The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[BruiseCruise]

PIxar employees gonna storm Chapeks office on on Tuesday

[XXR vs XXR]

51 minutes ago, crazymoviekid said:

Friday Only Comparison:

Jurassic World: Dominion: $65.6 mil 

Lightyear: $73.4 mil

The Bad Guys: $15.95 mil

 

The Bad Guys opened during Spring Break in my area and over-indexed, so, given these numbers, I'm feeling it is the most comparable.

Your theaters make no sense 🤣

Edited July 1, 2022 by StormbreakerXXR

[crazymoviekid]

7 minutes ago, StormbreakerXXR said:

Your theaters make no sense 🤣

I know😂😂. For the last two months, almost every movie has followed an appropriate pattern. The only two outliers have been The Bad Guys and Minions 2. 

[keysersoze123]

Minions thursday final - 177617/829486 2693932.53 4610 shows

 

WOW. what a final day for the yellow monsters. I think low 9s previews are my final prediction. Insane final day for sure. 

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

At 5:45 PM PST, 17,163/83,156 (331 showings) $189,136

 

As expected solid walkins. Will be going over 20K final.

At 10 PM, its 22720/83149 (331 showings) $254,321 🔥

Edited July 1, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[John Marston]

1 hour ago, BruiseCruise said:

PIxar employees gonna storm Chapeks office on on Tuesday

 

why? They are the ones that made a film that nobody wanted 

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, StormbreakerXXR said:

Your theaters make no sense 🤣

 

*checks to see if I can find a random example locally*

 

Local Theater Which Shall Remain Nameless:

JWD:          1000 Thursday tickets sold

Minions 2:    913 Thursday tickets sold

 

Other Local Theater Which Shall Remain Nameless:

JWD:            504 Thursday tickets sold

Minions 2:    397 Thursday tickets sold

 

 

Not quite the same thing, and I'm cherry picking in the extreme (for instance the local TrueIMAX was 283 for JWD vs 8 for Minions 2 [no, not kidding about the "8"), and most other theaters had JWD winning quite handily.  But in the areas with lots of suburbanites?  Or places with lots of families?  I could see it.  Extreme end of the random distribution scale to be sure, but I could see it.

[Eric the IF]

On 6/30/2022 at 12:34 AM, Eric the Minion said:

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	185	6464	34527	18.26%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 159

 

Comp

0.362x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-8 (18.11M)

1.121x of The Batman T-8 (24.21M)

0.578x of Doctor Strange 2 T-8 (20.82M)

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	185	6729	34527	19.49%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 265

 

Comp

0.366x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-7 (18.32M)

1.126x of The Batman T-7 (24.32M)

0.567x of Doctor Strange 2 T-7 (20.47M)

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Minions thursday final - 177617/829486 2693932.53 4610 shows

 

WOW. what a final day for the yellow monsters. I think low 9s previews are my final prediction. Insane final day for sure. 

 

SACRAMENTO — THE REDEMPTION TOUR BEGINS HERE!!!!! 

 

(subject to, you know, actually being in the low 9s )

 

 

[titanic2187]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Minions thursday final - 177617/829486 2693932.53 4610 shows

 

WOW. what a final day for the yellow monsters. I think low 9s previews are my final prediction. Insane final day for sure. 

This is the best walk ups on preview day since V2 I guess? At this stage, even 100m 3 days is not a crazy estimate. 

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, Eric the Minion said:

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	185	6729	34527	19.49%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 265

 

Comp

0.366x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-7 (18.32M)

1.126x of The Batman T-7 (24.32M)

0.567x of Doctor Strange 2 T-7 (20.47M)

Interesting it went down against DS2 in phily though denver and couple of other updates put it higher. Do you have break up of how many MTC1/2/3 theaters you are tracking. 

[Eric the IF]

On 6/30/2022 at 12:36 AM, Eric the Minion said:

Nope Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-22 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	65	228	13040	1.75%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 9

 

Comp

0.530x of F9 T-22 (3.76M)

Nope Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-21 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	65	243	13040	1.86%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 15

 

Comp

0.494x of F9 T-21 (3.51M)

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

SACRAMENTO — THE REDEMPTION TOUR BEGINS HERE!!!!! 

 

(subject to, you know, actually being in the low 9s )

 

 

Porthos analyzing the numbers. 

 

https://tenor.com/XC1U.gif

 

 

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

10 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

This is the best walk ups on preview day since V2 I guess? At this stage, even 100m 3 days is not a crazy estimate. 

The Black Phone IMO is the winner in relative jumps, though in terms of volume Minions.

Edited July 1, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Porthos analyzing the numbers. 

 

https://tenor.com/XC1U.gif

nope. he do something like this.

 

When you said 160K final from mid day and I said around 20k, he started doing this and see, your number hit 178k and mine is already 22.2k.

Edited July 1, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[Jiffy]

Had a feeling this could over-deliver.

