The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[XXR vs XXR]

True Friday Tracking -- June 30, 2022 -- 15 Alpha Theaters in Various Markets (331 Screens) -- Counted Thursday @ 4PM CST 

 

 

 

Minions: The Rise of Gru

387 show times -- 6387 total seats sold -- 3941 PLF seats sold -- 460 3-D seats sold -- 1986 regular seats sold 

Type Breakdown: 61.7% PLF -- 7.2% 3D -- 31.1% Regular 

Theater Estimates: ~4500

 

Comps (Adjusted)

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 (1.135x = $22.85M True Friday)

Lightyear (1.175x = $17.51M True Friday)

Lightyear (Adjusting out Disney Springs 24) (1.461x = $21.77M True Friday)

 

 

True Friday Estimate: $23M

Full Friday Estimate: $31.5M
Opening Weekend Estimate: $82M 

 

Spoiler

Comments 

 

This will almost certainly be the biggest animated movie of the year. My comp to Sonic 2 is pointing just south of $23M for true Friday and when I adjust Disney Springs 24 out of the Lightyear comp (under the natural conclusion that it massively over indexed there due to being a Disney animated feature at the Disney World movie theater), it points to just under $22M. Both SH2 and LY had a ~3.5x TF/OW ratio. I leaned a little higher on that to compensate for the holiday but also compensated internal for my expectation that this plays younger than both and therefore will have a level of cheaper ticket sales.

 

 

Notes 
PLF = IMAX, Dolby Cinema, AMC Prime 
Regular = Digital, Subtitled, Non-English Language, Close Captioned 

3D = Real 3D 

Theaters Tracked 

AMC Disney Springs 24 (Orlando, FL)
AMC Empire 25 (New York City, NY)
AMC Gulf Pointe 30 (Houston, TX) 
AMC DINE-IN Grapevine 30 (Dallas, TX)
AMC Southlake 24 (Atlanta, GA)
AMC Boston Commons 19 (Boston, MA)
AMC Town Square 18 (Las Vegas, NV)
AMC Elmwood Palace 20 (New Orleans, LA)
AMC Indianapolis 17 (Indianapolis, IN)
AMC Century City 15 (Los Angeles, CA)
AMC South Barrington 24 (Chicago, IL)
AMC Barrywoods 24 (Kansas City, MO)
AMC River Park Square 20 (Spokane, WA)
AMC Council Bluffs 17 (Omaha, NE)
AMC Quail Spring 24 (Oklahoma City, OK)

 

Edited June 30, 2022 by StormbreakerXXR

[charlie Jatinder]

45 minutes ago, StormbreakerXXR said:

True Friday Tracking -- June 30, 2022 -- 15 Alpha Theaters in Various Markets (331 Screens) -- Counted Thursday @ 4PM CST 

 

 

 

Minions: The Rise of Gru

387 show times -- 6387 total seats sold -- 3941 PLF seats sold -- 460 3-D seats sold -- 1986 regular seats sold 

Type Breakdown: 61.7% PLF -- 7.2% 3D -- 31.1% Regular 

Theater Estimates: ~4500

 

Comps (Adjusted)

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 (1.135x = $22.85M True Friday)

Lightyear (1.175x = $17.51M True Friday)

Lightyear (Adjusting out Disney Springs 24) (1.461x = $21.77M True Friday)

 

 

True Friday Estimate: $23M

Full Friday Estimate: $31.5M
Opening Weekend Estimate: $82M 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Comments 

 

This will almost certainly be the biggest animated movie of the year. My comp to Sonic 2 is pointing just south of $23M for true Friday and when I adjust Disney Springs 24 out of the Lightyear comp (under the natural conclusion that it massively over indexed there due to being a Disney animated feature at the Disney World movie theater), it points to just under $22M. Both SH2 and LY had a ~3.5x TF/OW ratio. I leaned a little higher on that to compensate for the holiday but also compensated internal for my expectation that this plays younger than both and therefore will have a level of cheaper ticket sales.

 

 

Notes 
PLF = IMAX, Dolby Cinema, AMC Prime 
Regular = Digital, Subtitled, Non-English Language, Close Captioned 

3D = Real 3D 

Theaters Tracked 

AMC Disney Springs 24 (Orlando, FL)
AMC Empire 25 (New York City, NY)
AMC Gulf Pointe 30 (Houston, TX) 
AMC DINE-IN Grapevine 30 (Dallas, TX)
AMC Southlake 24 (Atlanta, GA)
AMC Boston Commons 19 (Boston, MA)
AMC Town Square 18 (Las Vegas, NV)
AMC Elmwood Palace 20 (New Orleans, LA)
AMC Indianapolis 17 (Indianapolis, IN)
AMC Century City 15 (Los Angeles, CA)
AMC South Barrington 24 (Chicago, IL)
AMC Barrywoods 24 (Kansas City, MO)
AMC River Park Square 20 (Spokane, WA)
AMC Council Bluffs 17 (Omaha, NE)
AMC Quail Spring 24 (Oklahoma City, OK)

 

If FRI is only 23M, weekend will be 72M. SAT shall be droppping from FRI.

