The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[TwoMisfits]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Beast looks like perfect "dog days of summer" fodder. If it gets average reviews or better I can see it making some dollars during what's going to be a slow period otherwise.

 

It looks like an AMC/Regal "gotta see something this weekend" subscriber movie...now that the subscriber bases are regrowing (and we have evidence of that with Cinemark releasing their 1M subscriber count this June), the floors for decent enough, entertaining enough young male-drawing movies will be higher...(PS - I suspect unlimited movie subscribers at the big 2 skew male young and female old, but I'd love to know if those big chains would ever release their numbers)...

[stripe]

19 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Samaritan is a streaming release now.

 

The-numbers still has it scheduled as a wide release... Well, even more shitty numbers for that weekend then

[Inceptionzq]

16 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Nope Megaplex

 

T-1 Friday(109 showings): 673(+285)/28032

0.952x Scream T-1 (9.40M)

0.644x Halloween Kills T-1 (11.60M)

Nope Megaplex

 

T-0 Friday(109 showings): 975(+302)/28032

1.03x Scream T-0 (10.14M)

0.678x Halloween Kills T-0 (12.20M)

 

16 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Nope Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-1 Friday(315 showings): 12235(+2657)/43023 ATP: $15.65

2.30x Scream T-1 (22.69M)

Nope Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-0 Friday(315 showings): 15135(+2900)/43023 ATP: $15.44

2.32x Scream T-0 (22.88M)

[Krissykins]

43 minutes ago, Eric the Tethered said:

I...kinda think Beast has potential for high teens, maybe even 20M. There's zero competition apart from Bullet Train, and this offers some schlocky late summer fun in an empty marketplace. Crawl opened to 12M, so like 18M makes sense considering it has bigger star power.

I think Beast looks great fun, I love a creature feature. Crawl was fantastic. 
 

Beast, similarly to Crawl, has one of those “you can explain the plot in 5 words” hooks. I think it could do well. 

[AJG]

15 hours ago, motionpic05 said:

I know trailer views doesn't connect to box office numbers

But, is 1.8 million viewers low for Halloween Ends (uploaded about 48 hours ago)?

Universal use bots for their trailer views. Ignore them either way.

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Nope	PLF	21	297	810	5,307	15.26%	$15.50	$12,557.41
		Standard	42	208	461	4,739	9.73%	$11.40	$5,253.45
	Nope Total		63	505	1,271	10,046	12.65%	$14.01	$17,810.86
T-1	Nope (Fri)	PLF	36	194	553	8,512	6.50%	$15.45	$8,542.55
		Standard	68	152	333	8,458	3.94%	$11.21	$3,733.11
	Nope (Fri) Total		104	346	886	16,970	5.22%	$13.86	$12,275.66

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Nope	N	53	463	1,141	8,143	14.01%	$14.40	$16,431.91
		Y	10	42	130	1,903	6.83%	$10.61	$1,378.95
	Nope Total		63	505	1,271	10,046	12.65%	$14.01	$17,810.86
T-1	Nope (Fri)	N	56	302	761	9,210	8.26%	$14.45	$10,992.98
		Y	48	44	125	7,760	1.61%	$10.26	$1,282.68
	Nope (Fri) Total		104	346	886	16,970	5.22%	$13.86	$12,275.66

 

Final run for Santikos previews so I'll add more comps in.

 

Nope T-0 comps

 - Crawdads - 2.47x (4.95m)

 - Morbius - .645x (3.68m)

 - Northman - 5.5x (7.43m)

 - Black Phone - 1.686x (4.38m)

 - Elvis - .916x (2.93m)

 - TG2 - .249x (3.65m)

 - JW3 - .142x (2.56m)

 

I think we can safely say that San Antonio is not as interested in this movie as some of the other areas.  Purely based on this chain (and the top four comps), I'd forecast a preview of around 5.4m. 

 

Friday sales had a really good day, and are now ahead of preview T-1 sales by 16%, but TG and JW3 had increased the gap to 40%.  Looking at growth rate comparisons from T-1 to T-0 between preview and Friday sales for other movies, I'd estimate Friday sales end around 1850 tomorrow.  Assuming that the other areas are right about previews (~6.5m), I'd get an adjusted Friday of ~13m.