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

At 10 PM, its 22720/83149 (331 showings) $254,321 🔥

Minions: The Rise of Gru Harkins Final

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
331	83,149	23,033	27.70%	$257,990	$11.20

 

Excellent final day, adding over 16K. Actual gross shall be around $230K approx, which will normally be $10-12M but this seems to be over-indexing region. If Harkins is performing like this, we can assume Cinemark is too.

 

Comps

0.65x Jurassic World: Dominion - $11.6M (ATP adj gives $10.4M)

1.65x Lightyear - $9.6M (taking Lightyear $5.8M, ATP adj gives $9M)

1.94x Sonic 2 - $12.1M (ATP adj gives $11M)

 

Comps are all very high. The main purpose of tracking Harkins is to estimate non-MTCs. Doing that, I am coming around $9.3M approx previews. So let's take $9-9.5M.

[charlie Jatinder]

3 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

*checks to see if I can find a random example locally*

 

Local Theater Which Shall Remain Nameless:

JWD:          1000 Thursday tickets sold

Minions 2:    913 Thursday tickets sold

 

Other Local Theater Which Shall Remain Nameless:

JWD:            504 Thursday tickets sold

Minions 2:    397 Thursday tickets sold

 

 

Not quite the same thing, and I'm cherry picking in the extreme (for instance the local TrueIMAX was 283 for JWD vs 8 for Minions 2 [no, not kidding about the "8"), and most other theaters had JWD winning quite handily.  But in the areas with lots of suburbanites?  Or places with lots of families?  I could see it.  Extreme end of the random distribution scale to be sure, but I could see it.

I am gonna name the theaters. 🤯

 

Northfield 18

JWD - 909

Minions 2 - 1109

 

Santan Village 16

JWD - 1186

Minions 2 - 1347

 

These two are the ones that overtake JWD. Few others were close.

 

 

[Porthos]

On 6/27/2022 at 12:59 AM, Porthos said:

 

Nope Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-25 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	84	13508	13704	196	1.43%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Thursday

20

 

Regal:     36/3969  [0.91% sold]
Matinee:      7/863  [0.81% | 3.57% of all tickets sold]

 

Nope Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-21 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	84	13461	13704	243	1.77%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Sunday

47

 

T-21 Comps

	%		Sold T-21	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	44.26		78	549		0/92	13434/13983	3.93%		4407	5.47%		3.29m
TSS	114.62		34	212		0/81	13740/13952	1.52%		2352	10.33%		4.70m

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Nope's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     39/3969  [0.98% sold]
Matinee:      7/863  [0.81% | 2.88% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Switching back to daily reports, starting tonight.  Also roping in a couple of comps, as bad as they are.  Don't exactly have many good ones.  Only other one I have on my home sheet is AQP II (adj) which is currently comping at 4.28m, but I'm shying away from that for right now for a variety of reasons.  Might bring it in later though. 

 

If anyone has any suggestions for comps, be open to hear them, though my options at T-21 aren't exactly great.  NTTD starts at T-20, so that could be a possibility.  And I suppose I could hold my nose and bring in Sonic 2, only because horror films are notoriously backloaded and just make a mental note that the comp will probably be higher for far more adult tickets sold.  But aside from that, my options ain't exactly grand right now.

[Porthos]

On 6/29/2022 at 11:58 PM, Porthos said:

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	237	24680	32614	7934	24.33%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

284

 

T-8 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NWH	43.52		390	18229		0/325	20891/39120	46.60%		28183	28.15%		21.76m
Batman	153.11		206	5182		0/297	31608/36790	14.09%		11757	67.48%		33.07m
MoM	65.62		397	12090		0/353	30586/42676	28.33%		21117	37.57%		23.62m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Love and Thunder's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-8 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	205.70		204	3473		0/151	19486/22959	15.13%		9196	86.28%		28.43m
L&T (adj)			-190	7144		0/197	20176/27320	26.15%

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  L&T (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in BW's track.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:        810/4831  [16.77% sold]
Matinee:    378/2566  [14.73% | 4.76% of all tickets sold]

 

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	24544	32818	8274	25.21%

 

Total Showings Added Today	3
Total Seats Added Today	204
Total Seats Sold Today	340

 

T-7 Comps

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	216.94		151	3814		0/177	21748/25562	14.92%		9196	89.97%		29.99m
NWH	44.31		445	18674		0/325	20446/39120	47.74%		28183	29.36%		22.15m
MoM	65.89		467	12557		0/353	30123/42680	29.42%		21117	39.18%		23.72m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Love and Thunder's current tickets sold versus that final number.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:         855/4831  [17.70% sold]
Matinee:    406/2566  [15.82% | 4.91% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

No longer have to adjust for Black Widow anymore, as by this point in the track I had fully reliable seat maps.  Also decided to jettison The Batman comp as it really isn't worthwhile anymore, if it ever was.  DC and Marvel just play too differently here (at least the 'darker' DC titles) for it to still be of any use.  So just sticking with these three Marvel films and we'll see where it lands in the end.