The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[M37]

On 4/7/2022 at 11:55 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Sonic2 Alpha Friday PS - 117342/788119 1670239.46 4639 shows

 

 

My run started around 4PM PST. So I am expecting it to start around 150K by the time shows start. Its definitely hitting low 20s at minimum for its true friday. Which means its ow should be > 75m at this point !!! way higher than what I thought was possible.

 

11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Minions MTC1 Friday - 116800/1276229 1759212.34 6974 shows 

 

Another excellent day for sure.

 

Almost identical to Sonic's total from later run on Thursday, which was a $20M TFri. Do you have a number in mind where it might end up as compared to to the 150K estimate there? Would be ~180K if it grows by same % amount to tomorrow morning/show start, but you would know better how much of a late kick there is for Friday pre-sales

[Old Spice]

Quick Thor update from Salt Lake City. Sugarhouse Cinemark preview night, 9 shows, non PLF.

 

Total tix sold 227

Percentages vs FINAL counts:

115% of Eternals (10.93)

261% of Ghostbusters: Afterlife (11.74)

54% of Batman (11.66)

62% of Dominion (11.16)

 

Solid, but hopefully can get a review boost next week. Right now I'm expecting low 20s.

[Tinalera]

Minions Rise of Gru

SW/Toronto Ontario T-1 Thurs/Fri numbers (Thursday final count)

 

	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	17	86	2165	21829	23994	0.0923
Fri	19	195	3287	45573	48860	0.0672

 

Comps

 

X4.528 Lightyear (90 million) Canada/US (3.3 Million)Canada only

X.5936 Jurassic Dominion(3.498 Canada/US (1.2 million)Canada only

 

4.5 X multiplier compared to Lightyear in SW/Toronto Ontario....like okay 90 US million obviously compared to Canada is like Apples to Kiwi, that would have meant a 250 million something opening for Lightyear, so obviously take THAT with a huge grain silo of salt-I keep looking at that number and saying "that cant be right" lol. 

 

EDIT OOOOPS I missed a decimal place on Canada, now properly reading 1.2 million instead of 112 thousand...I THOUGHT that was a little low....

Edited July 1, 2022 by Tinalera
math update.

[katnisscinnaplex]

2 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Minions	PLF	27	519	1,140	6,128	18.60%	$14.28	$16,276.92
		Standard	70	849	2,023	9,815	20.61%	$10.54	$21,319.89
	Total		97	1,368	3,163	15,943	19.84%	$11.89	$37,596.81
T-7	Thor 4	PLF	57	59	3,936	11,672	33.72%	$15.87	$62,456.38
		Standard	87	82	2,411	11,439	21.08%	$11.84	$28,549.78
	Total		144	141	6,347	23,111	27.46%	$14.34	$91,006.16

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Minions	N	62	795	1,919	10,104	18.99%	$13.16	$25,251.44
		Y	35	573	1,244	5,839	21.31%	$9.92	$12,345.37
	Total		97	1,368	3,163	15,943	19.84%	$11.89	$37,596.81
T-7	Thor 4	N	103	104	5,086	16,531	30.77%	$14.99	$76,258.00
		Y	41	37	1,261	6,580	19.16%	$11.70	$14,748.16
	Total		144	141	6,347	23,111	27.46%	$14.34	$91,006.16

 

Minions T-0 comps

 - Sonic 2 Thu - 1.565x (7.79m)

 - Lightyear Thu - 2.24x (10.95m)

 - Fantastic Beasts - 1.57x (9.42m)

 

Final run for Thursday.  I'm a little concerned with the Sonic comp, so I won't go crazy with my prediction.  Let's say 8.6m (avg Sonic/LY) for previews.

 

Thor T-7 comps

 - No Way Home - .404x (20.2m)

 - DS2 - .574x (20.67m)

 - Batman + EA - 1.64x (35.37m)

 

Decreased against DS2 and only slight increase against NWH.  Hopefully once we ship Minions out all eyes will fall on DS2.

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Minions (Fri)	PLF	48	1,391	1,391	9,682	14.37%	$13.56	$18,860.58
		Standard	118	2,698	2,698	16,332	16.52%	$10.40	$28,072.13
	Total		166	4,089	4,089	26,014	15.72%	$11.48	$46,932.71

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Minions (Fri)	N	71	2,104	2,104	11,667	18.03%	$12.90	$27,147.03
		Y	95	1,985	1,985	14,347	13.84%	$9.97	$19,785.68
	Total		166	4,089	4,089	26,014	15.72%	$11.48	$46,932.71

 

I don't usually look at Friday sales until morning of, but tomorrow will be busy so I wanted to go ahead and get the sheet set up.   That being said, I do have a few movies that can be used for loose comps.

