The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Rorschach]

Minions: The Rise of Gru (Wednesday Night Outlook)
Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX
    Thursday:
    IMAX showings: 25/1,552
        2:00 pm: 16/388
        4:35 pm: 0/388
        7:10 pm: 4/388
        9:45 pm: 5/388
    2D showings: 228/1,254
        2:50 pm: 42/135
        3:40 pm: 18/238
        5:25 pm: 27/135
        6:15 pm: 57/238
        8:00 pm: 40/135
        8:50 pm: 15/238
        10:35 pm: 29/135
    Total: 253/2,806 (9% sold)

 

Comps:
Jungle Cruise: $11.39 mil
Encanto: $14.6 mil
Sonic the Hedgehog 2: $8.64 mil
Lightyear: $13.56 mil
Average: $12.05 mil

 

    Friday:
    IMAX showings: 66/1,940
        11:00 am: 9/388
        1:40 pm: 12/388
        4:20 pm: 11/388
        7:00 pm: 34/388
        9:40 pm: 0/388
    3D showings: 35/234
        10:20 am: 5/78
        3:40 pm: 7/78
        6:20 pm: 23/78
    2D showings: 273/1,244
        9:45 am: 27/67
        11:40 am: 52/135
        12:20 pm: 12/67
        1:00 pm: 21/78
        2:20 pm: 15/135
        3:00 pm: 16/78
        5:00 pm: 17/135
        5:40 pm: 28/67
        7:40 pm: 39/135
        8:20 pm: 20/67
        9:00 pm: 8/78
        10:20 pm: 1/135
        11:00 pm: 17/67
    Total: 374/3,418 (10.9% sold)

 

Thurs + Fri: 627/6,224 (2.1% sold)

 

Comps:
Jungle Cruise: $43.5 mil
Encanto: $41.91 mil
Sonic the Hedgehog 2: $26.09 mil
Lightyear: $52.56 mil
Average: $41.02 mil

 

The Sonic 2 comps line up pretty well with this so that's about the range I expect this will land.

[keysersoze123]

On 6/28/2022 at 7:11 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Minions MTC1 Thursday Previews - 48520/782266 771457.14 4249 shows.

 

Really good day. Obviously Actual $ gross is lower due to child tickets. I am thinking 6-7m previews at this point. 

Minions MTC1 Thursday Previews(T-1) - 70420/826756 1097376.98 4561 shows

 

It increased less than what I expected. I would reduce 10% from $ value and so not expecting more than 7m from previews. but real action will happen from friday.  

 

Edit: on second thoughts I could be pessimistic. So ignore my projections. Let us see how walkups go tomorrow. Release is very big. 

Edited June 30, 2022 by keysersoze123

[Eric Loves Rey]

15 hours ago, Eric the Minion said:

Minions: The Rise of Gru Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	166	967	33151	2.92%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 302

 

Comp

4.063x of Jungle Cruise T-2 (10.97M)

0.545x of Sonic the Hedgehog 2 T-2 (3.41M)

1.210x of Lightyear T-2 (6.29M)

Minions: The Rise of Gru Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	173	1518	33844	4.49%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 551

 

Comp

4.850x of Jungle Cruise T-1 (13.09M)

0.626x of Sonic the Hedgehog 2 T-1 (3.91M)

1.381x of Lightyear T-1 (7.18M)

[Eric Loves Rey]

15 hours ago, Eric the Minion said:

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	185	6305	34527	18.26%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 169

 

Comp

0.361x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-9 (18.07M)

1.137x of The Batman T-9 (24.55M)

0.584x of Doctor Strange 2 T-9 (21.04M)

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	185	6464	34527	18.26%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 159

 

Comp

0.362x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-8 (18.11M)

1.121x of The Batman T-8 (24.21M)

0.578x of Doctor Strange 2 T-8 (20.82M)

[Eric Loves Rey]

15 hours ago, Eric the Minion said:

Nope Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-23 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	65	219	13040	1.68%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 10

 

Comp

0.782x of F9 T-23 (5.55M)

 

Look! A comp!

