The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Eric is Quiet]

23 hours ago, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

Doctor Strange 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-22 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	234	8315	45297	18.36%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 162

 

Batman comp arrives tomorrow!

Doctor Strange 2 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-21 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	234	8530	45297	18.83%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 215

 

Comp

2.366x of The Batman T-21 (51.11M)

 

Before people ask, yes this includes the Tuesday and Wednesday sneaks

[charlie Jatinder]

Alpha looks like $6M ish previews. 

[filmlover]

Wasn't checking into it too much but walk-up sales for Fantastic Beasts were rather miserable-looking around here. The 7:30 show at one typically super busy theater had sold about 50 seats sold in the afternoon and had got up to around 70 by the time showtime started (the other non-PLF showings also saw attendance on the low side). Looking semi-ominous tomorrow as well, with plenty of afternoon shows either having very few people in them or still completely empty.

 

Sonic is selling a ton (and even filling up) plenty of shows in the afternoon though business unsurprisingly goes down as the day goes on given the family audience. Your reminder to not be alarmed when it inevitably sees a notable drop on Saturday due to schools being off for the Good Friday.

[Menor the Destroyer]

I was attempting a full Harkins run for FB2 but met with disastrous failure and then didn't have time to plug stuff into my script. But the Alpha numbers seem like 5.8m to me. 

 

Actually it's only 20% ahead of Ghostbusters, which also had decent MTC2 strength, but then regionals are stronger, so guess I will stick with 5.7ish. 

Edited April 15, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-22 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	329	31963	40910	8947	21.87%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

168

 

Multiverse of Madness has sold...

BW:	9196	97.29%	13.45
SC:	5847	153.02%	13.47
LTBC:	7712	116.01%	13.46
ET:	6409	139.60%	13.26
NWH:	28183	31.75%	15.87
Batsy:	11757	76.10%	16.44

 

Regal:     1958/10901  [17.96% sold]
Matinee:    489/4632  [10.56% | 5.47% of all tickets sold]

 

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-21 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	329	31774	40908	9134	22.33%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

187

 

Multiverse of Madness has sold...

	Final Sold	% of Final	Est Gross
BW:	9196	99.33%	13.73
SC:	5847	156.22%	13.75
LTBC:	7712	118.44%	13.74
ET:	6409	142.52%	13.54
NWH:	28183	32.41%	16.20
Batsy:	11757	77.69%	16.78

 

Regal:     2001/10901  [18.36% sold]
Matinee:    513/4632  [11.08% | 5.62% of all tickets sold]

[Issac Newton]

Full Form of ET? Extra-Terrestrial? Comps with 1982 film? Very Cool!!

[ImNotRacistAtAll]

4 hours ago, Pinacolada said:

Not that it will be a hit but I wonder if George Miller's Three Thousand Years of Longing could pull a Blackkklansman and come out in August after its Cannes debut. Could help pad out August.

 

I'm surprised none of the studios are launching a blockbuster on Labor Day after Shang Chi blew up that weekend last year. I would've expected that to become a prime weekend, but it looks like nothing is there right now.

I would like to see Pixar making it one of their dates.

I would like to see a Pixar movie every Labor Day. 

 

 

 

 

[DAJK]

It's late, I'm tried, looking at a screen is making my eyes hurt, so I'm going to skip posting all my comps tonight. Basically, Vancouver/Victoria area suggests 6.7M previews. 

[MrHardapple]

I hope Father Stu will do good numbers during the easter holidays.

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

Full Form of ET? Extra-Terrestrial? Comps with 1982 film? Very Cool!!

 

Oh, trust me, I realized the potential pitfalls surrounding that abbreviation for Eternals about 2 seconds into thinking about what to use for it.  Then after about 5 minutes of thinking it over I decided there wasn't anything better and to just roll with it. 👍

 

Spoiler

Besides, that 1982 film is abbreviated as E.T. not ET. 😛

 

Edited April 15, 2022 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

Fantastic Beasts: Secret of Dumbledore Harkins California and Phoenix 4
 

California ~ 1400

Phoenix 4 ~ 2120

Total ~ 3520

Comps

0.45x of Eternals - $4.3M

0.9x of Sonic 2 THU - $4.6M

0.73x of Morbius - $4.2M

1.14X of Uncharted - $4.2M

 

These are some really low comps but Phoenix is better than CA and CA is pulling comps down a lot. Eternals and Sonic will be $5.5-5.75M from Phoenix comp. So I will probably rely on that. I guess $5-5.5M.

[snarkmachine]

24 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Fantastic Beasts: Secret of Dumbledore Harkins California and Phoenix 4
 

California ~ 1400

Phoenix 4 ~ 2120

Total ~ 3520

Comps

0.45x of Eternals - $4.3M

0.9x of Sonic 2 THU - $4.6M

0.73x of Morbius - $4.2M

1.14X of Uncharted - $4.2M

 

These are some really low comps but Phoenix is better than CA and CA is pulling comps down a lot. Eternals and Sonic will be $5.5-5.75M from Phoenix comp. So I will probably rely on that. I guess $5-5.5M.