 

Minions Fri T-1 comps

 - NWH - .225x (16.2m)

 - Batman - .529x (18.5m)

 - DS2 - .307x (16.79m)

 - TG2 - .707x (23.12m)

 - JW3 - .4x (16.65m)

 - Morbius - 2.71x (31.47m)

 

We know for a fact that Minions is much much more backloaded on presales.  I compared the rate change on these movies in the last day to their rate change for previews presales in the same period (T-1 to T-0).   If Minions rate holds true, here are the approximate comps:

 

Maybe Minions Fri T-0 comps?

 - NWH - .282x (20.31m)

 - Batman - .623x (21.81m)

 - DS2 - .385x (21.04m)

 - TG2 - .726x (23.75m)

 - JW3 - .41x (17.01m)

 - Morbius - 2.49x (28.85m)

 - Elvis - 2.51x (23.26m)

 - FB3 - 1.845x (26.88m)

 

Hypothetical prediction - 25.5m true Fri

[ZackM]

From yesterday evening:

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	Previous 2 Days
Showings Added	35	53	0	20
Seats Added	4,217	6,501	0	2,525
Seats Sold	7,408	6,017	6,776	11,687
6/29/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	439	6,462	238,857	1,114,200	21.44%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	13	109	373	740
ATP
$16.97

 

 

Comps for SM:NWH and DSitMoM.  Also, friendly reminder that the Net comps are simply a reference point for all weighted Alpha movies that I have tracked so far.

 

 

Thor: Love and Thunder
	Dr. Strange MoM		Spider-Man: No Way Home		Total Net	Thursday Only Net
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8	$25.2	$25.8	$20.6	$23.6	$27.2	$28.9

 

Edited June 30, 2022 by ZackM

[keysersoze123]

@ZackM I wonder if its possible for you to get numbers not including additional theaters you have started to track with Thor. 

 

Anyway on Minions, previews are up to 100225/829745 1524293.35 4606 shows. This is as of 1130AM PST and so shows have not started yet. Let us see where it ends up at. 

[ZackM]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

@ZackM I wonder if its possible for you to get numbers not including additional theaters you have started to track with Thor. 

 

Anyway on Minions, previews are up to 100225/829745 1524293.35 4606 shows. This is as of 1130AM PST and so shows have not started yet. Let us see where it ends up at. 

I can.  I'll see if I can find some time to do that tonight.

[ThomasNicole]

I'm kinda thinking +100M 4 day is almost 100% happening at this point. 

 

I find these creatures annoying but still happy for theaters (and because will show to Disney they can't keep making D+ their priority and expect people to pay for a ticket)

[Porthos]

12 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Minions 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	214	26160	30180	4020	13.32%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

1286

 

T-1 Comp

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
GB:A	193.27		570	2080		0/192	22169/24249	8.58%		3034	132.50%		8.70m
Sonic 2	139.44		787	2883		0/125	12991/15874	18.16%		3951	101.75%		8.71m
FB3	132.59		637	3032		0/207	24756/27788	10.91%		4456	90.22%		7.96m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Minions 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:        603/6262  [9.63% sold]
Matinee:    521/3398  [15.33% | 12.96% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Added FB3 as a comp.  Not because I think it's a particularly great one (though at least it's family-ish), but because it pretty heavily over-performed in Sacto, so I think it could be a useful control/floor for factoring in kids tickets/Minions 2 running hot here.

 

Also, frankly, FB3 is the only other 2pm preview start I have, and I'm a little worried about my sampling methodology.  I'm going to be grabbing 4pm start times and with Minions 2  having such a short run time, that could be the second screening on a few of the showings.  But I really can't pull my final sample much earlier, as then I run into problems in the other direction.  So bringing in FB3 will help at least a little there.

 

That even FB3 is currently pointing to 8m is... interesting, though I can't guarantee it'll also do that tomorrow (as Minions 2 would need to sell around 1850+ tickets tomorrow to keep a 8m-ish pace against FB3 at the final comp).  Still, should be interesting so why not?

