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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

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On 7/22/2022 at 9:26 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Bullet Train T-13 Jax 7 51 9 39 9,463 0.41%
    Phx 6 29 13 79 6,197 1.27%
    Ral 8 27 7 37 3,710 1.00%
  Total   21 107 29 155 19,370 0.80%
Bullet Train (EA) T-11 Jax 5 6 4 8 1,331 0.60%
    Phx 1 1 2 5 208 2.40%
    Ral 1 1 4 6 261 2.30%
  Total   7 8 10 19 1,800 1.06%
Easter Sunday T-13 Jax 6 15 3 8 2,232 0.36%
    Phx 5 13 0 6 1,595 0.38%
    Ral 7 15 0 0 1,695 0.00%
  Total   18 43 3 14 5,522 0.25%
Super Pets T-6 Jax 6 38 9 29 4,934 0.59%
    Phx 6 24 1 36 3,615 1.00%
    Ral 7 23 17 37 3,340 1.11%
  Total   19 85 27 102 11,889 0.86%
Vengeance T-6 Jax 3 4 0 3 286 1.05%
    Phx 5 10 1 13 1,122 1.16%
    Ral 4 5 0 3 367 0.82%
  Total   12 19 1 19 1,775 1.07%

 

Super Pets T-6 comps

 - Minions 2 - missed

 - Sonic 2 - .169x (841k)

 - Bad Guys - 1.65x (1.89m)

 - Jungle Cruise - .593x (1.6m)

 - Paws of Fury - 2.55x (1.29m)

 

Bullet Train T-13 comps

 - Dune - missed

 - No Time to Die (Thu) - .378x (1.97m)

 - F9 - .242x (1.72m)

 - Morbius - .309x (1.76m)

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Bullet Train T-12 Jax 7 51 9 48 9,463 0.51%
    Phx 6 29 15 94 6,197 1.52%
    Ral 8 27 7 44 3,710 1.19%
ATP: 13.9 Total   21 107 31 186 19,370 0.96%
Bullet Train (EA) T-10 Jax 5 6 5 13 1,331 0.98%
    Phx 1 1 8 13 208 6.25%
    Ral 1 1 4 10 261 3.83%
ATP: 16.1 Total   7 8 17 36 1,800 2.00%
Dragon Ball T-26 Jax 6 26 53 53 5,795 0.91%
    Phx 6 22 69 69 4,486 1.54%
    Ral 7 21 82 82 2,812 2.92%
ATP: 14.83 Total   19 69 204 204 13,093 1.56%
Easter Sunday T-12 Jax 6 15 3 11 2,232 0.49%
    Phx 5 13 0 6 1,595 0.38%
    Ral 7 15 1 1 1,695 0.06%
  Total   18 43 4 18 5,522 0.33%
Super Pets T-5 Jax 6 38 5 34 4,934 0.69%
    Phx 6 24 2 38 3,615 1.05%
    Ral 7 23 11 48 3,340 1.44%
ATP: 12.63 Total   19 85 18 120 11,889 1.42%
Vengeance T-5 Jax 3 4 0 3 286 1.05%
    Phx 5 10 0 13 1,122 1.16%
    Ral 4 5 1 4 367 1.09%
  Total   12 19 1 20 1,775 1.13%

 

Decided to add Dragon Ball since anime is notoriously heavy on early presales.  Figured it would be more fun to track than everything else out there.  After just one day (I think?) it has more sales than anything else I'm tracking.

 

Super Pets T-5 comps

 - Minions 2 - missed

 - Sonic 2 - .178x (888k)

 - Bad Guys - missed

 - Jungle Cruise - .67x (1.81m)

 - Paws of Fury - 3x (1.515m)

 - Lightyear - .223x (1.09m

 

Bullet Train T-12 comps

 - Dune - missed

 - No Time to Die (Thu) - missed

 - F9 - .265x (1.88m)

 - Morbius - .336x (1.92m)

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22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day Movie Format Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-1 Nope (Sat) PLF 36 504 504 8,512 5.92% $14.69 $7,401.26
    Standard 68 308 308 8,458 3.64% $10.35 $3,188.07
  Nope (Sat) Total   104 812 812 16,970 4.78% $13.04 $10,589.33

 

By matinee

 

Day Movie Mat Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-1 Nope (Sat) N 56 477 477 9,210 5.18% $14.90 $7,108.09
    Y 48 335 335 7,760 4.32% $10.39 $3,481.24
  Nope (Sat) Total   104 812 812 16,970 4.78% $13.04 $10,589.33

 

At about 92% of where Friday was at T-1, very similar to Crawdads.  