 

If that's true, it's definitely going sub 40 😩

[el sid]

On 4/14/2022 at 7:34 AM, MadGoose said:

@el sid I don't understand how TSoD is seemingly selling better than Sonic 2 at the theaters you're tracking when that one opened with 71 million, it is overindexing somehow? 

First of all Sonic 2 must have had good walk-ups in my theaters/in general. I expected around 60-65M OW and not over 70M.

And second, the jumps in the last week are the most important ones and Sonic 2 had the way better jump till Wednesday (88% since Monday, so around 40%+ per day) and FB 3 jumped only 15% since Tuesday. I didn't count yesterday but I guess Sonic 2 would have been in front due to its better jumps.

Still the presales and jumps of FB 3 looked solid, just not as good as those of Sonic 2.

[john2000]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-firestarter-first-look-doctor-strange-in-the-multiverse-of-madness-tracking-climbs/

 

he Bad Guys	$10,000,000 – $15,000,000		$40,000,000 – $60,000,000		Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation
4/22/2022	The Northman	$5,000,000 – $10,000,000	+15%	$12,000,000 – $25,000,000	+13%	Focus Features
4/22/2022	The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent	$8,000,000 – $13,000,000		$16,000,000 – $36,000,000		Lionsgate
4/29/2022	Memory	$2,000,000 – $5,000,000		$5,000,000 – $15,000,000		Briarcliff Entertainment / Open Road Films
5/6/2022	Around the World in 80 Days					Viva Kids
5/6/2022	Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness	$170,000,000 – $205,000,000	+2%	$425,000,000 – $535,000,000

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 4/8/2022 at 10:58 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Theaters	Shows	Change	Standard	PLF	IMAX	3D
Sonic the Hedgehog 2	3,410	111,276		104,197	7,079	0	0
Morbius	3,171	59,184	-55.88%	58,355	829	31	0
The Lost City	2,999	37,829	-38.74%	37,721	108	0	0
Ambulance	2,947	51,310		45,532	5,778	4,240	0
The Batman	2,671	28,308	-35.77%	28,245	63	0	0
Uncharted	1,816	19,755	-33.95%	19,719	36	0	0
EEAAO	1060	15424		15424	0	0	0
Dog	816	6,075	-61.00%	6,073	2	0	0
Jujutsu Kaisen 0	806	6,100	-69.87%	6,095	5	0	0
Spider-Man NWH	707	4,497	-57.33%	4,474	23	0	17
X	462	2,379	-77.61%	2,379	0	0	0
CODA	357	2,586	-54.39%	2,586	0	0	0
The Contractor	334	2,455	-61.38%	2,450	5	0	0
Sing 2	398	2,441	-75.28%	2,441	0	0	0
Mothering Sunday	259	2,854		2,854	0	0	0
All the Old Knives	206	2,434		2,434	0	0	0
RRR	282	2,180	-70.98%	2,147	33	0	22

 

US showtime sample for 4/8/22 weekend

 

OW shows comps

Sonic 2 (EA) - 750

 - Death on the Nile (EA) - 824

 - Sing 2 (EA) - 1140

Sonic 2 - 111,276 (3,410 TC)

 - Eternals - 118,603 (3,436)

 - Ghostbusters - 117,504 (3,243)

 - Jungle Cruise - 94,654 (3,334)

Ambulance - 51,310 (2,947 TC)

 - West Side Story - 54,697 (2,479)

 - Dog - 48,752 (3,099)

 - Death on the Nile - 56,756 (2,935)

 

T-1 Week

Father Stu (3-day) - 14,226 (1,388 TC)

 - Nightmare Alley - 14,207 (1,231)

 - Copshop - 16,693 (1,519)

 - Studio 666 - 13,939 (1,254)

Father Stu (5-day) - 29,612 (2,001 TC)

 - King's Man (5-day) - 42,918 (2,456)

Secrets of Dumbledore - 64,819 (2,899 TC) (10,789 PLF shows)

 - No Time to Die - 63,789 (2,910) (6,173 IMAX)

 - Eternals - 69,532 (2,852) (20,480 PLF shows)

 - Ghostbusters - 63,866 (2,826) (11,665 PLF shows)

 

T-2 Week Previews

The Bad Guys - 4,606 (1,929 TC) (381 PLF shows)

 - Clifford - 4,120 (1,310) (757 PLF)

 - Lost City - 5,838 (2,142) (648 PLF)

The Northman - 2,084 (1,392 TC) (180 PLF shows)

 - Moonfall- 2,260 (1,111) (715 PLF)

 - Death on the Nile - 2,077 (790) (656 PLF)

 