 

Minions 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [11:40am - 12:20pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	215	25228	30248	5020	16.60%

 

Total Showings Added Since Last Night	1
Total Seats Added Since Last Night	68
Total Seats Sold Since Last Night	1000

 

T-0 [Mid-Day] Comp

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
GB:A [12:00-12:45]	201.36		413	2493		0/192	21771/24264	10.27%		3034	165.46%		9.06m
Sonic 2 [11:40-12:05]	154.60		364	3247		0/126	12668/15915	20.40%		3951	127.06%		9.66m
FB3 [11:45-12:30]	138.18		601	3633		0/207	24155/27788	13.07%		4456	112.66%		8.29m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Minions 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:         771/6262  [12.31% sold]
Matinee:    648/3398  [19.07% | 12.91% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Chapek's Law [whatever can go wrong for Disney Animation will go wrong... at the domestic box office] is shaping up to be more and more true with every passing week.

 

(if Minions 2 succeeds where Lightyear failed, that will just prove that it is Disney animation which is subject to Chapek's Law and not all animation)

[Tinalera]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Minions 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [11:40am - 12:20pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	215	25228	30248	5020	16.60%

 

Total Showings Added Since Last Night	1
Total Seats Added Since Last Night	68
Total Seats Sold Since Last Night	1000

 

T-0 [Mid-Day] Comp

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
GB:A [12:00-12:45]	201.36		413	2493		0/192	21771/24264	10.27%		3034	165.46%		9.06m
Sonic 2 [11:40-12:05]	154.60		364	3247		0/126	12668/15915	20.40%		3951	127.06%		9.66m
FB3 [11:45-12:30]	138.18		601	3633		0/207	24155/27788	13.07%		4456	112.66%		8.29m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Minions 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:         771/6262  [12.31% sold]
Matinee:    648/3398  [19.07% | 12.91% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Chapek's Law [whatever can go wrong for Disney Animation will go wrong... at the domestic box office] is shaping up to be more and more true with every passing week.

 

(if Minions 2 succeeds where Lightyear failed, that will just prove that it is Disney animation which is subject to Chapek's Law and not all animation)

Ill be interested to see what lesson Disney learns from this. Wonder if leads them to doubling down on D+ for animation and away from Cinema (they won't ignore cinema entirely as they will try and recoup some monies from theatres). I also think its not just Minions beating Lightyear, but by how much. If its an absolute trouncing where Minions does Lightyear whole weekend on Fri/Sat alone and goes to 100 mil 3 day, then as I said before that boardroom on monday morning is going to be an interesting place. I think Disney treats it as an outlier and continues on. Now if Disney's next animated film does Lightyear like numbers? Then I think they start seriously thinking about doubling down on D+ and put focus on MCU tentpole films.

[el sid]

Minions 2, counted today at 11am EST for Friday, July 1:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 643 (10 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 471 (21 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 182 (15 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 243 (15 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 72 (19 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 289 (18 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 993 (23 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 2.893.

48.5% up since yesterday. Again a very good jump.
Comps (all counted on Thursday for Friday, unfortunately I have no Lightyear comp for today due to my vacation): G: A had 1.124 sold tickets = x2.575 = 113.3M,

JC (35M OW) had 817 sold tickets = x3.54 = 123.9M

and Sonic 2 had 1.851 sold tickets = x1.565 = 112.9M.

Too good to be true, no? It's no original film and doesn't have The Rock but from my comps I can't rule out a 100M OW (3-day).

 

Mr. Malcolm's List had today 24 sold tickets in 4 theaters for today and 37 sold tickets, also in 4 theaters, for tomorrow.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Minions The Rise of Gru Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-1 Thursday(183 showings): 4101/23869

0.970x Lightyear T-1 (5.04M)

5.96x Encanto T-1 (8.94M)

 

T-2 Friday(235 showings): 4872/31772

1.01x Lightyear T-2 (15.66M)

 

T-3 Saturday(253 showings): 3701/33520

0.920x Lightyear T-3 (14.80M)

 

T-4 Sunday(232 showings): 1373/31306

0.424x Lightyear T-4 (5.84M)

Minions The Rise of Gru Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-0 Thursday(183 showings): 7407(+3306)/23869

1.18x Lightyear T-0 (6.15M)

4.16x Encanto T-0 (6.25M)

 