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Nope (Fri)	PLF	36	522	1,075	8,512	12.63%	$15.25	$16,398.37
		Standard	69	445	778	8,534	9.12%	$10.70	$8,328.35
	Nope (Fri) Total		105	967	1,853	17,046	10.87%	$13.34	$24,726.72

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Nope (Fri)	N	57	691	1,452	9,286	15.64%	$14.26	$20,701.63
		Y	48	276	401	7,760	5.17%	$10.04	$4,025.09
	Nope (Fri) Total		105	967	1,853	17,046	10.87%	$13.34	$24,726.72

 

Well, I guess it hit my projected total with three tickets to spare.  

 

Nope Fri unadjusted comps

 - Crawdads - 2.33x (12.255m)

 - Morbius - .751x (8.717m)

 

Every other movie comps out below 8m for true Friday.  That being said, most of the preview comps finished in the 3-4m range when the actual was 6.4m. 

 

Adjusted Fri comps

 - Crawdads - 15.86m

 - Morbius - 15.17m

 

I'll go with 15.4m for true Friday.

[keysersoze123]

Nope Friday MTC1 Presales - 90765/911323 1497702.87 4995 shows

 

if it doubles from this it will have 12m true friday. I hope it goes higher than that.

 

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Nope Friday MTC1 Presales - 90765/911323 1497702.87 4995 shows

 

if it doubles from this it will have 12m true friday. I hope it goes higher than that.

 

Added 36K since last update. Is it from last night or today morning. I think 210-220K may be. $14-15M possible.

[keysersoze123]

Just now, charlie Jatinder said:

Added 36K since last update. Is it from last night or today morning. I think 210-220K may be. $14-15M possible.

overnight. Probably finished around 1AM PST. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

46 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Nope (Fri)	PLF	36	522	1,075	8,512	12.63%	$15.25	$16,398.37
		Standard	69	445	778	8,534	9.12%	$10.70	$8,328.35
	Nope (Fri) Total		105	967	1,853	17,046	10.87%	$13.34	$24,726.72

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Nope (Fri)	N	57	691	1,452	9,286	15.64%	$14.26	$20,701.63
		Y	48	276	401	7,760	5.17%	$10.04	$4,025.09
	Nope (Fri) Total		105	967	1,853	17,046	10.87%	$13.34	$24,726.72

 

Well, I guess it hit my projected total with three tickets to spare.  

 

Nope Fri unadjusted comps

 - Crawdads - 2.33x (12.255m)

 - Morbius - .751x (8.717m)

 

Every other movie comps out below 8m for true Friday.  That being said, most of the preview comps finished in the 3-4m range when the actual was 6.4m. 

 

Adjusted Fri comps

 - Crawdads - 15.86m

 - Morbius - 15.17m

 

I'll go with 15.4m for true Friday.

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Nope (Sat)	PLF	36	504	504	8,512	5.92%	$14.69	$7,401.26
		Standard	68	308	308	8,458	3.64%	$10.35	$3,188.07
	Nope (Sat) Total		104	812	812	16,970	4.78%	$13.04	$10,589.33

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Nope (Sat)	N	56	477	477	9,210	5.18%	$14.90	$7,108.09
		Y	48	335	335	7,760	4.32%	$10.39	$3,481.24
	Nope (Sat) Total		104	812	812	16,970	4.78%	$13.04	$10,589.33

 

At about 92% of where Friday was at T-1, very similar to Crawdads.  

 

Unadjusted Sat comp

 - Crawdads - 1.83x (9.79m)

 

Going by Crawdads final day increase as compared to its Friday increase, we'd get around 1925 sales total for Saturday which would comp out to a 12.7m Saturday (14m adjusted).  These are rough numbers though and I'm adjusting by my projected Fri gross.

[M37]

16 hours ago, Porthos said:

All in all, gonna split the difference between NTTD and TSS and go for 6.5m +/-.3m.

11 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

10K is happening. Nice. $6M+ is a lock. Possibly $6.5-7M. Will check in detail later.

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Walkups were not great. ~6m previews and mid 40s OW.

 

With a reported $6.4M for Nope, another win for tracking

 

18 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Using this chart along with the other comps, I'll put my final preview prediction at 5.6m

18 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Nope should have better walkups than these comps considering they all started previews at 7PM. Reviews are good which certainly doesn't hurt. I'll go with 6M flat

 

But these final results also demonstrate both the nuance and team effort required: having samples that came in softer than some of the larger/higher profile ones helped to temper expectations, essentially shifting the pinpoint estimates from the midpoint to the higher end of the range

[Porthos]

Good going, Sacto.  Came through for me once again! 👍

 

Considering how small my current post-'rona tracking set is when it comes to R rated films, never mind horror, I consider this a resounding success (if not quite bullseye worthy).