Nope Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-22 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	65	228	13040	1.75%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 9

 

Comp

0.530x of F9 T-22 (3.76M)

[Porthos]

On 6/28/2022 at 11:43 PM, Porthos said:

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	237	24964	32614	7650	23.46%

 

Total Showings Added Today	9
Total Seats Added Today	1017
Total Seats Sold Today	288

 

T-9 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NWH	42.88		424	17839		0/311	20218/38057	46.87%		28183	27.14%		21.44m
Batman	159.34		168	4801		0/297	31989/36790	13.05%		11757	65.07%		34.42m
MoM	65.42		403	11693		0/353	30983/42676	27.40%		21117	36.23%		23.55m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Love and Thunder's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-9 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-9	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	223.94		171	3079		0/122	16185/19264	15.98%		9196	83.19%		30.95m
L&T (adj)			249	6895		0/197	20425/27320	25.24%

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  L&T (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in BW's track.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:         759/4831  [15.71% sold]
Matinee:    359/2566  [13.99% | 4.69% of all tickets sold]

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	237	24680	32614	7934	24.33%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

284

 

T-8 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NWH	43.52		390	18229		0/325	20891/39120	46.60%		28183	28.15%		21.76m
Batman	153.11		206	5182		0/297	31608/36790	14.09%		11757	67.48%		33.07m
MoM	65.62		397	12090		0/353	30586/42676	28.33%		21117	37.57%		23.62m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Love and Thunder's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-8 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	205.70		204	3473		0/151	19486/22959	15.13%		9196	86.28%		28.43m
L&T (adj)			-190	7144		0/197	20176/27320	26.15%

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  L&T (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in BW's track.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:        810/4831  [16.77% sold]
Matinee:    378/2566  [14.73% | 4.76% of all tickets sold]

 

[Porthos]

On 6/28/2022 at 11:45 PM, Porthos said:

 

Minions 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	214	27446	30180	2734	9.06%

 

Total Showings Added Today	26
Total Seats Added Today	2538
Total Seats Sold Today	829

 

T-2 Comp

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
GB:A	181.06		333	1510		0/178	21594/23104	6.54%		3034	90.11%		8.15m
Sonic 2	130.44		466	2096		0/119	13278/15374	13.63%		3951	69.20%		8.15m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Minions 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:        381/6262  [6.08% sold]
Matinee:    312/3398  [9.18% | 11.41% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

L-O-L. 

 

A reminder, once again, that family movies, especially ones that are kid-focused, are really backloaded.

 

Minions 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	214	26160	30180	4020	13.32%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

1286

 

T-1 Comp

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
GB:A	193.27		570	2080		0/192	22169/24249	8.58%		3034	132.50%		8.70m
Sonic 2	139.44		787	2883		0/125	12991/15874	18.16%		3951	101.75%		8.71m
FB3	132.59		637	3032		0/207	24756/27788	10.91%		4456	90.22%		7.96m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Minions 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:        603/6262  [9.63% sold]
Matinee:    521/3398  [15.33% | 12.96% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Added FB3 as a comp.  Not because I think it's a particularly great one (though at least it's family-ish), but because it pretty heavily over-performed in Sacto, so I think it could be a useful control/floor for factoring in kids tickets/Minions 2 running hot here.

 

Also, frankly, FB3 is the only other 2pm preview start I have, and I'm a little worried about my sampling methodology.  I'm going to be grabbing 4pm start times and with Minions 2  having such a short run time, that could be the second screening on a few of the showings.  But I really can't pull my final sample much earlier, as then I run into problems in the other direction.  So bringing in FB3 will help at least a little there.

 

That even FB3 is currently pointing to 8m is... interesting, though I can't guarantee it'll also do that tomorrow (as Minions 2 would need to sell around 1850+ tickets tomorrow to keep a 8m-ish pace against FB3 at the final comp).  Still, should be interesting so why not?

Edited June 30, 2022 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

On 6/29/2022 at 12:31 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Minions: The Rise of Gru Harkins T-2 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
325	81,999	3,894	4.75%	$46,186	$11.86

 

Comps

1.11x Lightyear T-2 days - $6.1M (adj for ATP $5.4M)

 

+1396 yesterday. Big day. Way ahead of Lightyear. Probably 6.3K+ tomorrow and 19K final. That should be good for around $8M

 

 

Minions: The Rise of Gru Harkins T-1 Day

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
328	82,675	6,794	8.22%	$79,611	$11.72

 

Comps

1.28x Lightyear  - $7M (adj for ATP $6.3M)

0.47x Jurassic World: Dominion - $8.25M (adj for ATP $7.4M)

1.46x Sonic 2 - $9.1M (adj for ATP $8.7M)

 

Should hit 20K final I think. That would be putting it over $8M. Nice.

