The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

There's a side of me that wonders if WB dominate from late July to August with Barbie, Meg 2 and potentially Blue Beetle. 

 

 

I'll be surprised if Blue Beetle fares any better than Shazam 2 did at this point tbh.

[MCKillswitch123]

35 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Insane numbers. And all this hype started online with the on set pictures while filming. It goes to show, sometimes online hype translates into sales when it's blended with generally recognized brand. Pikachu didn't have that

 

Honestly I think online hype, memes and other modern trend stuff is increasingly notifying of real world hype nowadays. 

 

Pikachu in its time was victimized by the insane schedule it fought (literally opened two weeks after a $357 million opener) and by WB's incapacity to maintain a stable marketing campaign for it. I'm still convinced to this day that Pikachu, in a less crowded month and with better marketing, would have made much more.

 

Off-topic aside, Barbie and Oppenheimer weekend will be glory.

[TalismanRing]

23 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

Honestly I think online hype, memes and other modern trend stuff is increasingly notifying of real world hype nowadays. 

 

Pikachu in its time was victimized by the insane schedule it fought (literally opened two weeks after a $357 million opener) and by WB's incapacity to maintain a stable marketing campaign for it. I'm still convinced to this day that Pikachu, in a less crowded month and with better marketing, would have made much more.

 

Off-topic aside, Barbie and Oppenheimer weekend will be glory.

 

My cold take - Ryan Reynolds voice coming out of Pikachu was extremely off putting. 

[el sid]

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 300 (7 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 293 (17 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 76 (9 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 51 (8 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 51 (7 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 470 (12 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 759 (15 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 2.000 (no trick, it was just that number).

Up ok 19% since yesterday (for one day and at that level that's ok).
Comps (all counted on Monday of the release week for Friday): BT (30M OW) had 1.250 sold tickets,
TG: M (126.7M) had 4.025,
Uncharted (44M) had 1.180,
JWD (145.1M) had 5.623,
Fast X (67M) had 2.354,
Dungeons & Dragon (37.2M) had 1.360,
TLC (30.5M) had 695

and Death on the Nile (12.9M) had 487 sold tickets.

Well, that looks better than yesterday. I'm surprised. It did not again lose ground in the comps, more of the opposite. With good walk-ups (and I expect good walk-ups) I also see 65M OW today.

[Eric the Ape]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-disneys-haunted-mansion-tracking-updates-for-mission-impossible-barbie-and-oppenheimer/

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 6/30/23)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
7/7/2023	Insidious: The Red Door	$20,000,000 – $29,000,000		$45,000,000 – $66,000,000		Sony Pictures / Screen Gems
7/7/2023	Joy Ride	$8,000,000 – $15,000,000		$30,000,000 – $60,000,000		Lionsgate
7/12/2023	Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One	$65,000,000 – $75,000,000	-3%	$250,000,000 – $301,000,000	-3%	Paramount Pictures
7/14/2023	PSYCHO-PASS: Providence (Limited)					Sony / Crunchyroll
7/14/2023	Theater Camp (Limited)					Disney / Searchlight Pictures
7/21/2023	Barbie	$65,000,000 – $90,000,000	+6%	$160,000,000 – $240,000,000	+17%	Warner Bros. Pictures
7/21/2023	Oppenheimer	$45,000,000 – $57,000,000	+11%	$154,000,000 – $194,000,000	+11%	Universal Pictures
7/28/2023	The First Slam Dunk					GKIDS
7/28/2023	Haunted Mansion	$22,000,000 – $37,000,000		$73,000,000 – $131,000,000		Walt Disney Pictures
7/28/2023	Talk to Me					A24

[Cmasterclay]

Well, at least the bottom doesn't appear to be totally falling out.

[LegionWrex]

Seems like walk-ups won't stop the bleeding completely but will at least make sure this gets to the higher end of projections, at least rn. Could be wrong though.

[Daf]

56 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Pikachu in its time was victimized by the insane schedule it fought (literally opened two weeks after a $357 million opener) and by WB's incapacity to maintain a stable marketing campaign for it. I'm still convinced to this day that Pikachu, in a less crowded month and with better marketing, would have made much more.