T-4 Week Previews

Doctor Strange 2 - 26,823 (2,402 TC) (6,955 PLF shows)

 - Venom 2 - 12,067 (1,934) (2,326 PLF)

 

   T-3 week comp

 - Batman - 21,077 (2,439) (2,426 PLF)

Movie	Theaters	Shows	Change	Standard	PLF	IMAX	3D
Fantastic Beasts 3	3,417	108,862		95,736	13,126	4,836	0
Sonic the Hedgehog 2	3,238	75,250	-32.38%	74,275	975	0	0
Morbius	2,711	31,147	-47.37%	31,085	62	0	0
Ambulance	2,814	31,071	-39.44%	30,989	82	15	0
The Lost City	2,719	30,657	-18.96%	30,581	76	0	0
Father Stu	2,358	27,690		27,631	59	0	0
Everything Everywhere	1,941	22,124	43.44%	22,111	13	0	0
The Batman	2,005	17,220	-39.17%	17,173	47	0	0
Uncharted	1,013	7,413	-62.48%	7,413	0	0	0
K.G.F Chapter 2	500	5,757		5,757	0	0	0
Beast	281	2,396		2,396	0	0	0
Dual	144	1,904		1,904	0	0	0
Jujutsu Kaisen 0	237	1,605	-73.69%	1,605	0	0	0
Dog	214	1,418	-76.66%	1,418	0	0	0
Spider-Man NWH	205	1,176	-73.85%	1,170	6	0	6
CODA	165	1,143	-55.80%	1,143	0	0	0
Sing 2	104	591	-75.79%	587	4	0	4
X	125	519	-78.18%	519	0	0	0

US showtime sample for 4/15/22 weekend

 

OW shows comps

Father Stu (3-day) - 27,690 (2,358 TC)

 - King's Men (3-day) - 29,825 (2,800)

 - Stillwater - 28,558 (2,337)

Father Stu (5-day) - 45,982 (2,358)

 - King's Man (5-day) - 56,129 (2,800)

Secrets of Dumbledore - 108,862 (3,417 TC) (13,126 PLF shows)

 - No Time to Die - 112,174 (3,529) (6,225 IMAX)

 - Eternals - 118,603 (3,436) (20,500 PLF shows)

 - Ghostbusters - 117,504 (3,243) (12,905 PLF shows)

 - Sonic 2 - 111,276 (3,410) (13,126 PLF shows)

The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent (4/16 EA) - 129 (128 TC)

 

T-1 Week Previews Comps

The Bad Guys - 33,122 (2,264 TC) (3,083 PLF shows)

 - Addams Family - 33,520 (2,461)

The Northman - 22,383 (1,935 TC) (1,847 PLF shows)

 - Last Night in Soho - 20,306 (1,787 TC) (1,698 PLF)

 - The 355 - 21,633 (1,838 TC) (2,499 PLF)

 - Blacklight - 19,740 (1,627 TC)

 - X - 19,249 (1,746 TC)

The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent - 21,853 (1,815 TC) (56 PLF)

 (See above)

 

T-3 Week Previews

Doctor Strange 2 - 30,203 (2,704 TC) (7,303 PLF shows)

 - Batman - 21,077 (2,439) (2,426 PLF)

 

   T-2 week comp

 - Spider-Man - 26,573 (2,835 TC) (4,775 PLF shows)

[Noctis]

When do numbers come out

[filmlover]

2 hours ago, john2000 said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-firestarter-first-look-doctor-strange-in-the-multiverse-of-madness-tracking-climbs/

 

he Bad Guys	$10,000,000 – $15,000,000		$40,000,000 – $60,000,000		Universal Pictures / DreamWorks Animation
4/22/2022	The Northman	$5,000,000 – $10,000,000	+15%	$12,000,000 – $25,000,000	+13%	Focus Features
4/22/2022	The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent	$8,000,000 – $13,000,000		$16,000,000 – $36,000,000		Lionsgate
4/29/2022	Memory	$2,000,000 – $5,000,000		$5,000,000 – $15,000,000		Briarcliff Entertainment / Open Road Films
5/6/2022	Around the World in 80 Days					Viva Kids
5/6/2022	Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness	$170,000,000 – $205,000,000	+2%	$425,000,000 – $535,000,000

They just added Firestarter as well.

 

5/13/2022	Firestarter	$8,000,000 – $13,000,000		$18,000,000 – $33,000,000		Universal Pictures

[Eric is Quiet]

6 minutes ago, Noctis said:

When do numbers come out

About two hours from now

[BruiseCruise]

https://www.the-numbers.com/news/251700830-2022-market-prediction-latest-numbers-point-to-6-7-billion-domestic-market-in-2022

[Joyous Legion]

5 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

https://www.the-numbers.com/news/251700830-2022-market-prediction-latest-numbers-point-to-6-7-billion-domestic-market-in-2022

Just comically bad