The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[ZackM]

14 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

$7.2M Indiana Jones 5 THU Previews 

 

That's a 3.62 Alpha Index...pretty much middle of the pack for things I've tracked.

[Maggie]

2 minutes ago, martin said:

Below flash.

Yeah, it's a disaster. I don't get how some people are still optimistic. These numbers are awful

[rebelscum86]

23 minutes ago, martin said:

Below flash.

 

20 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Yeah, it's a disaster. I don't get how some people are still optimistic. These numbers are awful

 

 

Have you 2 even seen an Mission Impossible release before? 8m with a 5 day would be great. This is an incredibly consistent franchise. It's going to hav 3.5x legs, and they typically make 4.5x budget (though that is inflated this time)

 

Rogue Nation had 4m previews opened to 55m and made 200m

Fallout had 6m previews opened to 60m and made 220m

 

Dead Reckoning having 8m previews gives it 80m opening and 280m domestic

[Maggie]

4 minutes ago, rebelscum86 said:

 

 

 

Have you 2 even seen an Mission Impossible release before? 8m with a 5 day would be great. This is an incredibly consistent franchise. It's going to hav 3.5x legs, and they typically make 4.5x budget (though that is inflated this time)

 

Rogue Nation had 4m previews opened to 55m and made 200m

Fallout had 6m previews opened to 60m and made 220m

 

Dead Reckoning having 8m previews gives it 80m opening and 280m domestic

But this time it's different...it's facing losing IMAX screens in second week and juggernaut Barbie/Oppie. The previous MIs had smooth sailing with no competition.

[rebelscum86]

7 minutes ago, rebelscum86 said:

 

 

 

Have you 2 even seen an Mission Impossible release before? 8m with a 5 day would be great. This is an incredibly consistent franchise. It's going to hav 3.5x legs, and they typically make 4.5x budget (though that is inflated this time)

 

Rogue Nation had 4m previews opened to 55m and made 200m

Fallout had 6m previews opened to 60m and made 220m

 

Dead Reckoning having 8m previews gives it 80m opening and 280m domestic

 

Thinking further even Ghost Protocol which had a really funky release and weird run, was released in 400 theaters, had 1m in previews and opened to 12m, so again 10x the preview, It expanded to wide release over Christmas and went on to 210m Domestic.

[Issac Newton]

4 minutes ago, Maggie said:

But this time it's different...it's facing losing IMAX screens in second week and juggernaut Barbie/Oppie. The previous MIs had smooth sailing with no competition.

What total are you predicting? Just Curious 

[Maggie]

1 minute ago, Issac Newton said:

What total are you predicting? Just Curious 

Around Fallout 220M

[rebelscum86]

5 minutes ago, Maggie said:

But this time it's different...it's facing losing IMAX screens in second week and juggernaut Barbie/Oppie. The previous MIs had smooth sailing with no competition.

 

So it's tracking better, but it doesn't count this time b/c other movies are out? I'm sorry but that's just silly. Every movie has to deal with other movies being in theaters and losing screens. This is a thread about modeling actual data. You can say you don't think the legs will be as good this time to hit 3.5 but you can't say it's tracking poorly and looks like it won't open well.

[Maggie]

2 minutes ago, rebelscum86 said:

 

So it's tracking better, but it doesn't count this time b/c other movies are out? I'm sorry but that's just silly. Every movie has to deal with other movies being in theaters and losing screens. This is a thread about modeling actual data. You can say you don't think the legs will be as good this time to hit 3.5 but you can't say it's tracking poorly and looks like it won't open well.

Let's say it does 8 in previews. The internal weekend multiplier will be 7-8, so around 60M five days/?

[rebelscum86]

3 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Around Fallout 220M

 

I would take that. 220m with a 70% Intl split like they usually do gives it $730m WW though I do expect an increas over Fallout with these tracking numbers, great franchis goodwill, and Tom Cruise coming off Maverick. I think it's tracking to 850m and could see it getting close to $1b if there is intl growth thanks to Maverick.

[rebelscum86]

2 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Let's say it does 8 in previews. The internal weekend multiplier will be 7-8, so around 60M five days/?

how did you get an IM of 7-8 for 5 days?

