The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[charlie Jatinder]

On 6/30/2022 at 1:12 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Thor: Love and Thunder Harkins T-8 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
496	119,100	12,682	10.65%	$159,634	$12.59

 

+448.

 

Comps

0.579x of DSitMoM admits - $20.9M

Thor: Love and Thunder Harkins T-7 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
512	119,100	13,267	11.14%	$165,838	$12.50

 

+585. Good bump. Need more such good bumps. Since targets work well for it. Expecting 16.6K by Sunday. Will be great if its more. Also Gross is estimate today.

 

Comps

0.579x of DSitMoM admits - $21M

3.210x of Black Widow admits - $44.1M

4.119x of Eternals admits - $39.1M

[Legion Again]

Good Sacto day. Still looks like 27.5-30ish there.

 

I think Batman would be useful for pace still even if I wouldn’t take final:final comp at face value.

[YM!]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-dc-league-of-super-pets-plus-the-latest-thor-love-and-thunder-tracking/

 

Super Pets - 40-60M OW/120M-210M DOM

Thor - 140-167M OW/155M OW/345M-420M DOM/395M DOM

[Jonwo]

26 minutes ago, YourMother said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-dc-league-of-super-pets-plus-the-latest-thor-love-and-thunder-tracking/

 

Super Pets - 40-60M OW/120M-210M DOM

Thor - 140-167M OW/155M OW/345M-420M DOM/395M DOM

That's quite generous tracking for Super Pets, 40m would have been the ceiling rather than the floor IMO.

[M37]

23 hours ago, M37 said:

Not sure what you had in mind before the run, but a +45% from T-2 to T-1 is still a significant high end outlier for growth (and in line with other tracking samples updated today). According to what you posted for Venom, it "only" had 33% growth for that same period, then doubled to T-Final, and Lightyear was +30% for that same period per @ZackM's Alpha numbers. Minions should continue to outpace both, more than double tomorrow, so 150K+final

 

Based on the pace/growth rate, Sacto should easily sell 2K plus tickets by the final checkpoint. Expecting total will be closer to 7K than 6K (6500-7000+)

 

Looking at all the data, penciling in an $8.5-$9.5M preview total for Minions, personally thinking more likely to be in the upper half of that range than the lower end (so $9M+), but do worry about a lower ATP dragging the total gross down a bit, even more than the working 10% estimate

Looking over the final numbers from last night, do think there was a bit of a sampling issue, where the super early preview start time coupled with massive late growth led to a bit of an undercount for the T-1hr samples, while the T-Final numbers from @charlie Jatinder and @keysersoze123 caught the whole wave and suggested higher

 

Will join the chorus of those calling for $9M+, $9.3M +/- $0.2

 

Also updating the growth rate chart I posted earlier this week, adding a few more titles just for comparison funsies, where Minions remained in a class by itself (forcing me to rescale). The only genre that can top that kind of growth is horror, which is almost entirely walk-up sales

 

 

[TwoMisfits]

37 minutes ago, YourMother said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-dc-league-of-super-pets-plus-the-latest-thor-love-and-thunder-tracking/

 

Super Pets - 40-60M OW/120M-210M DOM

Thor - 140-167M OW/155M OW/345M-420M DOM/395M DOM

 

Well, that's another $5M to the low end Thor has ticked down (although did the high end really drop - I admit I haven't paid as much attention to the high end b/c well, I didn't think it was possible anyway)...

 

As for Super Pets, those numbers are as good as any...take a dart and toss it for that one...

[M37]

40 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

That's quite generous tracking for Super Pets, 40m would have been the ceiling rather than the floor IMO.