 

Unadjusted Sat comp

 - Crawdads - 1.83x (9.79m)

 

Going by Crawdads final day increase as compared to its Friday increase, we'd get around 1925 sales total for Saturday which would comp out to a 12.7m Saturday (14m adjusted).  These are rough numbers though and I'm adjusting by my projected Fri gross.

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day Movie Format Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-0 Nope (Sat) PLF 36 468 972 8,512 11.42% $14.47 $14,066.64
    Standard 68 563 871 8,458 10.30% $10.31 $8,983.56
  Nope (Sat) Total   104 1,031 1,843 16,970 10.86% $12.51 $23,050.20
T-1 Nope (Sun) PLF 36 212 212 8,512 2.49% $14.33 $3,038.09
    Standard 68 174 174 8,458 2.06% $10.79 $1,877.33
  Nope (Sun) Total   104 386 386 16,970 2.27% $12.73 $4,915.42

 

By matinee

 

Day Movie Mat Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-0 Nope (Sat) N 56 568 1,045 9,210 11.35% $14.32 $14,965.67
    Y 48 463 798 7,760 10.28% $10.13 $8,084.53
  Nope (Sat) Total   104 1,031 1,843 16,970 10.86% $12.51 $23,050.20
T-1 Nope (Sun) N 56 183 183 9,210 1.99% $15.10 $2,763.32
    Y 48 203 203 7,760 2.62% $10.60 $2,152.10
  Nope (Sun) Total   104 386 386 16,970 2.27% $12.73 $4,915.42

 

Saturday finished a little under Friday final presales, and Sunday's are looking awful.  Only at 47% of Sat T-1, while Crawdads Sunday was at 73% already.

 

Nope Sat unadjusted comp

 - Crawdads - 2.264x (12.12m)

 

Adjusted comp

 - Crawdads - 12.996m

 

I'll go with 13m for Sat

 

Nope Sun unadjusted comp

 - Crawdads - 1.184x (5.49m)

 

Adjusted comp (using 13m Sat)

 - Crawdads - 5.88m

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45 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

Dragon ball could be the 2nd highest grossing august release, right? I mean it’s no demon slayer but being flat from Broly admits could be good enough.

Maybe, depends on if Beast can gain traction as a viable end-of-summer star vehicle diversion or not.

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6 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Porthos I think we neee you more often. Probably retire daily tracking for smaller stuff and do a quick & dirty check weekly?

 

I think between katniss and Eric the smaller stuff is covered pretty accurately. :)  Sticking to a "occasional pop in when things look interesting" suits me just fine, as I do not feel like even doing a weekly check on every single 20m+ movie out there.

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23 hours ago, Eric the Tethered said:

DC League of Super Pets Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 42 74 6629 1.12%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 12

 

Comp

0.643x of Jungle Cruise T-6 (1.74M)

0.691x of Encanto T-6 (1.04M)

0.203x of Lightyear T-6 (1.06M)

0.215x of Minions 2 T-6 (2.31M)

DC League of Super Pets Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 46 96 7397 1.30%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 22

 

Comp

0.813x of Jungle Cruise T-5 (2.2M)

0.774x of Encanto T-5 (1.16M)

0.231x of Lightyear T-5 (1.2M)

0.227x of Minions 2 T-5 (2.44M)

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23 hours ago, Eric the Tethered said:

Bullet Train Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 75 163 16256 1.00%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 31

 

Comp

0.593x of The Suicide Squad T-13 (2.43M)

0.610x of Uncharted T-13 (2.26M)

0.329x of Fantastic Beasts 3 T-13 (1.97M)

0.113x of Top Gun 2 T-13 (2.18M)

0.093x of Jurassic World 3 T-13 (1.68M)

Bullet Train Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 75 189 16256 1.16%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 26

 

Comp

4.725x of Snake Eyes T-12 (6.61M)

0.634x of The Suicide Squad T-12 (2.6M)

0.300x of No Time to Die T-12 (1.89M)

0.264x of Dune T-12 (1.35M)

0.672x of Uncharted T-12 (2.49M)

0.357x of Fantastic Beasts 3 T-12 (2.14M)

0.122x of Top Gun 2 T-12 (2.35M)

0.103x of Jurassic World 3 T-12 (1.85M)

