The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[keysersoze123]

17 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

MTC1 Previews(T-1)

No Hard Feelings - 15188/147118 223118.18 1418 shows +4709

Asteroid City - 10979/71252 159003.83 704 shows +2772

 

Not sure Asteroid City will be able to have the walkups required to hit 1m. Its probably falling short. No Hard feelings should come close to 35K. That means 1.7-1.8m previews. 

MTC1 Previews

No Hard Feelings - 25860/148043 373841.92 1421 shows +10672

Asteroid City - 15534/72004 225572.90 714 shows +4555

 

In line with what I thought yesterday. Asteroid could squeeze through to 1m previews. 

[vale9001]

30 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am thinking Indy/MI too high and B+O will over perform. This is just based on my take with PS. 

Agree. Both will end at the top of the prediction. 80-85m Barbie and 55-60 Nolan 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Barbie

 

Thursday

 

T-29

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
103	874	18994	4.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

EA

T-28

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
9	906	1747	51.8%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

*Couple of near sellouts 

 

COMPS

T-29

*Excludes any EA

 

About (1.080x) of RoTB First 24 hours

(1.419x) of Oppenheimer First 24 hours

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Barbie

 

Thursday

 

T-28

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
103	1180	18994	6.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

306

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

EA

T-27

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
9	950	1747	54.4%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

44

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

2

 

 

COMPS

T-28

*Excludes any EA

 

(1.459x) of RoTB

~$12.9M THUR Previews

[katnisscinnaplex]

8 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Asteroid City	T-0	Jax	6	12	52	262	1,104	23.73%
		Phx	7	16	55	183	1,490	12.28%
		Ral	5	10	28	136	848	16.04%
	Total		18	38	135	581	3,442	16.88%
No Feelings	T-0	Jax	5	19	72	126	1,567	8.04%
		Phx	7	30	67	147	2,568	5.72%
		Ral	7	27	82	168	2,756	6.10%
	Total		19	76	221	441	6,891	6.40%

 

Asteroid City T-0 comps

 - Cocaine Bear - .98x (1.96m)

 - Easter Sunday - 4.648x (2.32m)

 - The Menu - 2.12x (1.91m)

 - Violent Night - 2.18x (2.4m)

 - Last Night in Soho - 2.515x (1.89m)

 - A Man Called Otto - 2.22x (1.41m)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.81m 

New model prediction - 1.82m

 

No Hard Feelings T-0 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 3.528x (1.764m)

 - Violent Night - 1.658x (1.824m)

 - 80 for Brady - 1.51x (1.132)

 - Lost City - .643x (1.607m)

 - A Man Called Otto - 1.683x (1.07m)

 - The Menu - 1.609x (1.45m)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.41m

New model prediction - 1.77m

 

I made a couple adjustments to my growth model for finding comps.  

 

No Hard Feelings - Similar growth pattern comps

 - Pope's Exorcist - 2.172x (1.85m)

 - Death on the Nile - 1.305x (1.44m)

 - Northman - .803x (1.08m)

 - Encanto - .976x (1.46m)

 - West Side Story - 1.505x (1.2m)

 - The Menu (Total) - 1.058x (1.058m)

 - House of Gucci - .971x (1.263m)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.22m

 

Asteroid City - Similar growth pattern comps

 - House of Gucci - 1.28x (1.66m)

 - Candyman - 1.124x (2.14m)

 - One Piece - .625x (1.06m)

 - Suzume - 1.442x (980k)

 - RRR - .408x (1.41m)

 - Cocaine Bear - .98x (1.96m)

 

Size adjusted average - 1.49m

 

For my semi-final predictions (before 1hr check) I'll go with 1.45m for No Hard Feelings (excluding EA) and 1.6m for Asteroid City.  Looking at other areas makes me think these will be pretty far off, but I'm only going off how my regions are selling.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Asteroid City	1-Hr	Jax	6	12	69	331	1,104	29.98%
		Phx	7	16	73	256	1,490	17.18%
		Ral	5	10	61	197	848	23.23%
	Total		18	38	203	784	3,442	22.78%
No Feelings	1-Hr	Jax	5	19	139	265	1,567	16.91%
		Phx	7	30	87	234	2,568	9.11%
		Ral	7	27	207	375	2,756	13.61%
	Total		19	76	433	874	6,891	12.68%

*Note: I was a little late running the NHF 6pm+ report so the numbers will be slightly inflated.