T-1 Friday(235 showings): 7461(+2589)/31772

1.19x Lightyear T-1 (18.52M)

 

T-2 Saturday(253 showings): 4936(+1235)/33520

0.999x Lightyear T-2 (16.08M)

 

T-3 Sunday(232 showings): 1921(+548)/31306

0.470x Lightyear T-3 (6.47M)

[ThatWaluigiDude]

20 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Ill be interested to see what lesson Disney learns from this. Wonder if leads them to doubling down on D+ for animation and away from Cinema (they won't ignore cinema entirely as they will try and recoup some monies from theatres). I also think its not just Minions beating Lightyear, but by how much. If its an absolute trouncing where Minions does Lightyear whole weekend on Fri/Sat alone and goes to 100 mil 3 day, then as I said before that boardroom on monday morning is going to be an interesting place. I think Disney treats it as an outlier and continues on. Now if Disney's next animated film does Lightyear like numbers? Then I think they start seriously thinking about doubling down on D+ and put focus on MCU tentpole films.

I can see them going even harder than before on D+ and honestly it would be an embarasing move. This isn't the 90's anymore, where kids were only interested in Disney and barely anything else. Now every big studio have their own animated division investing big (some like Universal and Paramount have more than one),  and most of their previous family movies show how much gold still is there in the pot. By moving away from theaters Disney is basically leaving their crown on the table to anybody else go and take it.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Minions The Rise of Gru Megaplex

 

T-1 Thursday(93 showings): 1156/31486

0.774x Lightyear T-1 (4.03M)

3.17x Encanto T-1 (4.75M)

 

T-2 Friday(226 showings): 1884/63131

1.09x Lightyear T-2 (16.87M)

 

T-3 Saturday(227 showings): 894/63230

0.618x Lightyear T-3 (9.95M)

 

T-4 Sunday(214 showings): 213/60390

0.558x Lightyear T-4 (7.68M)

 

Seems Megaplex will be an outlier on the lower end

Minions The Rise of Gru Megaplex

 

T-0 Thursday(93 showings): 2668(+1512)/31486

1.12x Lightyear T-0 (5.81M)

2.04x Encanto T-0 (3.06M)

1.26x Ghostbusters T-0 (5.65M)

2.25x Free Guy T-0 (4.95M)

1.57x Jungle Cruise T-0 (4.25M)

 

T-1 Friday(226 showings): 2931(+1047)/63131

1.22x Lightyear T-1 (18.91M)

1.34x Ghostbusters T-1 (16.28M)

 

T-2 Saturday(227 showings): 1210(+316)/63230

0.666x Lightyear T-2 (10.73M)

0.716x Ghostbusters T-2 (11.77M)

 

T-3 Sunday(214 showings): 337(+124)/60390

0.613x Lightyear T-3 (8.44M)

0.764x Ghostbusters T-3 (8.34M)

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Minions The Rise of Gru Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

307

2822

10.88%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

361

2702

13.36%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1808	N/A	29754	6.08%	15	188

 

AMCs sold	1020
Cinemarks sold	326
Regals sold	212
Harkins sold	250

 

1.56x Lightyear T-1 (8.11M)

6.19x Encanto T-1 (9.29M)

 

Decided to get in on the Minions tracking... stuck at home with Covid so I've got a lot of free time.

Minions The Rise of Gru Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

501

2822

17.75%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

667

2702

24.69%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
3654	1846	31481	11.61%	15	201

 

AMCs sold	1812
Cinemarks sold	739
Regals sold	529
Harkins sold	574

 

1.89x Lightyear T-0 (9.83M)

4.46x Encanto T-0 (6.69M)

1.81x Ghostbusters T-0 (8.14M)

3.41x Free Guy T-0 (7.51M)

3.50x Jungle Cruise T-0 (9.46M)

 

Megaplex and Drafthouse are still lagging behind, but have had quite impressive jumps over the past day. Unsurprisingly, that points to walkups being very good. Denver also with an impressive day. Gonna lean heavily on the Denver comps and go with 8.8M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Thor Love and Thunder Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1186

3809

31.14%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1240

4985

24.87%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
5643	185	37793	14.93%	15	233

 

AMCs sold	3932
Cinemarks sold	777
Regals sold	515
Harkins sold	419

 

1.44x Top Gun Maverick T-8 (27.81M)

0.661x Doctor Strange MoM T-8 (23.79M) [+293]