[charlie Jatinder]

21 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Thor: Love and Thunder Harkins T-9 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
459	113,952	12,234	10.74%	$155,421	$12.70

 

+414. Ok day. Could have been better but fine. Won't be able to match DSitMoM pace in next 3-4 days.

 

Comps

0.587x of DSitMoM admits - $21.1M

Thor: Love and Thunder Harkins T-8 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
496	119,100	12,682	10.65%	$159,634	$12.59

 

+448.

 

Comps

0.579x of DSitMoM admits - $20.9M

 

 

[M37]

8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Minions MTC1 Thursday Previews(T-1) - 70420/826756 1097376.98 4561 shows

 

It increased less than what I expected. I would reduce 10% from $ value and so not expecting more than 7m from previews. but real action will happen from friday.  

 

Edit: on second thoughts I could be pessimistic. So ignore my projections. Let us see how walkups go tomorrow. Release is very big. 

Not sure what you had in mind before the run, but a +45% from T-2 to T-1 is still a significant high end outlier for growth (and in line with other tracking samples updated today). According to what you posted for Venom, it "only" had 33% growth for that same period, then doubled to T-Final, and Lightyear was +30% for that same period per @ZackM's Alpha numbers. Minions should continue to outpace both, more than double tomorrow, so 150K+final

 

5 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Minions 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	214	26160	30180	4020	13.32%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

1286

 

T-1 Comp

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
GB:A	193.27		570	2080		0/192	22169/24249	8.58%		3034	132.50%		8.70m
Sonic 2	139.44		787	2883		0/125	12991/15874	18.16%		3951	101.75%		8.71m
FB3	132.59		637	3032		0/207	24756/27788	10.91%		4456	90.22%		7.96m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Minions 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:        603/6262  [9.63% sold]
Matinee:    521/3398  [15.33% | 12.96% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Added FB3 as a comp.  Not because I think it's a particularly great one (though at least it's family-ish), but because it pretty heavily over-performed in Sacto, so I think it could be a useful control/floor for factoring in kids tickets/Minions 2 running hot here.

 

Also, frankly, FB3 is the only other 2pm preview start I have, and I'm a little worried about my sampling methodology.  I'm going to be grabbing 4pm start times and with Minions 2  having such a short run time, that could be the second screening on a few of the showings.  But I really can't pull my final sample much earlier, as then I run into problems in the other direction.  So bringing in FB3 will help at least a little there.

 

That even FB3 is currently pointing to 8m is... interesting, though I can't guarantee it'll also do that tomorrow (as Minions 2 would need to sell around 1850+ tickets tomorrow to keep a 8m-ish pace against FB3 at the final comp).  Still, should be interesting so why not?

Based on the pace/growth rate, Sacto should easily sell 2K plus tickets by the final checkpoint. Expecting total will be closer to 7K than 6K (6500-7000+)

 

Looking at all the data, penciling in an $8.5-$9.5M preview total for Minions, personally thinking more likely to be in the upper half of that range than the lower end (so $9M+), but do worry about a lower ATP dragging the total gross down a bit, even more than the working 10% estimate

[Alex SciChannel]

15 minutes ago, M37 said:

Not sure what you had in mind before the run, but a +45% from T-2 to T-1 is still a significant high end outlier for growth (and in line with other tracking samples updated today). According to what you posted for Venom, it "only" had 33% growth for that same period, then doubled to T-Final, and Lightyear was +30% for that same period per @ZackM's Alpha numbers. Minions should continue to outpace both, more than double tomorrow, so 150K+final

 

Based on the pace/growth rate, Sacto should easily sell 2K plus tickets by the final checkpoint. Expecting total will be closer to 7K than 6K (6500-7000+)

 

Looking at all the data, penciling in an $8.5-$9.5M preview total for Minions, personally thinking more likely to be in the upper half of that range than the lower end (so $9M+), but do worry about a lower ATP dragging the total gross down a bit, even more than the working 10% estimate

If Thursday previews end up in said range, is $100M+ 4-day practically locked?

[TwoMisfits]

10 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Now that first reactions are out, do we think this might fall under Ragnarok's OW?  

 

So, what you're saying is, reviews should drop the bottom end of my range to $120M-$150M...hmmmm...I might even agree with you b/c it sounds like this is Taika at his most Taika, which may offput some GA (of course, it will also create tons of love from some GA)...