 

Asteroid City T-1hr comps

 - Cocaine Bear - missed

 - Easter Sunday - 4.84x (2.42m)

 - The Menu - 1.786x (1.61m)

 - Violent Night - 1.853x (2.04m)

 - Last Night in Soho - 2.904x (2.18m)

 - A Man Called Otto - missed

All comedy - 1.81m

All 7pm - 1.67m

All R movies - 1.81m

All movies - 1.68m

 

Size adjusted average - 1.51m 

New model prediction - 1.84m

Final prediction - 1.65m

 

No Hard Feelings T-1hr comps

 - Easter Sunday - 5.395x (2.7m)

 - Violent Night - 2.066x (2.27m)

 - 80 for Brady - missed

 - Lost City - .871x (2.18m)

 - A Man Called Otto - missed

 - The Menu - 1.991x (1.79m)

All comedy - 1.99m

All 4pm - 1.79m

All R movies - 2.02m

All movies - 1.87m

 

Size adjusted average - 2.01m

New model prediction - 2.7m

Final prediction - 2m (Not including EA)

[TheFlatLannister]

22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One

 

Tuesday

 

T-20

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
166	930	33846	2.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

23

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

EA

T-19

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
11	524	2148	24.4%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

10

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

 

Mi7 Walmart+ Special 

 

MTC1 = 27 sold / 291 seats  (+4)

MTC2 = 29 sold / 114 seats  (+2)

 

 

Comps T-20:

(0.852x) of RotB $7.5M EXCLUDING ANY EA 

(0.526x) of Indy 5 ???

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One

 

Tuesday

 

T-19

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
166	965	33846	2.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

35

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

EA

T-18

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
11	528	2148	24.6%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

4

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

 

Mi7 Walmart+ Special 

 

MTC1 = 29 sold / 291 seats  (+2)

MTC2 = 29 sold / 114 seats  (+0)

 

 

Comps T-19:

(0.857x) of RotB $7.5M EXCLUDING ANY EA 

(0.540x) of Indy 5 ???

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

RUBY GILLMAN, TEENAGE KRAKEN

 

THURSDAY

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
77	91	11728	0.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-9

(???x) of ELEMENTAL

~$???K THUR Previews

 

Something is wrong with my scraper for this showing or maybe multiple showings were removed. I'll figure out what's going on with it, but 60+ tickets being refunded does not make sense

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

RUBY GILLMAN, TEENAGE KRAKEN

 

THURSDAY

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
77	95	11728	0.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

4

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-7

(0.151x) of ELEMENTAL

~$350K THUR Previews

Maybe $5M OW??? 

 

Maybe the scraper was working fine? Still find it strange how 60 seats were refunded. Anyways, if these numbers are right, this is an unmitigated disaster. 

[ChipDerby]

I think sales for Ruby Gillman would be up higher if they didn't give the movie a weird name and if the characters didn't look exactly like Smallfoot

[abracadabra1998]

On 6/21/2023 at 4:59 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Twin Cities Previews:

 

Asteroid City (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 12 theaters	19	47	339	1796	18.88

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	16.1
3-Day:	105.45

 

No Hard Feelings (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 13 theaters	42	15	116	3676	3.16

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	14.85
3-Day:	110.91

 

Sorry for all the colors, my scattered mind needs them to keep stuff organized on the spreadsheet LOL. Pretty terrible day for No Hard Feelings. Hoping to be able to check these right before previews tomorrow, but we shall see what life brings.

 

Twin Cities Previews:

 

Asteroid City (T-0, counted 1 hour before preview start):

Day: T-0	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 12 theaters	19	191	530	1793	29.56

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	56.34
3-Day:	153.59

 

Definitely slower growth in the last few days, but I don't know if it's this overperforming or No Hard Feelings underperforming in the cities (likely a mixture of both), this is just blowing it out of the water.