0.399x NWH T-8 (19.96M)

Thor Love and Thunder Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1211

3809

31.79%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1281

4985

25.70%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
5888	245	38701	15.21%	15	242

 

AMCs sold	4066
Cinemarks sold	808
Regals sold	561
Harkins sold	453

 

1.39x Top Gun Maverick T-7 (26.81M)

0.666x Doctor Strange MoM T-7 (23.97M) [+302]

1.37x Batman T-7 (29.54M)

0.407x NWH T-7 (20.37M)

[Eric Loves Rey]

16 hours ago, Eric the Minion said:

Minions: The Rise of Gru Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	173	1518	33844	4.49%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 551

 

Comp

4.850x of Jungle Cruise T-1 (13.09M)

0.626x of Sonic the Hedgehog 2 T-1 (3.91M)

1.381x of Lightyear T-1 (7.18M)

Minions: The Rise of Gru Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	173	2921	33844	8.63%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 1403

 

Comp

3.707x of Jungle Cruise (10.01M)

0.864x of Sonic the Hedgehog 2 (5.4M)

1.539x of Lightyear (8M)

 

Lightyear comp is what everybody else is saying...so I guess I'll go with that.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Thor Love and Thunder Megaplex

 

T-8 Thursday(190 showings): 5721(+218)/47563

1.22x Top Gun Maverick T-8 (23.46M)

0.603x Doctor Strange MoM T-8 (21.69M) [+398]

0.290x NWH T-8 (14.52M)

 

T-9 Friday(258 showings): 3344(+249)/67683

0.754x Top Gun Maverick T-9 (24.70M)

0.586x Doctor Strange MoM T-9 (32.07M) [+322]

0.228x NWH T-9 (16.40M)

 

T-10 Saturday(264 showings): 1761(+139)/69227

0.542x Top Gun Maverick T-10 (20.60M)

0.519x Doctor Strange MoM T-10 (29.96M) [+229]

0.209x NWH T-10 (15.46M)

 

T-11 Sunday(253 showings): 650(+30)/68879

0.793x Top Gun Maverick T-11 (29.08M)

0.765x Doctor Strange MoM T-11 (29.74M) [+64]

0.326x NWH T-11 (20.94M)

Thor Love and Thunder Megaplex

 

T-7 Thursday(190 showings): 5980(+259)/47563

1.18x Top Gun Maverick T-7 (22.75M)

0.602x Doctor Strange MoM T-7 (21.66M) [+443]

1.17x Batman T-7 (25.32M)

0.297x NWH T-7 (14.84M)

 

T-8 Friday(258 showings): 3604(+260)/67683

0.748x Top Gun Maverick T-8 (24.50M)

0.590x Doctor Strange MoM T-8 (32.30M) [+400]

1.44x Batman T-8 (50.28M)

0.238x NWH T-8 (17.09M)

 

T-9 Saturday(264 showings): 1899(+138)/69227

0.543x Top Gun Maverick T-9 (20.63M)

0.527x Doctor Strange MoM T-9 (30.46M) [+206]

1.41x Batman T-9 (61.12M)

0.213x NWH T-9 (15.77M)

 

T-10 Sunday(253 showings): 698(+48)/68879

0.803x Top Gun Maverick T-10 (29.46M)

0.738x Doctor Strange MoM T-10 (28.69M) [+96]

2.30x Batman T-10 (78.65M)

0.328x NWH T-10 (21.03M)

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Thor Love and Thunder Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-8 Thursday(196 showings): 13517(+430)/28653 ATP: $15.23

0.737x Doctor Strange MoM T-8 (26.54M) [+586]

0.519x NWH T-8 (25.96M)

 

T-9 Friday(246 showings): 11486(+423)/35935 ATP: $15.27

0.691x Doctor Strange MoM T-9 (37.77M) [+656]

0.491x NWH T-9 (35.35M)

 

T-10 Saturday(258 showings): 10867(+429)/37896 ATP: $14.73

0.625x Doctor Strange MoM T-10 (36.13M) [+710]

0.477x NWH T-10 (35.23M)

 

T-11 Sunday(231 showings): 6052(+270)/34356 ATP: $14.28

0.678x Doctor Strange MoM T-11 (26.38M) [+451]

0.508x NWH T-11 (32.62M)

Thor Love and Thunder Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-7 Thursday(196 showings): 14240(+723)/28653 ATP: $15.24