I wasn't paying much attention to Detective Pikachu's hype and reception but this is the first I'm hearing that it was any kind of a disappointment at the box office. Frankly I was amazed at how well the movie did... I still don't understand how or why such a random movie got made in the first place and how it grossed almost half a billion ww!

 

[MCKillswitch123]

6 minutes ago, Daf said:

I wasn't paying much attention to Detective Pikachu's hype and reception but this is the first I'm hearing that it was any kind of a disappointment at the box office. Frankly I was amazed at how well the movie did... I still don't understand how or why such a random movie got made in the first place and how it grossed almost half a billion ww!

 

  

It was the first live-action Pokémon movie. Online hype for that was absolutely massive. Around the time Pokémon was iirc the #1 or #2 highest selling crossmedia franchise in the world.

[LegionWrex]

2 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

  

It was the first live-action Pokémon movie. Online hype for that was absolutely massive. Around the time Pokémon was iirc the #1 or #2 highest selling crossmedia franchise in the world.

I stand by that if Detective Pikachu was just a straight up Pokemon movie (either adaptation of Red and Blue or OG anime) it would have easily crossed a billion.

[vale9001]

I think what didn't convince about Pokémon was the "americanization" of the context. When you make this with manga-anime (but in general american productions of them) Is always a flop. 

It went viral cause pikatchu is cute but then most weren't convinced by the movie.

 

A Barbie movie Is not destined to success whatever version Is but from the moment first photos from set were leaked something clicked with people. There was instant curiosity about what It could have been because of the names involved. 

[abracadabra1998]

On 6/25/2023 at 1:13 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Twin Cities Previews:

 

My Asteroid City and NHF numbers got me thinking about my inner-city bias as a resident of Minneapolis, so I spent some time today adding more theaters that better represent the twin cities metro as a whole. I think it'll make my sample more representative of a Midwest metro. Every "New" section today will therefore be N/A.

 

Indiana Jones (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 19 theaters	79	N/A	993	13621	7.29

 

Ruby Gillman (T-4):

Day: T-4	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 9 theaters	32	N/A	23	3073	0.75

 

Will update these daily until release on Thursday.

 

Insidious: Red Door (T-11):

Day: T-11	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 14 theaters	36	N/A	35	4682	0.75

 

Joy Ride (T-11):

Day: T-11, T-10	Shows	Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 16 theaters	48	N/A	25	4219	0.59
Wednesday EA: 14 theaters	14	N/A	22	1387	1.59
TOTALS:	62	N/A	47	5606	0.84

 

Barbie (T-25):

Day: T-25, T-24	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 17 theaters	64	N/A	396	10062	3.94
Wednesday EA: 6 theaters	6	N/A	658	1221	53.89
TOTALS:	70	N/A	1054	11283	9.34

 

Extremely frontloaded with previews so far, but its total is already more than Oppy.

 

Oppenheimer (T-25):

Day: T-25	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	52	N/A	834	9415	8.86

 

 

 

 

Twin Cities Previews:

 

Insidious: Red Door (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 14 theaters	36	43	78	4679	1.67

 

Comp:

2.82x Beast: $2.6M

 

Not a very good comp, I'll have a Smile comp on Sunday.

 

Joy Ride (T-7):

Day: T-7, T-6	Shows	Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 16 theaters	48	11	36	4219	0.85
Wednesday EA: 17 theaters	17	15	37	1637	2.26
TOTALS:	65	26	73	5856	1.25

 

Oppenheimer (T-21):

Day: T-21	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	53	121	955	9415	10.14

 

 

Barbie (T-21):

Day: T-21, T-20	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 17 theaters	66	318	714	10138	7.04
Wednesday EA: 6 theaters	6	97	755	1221	61.83
TOTALS:	72	415	1469	11359	12.93

 

Comps:

1.54x Oppenheimer

2.02x Mission Impossible 7 (Total)

[vale9001]

Deadline It's giving 80-100 for Barbie and 50M for Nolan

 

 

 

 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

 

INSIDIOUS: THE RED DOOR

 

THURSDAY

 

T-8

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
59	242	9738	2.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

40

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-8

 

(1.940x) of BOOGEYMAN

~$2.1M THUR Previews

 

