The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[THUNDER BIRD]

17 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I heard from a very reliable source that its reviews would be bad. I called it out early as well. So even the bad reviews was not a shocker. 

One reason which i felt that it will do big opening weekend was because i thought they will lean into Dinosaurs in our world Hook. I mean anyone who saw ending of Fallen Kingdom would thought so.

 

What they did in the movie, had i knew that beforehand i wouldn't have even thought of that, i mean the reason me and @Brainbug the Dinosaurand many others were predicting the big numbers for it, the movie doesn't even have that.

 

And i think one part of the reason that it got so bad reviews is that, it didn't gave what it promised, being bad isn't much of a problem in many cases, lying to people is. 

[THUNDER BIRD]

30 minutes ago, M37 said:

There is decent evidence in the tracking data that the poor reviews/WOM really took the wind out of the pre-sales pace for JWD, when compared to comparable titles. I'd estimate the poor reception cost JWD ~$2M+ in previews and and $15-20M for OW as compared to what a "good" movie would have made ... like Batman, which saw sales pace bumped UP after good reviews, helping the OW

 

Audiences (at least some of them) are becoming more selective and pay attention to quality, not just blindly throwing money at known IPs on OW then seeing the WOM kick in for subsequent weeks

As i mentioned in other comment, i was less concerned about reviews and more concerned about many reviews stating that movie is not about Dinosaurs.

 

I see now one of the many reason why this movie got canned so bad is because it didn't deliver what it promised.

 

Even with bad reviews a movie can succeed if WOM is good enough from Friday, but it lacked that.

[Mojoguy]

Reviews for JWFK weren't as bad because it was focused on the dinosaurs and it had two amazing sequences, the island escape and mansion climax. FK will have better legs than JWD.

 

JWD is way too long and the action wasn't memorable at all.

[M37]

19 minutes ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

As i mentioned in other comment, i was less concerned about reviews and more concerned about many reviews stating that movie is not about Dinosaurs.

 

I see now one of the many reason why this movie got canned so bad is because it didn't deliver what it promised.

 

Even with bad reviews a movie can succeed if WOM is good enough from Friday, but it lacked that.

Right, it’s less about the numerical score on RT or MC, but whether it meets or exceeds the expectations of the potential audience. Venom 2 for example was not well-reviewed on the whole, but it delivered exactly what the Venom watching audience wanted - JWD missed that mark

[BruiseCruise]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-minions-the-rise-of-gru-could-leverage-4th-of-july-holiday-to-score-best-family-driven-debut-since-2019/

 

Minions: Rise of Gru: $92.9m over 4 days

 

TGM: $33.1m over 4 days

 

JWD: $22.9m over 4 days

 

Elvis: $21.4m over 4 days

 

Black Phone: $15.3m over 4 days

 

LY: $11.6m over 4 days

[el sid]

Minions 2, counted today at 11am EST for Friday, July 1:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 451 (10 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 280 (21 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 139 (15 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 135 (15 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 40 (19 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 221 (18 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 752 (23 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 2.018.

222% (!) up, a very good jump since Monday.
Comps (all counted on Wednesday for Friday): Lightyear (50.6M OW) had 1.235 sold tickets (I said Minions 2 will overtake but did not think that it will be that clearly) = x1.63 = 82.5M at the moment

Sonic 2 (72.1M) had 1.484 sold tickets = x1.36 = 98M

and JC (35M OW) had 655 sold tickets = over 100M.

That's almost a bit too good today. Let's see if it can keep that pace.

 

Mr. Malcolm's List had today at the same time 15 sold tickets in 4 theaters for Thursday and 31 sold tickets, also in 4 theaters, for Friday.
The plot sounds quite nice IMO. Maybe at least the walk-ups will be good.

[Inceptionzq]

Minions The Rise of Gru Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

307

2822

10.88%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

361

2702

13.36%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1808	N/A	29754	6.08%	15	188

 

AMCs sold	1020
Cinemarks sold	326
Regals sold	212
Harkins sold	250

 

1.56x Lightyear T-1 (8.11M)

6.19x Encanto T-1 (9.29M)

 

Decided to get in on the Minions tracking... stuck at home with Covid so I've got a lot of free time.