0.735x Doctor Strange MoM T-7 (26.46M) [+1037]

1.31x Batman T-7 (23.00M, only using Thurs gross of 17.6M)

0.539x NWH T-7 (26.95M)

 

T-8 Friday(246 showings): 11936(+450)/35935 ATP: $15.25

0.686x Doctor Strange MoM T-8 (37.53M) [+760]

1.10x Batman T-8 (38.66M)

0.499x NWH T-8 (35.93M)

 

T-9 Saturday(258 showings): 11367(+500)/37896 ATP: $14.71

0.625x Doctor Strange MoM T-9 (36.12M) [+801]

1.05x Batman T-9 (45.62M)

0.482x NWH T-9 (35.65M)

 

T-10 Sunday(231 showings): 6372(+320)/34356 ATP: $14.25

0.671x Doctor Strange MoM T-10 (26.09M) [+576]

1.31x Batman T-10 (44.69M)

0.507x NWH T-10 (32.53M)

[katnisscinnaplex]

8 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Malcolm List	T-0	Jax	5	8	8	10	859	1.16%
		Phx	4	7	4	8	574	1.39%
		Ral	4	6	-2	5	292	1.71%
	Total		13	21	10	23	1,725	1.33%
Minions 2	T-0	Jax	7	109	341	852	17,944	4.75%
		Phx	7	79	381	945	13,089	7.22%
		Ral	8	67	530	1,176	8,475	13.88%
	Total		22	255	1,252	2,973	39,508	7.53%
Nope	T-21	Jax	7	51	2	62	8,591	0.72%
		Phx	6	20	1	94	4,344	2.16%
		Ral	8	25	0	81	3,411	2.37%
	Total		21	96	3	237	16,346	1.45%
Thor 4	T-7	Jax	7	112	52	2,044	17,265	11.84%
		Phx	6	114	80	2,576	18,369	14.02%
		Ral	8	83	115	2,365	10,995	21.51%
	Total		21	309	247	6,985	46,629	14.98%

 

Minions 2 T-0 comps

 - Sonic 2 - 1.696x (8.445m)

 - Encanto - 6.577x (9.866m)

 - Lightyear Thu - 1.725x (8.454m)*

 - Jungle Cruise - 4.36x (11.77m)

 - Space Jam (Friday) - .671x (8.78m)

*assuming 4.9m true Thu for Lightyear

 

I'm looking for the comps to finish around 9m this afternoon with the rate it's going.  

 

Nope T-21 comps

 - JW-D - .114x (2.06m)

 - Eternals - .241x (2.29m)

 - Black Widow - .176x (2.33m)

 - F9 - .87x (6.19m)

 

Thor 4 T-7 comps

 - Dr. Strange 2 - .583x (20.99m)

 - Batman (Thu) - 1.76x (31.03m)

 - No Way Home - .338x (16.89m)

 - Black Widow - 2.47x (32.55m)

 - JW3 - 1.93x (34.82m)

 

 

Didn't quite make it to my number, but did jump 73%.  If only I had slept 20 minutes longer.  I added a few more comps to the chart for the last update.  

 

 

I'm a little surprised that F9 had less growth on Thursday than on Wednesday.  It does likely have the oldest audience though out of this group so that may lean more towards early presales.  Looking at the other three comps, I'd expect today to at least match yesterday's sales with the possibility of up to 15% increase.  That would put the final comps in a range from 10.4m to 11.4m.

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Minions 2	1-Hr	Jax	7	109	566	1,418	17,944	7.90%
		Phx	7	79	307	1,252	13,089	9.57%
		Ral	8	67	640	1,816	8,475	21.43%
	Total		22	255	1,513	4,486	39,508	11.35%

 

Okay, so it didn't hit the comps for today presumably for two reasons: 2pm previews (pulled separately but missed a lot of the afternoon walkups) and starting at a higher # of tickets sold.  Ended up at a 50.9% increase in final day.

 

Minions 2 T-1hr comps

 - Free Guy - 5.16x (11.36m)

 - Encanto (Tue) - 6.345x (9.52m)

 - Lightyear (Thu) - 1.807x (8.85m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 4.071x (10.99m)

All PG movies - 8.816m

All animated movies - 10.76m

All movies - 8.898m

 

Expecting a much lower ATP than Free Guy and Jungle Cruise.  I'll put my final prediction at 9m previews.