[M37]

1 minute ago, Alex SciChannel said:

If Thursday previews end up in said range, is $100M+ 4-day practically locked?

A $9M Thursday and 11x for the 4-day would be just under $100M, so not quite confident enough to say “locked”, but even on the low end it’s going to be right on that cut line (high $90s), far more likely to go over than under based on current trajectory

The big variable IMO is TFri, not enough data in hand to be sure it gets the ~$27M needed to lock in a $100M 4-day, especially with how holidays post-pandemic have often been softer than historical trends, making Mon’s gross less certain. But if I were placing a bet, I’d take the over $100

[Alex SciChannel]

9 minutes ago, M37 said:

A $9M Thursday and 11x for the 4-day would be just under $100M, so not quite confident enough to say “locked”, but even on the low end it’s going to be right on that cut line (high $90s), far more likely to go over than under based on current trajectory

The big variable IMO is TFri, not enough data in hand to be sure it gets the ~$27M needed to lock in a $100M 4-day, especially with how holidays post-pandemic have often been softer than historical trends, making Mon’s gross less certain. But if I were placing a bet, I’d take the over $100

Minions 2, $300M+ domestic finish club?

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Malcolm List	T-1	Jax	5	8	0	2	859	0.23%
		Phx	4	7	1	4	574	0.70%
		Ral	4	6	3	7	292	2.40%
	Total		13	21	4	13	1,725	0.75%
Minions 2	T-1	Jax	7	108	172	511	17,667	2.89%
		Phx	7	79	180	564	13,089	4.31%
		Ral	8	67	207	646	8,475	7.62%
ATP: 13.9	Total		22	254	559	1,721	39,231	4.39%
Nope	T-22	Jax	7	51	0	60	8,591	0.70%
		Phx	6	20	0	93	4,344	2.14%
		Ral	8	25	16	81	3,411	2.37%
	Total		21	96	16	234	16,346	1.43%
Thor 4	T-8	Jax	7	112	105	1,992	17,265	11.54%
		Phx	6	114	128	2,496	18,369	13.59%
		Ral	8	83	92	2,250	10,995	20.46%
ATP: 14.57	Total		21	309	325	6,738	46,629	14.45%

 

Minions 2 T-1 comps

 - Sonic 2 - 1.23x (6.12m)

 - Encanto - 5.55x (8.33m)

 - Lightyear Thu - 1.46x (7.15m)*

 - Jungle Cruise - 3.73x (10.06m)

*assuming 4.9m true Thu for Lightyear

 

Just keeps chugging along.   Wouldn't be surprised with 8m or higher if it keeps up the pace.  I'll try to get a chart up if I have time today

 

Nope T-22 comps

 - JW-D - .115x (2.07m)

 - Eternals - .264x (2.51m)

 - Black Widow - .18x (2.39m)

 

Thor 4 T-8 comps

 - Dr. Strange 2 - .585x (21.06m)

 - Batman (Thu) - missed

 - No Way Home - .34x (16.77m)

 - Black Widow - 2.57x (33.97m)

 - JW3 - 2.005x (36.1m)

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Malcolm List	T-0	Jax	5	8	8	10	859	1.16%
		Phx	4	7	4	8	574	1.39%
		Ral	4	6	-2	5	292	1.71%
	Total		13	21	10	23	1,725	1.33%
Minions 2	T-0	Jax	7	109	341	852	17,944	4.75%
		Phx	7	79	381	945	13,089	7.22%
		Ral	8	67	530	1,176	8,475	13.88%
	Total		22	255	1,252	2,973	39,508	7.53%
Nope	T-21	Jax	7	51	2	62	8,591	0.72%
		Phx	6	20	1	94	4,344	2.16%
		Ral	8	25	0	81	3,411	2.37%
	Total		21	96	3	237	16,346	1.45%
Thor 4	T-7	Jax	7	112	52	2,044	17,265	11.84%
		Phx	6	114	80	2,576	18,369	14.02%
		Ral	8	83	115	2,365	10,995	21.51%
	Total		21	309	247	6,985	46,629	14.98%

 

Minions 2 T-0 comps

 - Sonic 2 - 1.696x (8.445m)

 - Encanto - 6.577x (9.866m)

 - Lightyear Thu - 1.725x (8.454m)*

 - Jungle Cruise - 4.36x (11.77m)

 - Space Jam (Friday) - .671x (8.78m)

*assuming 4.9m true Thu for Lightyear

 

I'm looking for the comps to finish around 9m this afternoon with the rate it's going.  