Should be enough for $20M+ OW so I agree with @el sid

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

 

INSIDIOUS: THE RED DOOR

 

THURSDAY

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
59	262	9738	2.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

20

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

COMPS

T-7

 

(1.795x) of BOOGEYMAN

~$2M THUR Previews

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

OPPENHEIMER

 

THURSDAY previews

 

T-22

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
78	1140	13845	8.2%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

36

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-22

 

(0.894x) of Fast X

~$6.7M THUR Previews

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

OPPENHEIMER

 

THURSDAY previews

 

T-21

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
78	1130	13845	8.2%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

*1 Showing removed

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS

T-21

 

(0.867x) of Fast X

~$6.5M THUR Previews

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Barbie

 

Thursday

 

T-22

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
131	1759	24279	7.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

48

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

 

EA

T-21

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
9	1301	1747	74.5%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

24

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

5

 

 

COMPS

T-22

*Excludes any EA

 

(1.752x) of RoTB

~$15.4M THUR Previews

 

(1.380x) of Fast X

~$10.3M THUR Previews

 

(0.727x) of ATSV

~$12.6M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $12.8M THUR Previews 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Barbie

 

Thursday

 

T-21

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
131	1839	24279	7.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

80

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

 

EA

T-20

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
9	1337	1747	76.5%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

36

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

5

 

 

COMPS

T-21

*Excludes any EA

 

(1.748x) of RoTB

~$15.4M THUR Previews

 

(1.410x) of Fast X

~$10.6M THUR Previews

 

(0.723x) of ATSV

~$12.5M THUR Previews

 

Comps AVG: $12.8M THUR Previews 

[Daf]

1 hour ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

  

It was the first live-action Pokémon movie. Online hype for that was absolutely massive. Around the time Pokémon was iirc the #1 or #2 highest selling crossmedia franchise in the world.

Ok sure, but even the actual Detective Pikachu game only sold like half a million when mainline Pokemon titles do like 15 milllion. It's the Ewok Adventure of the Pokemon franchise. Or more like "Lando Calrissean: Private Eye in Hawaii."

 

I'll stop the derail but I thought I'd finally gotten over the ridiculousness of that movie's existence but it still has some surprises for me!

[Bobzaruni]

Based on comps overall, I think it'll be around 85M-105M with 12M-13.5M~ Previews and a 7-8x IM.

However, it could be higher if it ramps up in non-EA, I think the ATSV comp of 15M~ Previews based on the Sacto market with an 8x IM for a 120M OW is a decent ceiling for now since it accounts for a massive review bump/ticket rush a few days out. 

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One

 

Tuesday

 

T-13

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
186	1137	37608	3.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

105

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

EA

T-12

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
11	562	2148	26.2%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

9

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

 

Mi7 Walmart+ Special 

 

MTC1 = 36 sold / 291 seats  (+5)

MTC2 = 31 sold / 114 seats  (+0)

 

COMPS

T-13

*Excludes any EA

(0.834x) of RoTB

~$7.3M TUES

 

(0.569x) of INDY 5

???

 

Finally a great day. Post social media embargo definitely helped 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One

 

Tuesday

 

T-12 *1 Showing removed 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
186	1095	37608	2.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

EA

T-11

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
11	569	2148	26.2%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

7

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

 

Mi7 Walmart+ Special 

 

MTC1 = 36 sold / 291 seats  (+0)

MTC2 = 33 sold / 114 seats  (+2)

 

COMPS

T-12

*Excludes any EA

 

(0.788x) of RoTB

~$6.9M TUES

 

(0.531x) of INDY 5

???

[Bobzaruni]

6 minutes ago, Bobzaruni said:

Based on comps overall, I think it'll be around 85M-105M with 12M-13.5M~ Previews and a 7-8x IM.

However, it could be higher if it ramps up in non-EA, I think the ATSV comp of 15M~ Previews based on the Sacto market with an 8x IM for a 120M OW is a decent ceiling for now since it accounts for a massive review bump/ticket rush a few days out. 

@M37 Sorry to disturb you, but for the Barbie's IM, is there a decent chance it could go over 8x Previews (incl. EA), or is 7x-8x the correct general range for it?