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23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Bullet Train T-12 Jax 7 51 9 48 9,463 0.51%
    Phx 6 29 15 94 6,197 1.52%
    Ral 8 27 7 44 3,710 1.19%
ATP: 13.9 Total   21 107 31 186 19,370 0.96%
Bullet Train (EA) T-10 Jax 5 6 5 13 1,331 0.98%
    Phx 1 1 8 13 208 6.25%
    Ral 1 1 4 10 261 3.83%
ATP: 16.1 Total   7 8 17 36 1,800 2.00%
Dragon Ball T-26 Jax 6 26 53 53 5,795 0.91%
    Phx 6 22 69 69 4,486 1.54%
    Ral 7 21 82 82 2,812 2.92%
ATP: 14.83 Total   19 69 204 204 13,093 1.56%
Easter Sunday T-12 Jax 6 15 3 11 2,232 0.49%
    Phx 5 13 0 6 1,595 0.38%
    Ral 7 15 1 1 1,695 0.06%
  Total   18 43 4 18 5,522 0.33%
Super Pets T-5 Jax 6 38 5 34 4,934 0.69%
    Phx 6 24 2 38 3,615 1.05%
    Ral 7 23 11 48 3,340 1.44%
ATP: 12.63 Total   19 85 18 120 11,889 1.42%
Vengeance T-5 Jax 3 4 0 3 286 1.05%
    Phx 5 10 0 13 1,122 1.16%
    Ral 4 5 1 4 367 1.09%
  Total   12 19 1 20 1,775 1.13%

 

Decided to add Dragon Ball since anime is notoriously heavy on early presales.  Figured it would be more fun to track than everything else out there.  After just one day (I think?) it has more sales than anything else I'm tracking.

 

Super Pets T-5 comps

 - Minions 2 - missed

 - Sonic 2 - .178x (888k)

 - Bad Guys - missed

 - Jungle Cruise - .67x (1.81m)

 - Paws of Fury - 3x (1.515m)

 - Lightyear - .223x (1.09m

 

Bullet Train T-12 comps

 - Dune - missed

 - No Time to Die (Thu) - missed

 - F9 - .265x (1.88m)

 - Morbius - .336x (1.92m)

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Bullet Train T-11 Jax 7 51 5 53 9,463 0.56%
    Phx 6 28 14 108 6,087 1.77%
    Ral 8 27 7 51 3,710 1.37%
  Total   21 106 26 212 19,260 1.10%
Bullet Train (EA) T-9 Jax 5 6 1 14 1,331 1.05%
    Phx 1 1 1 14 208 6.73%
    Ral 1 1 4 14 261 5.36%
  Total   7 8 6 42 1,800 2.33%
Dragon Ball T-25 Jax 6 26 15 68 5,795 1.17%
    Phx 6 22 38 107 4,486 2.39%
    Ral 7 21 12 94 2,812 3.34%
  Total   19 69 65 269 13,093 2.05%
Easter Sunday T-11 Jax 6 15 7 18 2,232 0.81%
    Phx 5 13 0 6 1,595 0.38%
    Ral 7 15 1 2 1,695 0.12%
  Total   18 43 8 26 5,522 0.47%
Super Pets T-4 Jax 6 38 0 34 4,934 0.69%
    Phx 6 24 3 41 3,615 1.13%
    Ral 7 23 9 57 3,340 1.71%
  Total   19 85 12 132 11,889 1.11%
Vengeance T-4 Jax 3 4 1 4 286 1.40%
    Phx 5 10 0 13 1,122 1.16%
    Ral 4 5 0 4 367 1.09%
  Total   12 19 1 21 1,775 1.18%

 

Super Pets T-4 comps

 - Minions 2 - .215x (2.31m)

 - Sonic 2 - .171x (849k)

 - Bad Guys - missed

 - Jungle Cruise - .65x (1.75m)

 - Paws of Fury - 2.69x (1.36m)

 - Lightyear - missed

 - Encanto - .815x (1.22m)

 

Bullet Train T-11 comps

 - Dune - .364x (1.86m)

 - No Time to Die (Thu) - .466x (2.42m)

 - F9 - .285x (2.02m)

 - Morbius - .369x (2.11m)

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22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day Movie Format Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-0 Nope (Sat) PLF 36 468 972 8,512 11.42% $14.47 $14,066.64
    Standard 68 563 871 8,458 10.30% $10.31 $8,983.56
  Nope (Sat) Total   104 1,031 1,843 16,970 10.86% $12.51 $23,050.20
T-1 Nope (Sun) PLF 36 212 212 8,512 2.49% $14.33 $3,038.09
    Standard 68 174 174 8,458 2.06% $10.79 $1,877.33
  Nope (Sun) Total   104 386 386 16,970 2.27% $12.73 $4,915.42

 

By matinee

 

Day Movie Mat Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-0 Nope (Sat) N 56 568 1,045 9,210 11.35% $14.32 $14,965.67
    Y 48 463 798 7,760 10.28% $10.13 $8,084.53
  Nope (Sat) Total   104 1,031 1,843 16,970 10.86% $12.51 $23,050.20
T-1 Nope (Sun) N 56 183 183 9,210 1.99% $15.10 $2,763.32
    Y 48 203 203 7,760 2.62% $10.60 $2,152.10
  Nope (Sun) Total   104 386 386 16,970 2.27% $12.73 $4,915.42

 

Saturday finished a little under Friday final presales, and Sunday's are looking awful.  Only at 47% of Sat T-1, while Crawdads Sunday was at 73% already.