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

If FRI is only 23M, weekend will be 72M. SAT shall be droppping from FRI.

That would only be 3.1x true Friday with a holiday Monday. Can’t see it.

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, StormbreakerXXR said:

That would only be 3.1x true Friday with a holiday Monday. Can’t see it.

You gotta see it.

 

Minions & Despicable movies have drop on SAT historically and further adding to drop will be FRI is holiday in Canada.

 

That said, I am expecting FRI much higher than 23M.

[Porthos]

On 6/30/2022 at 12:29 PM, Porthos said:

 

Minions 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [11:40am - 12:20pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	215	25228	30248	5020	16.60%

 

Total Showings Added Since Last Night	1
Total Seats Added Since Last Night	68
Total Seats Sold Since Last Night	1000

 

T-0 [Mid-Day] Comp

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
GB:A [12:00-12:45]	201.36		413	2493		0/192	21771/24264	10.27%		3034	165.46%		9.06m
Sonic 2 [11:40-12:05]	154.60		364	3247		0/126	12668/15915	20.40%		3951	127.06%		9.66m
FB3 [11:45-12:30]	138.18		601	3633		0/207	24155/27788	13.07%		4456	112.66%		8.29m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Minions 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:         771/6262  [12.31% sold]
Matinee:    648/3398  [19.07% | 12.91% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Chapek's Law [whatever can go wrong for Disney Animation will go wrong... at the domestic box office] is shaping up to be more and more true with every passing week.

 

(if Minions 2 succeeds where Lightyear failed, that will just prove that it is Disney animation which is subject to Chapek's Law and not all animation)

 

Minions 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [3:50pm* - 4:20pm]

* NOTE: All showtimes that started before 3:50pm were sampled at the start of that showtime.

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	218	23799	30390	6591	21.69%

 

Total Showings Added Since Mid-Day	3
Total Seats Added Since Mid-Day	142
Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day	1571

 

T-0 Comp

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
GB:A [3:50-4:30]	217.24		541	3034		0/192	21230/24264	12.50%		3034	217.24%		9.78m
Sonic 2 [3:55-4:15]	166.82		704	3951		0/126	11964/15915	24.83%		3951	166.82%		10.43m
FB3 [3:50-4:25]	147.91		823	4456		0/207	23332/27788	16.04%		4456	147.91%		8.87m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Minions 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:      1024/6328  [16.18% sold]
Matinee:    821/3398  [24.16% | 12.46% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

(yes, the irony is not lost on me — why do you think I chose it?)

 

Yeah.  Man, comps are kinda all over the place, though not surprising given the differences in sub-genre.  FWIW, a Lightyear comp off the alleged 5.2m preview gives 8.45m, but that seems too low.  Off the perhaps more reasonable 5.8m, I get 9.4m.  Lopping 10% off of Sonic 2 to account for more kids tickets plus more showtimes in my sample period also gets me 9.4m, while GBA, 8.8m.  Also has more matinee tickets and fewer PLFs (though does have some 3D).

 

Let's choose midway between 8.8 and 9.4 and go with 9.2m, +/- .4m

 

Don't quite have the guts to say 9.5m to 10m.  Mostly because I don't have any pure kids flicks in my current comp set, plus it does look like Sacto is running hot from checking other sources.  But I suppose the potential is there for more.  Curious to see just how much I should be been adjusting for as I'm really just guessing right now.

Edited July 7, 2022 by Porthos

[M37]

38 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

You gotta see it.

 

Minions & Despicable movies have drop on SAT historically and further adding to drop will be FRI is holiday in Canada.

 

That said, I am expecting FRI much higher than 23M.

Yeah, I’m sitting on 2.8x TFri + Thursday for the 3-day (-5%, -10%), as the Thur/Fri ratio is the biggest unknown 

[keysersoze123]

I will update final preview number late tonight/tomorrow morning but at 430PM MTC1 is at 141936/829233 2127742.96 4610 shows. Generally family movies dont sell that much late hours and so I am expecting 160K finish. Adjusting ticket prices for kiddie flicks I am thinking ~ 2.3m at MTC1 and sample data for MTC2 looks at ~1.6m. I would say 8.5m previews but looking at Musketeer's update, other regional chains(not named megaplex or drafthouse) could be stronger. So could end up high 8s. Let us see how things go. 