[Inceptionzq]

Minions The Rise of Gru Megaplex

 

T-1 Thursday(93 showings): 1156/31486

0.774x Lightyear T-1 (4.03M)

3.17x Encanto T-1 (4.75M)

 

T-2 Friday(226 showings): 1884/63131

1.09x Lightyear T-2 (16.87M)

 

T-3 Saturday(227 showings): 894/63230

0.618x Lightyear T-3 (9.95M)

 

T-4 Sunday(214 showings): 213/60390

0.558x Lightyear T-4 (7.68M)

 

Seems Megaplex will be an outlier on the lower end

[Inceptionzq]

Minions The Rise of Gru Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-1 Thursday(183 showings): 4101/23869

0.970x Lightyear T-1 (5.04M)

5.96x Encanto T-1 (8.94M)

 

T-2 Friday(235 showings): 4872/31772

1.01x Lightyear T-2 (15.66M)

 

T-3 Saturday(253 showings): 3701/33520

0.920x Lightyear T-3 (14.80M)

 

T-4 Sunday(232 showings): 1373/31306

0.424x Lightyear T-4 (5.84M)

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Thor Love and Thunder Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1167

3809

30.64%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1176

4985

23.59%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
5458	176	37793	14.44%	15	233

 

AMCs sold	3814
Cinemarks sold	751
Regals sold	488
Harkins sold	405

 

1.46x Top Gun Maverick T-9 (28.41M)

0.662x Doctor Strange MoM T-9 (23.82M) [+317]

1.36x Batman T-9 (29.32M)

0.397x NWH T-9 (19.85M)

Thor Love and Thunder Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1186

3809

31.14%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1240

4985

24.87%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
5643	185	37793	14.93%	15	233

 

AMCs sold	3932
Cinemarks sold	777
Regals sold	515
Harkins sold	419

 

1.44x Top Gun Maverick T-8 (27.81M)

0.661x Doctor Strange MoM T-8 (23.79M) [+293]

0.399x NWH T-8 (19.96M)

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Thor Love and Thunder Megaplex

 

T-9 Thursday(190 showings): 5503(+256)/47563

1.25x Top Gun Maverick T-9 (24.06M)

0.605x Doctor Strange MoM T-9 (21.78M) [+338]

1.18x Batman T-9 (25.48M)

0.288x NWH T-9 (14.41M)

 

T-10 Friday(258 showings): 3095(+216)/67683

0.741x Top Gun Maverick T-10 (24.25M)

0.575x Doctor Strange MoM T-10 (31.46M) [+376]

1.48x Batman T-10 (51.93M)

0.219x NWH T-10 (15.72M)

 

T-11 Saturday(264 showings): 1622(+95)/69227

0.548x Top Gun Maverick T-11 (20.83M)

0.512x Doctor Strange MoM T-11 (29.59M) [+234]

1.48x Batman T-11 (64.14M)

0.203x NWH T-11 (15.02M)

 

T-12 Sunday(253 showings): 620(+33)/68879

0.834x Top Gun Maverick T-12 (30.61M)

0.789x Doctor Strange MoM T-12 (30.68M) [+72]

2.32x Batman T-12 (79.28M)

0.332x NWH T-12 (21.31M)

Thor Love and Thunder Megaplex

 

T-8 Thursday(190 showings): 5721(+218)/47563

1.22x Top Gun Maverick T-8 (23.46M)

0.603x Doctor Strange MoM T-8 (21.69M) [+398]

0.290x NWH T-8 (14.52M)

 

T-9 Friday(258 showings): 3344(+249)/67683

0.754x Top Gun Maverick T-9 (24.70M)

0.586x Doctor Strange MoM T-9 (32.07M) [+322]

0.28x NWH T-9 (16.40M)

 

T-10 Saturday(264 showings): 1761(+139)/69227

0.542x Top Gun Maverick T-10 (20.60M)

0.519x Doctor Strange MoM T-10 (29.96M) [+229]

0.209x NWH T-10 (15.46M)

 

T-11 Sunday(253 showings): 650(+30)/68879

0.793x Top Gun Maverick T-11 (29.08M)

0.765x Doctor Strange MoM T-11 (29.74M) [+64]

0.326x NWH T-11 (20.94M)

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Thor Love and Thunder Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-9 Thursday(188 showings): 13087(+346)/27516 ATP: $15.22

0.738x Doctor Strange MoM T-9 (26.55M) [+557]

1.35x Batman T-9 (23.77M, only using Thurs gross of 17.6M)

0.511x NWH T-9 (25.56M)

 

T-10 Friday(234 showings): 11063(+436)/34674 ATP: $15.27

0.692x Doctor Strange MoM T-10 (37.87M) [+623]

1.13x Batman T-10 (39.45M)

0.485x NWH T-10 (34.87M)

 

T-11 Saturday(244 showings): 10438(+356)/36457 ATP: $14.72

0.626x Doctor Strange MoM T-11 (36.18M) [+541]

1.09x Batman T-11 (46.96M)

0.473x NWH T-11 (34.94M)

 

T-12 Sunday(224 showings): 5782(+238)/33628 ATP: $14.31

0.682x Doctor Strange MoM T-12 (26.54M) [+431]

1.37x Batman T-12 (46.87M)

0.509x NWH T-12 (32.64M)

Thor Love and Thunder Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-8 Thursday(196 showings): 13517(+430)/28653 ATP: $15.23