 

Nope Sat unadjusted comp

 - Crawdads - 2.264x (12.12m)

 

Adjusted comp

 - Crawdads - 12.996m

 

I'll go with 13m for Sat

 

Nope Sun unadjusted comp

 - Crawdads - 1.184x (5.49m)

 

Adjusted comp (using 13m Sat)

 - Crawdads - 5.88m

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day Movie Format Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-0 Nope (Sun) PLF 36 328 540 8,512 6.34% $13.88 $7,497.87
    Standard 68 354 528 8,458 6.24% $10.30 $5,440.67
  Nope (Sun) Total   104 682 1,068 16,970 6.29% $12.11 $12,938.54

 

By matinee

 

Day Movie Mat Shows New Sold True Cap % Sold ATP Gross
T-0 Nope (Sun) N 56 250 433 9,210 4.70% $14.76 $6,389.24
    Y 48 432 635 7,760 8.18% $10.31 $6,549.30
  Nope (Sun) Total   104 682 1,068 16,970 6.29% $12.11 $12,938.54

 

Nope Sun comps

 - Crawdads - 1.543x (7.153m)

 - Black Phone - 1.136x (6.67m)

 

Adjusted Sun comps

 - Crawdads - 7.95m

 - Black Phone - 9.16m

 

Nothing is comping anywhere close to what Nope has been doing.  Maybe it'll be helpful for future movies at least.

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And here I had called for a Nope Thurs/Fri of 45 million, but 44 million for the opening weekend? I was WAYYYYY off on that one. Mind you Im still very new to figure out comping and stuff, so that was probably a big part  just my lack of knowledge of how horror movies open.

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After seeing the SDCC and Disney/Marvel plans going forward, yes its safe to say that they are totally all in and doubling down on the MCU with the sheer amount of Streaming and movie properties going forward. For the box office, obviously staking their claim on lots of Tentpoles for theatres in foreseeable future. Looks like 4 MCU films (not also including Sony 2 Spider Universe films), making 6 marvel properties hitting screens in 2023. Incredible really.

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22 hours ago, Eric the Tethered said:

DC League of Super Pets Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 46 96 7397 1.30%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 22

 

Comp

0.813x of Jungle Cruise T-5 (2.2M)

0.774x of Encanto T-5 (1.16M)

0.231x of Lightyear T-5 (1.2M)

0.227x of Minions 2 T-5 (2.44M)

DC League of Super Pets Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 46 109 7397 1.47%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 13

 

Comp

0.731x of Jungle Cruise T-4 (1.97M)

0.757x of Encanto T-4 (1.13M)

0.214x of Lightyear T-4 (1.11M)

0.224x of Minions 2 T-4 (2.41M)

 

I know this is a non presales-driven movie, but this really should have picked up some momentum by now. Gonna be a pretty boring weekend if things turn out south.

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22 hours ago, Eric the Tethered said:

Bullet Train Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 75 189 16256 1.16%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 26

 

Comp

4.725x of Snake Eyes T-12 (6.61M)

0.634x of The Suicide Squad T-12 (2.6M)

0.300x of No Time to Die T-12 (1.89M)

0.264x of Dune T-12 (1.35M)

0.672x of Uncharted T-12 (2.49M)

0.357x of Fantastic Beasts 3 T-12 (2.14M)

0.122x of Top Gun 2 T-12 (2.35M)

0.103x of Jurassic World 3 T-12 (1.85M)

Bullet Train Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 75 204 16256 1.25%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 15

 

Comp

4.250x of Snake Eyes T-11 (5.95M)

0.682x of The Suicide Squad T-11 (2.8M)

0.307x of No Time to Die T-11 (1.93M)

0.271x of Dune T-11 (1.38M)

0.687x of Uncharted T-11 (2.54M)

0.341x of Fantastic Beasts 3 T-11 (2.05M)

0.124x of Top Gun 2 T-11 (2.39M)

0.110x of Jurassic World 3 T-11 (1.98M)

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4 hours ago, filmlover said:

The ads for Super-Pets have been terrible. I can buy an opening below The Bad Guys happening at this point.