 

See y'all in...  God, I don't know.  Sometime in Late September/ Early October or so, maybe? Depends on whether or not I track Black Adam and/or something else looks track worthy between now and then.

 

(Maaaaaaaybe Halloween Ends due to 'finale factor', but that is probs more the occasional Quick and Dirty passing hit rather than a sustained track)

Edited July 22, 2022 by Porthos

[titanic2187]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Nope thursday Previews

MTC1 - 120210/486722 1960108.02 2765 shows

MTC2 - 77294/341541 994960.93 2316 shows

 

Walkups were not great. ~6m previews and mid 40s OW.

It seem to me the movie didn't have typical late night bump for horror movie, maybe people are readjusting their expectation of what is Nope about.  

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Nope Megaplex

 

T-2 Saturday(109 showings): 252(+118)/27958

0.750x Scream T-2 (7.63M)

0.635x Halloween Kills T-2 (10.99M)

 

T-3 Sunday(105 showings): 102(+43)/27171

0.850x Scream T-3 (5.49M)

0.843x Halloween Kills T-3 (7.80M)

Nope Megaplex

 

T-1 Saturday(109 showings): 462(+210)/27958

0.928x Scream T-1 (9.43M)

0.809x Halloween Kills T-1 (14.01M)

 

T-2 Sunday(105 showings): 148(+46)/27171

0.955x Scream T-2 (6.17M)

0.860x Halloween Kills T-2 (7.96M)

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Nope Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-2 Saturday(335 showings): 10121(+2207)/45395 ATP: $15.16

2.70x Scream T-2 (27.51M)

 

T-3 Sunday(276 showings): 5605(+1143)/38482 ATP: $15.25

3.15x Scream T-3 (20.38M)

Nope Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-1 Saturday(335 showings): 13780(+3659)/45395 ATP: $14.97

2.77x Scream T-2 (28.16M)

 

T-2 Sunday(276 showings): 7575(+1970)/38482 ATP: $15.05

3.34x Scream T-3 (21.60M)

[filmlover]

Tickets for Dragonball are officially on sale (it's getting IMAX/PLF screens everywhere that weekend).

[Eric the Ape]

On 7/21/2022 at 11:37 PM, Eric the Tethered said:

DC League of Super Pets Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	42	62	6629	0.94%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 8

 

Comp

0.689x of Jungle Cruise T-7 (1.86M)

0.747x of Encanto T-7 (1.12M)

0.207x of Lightyear T-7 (1.08M)

0.196x of Minions 2 T-7 (2.11M)

DC League of Super Pets Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	42	74	6629	1.12%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 12

 

Comp

0.643x of Jungle Cruise T-6 (1.74M)

0.691x of Encanto T-6 (1.04M)

0.203x of Lightyear T-6 (1.06M)

0.215x of Minions 2 T-6 (2.31M)

[Eric the Ape]

On 7/21/2022 at 11:46 PM, Eric the Tethered said:

Bullet Train Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	75	132	16256	0.81%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 29

 

Comp

0.502x of The Suicide Squad T-14 (2.06M)

0.541x of Uncharted T-14 (2M)

0.300x of Fantastic Beasts 3 T-14 (1.8M)

0.099x of Top Gun 2 T-14 (1.91M)

0.079x of Jurassic World 3 T-14 (1.42M)

Bullet Train Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	75	163	16256	1.00%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 31

 

Comp

0.593x of The Suicide Squad T-13 (2.43M)

0.610x of Uncharted T-13 (2.26M)

0.329x of Fantastic Beasts 3 T-13 (1.97M)

0.113x of Top Gun 2 T-13 (2.18M)

0.093x of Jurassic World 3 T-13 (1.68M)

[keysersoze123]

Nope MTC1 Friday - 229453/921485 3514697.85 5119 shows

 

Reallly good. Definitely close to 15m true friday based on MTC1. 

Edited July 23, 2022 by keysersoze123

[charlie Jatinder]

16 hours ago, Porthos said:

Good going, Sacto.  Came through for me once again! 👍

 

Considering how small my current post-'rona tracking set is when it comes to R rated films, never mind horror, I consider this a resounding success (if not quite bullseye worthy).

 

See y'all in...  God, I don't know.  Sometime in Late September/ Early October or so, maybe? Depends on whether or not I track Black Adam and/or something else looks track worthy between now and then.

 

(Maaaaaaaybe Halloween Ends due to 'finale factor', but that is probs more the occasional Quick and Dirty passing hit rather than a sustained track)

Porthos I think we neee you more often. Probably retire daily tracking for smaller stuff and do a quick & dirty check weekly?