I tend to agree - my general thought is that it feels like Bad Guys but with DC branding, and factoring in summer (softer weekends/higher weekdays) expecting it to open in about the same mid-$20s range. But should have decent-ish legs into August if not September

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/24/2022 at 8:58 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Theaters	Shows	Change	Standard	PLF	IMAX	3D
Lightyear	3,479	82,443	-46.69%	74,666	7,777	1,343	4,850
Elvis	3,377	75,093		69,270	5,823	0	0
Jurassic World Dominion	3,402	73,932	-30.75%	65,931	8,001	2,028	4,592
Top Gun: Maverick	3,311	71,461	-1.89%	69,721	1,740	1,012	0
The Black Phone	2,800	59,993		59,498	495	0	0
Doctor Strange 2	1,479	17,183	-23.68%	17,060	123	0	111
The Bad Guys	725	4,189	-46.60%	4,180	9	0	9
Phantom of the Open	454	3,516		3,516	0	0	0
Everything Everywhere	416	2,766	-27.69%	2,761	5	0	0
Downton Abbey 2	448	2,744	-56.78%	2,731	13	0	0
Bob's Burgers Movie	407	2,727	-66.05%	2,727	0	0	0
Jug Jugg Jeeyo	273	2,654		2,654	0	0	0
Brian and Charles	258	1,258	-65.90%	1,258	0	0	0

 

US showtime sample for 6/24/22 weekend

 

OW shows comps

Black Phone 6/15 EA - 150 (150 TC)

Black Phone 6/22 EA - ....

Black Phone - 59,993 (2,800 TC)

 - Old - 56,613 (2,958)

 - Death on the Nile - 56,756 (2,935)

Elvis 6/21 EA - 219 (213 TC)

Elvis - 75,093 (3,377 TC)

 - Candyman - 74,146 (3,113)

 - Free Guy - 80,479 (3,318)

 - Lost City - 81,686 (3,443)

 

My source never posted any Black Phone shows for Wednesday.  I know they happened, but no idea how many.  

 

T-1 Week

Minions 2 - 94,225 (2,848 TC) (24,830 PLF)

 - Lightyear - 82,420 (2,745) (27,340)

 - Venom 2 - 81,718 (2,807) (12,495 IMAX)

 - JW3 - 117,594 (3,104) (30,356)

Mr. Malcolm's List - 10,621 (813 TC)

 - Infinite Storm - 10,576 (867)

 - National Champions - 10,875 (911)

 - The King's Daughter - 10,270 (815)

 

T-2 Weeks Previews

Thor 4 - 24,565 (2,756 TC) (6,755 PLF)

 - Batman - 23,704 (2,907) (2,480)

 - JW-D - 20,186 (2,773) (5,091)

 - NWH - 26,573 (2,835) (4,775)

 

T-3 Weeks Previews

Crawdads Sing 7/13 EA - 44 (44 TC)

Where the Crawdads Sing - 2,901 (971 TC)

 - Father Stu - 3,017 (1,359)

 - Uncharted - 3,304 (813)

 - Ghostbusters - 3,137 (799)

 

T-4 Weeks Previews

Nope - 7,792 (1,976) (2,007 PLF)

 - Scream - 2,631 (1,258) (571)

 - Venom 2 - 12,067 (1,934) (2,326 IMAX)

Movie	Theaters	Shows	Change	Standard	PLF	IMAX	3D
Minions 2	3,602	152,458		122,793	29,665	2,676	16,063
Top Gun 2	3,187	58,693	-17.87%	56,434	2,259	792	0
Elvis	3,251	48,112	-35.93%	47,820	292	0	0
Jurassic World 3	3,068	46,698	-36.84%	45,268	1,430	39	1,169
Lightyear	3,029	44,478	-46.05%	43,840	638	0	506
The Black Phone	2,696	44,306	-26.15%	44,176	130	0	0
Mr. Malcolm's List	1,263	17,592		17,568	24	0	0
Doctor Strange 2	439	2,837	-83.49%	2,802	35	0	35
Everything Everywhere	503	2,739	-0.98%	2,739	0	0	0
The Bad Guys	232	1,405	-66.46%	1,396	9	0	9
Downton Abbey 2	199	1,207	-56.01%	1,207	0	0	0

 

US showtime sample for 7/1/22 weekend (3-day)

 

OW shows comps

Minions 2 - 152,458 (3,602 TC) (29,665 PLF)

 - Lightyear - 154,652 (3,392) (35,389)

 - Venom 2 - 137,474 (3,273) (13,022 IMAX)

 - Black Widow - 156,781 (3,409) (19,112 IMAX)

Mr. Malcolm's List - 17,592 (1,263 TC)

 - Infinite Storm - 19,579 (1,481)

 - The Outfit - 16,122 (1,207)