0.737x Doctor Strange MoM T-8 (26.54M) [+586]

0.519x NWH T-8 (25.96M)

 

T-9 Friday(246 showings): 11486(+423)/35935 ATP: $15.27

0.691x Doctor Strange MoM T-9 (37.77M) [+656]

0.491x NWH T-9 (35.35M)

 

T-10 Saturday(258 showings): 10867(+429)/37896 ATP: $14.73

0.625x Doctor Strange MoM T-10 (36.13M) [+710]

0.477x NWH T-10 (35.23M)

 

T-11 Sunday(231 showings): 6052(+270)/34356 ATP: $14.28

0.678x Doctor Strange MoM T-11 (26.38M) [+451]

0.508x NWH T-11 (32.62M)

[LegendaryBen]

5 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

why is that a surprise. Minions is a sequel to 100m+ opener while Lightyear is movie within another movie. 

 

Anyway Minions breakout is confirmed. Tuesday is the strongest I have seen for any openers. 

 

Minions MTC1 Friday -  76708/1264045 1166869.54 6905 shows + 32603

 

This is about 28 hours as well but still its crazy strong for a tuesday of a release. I think at this point even 100m OW cannot be ruled out. Let us see how wednesday goes.

Plus it did not have TMobile discounts inflated that I know of.

[dudalb]

5 hours ago, John Marston said:

So people still aren’t tired of those yellow bastards? Damn

I guess not.

Frankly, I thought the Minions worked better as supporting charecters then as main charecters, and did not care for Minions One, but apparently they have a lot of fans. Lightyear basically folding and leaving the family movie spot open for them will help.

[TwoMisfits]

14 minutes ago, LegendaryBen said:

Plus it did not have TMobile discounts inflated that I know of.

 

Nope, neither family movie got them...

 

In fact, of the blockbusters, only TGM got a deal, and it was a $5 off 1 ticket deal, not a normal $4 ticket one.

 

The only other deal in the summer was the "buy on a single Tuesday/see on the same day BOGO ticket to any movie" which happened right before Lightyear's open.

 

So, all summer blockbusters are "clean" for tracking against each other...

Edited June 29, 2022 by TwoMisfits

[LegendaryBen]

Does anyone know if Minions will get double features with The Bad Guys? I hope it will fudge it to $100m.

[Menor the Destroyer]

23 hours ago, Menor Reborn said:

Back to 24-hour pace (approximately)

 

Thor L&T Marcus (T-10)

Theaters: 85

 

Thursday:

Showings: 902 (+17)

Seats Sold: 23539/135392 (+687)

 

Friday:

Showings: 1395 (+4)

Seats Sold: 14760/209913 (+599)

 

Not an amazing pace imo. Looking at all the tracking samples it's starting to feel more and more like ~150s opening even with good WOM. DS2 had a crazy week and Thor will likely not make much ground in comps until Tuesday, and though I expect a good final couple of days, there is a limit to how high it can go after now showing too much positive momentum at the start of this week. Hopefully it proves me wrong, Minions is looking like a solid 70s OW but have not had a very exciting opening since Top Gun. 

 

 

 

Thor T-9 Marcus

Theaters: 85

 

Thursday:

Showings: 904 (+2)

Seats Sold: 24503/135497(+964)

 

Friday has too many errors, and don't have time to manually check things, so skipping it for today. Not a bad day at all here yesterday, though since other markets were more mixed, thinking it might've been just a blip;. 

[WrathOfHan]

Now that first reactions are out, do we think this might fall under Ragnarok's OW?  

[John2015]

6 hours ago, el sid said:

Minions 2, counted today at 11am EST for Friday, July 1:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 451 (10 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 280 (21 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 139 (15 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 135 (15 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 40 (19 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 221 (18 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 752 (23 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 2.018.

222% (!) up, a very good jump since Monday.
Comps (all counted on Wednesday for Friday): Lightyear (50.6M OW) had 1.235 sold tickets (I said Minions 2 will overtake but did not think that it will be that clearly) = x1.63 = 82.5M at the moment

Sonic 2 (72.1M) had 1.484 sold tickets = x1.36 = 98M

and JC (35M OW) had 655 sold tickets = over 100M.

That's almost a bit too good today. Let's see if it can keep that pace.

 

Mr. Malcolm's List had today at the same time 15 sold tickets in 4 theaters for Thursday and 31 sold tickets, also in 4 theaters, for Friday.
The plot sounds quite nice IMO. Maybe at least the walk-ups will be good.

"Mr. Malcolm's List" have shown a lot of TV spots on CBS

[ThomasNicole]

22 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Now that first reactions are out, do we think this might fall under Ragnarok's OW?  

No because presales doesn't suggest that anyway. 

 

But why reactions would have something to do with it? They're great.