some of its PLF screens this Friday?

[Menor the Destroyer]

Thing is Flash had easy comps that made it clear from the start it wasn't opening that huge. Barbie is a bit of an odd duck, even after the first full day of presales I suspect there will be a wide range of possibilities. That said this will clearly be a success from EA starting off that big, it's just a question of how much.

[misterpepp]

16 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:

Is it true that SV2 get back some of its PLF screens this Friday?

 

Yes, some Dolby screens are switching back.

[Cmasterclay]

Crystal clear that Barie is the only movie that could make 200m domestic the rest of this summer. Mission Impossible and Indy sales are an absolute disaster.

[ringedmortality]

3 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Mission Impossible and Indy sales are an absolute disaster.

 

Isn't it a bit early to say that about movies that are probably gonna be more walk-up friendly like Transformers.

[emoviefan]

5 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Crystal clear that Barie is the only movie that could make 200m domestic the rest of this summer. Mission Impossible and Indy sales are an absolute disaster.

Can we not do this doom and gloom please. 

[MrPink]

Dead Reckoning pre-sales aren't like fantastic but that's just how it goes for Mission Impossible every time and the early access shows + Tuesday opening are making it worse. But taking a broader look at things, Tom Cruise hasn't been this popular in a long long while and the franchise is at its peak in terms of reception and it doesn't seem like Dead Reckoning is going to slip on that. So, I think matching Fallout is still a very realistic and I would edge towards likely goal. Saying it has no chance at 200m seems silly to me when this franchise has been hovering around this mark for the last 12 years consistently. The main downfalls are lack of premium screens and tougher competition, but with how weak June has been, I think that gives MI prime positioning to do well.

Edited June 21, 2023 by MrPink

[PrinceRico]

So how are this week releases looking

[Redolent]

Seeing Barbie (and/or seeing it as a double feature with Oppenheimer), had become a bit of an ‘event’ for some people, meaning advance planning and coordination are needed. Especially if you’re grabbing these tickets. I don’t think it’s comparable with Mission Impossible and its typical demographic, but doesn’t mean MI won’t do well.

[Borobudur]

If Transformer managed to pull off a late surge from $45m OW to $60m+ opener, there should not be much hesitation to consider MI couldn't pull off the same trick with glowing review.

[Grebacio]

3 hours ago, XXRkham Asylum said:

 

I was thinking more like Oppenheimer (obvious flaws with this one of course), Dune, something from Scorsese/Tarantino. Not sure how many people actually have comps like that though....

Maybe TGM. 

Crawdads?

[emoviefan]

7 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

The current state of box office is reflecting my own mental health strongly indeed.

The two best reviewed and received movies of the summer Guardians 3 and ATSV  have done well. Everything else has either gotten a poor or just okay reception from either audiences or critics .Yes Indy is pretty doomed from really breaking out at this point because of a mixed reception from critics but I see no reason if MI, Oppenheimer,and Barbie all get received well things will look much better a month from now if not them we can doom and gloom and be depressed.