WB just isn't able to sell animated movies. This studio have proved it so many times previously.

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2 hours ago, Zugres said:

WB just isn't able to sell animated movies. This studio have proved it so many times previously.

 

The way they tanked the Lego Movie franchise was nuts. People don't talk about that enough.

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26 minutes ago, AJG said:

 

The way they tanked the Lego Movie franchise was nuts. People don't talk about that enough.

I will never understand why they didn't went straight for the sequel and instead decided a 5 year gap with two spinoffs within the same year inbetween was a good idea.

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22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Bullet Train T-11 Jax 7 51 5 53 9,463 0.56%
    Phx 6 28 14 108 6,087 1.77%
    Ral 8 27 7 51 3,710 1.37%
  Total   21 106 26 212 19,260 1.10%
Bullet Train (EA) T-9 Jax 5 6 1 14 1,331 1.05%
    Phx 1 1 1 14 208 6.73%
    Ral 1 1 4 14 261 5.36%
  Total   7 8 6 42 1,800 2.33%
Dragon Ball T-25 Jax 6 26 15 68 5,795 1.17%
    Phx 6 22 38 107 4,486 2.39%
    Ral 7 21 12 94 2,812 3.34%
  Total   19 69 65 269 13,093 2.05%
Easter Sunday T-11 Jax 6 15 7 18 2,232 0.81%
    Phx 5 13 0 6 1,595 0.38%
    Ral 7 15 1 2 1,695 0.12%
  Total   18 43 8 26 5,522 0.47%
Super Pets T-4 Jax 6 38 0 34 4,934 0.69%
    Phx 6 24 3 41 3,615 1.13%
    Ral 7 23 9 57 3,340 1.71%
  Total   19 85 12 132 11,889 1.11%
Vengeance T-4 Jax 3 4 1 4 286 1.40%
    Phx 5 10 0 13 1,122 1.16%
    Ral 4 5 0 4 367 1.09%
  Total   12 19 1 21 1,775 1.18%

 

Super Pets T-4 comps

 - Minions 2 - .215x (2.31m)

 - Sonic 2 - .171x (849k)

 - Bad Guys - missed

 - Jungle Cruise - .65x (1.75m)

 - Paws of Fury - 2.69x (1.36m)

 - Lightyear - missed

 - Encanto - .815x (1.22m)

 

Bullet Train T-11 comps

 - Dune - .364x (1.86m)

 - No Time to Die (Thu) - .466x (2.42m)

 - F9 - .285x (2.02m)

 - Morbius - .369x (2.11m)

Movie Day Area TC Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Bullet Train T-10 Jax 7 51 2 55 9,463 0.58%
    Phx 6 28 4 112 6,087 1.84%
    Ral 8 27 -1 50 3,710 1.35%
  Total   21 106 5 217 19,260 1.13%
Bullet Train (EA) T-8 Jax 5 6 2 16 1,331 1.20%
    Phx 1 1 2 16 208 7.69%
    Ral 1 1 0 14 261 5.36%
  Total   7 8 4 46 1,800 2.56%
Dragon Ball T-24 Jax 6 26 9 77 5,795 1.33%
    Phx 6 22 41 148 4,486 3.30%
    Ral 7 21 11 105 2,812 3.73%
  Total   19 69 61 330 13,093 2.52%
Easter Sunday T-10 Jax 6 15 2 20 2,232 0.90%
    Phx 5 13 2 8 1,595 0.50%
    Ral 7 15 2 4 1,695 0.24%
  Total   18 43 6 32 5,522 0.58%
Super Pets T-3 Jax 6 38 7 41 4,934 0.83%
    Phx 6 24 5 46 3,615 1.27%
    Ral 7 23 30 87 3,340 2.60%
  Total   19 85 42 174 11,889 1.46%
Vengeance T-3 Jax 3 4 5 9 286 3.15%
    Phx 5 10 0 13 1,122 1.16%
    Ral 4 5 1 5 367 1.36%
  Total   12 19 6 27 1,775 1.52%

 

Super Pets T-3 comps

 - Minions 2 - .214x (2.3m)

 - Sonic 2 - .197x (979k)

 - Bad Guys - 1.81x (2.08m)

 - Jungle Cruise - .728x (1.966m)

 - Paws of Fury - 3.22x (1.63m)

 - Lightyear - .24x (1.17m)

 - Encanto - .911x (1.366m)

 

Bullet Train (Thu) T-10 comps

 - Dune - .336x (1.71m)

 - NTTD (Thu) - .46x (2.39m)

 - F9 - .269x (1.91m)

 - Morbius - .354x (2.02m)

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