 - Journal for Jordan - 19,572 (2,055)

 

T-1 Week

Thor 4 - 132,351 (3,087 TC) (35,960 PLF)

 - Batman - 125,394 (3,125) (14,002)

 - TG2 - 130,398 (3,199) (15,559)

 - NWH - 135,877 (3,146) (25,877)

 

T-2 Weeks Previews

Crawdads Sing 7/13 EA - 226 (225 TC)

Where the Crawdads Sing - 5,157 (1,803 TC)

 - Dune - 5,906 (2,129)

 - Elvis - 5,527 (2,328)

Paws of Fury - 5,351 (1,755 TC)

 - The Bad Guys - 4,606 (1,929)

 

T-3 Weeks Previews

Nope - 8,197 (2,086) (2,025 PLF)

 - Eternals - 8,959 (2,267) (1,785 IMAX)

 - Sonic 2 - 7,639 (2,272) (956)

[Eric the IF]

I think a 40M minimum is a little generous (I'm pegging for a 35M opener), but I would be shocked if Super Pets opened on the level of The Bad Guys. I'm far from that movie's target audience, but it's a film that combines superheroes, talking animals, wacky humor that will for sure feature like 5 fart jokes, and Dwayne Johnson as the star. That's basically everything kids love. The only other things you need to add are a dinosaur and outer space and you're all set.

[Legion Again]

Just now, Eric the Minion said:

outer space

👀

[Eric the IF]

11 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

👀

You're saying Krypto the Superdog throws the dog voiced by Kevin Hart into the sun for saying one too many homophobic slurs? I knew he was a true ally!

[M37]

29 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Theaters	Shows	Change	Standard	PLF	IMAX	3D
Minions 2	3,602	152,458		122,793	29,665	2,676	16,063
Top Gun 2	3,187	58,693	-17.87%	56,434	2,259	792	0
Elvis	3,251	48,112	-35.93%	47,820	292	0	0
Jurassic World 3	3,068	46,698	-36.84%	45,268	1,430	39	1,169
Lightyear	3,029	44,478	-46.05%	43,840	638	0	506
The Black Phone	2,696	44,306	-26.15%	44,176	130	0	0
Mr. Malcolm's List	1,263	17,592		17,568	24	0	0
Doctor Strange 2	439	2,837	-83.49%	2,802	35	0	35
Everything Everywhere	503	2,739	-0.98%	2,739	0	0	0
The Bad Guys	232	1,405	-66.46%	1,396	9	0	9
Downton Abbey 2	199	1,207	-56.01%	1,207	0	0	0

 

US showtime sample for 7/1/22 weekend (3-day)

 

OW shows comps

Minions 2 - 152,458 (3,602 TC) (29,665 PLF)

 - Lightyear - 154,652 (3,392) (35,389)

 - Venom 2 - 137,474 (3,273) (13,022 IMAX)

 - Black Widow - 156,781 (3,409) (19,112 IMAX)

Mr. Malcolm's List - 17,592 (1,263 TC)

 - Infinite Storm - 19,579 (1,481)

 - The Outfit - 16,122 (1,207)

 - Journal for Jordan - 19,572 (2,055)

 

T-1 Week

Thor 4 - 132,351 (3,087 TC) (35,960 PLF)

 - Batman - 125,394 (3,125) (14,002)

 - TG2 - 130,398 (3,199) (15,559)

 - NWH - 135,877 (3,146) (25,877)

 

T-2 Weeks Previews

Crawdads Sing 7/13 EA - 226 (225 TC)

Where the Crawdads Sing - 5,157 (1,803 TC)

 - Dune - 5,906 (2,129)

 - Elvis - 5,527 (2,328)

Paws of Fury - 5,351 (1,755 TC)

 - The Bad Guys - 4,606 (1,929)

 

T-3 Weeks Previews

Nope - 8,197 (2,086) (2,025 PLF)

 - Eternals - 8,959 (2,267) (1,785 IMAX)

 - Sonic 2 - 7,639 (2,272) (956)

That's not a whole lot of showtimes for TGM relative to the rest of #2-6 and their expected grosses this weekend. Hope theaters are prepared for a potential holiday bump, don't have it playing in smaller auditoriums and start selling out shows like they did on Father's Day weekend

[Old Spice]

5 minutes ago, Eric the Minion said:

You're saying Krypto the Superdog throws the dog voiced by Kevin Hart into the sun for saying one too many homophobic slurs? I knew he was a true ally!