[TheFlatLannister]

3 minutes ago, rebelscum86 said:

 

I would take that. 220m with a 70% Intl split like they usually do gives it $730m WW though I do expect an increas over Fallout with these tracking numbers, great franchis goodwill, and Tom Cruise coming off Maverick. I think it's tracking to 850m and could see it getting close to $1b if there is intl growth thanks to Maverick.

It’s pretty clear this “Maverick boost” isn’t an actual thing. If it was, early tracking would have picked up on it 

[TheFlatLannister]

Indy 5 was only off by $200K in Orlando tracking, but Ruby Gilman under indexed by quite a bit here. 

[ThomasNicole]

13 minutes ago, rebelscum86 said:

how did you get an IM of 7-8 for 5 days?

You don’t, that’s not how IM works at all for an extended week of release

 

8M true TUE would probably means +70M for the 5-Day and even so, the fact that it had a lot of special shows on SUN - MON is likely also messing with TUE sales at some degree, it can ended up with +10M depending on walkups as well and the movie is 3 hours long so we can have better than expect jumps during the weekend even if weekdays came soft.

 

Honestly, with the data we have and the release rollout you can make a case for both 60M or 90M for the 5-day. That’s why everyone here is talking about the possibilities while also being very careful before setting things in stone since this will probably be the hardest movie to track of the summer … the only person blatantly saying random numbers as a sure thing is Maggie. 

Edited June 30, 2023 by ThomasNicole

[ZattMurdock]

48 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Yeah, it's a disaster. I don't get how some people are still optimistic. These numbers are awful

I guess it’s a movie going fatigue more than superhero fatigue after all. There is a recent article on one of Brazil’s biggest newspapers talking about this recently. I know this is no discussion thread and few people will be able to read this without using twitter’s translate (except @ThomasNicole, @CJohn, @ThatWaluigiDude and a few others I guess), but I do agree this is an worldwide sentiment right now:

 

People aren’t just more picky with their moviegoing experiences, they literally have too many options and most of them cheaper than attending the movies at a movie theater. It’s not just streaming, it’s how the tech evolved that a lot of us have better tech to watch films at home than a lot of movie theaters.

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/23/2023 at 3:31 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Emagine Entertainment

T-7 Friday

232 Showings

1072

+108

35292

1.042

The Flash T-7

15.42M

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Emagine Entertainment

 

T-0 Friday

287 Showings

6295

+5223

40426

1.379	The Flash T-0	20.40M
0.486	ATSV T-0	16.78M

 

On 6/23/2023 at 3:30 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Alamo Drafthouse

T-7 Friday

166 Showings

5382

+291

27173

ATP:

15.42

2.151

The Flash T-7

31.84M

0.790

JW Dominion T-7

32.87M

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Alamo Drafthouse

T-0 Friday

337 Showings

13877

+8495

46967

ATP:

15.01

1.591	The Flash T-0	23.55M
0.644	ATSV T-0	22.23M
0.700	Avatar 2 T-0	25.33M
0.664	JW Dominion T-0	27.60M
1.718	Ghostbusters T-0	20.87M

[JustLurking]

if you know it's not a discussion thread then don't post it here, post it in the MI thread

[dallas]

12 hours ago, emoviefan said:

Talking about its box office. This will have a much better internal weekend mulitlpier.  And the Flash cost way more than WB's BS official numbers. 

Proof? Lol

[M37]

51 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Indy 5 was only off by $200K in Orlando tracking, but Ruby Gilman under indexed by quite a bit here. 

Might just be that your primary comp overindexed given Disney

[Porthos]

7 hours ago, Maggie said:

@Porthos Are these numbers for MI:DR for the five days, right? So let's say 8M previews, what would that mean for the opening five days?

 

I'm not pumping out an OW prediction, simply a Tuesday Preview.

 

Where that WILL be high is that it isn't yet taking into account the theaters which are allowing Discount Tuesday pricing (though it will when I do my final report).

 

That being said, I don't share your Sky Is Falling pessimism. This is gonna be a five day opener.  Well, really six day when all of the previews are added together.  This should spread out the ticket buying and not cause it to be so frontloaded.

 

It's fine, in other words.   Frankly it's your expectations which seem out of whack.

 

Anything more I have to say is outside the scope of this thread.