[ThomasNicole]

I also think if previews ended up being around 9M with such excellent walkups, this should do way higher than 23M true friday 

 

 

[Tinalera]

Note to all....my Canada math corrected I mistakenly had canada at a .0539 for JW3 comp instead of .5396....I mean no big deal just changes the value from 112 thousand to 1.02 MILLION...I mean really chump change.......sigh

 

Thank you @charlie Jatinder for finding my little Canadian math faux paux. It was mainly that I DID have the math as .5396 but I manually typed number .0539.....need to pay more attention to those details.

Edited July 1, 2022 by Tinalera

[charlie Jatinder]

17 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Minions: The Rise of Gru Harkins T-1 Day

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
328	82,675	6,794	8.22%	$79,611	$11.72

 

Comps

1.28x Lightyear  - $7M (adj for ATP $6.3M)

0.47x Jurassic World: Dominion - $8.25M (adj for ATP $7.4M)

1.46x Sonic 2 - $9.1M (adj for ATP $8.7M)

 

Should hit 20K final I think. That would be putting it well over $8M. Nice.

At 5:45 PM PST, 17,163/83,156 (331 showings) $189,136

 

As expected solid walkins. Will be going over 20K final.

[crazymoviekid]

Minions is doing HUGE at my two NJ theaters.  Bigger than Jurassic World: Dominion on its Thursday.  Here are my Thursday numbers.

 

Theater 1:

Total Tickets Bought	Total Tickets	Avg Theater Capacity
306	1888	16.21%

 

Theater 2:

Total Tickets Bought	Total Tickets	Avg Theater Capacity
323	1107	29.18%

 

Thursday Comparison:

Jurassic World: Dominion: $26.4 mil 

Lightyear: $22.5 mil

The Bad Guys: $10.96 mil

 

The Bad Guys opened during Spring Break in my area, so, given these numbers, I'm feeling it is the most comparable.

Edited July 1, 2022 by crazymoviekid
Adding correct info

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Musketeer

who is musketeer?

[LegendaryBen]

Minions 2 will make it to  $200M domestically if it opens more than $75M 4*day weekend.

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

who is musketeer?

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porthos

Disappointed. Thought Porthos was some Star Wars character 

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Disappointed. Thought Porthos was some Star Wars character 

 

I do have other interests, you know. 

 

(just don't go on and on about all of them here )

[ZackM]

6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

@ZackM I wonder if its possible for you to get numbers not including additional theaters you have started to track with Thor. 

 

Sold - 238,857 -> 232,962

ATP - $16.97 -> 16.99

 

So the weighted comp should probably be about half a million less than I posted.

[motionpic05]

Thor had a really great week for pre-sales in Ontario.

[ZackM]

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago
Showings Added	18	35	53	0
Seats Added	1,738	4,217	6,501	0
Seats Sold	9,050	7,408	6,017	6,776
6/30/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	440	6,480	247,907	1,115,938	22.22%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	17	116	395	796
ATP
$16.91

 

 

 

Thor: Love and Thunder
	Dr. Strange MoM		Spider-Man: No Way Home		Total Net	Thursday Only Net
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7	$25.3	$25.8	$21.0	$24.0	$27.4	$29.1
T-8	$25.2	$25.8	$20.6	$23.6	$27.2	$28.9

[crazymoviekid]

14 hours ago, crazymoviekid said:

Minions is doing HUGE at my two NJ theaters.  Bigger than Jurassic World: Dominion on its Thursday.  Here are my Thursday numbers.

 

Theater 1:

32	260	12.31%
15	211	7.11%
9	96	9.38%
18	260	6.92%
23	211	10.90%
32	96	33.33%
78	260	30.00%
34	211	16.11%
5	96	5.21%
60	187	32.09%
306	1888	16.21%

 

Theater 2:

28	131	21.37%
24	129	18.60%
14	109	12.84%
16	131	12.21%
10	129	7.75%
33	109	30.28%
61	131	46.56%
85	129	65.89%
52	109	47.71%
323	1107	29.18%

 

Thursday Comparison:

Jurassic World: Dominion: $26.4 mil 

Lightyear: $22.5 mil

 

I have no explanation for how these numbers are so big.  My theaters are definitely over-indexing. 

For Friday, my numbers are truly out of this world.  These numbers are way bigger than JW:D.  They're closer to Doctor Strange.

 

Theater 1

Total Tickets Sold	Seat Total	Capacity Avg	Day-to-Dale Sales Increase
569	2790	20.39%	106.16%

 

Theater 2:

Total Tickets Sold	Seat Total	Capacity Avg	Day-to-Dale Sales Increase
657	1351	48.63%	101.53%

 

Friday Only Comparison:

Jurassic World: Dominion: $65.6 mil 

Lightyear: $73.4 mil

The Bad Guys: $29.66 mil

 

The Bad Guys opened during Spring Break in my area and over-indexed, so, given these numbers, I'm feeling it is the most comparable.

 

Edited July 1, 2022 by crazymoviekid