That's Ace the Bat Hound (in the comics he wore a mask to protect his secret identity) and I'm sure Bruce and Alfred would have taught him better!

[Krissykins]

Does Mrs Harris Goes to Paris still open on the 15th of this month? Noticed it’s still on the schedule and a the forecast, but it got pushed back to September 30th here, ages ago. 

[Grebacio]

8 hours ago, John Marston said:

 

why? They are the ones that made a film that nobody wanted 

I would wait until D+ numbers to say that

[filmlover]

Just now, Krissykins said:

Does Mrs Harris Goes to Paris still open on the 15th of this month? Noticed it’s still on the schedule and a the forecast, but it got pushed back to September 30th here, ages ago. 

It is. It's being dumped though. Target audience of older women will be gravitating towards Crawdads that weekend instead.

[M37]

35 minutes ago, Eric the Minion said:

I think a 40M minimum is a little generous (I'm pegging for a 35M opener), but I would be shocked if Super Pets opened on the level of The Bad Guys. I'm far from that movie's target audience, but it's a film that combines superheroes, talking animals, wacky humor that will for sure feature like 5 fart jokes, and Dwayne Johnson as the star. That's basically everything kids love. The only other things you need to add are a dinosaur and outer space and you're all set.

You’re not wrong, but also implicit in that description is that it’s probably going to skew to younger kids, which limits potential IMO 

 

To clarify though, a ~$25M OW is probably a ~$35M first week, which would be 25% higher than Bad Guys (or maybe $28/$40 = +40%)

[filmlover]

If The Emoji Movie opened to nearly $25M in the same spot despite being the most ridiculous concept for a movie ever, $30M+ shouldn't be that difficult for Super-Pets.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/30/2022 at 9:08 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Nope	T-21	Jax	7	51	2	62	8,591	0.72%
		Phx	6	20	1	94	4,344	2.16%
		Ral	8	25	0	81	3,411	2.37%
	Total		21	96	3	237	16,346	1.45%
Thor 4	T-7	Jax	7	112	52	2,044	17,265	11.84%
		Phx	6	114	80	2,576	18,369	14.02%
		Ral	8	83	115	2,365	10,995	21.51%
	Total		21	309	247	6,985	46,629	14.98%

 

Nope T-21 comps

 - JW-D - .114x (2.06m)

 - Eternals - .241x (2.29m)

 - Black Widow - .176x (2.33m)

 - F9 - .87x (6.19m)

 

Thor 4 T-7 comps

 - Dr. Strange 2 - .583x (20.99m)

 - Batman (Thu) - 1.76x (31.03m)

 - No Way Home - .338x (16.89m)

 - Black Widow - 2.47x (32.55m)

 - JW3 - 1.93x (34.82m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Nope	T-20	Jax	7	51	6	68	8,591	0.79%
		Phx	6	20	2	96	4,344	2.21%
		Ral	8	25	-2	79	3,411	2.32%
	Total		21	96	6	243	16,346	1.49%
Thor 4	T-6	Jax	7	112	207	2,251	17,265	13.04%
		Phx	6	114	137	2,713	18,369	14.77%
		Ral	8	83	167	2,532	10,995	23.03%
	Total		21	309	511	7,496	46,629	16.08%

 

Nope T-20 comps

 - JW-D - .114x (2.06m)

 - Eternals - missed

 - Black Widow - .17x (2.24m)

 - F9 - .715x (5.07m)

 

Thor 4 T-6 comps

 - Dr. Strange 2 - .58x (20.87m)

 - Batman (Thu) - missed

 - No Way Home - .349x (17.43m)

 - Black Widow - 2.48x (32.79m)

 - JW3 - 1.95x (35.15m)

[keysersoze123]

Minions Friday MTC1 PS final - 224419/1281333 3310406.41 7075 shows

 

WOW. This is going to go above 30m true friday at this rate. Probably will need 33m to hit 100m by sunday !!!!