[DAJK]

Asteroid City is selling like crazy here. No Hard Feelings is actually doing pretty decently as well. Hoping for 10M for the former and high teens for the latter.

[Joyous Legion]

5 hours ago, M37 said:

But runs into the problem of having a small, nuanced, and constantly evolving data set where setting upper and lower bounds that determine a 80/90% CI and therefore 50% outcome is a fairly subjective process 

 

Whether one considers AMWQ, GOTG3, BA or Transformers to be normal-ish or more outlier-y outcomes weighs heavily on setting a mid-point for future releases 

Sure, I mean, it’s not easy. But it’s no easier to try to target the 30th percentile or the 20th percentile or whatever. If I miss I miss but I’d at least like to be aiming at the center you know

Edited June 22, 2023 by LegionGPT

[vafrow]

11 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Milton, Ontario

 

Various updates

 

No movement at all on anything today.

 

No Hard Feelings T-1

Still at 5. I'll try and report back with actuals, but, it's not promising right now.

 

Indy 5 T-8

Still at 5 tickets sold.  I'm really not sure what's happening in this market for it to be performing so poorly.

 

MI:DR Part 1 - T-20

Still at 12 rickets

 

Barbie T-29

They finally added last night, but, I think the die hards already purchased tickets elsewhere for theatres that had it up first, as there's zero sales right now. It's been given the largest non Dolby auditorium.

 

 

T-0 No Hard Feelings

Milton, Ontario

 

As of close of early show, ticket sales are 24 across two showings.

 

0.686x of Air for $630K

1.714 of Book Club 2 for $940K

 

I don't think this is the ideal market for the film. But, the rate of walk ups so far has been good.

 

I'll aim to update once late show closes, but, I don't expect a lot of tickets to sell.

[M37]

On 6/20/2023 at 10:05 AM, M37 said:

Feeling more confident in a ~$1.1-$1.3M-ish preview for the Asteroid City expansion, though it looks like J/P/R combo may just finish ahead of the Orlando market in total sales, having basically caught up as of last update [updated: est 750 & 800 finals]

 

... and not so sure that No Hard Feelings beats it by all that much for Thursday. Pace in Orlando has stalled, and it may well come down closer to the J/P/R sample rather than covering in the middle. But this should be a mostly walk-up and weekend/GA friendly feature, so we'll see

Not much of a surprise with these two despite limited data. Asteroid City kinda flat lined in the younger cities (Orlando, Raleigh), but made up for it with the older ones. Still think we're getting ~$1M or so in previews, may dip below though. Probably doesn't IM great given the fanbase, so at best higher single digit OW

 

NHF by the few samples out there seems to be converging on the approx $1.6-$1.8M range, good enough for mid-teens, possibly high teens for OW

[upriser7]

2 hours ago, Eric Wayne said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-barbie-and-oppenheimer/

 

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 6/23/23)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
6/30/2023	Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny	$68,000,000 – $95,000,000	-9%	$211,000,000 – $325,000,000		Disney / Lucasfilm
6/30/2023	Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken	$12,000,000 – $17,000,000	-10%	$35,000,000 – $62,000,000	-10%	Universal / DreamWorks Animation
7/7/2023	Insidious: The Red Door	$24,000,000 – $29,000,000	-7%	$54,000,000 – $66,000,000	-7%	Sony Pictures / Screen Gems
7/7/2023	Joy Ride	$11,000,000 – $16,000,000	-10%	$35,000,000 – $60,000,000	-10%	Lionsgate
7/12/2023	Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One	$65,000,000 – $80,000,000		$250,000,000 – $320,000,000		Paramount Pictures
7/14/2023	PSYCHO-PASS: Providence (Limited)					Sony / Crunchyroll
7/14/2023	Theater Camp (Limited)					Disney / Searchlight Pictures
7/21/2023	Barbie	$55,000,000 – $85,000,000		$120,000,000 – $226,000,000		Warner Bros. Pictures
7/21/2023	Oppenheimer	$40,000,000 – $55,000,000		$137,000,000 – $187,000,000		Universal Pictures

Is there some typo here for MI7 forecast ? Because that lower bound for MI7 domestic total being so high at $250M doesn't make much sense when Fallout did like 220M domestically.