 

Nope T-21 comps

 - JW-D - .114x (2.06m)

 - Eternals - .241x (2.29m)

 - Black Widow - .176x (2.33m)

 - F9 - .87x (6.19m)

 

Thor 4 T-7 comps

 - Dr. Strange 2 - .583x (20.99m)

 - Batman (Thu) - 1.76x (31.03m)

 - No Way Home - .338x (16.89m)

 - Black Widow - 2.47x (32.55m)

 - JW3 - 1.93x (34.82m)

 

20 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Alright, had a chance to look at some growth rates.  The ranges are not even as I was trying to look at days where I polled all charted movies, but it works for trend purposes.  If trend continues, I'd expect my regions to be around 3,012 (+75%) tomorrow morning.  That would move the comps to 8.56m (for Sonic and Lightyear). I don't have a T-1 hr update for Sonic or Space Jam.  F9 was +25%, JC was +61.6% and Lightyear +44%

 

 

Didn't quite make it to my number, but did jump 73%.  If only I had slept 20 minutes longer.  I added a few more comps to the chart for the last update.  

 

 

I'm a little surprised that F9 had less growth on Thursday than on Wednesday.  It does likely have the oldest audience though out of this group so that may lean more towards early presales.  Looking at the other three comps, I'd expect today to at least match yesterday's sales with the possibility of up to 15% increase.  That would put the final comps in a range from 10.4m to 11.4m.

Edited June 30, 2022 by katnisscinnaplex
Incorrect range

[M37]

8 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Minions 2, $300M+ domestic finish club?

Nope. The audience/demographic factors that are helping to facilitating this massive late surge also point to weaker holds in following weeks (see Sonic 2, prev Minions). Should have a huge drop in week 2 vs Thor (like -60%), stabilize after, but won’t get even a 3x from 3-day OW. Probably closer to $250M (more than double LY though)

[Alex SciChannel]

4 minutes ago, M37 said:

The audience/demographic factors that are helping to facilitating this massive late surge also point to weaker holds in following weeks

I am curious, what audience/demographic factors specifically may cause more frontloading on a family title?

[M37]

5 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Malcolm List	T-0	Jax	5	8	8	10	859	1.16%
		Phx	4	7	4	8	574	1.39%
		Ral	4	6	-2	5	292	1.71%
	Total		13	21	10	23	1,725	1.33%
Minions 2	T-0	Jax	7	109	341	852	17,944	4.75%
		Phx	7	79	381	945	13,089	7.22%
		Ral	8	67	530	1,176	8,475	13.88%
	Total		22	255	1,252	2,973	39,508	7.53%
Nope	T-21	Jax	7	51	2	62	8,591	0.72%
		Phx	6	20	1	94	4,344	2.16%
		Ral	8	25	0	81	3,411	2.37%
	Total		21	96	3	237	16,346	1.45%
Thor 4	T-7	Jax	7	112	52	2,044	17,265	11.84%
		Phx	6	114	80	2,576	18,369	14.02%
		Ral	8	83	115	2,365	10,995	21.51%
	Total		21	309	247	6,985	46,629	14.98%

 

Minions 2 T-0 comps

 - Sonic 2 - 1.696x (8.445m)

 - Encanto - 6.577x (9.866m)

 - Lightyear Thu - 1.725x (8.454m)*

 - Jungle Cruise - 4.36x (11.77m)

 - Space Jam (Friday) - .671x (8.78m)

*assuming 4.9m true Thu for Lightyear

 

I'm looking for the comps to finish around 9m this afternoon with the rate it's going.  

 

Nope T-21 comps

 - JW-D - .114x (2.06m)

 - Eternals - .241x (2.29m)

 - Black Widow - .176x (2.33m)

 - F9 - .87x (6.19m)

 

Thor 4 T-7 comps

 - Dr. Strange 2 - .583x (20.99m)

 - Batman (Thu) - 1.76x (31.03m)

 - No Way Home - .338x (16.89m)

 - Black Widow - 2.47x (32.55m)

 - JW3 - 1.93x (34.82m)

 

 

Didn't quite make it to my number, but did jump 73%.  If only I had slept 20 minutes longer.  I added a few more comps to the chart for the last update.  

 

 

I'm a little surprised that F9 had less growth on Thursday than on Wednesday.  It does likely have the oldest audience though out of this group so that may lean more towards early presales.  Looking at the other three comps, I'd expect today to at least match yesterday's sales with the possibility of up to 15% increase.  That would put the final comps in a range from 8.6m to 9.1m.

The F&F audience is very much a late night crowd - in some markets stronger after 8/9pm than before - so a morning T-0 sample is going to pick up a lot of those sales from later Wednesday night, while a T-1hr check is going to miss a fair number for Thursday. The rest are mostly family leaning movies, so sales are more balanced by time of day, won’t have as many late Thursday sales 

[keysersoze123]

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Minions MTC1 Friday -  76708/1264045 1166869.54 6905 shows + 32603

 

Minions MTC1 Friday - 116800/1276229 1759212.34 6974 shows 

 

Another excellent day for sure.

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Minions	PLF	27	301	621	6,128	10.13%	$14.29	$8,871.11
		Standard	70	446	1,174	9,815	11.96%	$10.68	$12,539.63
	Total		97	747	1,795	15,943	11.26%	$11.93	$21,410.74
T-8	Thor 4	PLF	57	88	3,877	11,672	33.22%	$15.88	$61,551.39
		Standard	87	111	2,329	11,439	20.36%	$11.85	$27,601.71
	Total		144	199	6,206	23,111	26.85%	$14.37	$89,153.10

 

By matinee

 

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Minions	N	62	486	1,124	10,104	11.12%	$13.18	$14,819.23
		Y	35	261	671	5,839	11.49%	$9.82	$6,591.51
	Total		97	747	1,795	15,943	11.26%	$11.93	$21,410.74
T-8	Thor 4	N	103	144	4,982	16,531	30.14%	$15.01	$74,803.83
		Y	41	55	1,224	6,580	18.60%	$11.72	$14,349.27
	Total		144	199	6,206	23,111	26.85%	$14.37	$89,153.10

 

Huge jump for Minions of 71%.  All of those PLF shows that got added Monday (okay maybe not the 3D) started filling up yesterday.  

 

Minions T-1 comps

 - Sonic 2 Thu - 1.179x (5.87m)

 - Lightyear Thu - 2.18x (10.69m)

 - Bob's Burgers - 6.75x (10.12m)

 - Fantastic Beasts - 1.16x (6.97m)

 

Hasn't busted the doors off the Sonic comp, but the pace is there to get to mid 7s.  Sonic final ATP with adult prices was 12.07, so this is already losing a little there before factoring in a younger audience.  That being said, I'm expecting the biggest increase today to be in the Dolby shows so maybe it catches up.

 

Thor T-8 comps

 - No Way Home - .403x (20.17m)

 - DS2 - .586x (21.12m)

 - Batman + EA - missed (~35.65m)

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Minions	PLF	27	519	1,140	6,128	18.60%	$14.28	$16,276.92
		Standard	70	849	2,023	9,815	20.61%	$10.54	$21,319.89
	Total		97	1,368	3,163	15,943	19.84%	$11.89	$37,596.81
T-7	Thor 4	PLF	57	59	3,936	11,672	33.72%	$15.87	$62,456.38
		Standard	87	82	2,411	11,439	21.08%	$11.84	$28,549.78
	Total		144	141	6,347	23,111	27.46%	$14.34	$91,006.16

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Minions	N	62	795	1,919	10,104	18.99%	$13.16	$25,251.44
		Y	35	573	1,244	5,839	21.31%	$9.92	$12,345.37
	Total		97	1,368	3,163	15,943	19.84%	$11.89	$37,596.81
T-7	Thor 4	N	103	104	5,086	16,531	30.77%	$14.99	$76,258.00
		Y	41	37	1,261	6,580	19.16%	$11.70	$14,748.16
	Total		144	141	6,347	23,111	27.46%	$14.34	$91,006.16

 

Minions T-0 comps

 - Sonic 2 Thu - 1.565x (7.79m)

 - Lightyear Thu - 2.24x (10.95m)

 - Fantastic Beasts - 1.57x (9.42m)

 

Final run for Thursday.  I'm a little concerned with the Sonic comp, so I won't go crazy with my prediction.  Let's say 8.6m (avg Sonic/LY) for previews.

 

Thor T-7 comps

 - No Way Home - .404x (20.2m)

 - DS2 - .574x (20.67m)

 - Batman + EA - 1.64x (35.37m)

 

Decreased against DS2 and only slight increase against NWH.  Hopefully once we ship Minions out all eyes will fall on DS2.