[M37]

On 6/15/2023 at 11:22 PM, M37 said:

Ruby Gillman (edit) T-14 Tampa/St Pete 

Tickets Sold = 13

Yes, this is a real count 

 

Comps:

I suppose I do need to stat delving into Indy numbers now …

Ruby Gillman T-7 Tampa/St Pete Market

Tickets Sold = 29

 

Over 100% growth from T-14, but a lot. Could easily see under $1M Thursday and sub-$10M OW, Paws of Fury style

[emoviefan]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am thinking Indy/MI too high and B+O will over perform. This is just based on my take with PS. 

Well the MI franchise has always been a franchise  that under tracks and over delivers.  Considering this will likely be the first big studio movie of the summer since ATSV to even be above 80% on RT it will have the late sales and walkups and WOM should be good. I feel Indy will get  good. WOM from the casuals too. I want and hope all 4 of these movies to  do well. This forum would be a much happier place if so. 

[abracadabra1998]

On 6/19/2023 at 10:49 AM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Twin Cities Previews:

 

These are from last night. All numbers counted are sales from a three day range: Friday-Sunday.

 

Asteroid City (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 8 theaters	9	43	165	722	22.85

 

No Hard Feelings (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 11 theaters	23	38	55	2011	2.73

 

Asteroid City continues its nice pace, No Hard Feelings finally gets going a bit.

 

Indiana Jones (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 14 theaters	75	41	613	12756	4.81

 

Ruby Gillman (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 9 theaters	30	3	6	2915	0.21

 

Joy Ride (Includes EA, T-18):

Day: T-18	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 11 theaters	47	12	21	4092	0.51

 

Oppenheimer (T-25):

Day: T-25	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 13 theaters	35	37	592	6250	9.47

 

I'll separate these into PLF and non-PLF in the future, that's a good idea.

 

This week, I'll update Asteroid City and No Hard Feelings daily, next update tonight. For the others, next update is Thursday. I will also have Mission Impossible numbers tomorrow, though that is giving me a headache too on how to best do that.

 

 

Twin Cities Previews:

 

Numbers are from the last four days, next update for all these on Sunday.

 

Indiana Jones (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 14 theaters	76	76	689	12986	5.31

 

Ruby Gillman (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 9 theaters	30	3	9	2915	0.31

 

Insidious: The Red Door (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 10 theaters	23	11	11	2038	0.54

 

Really low first day of sales. I have some horror numbers from when I was tracking stuff last year (Smile, Barbarian, The Invitation, Beast, although they're all closer to the release date), so I'll finally have some comps to make these numbers mean something.

 

Barbie (T-28):

Day: T-28, T-27	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 11 theaters	41	179	179	5948	3.01
Wednesday EA: 3 theaters	3	432	432	555	77.84
TOTALS:	44	611	611	6503	9.4

 

Oppenheimer (T-28):

Day: T-28	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 13 theaters	36	64	656	6656	9.86

 

The Barbie Wednesday EA numbers are just stupid lol, like everyone else has been seeing. When you combine them with the Thursday numbers they're almost matching Oppenheimer's total sold.

[vafrow]

2 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

T-0 No Hard Feelings

Milton, Ontario

 

As of close of early show, ticket sales are 24 across two showings.

 

0.686x of Air for $630K

1.714 of Book Club 2 for $940K

 

I don't think this is the ideal market for the film. But, the rate of walk ups so far has been good.

 

I'll aim to update once late show closes, but, I don't expect a lot of tickets to sell.

 Late show update

 

Air $740K

Book Club 2 $1.1K

 

Not horrible.

[filmlover]

The low-end for Barbie ($55M/$120M) looks off unless BOP is expecting absurd levels of frontloading.

 

Or just covering all the bases after flopping epically re: The Flash lol.

[WorkingonaName]

Only 2.65x legs on the high end is absurdly lowballed.

[filmlover]

BTW sales for both No Hard Feelings and Asteroid City have been really good near me for both tonight and the weekend. Hopefully they both reach the high end of their projections.