The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Legion Again]

Just now, Maggie said:

How small? Aren't predictions in the 30sM area?

BOP has 28-34, which is way too small for Sacto 

[Maggie]

Just now, Legion and Thunder said:

BOP has 28-34, which is way too small for Sacto 

I see. Well, waiting for @Eric the Tethered's update

[el sid]

The Nope Friday presales have to be enough today because we have several real experts here for precise preview predictions and I was also interested to see how Bullet Train started in my theaters (good, if you look down).

Nope, counted today at 9am EST for tomorrow:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 441 (11 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 269 (14 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 44 (13 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 21 (6 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 114 (12 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 624 (12 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 1.451 (18 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 2.964.

Up solid 23% since yesterday.
Comps (all counted on Thursday for Friday): Old (16.9M OW) had 500 sold tickets,

Crawdads had 262 (in 6 theaters),

The Invisible Man (28.2M) had 894,

Candyman (22M OW) had 656,

Halloween Kills (49.4M OW) 1.575 had = x1.88 = 92.6M

and Scream (30M OW) had 1.409 sold tickets = x2.1 = 63M.

 

So all of my comps suggest an opening of 60M+. What bothers me a little bit is that it looks way better in California than in all other regions (and I noticed that the numbers of @Rorschach look similar). But I'm very confident that 50M+ OW will happen and also a way better opening is in the cards (e.g. look at the Halloween Kills comp).

Edited July 21, 2022 by el sid

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

So if Nope goes over 60m+.. Peele will have 2 of the biggest opening original films ever (live action), right?

 

That's amazing

[el sid]

Bullet Train, counted today at 9am EST for Thursday, August 4:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 56 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 36 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 2 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): no showtimes so far
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 7 (6 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 88 (9 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 98 (11 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 287.
Comps: The Black Phone (23.6M OW) had after 1 day on sale 95 sold tickets for Thursday

and The Lost City had with 12 days left 110 sold tickets.

 

Bullet Train, counted today at 9am EST for Friday, August 5 (15 days left):

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 55 (8 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 40 (11 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 0 (8 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): no showtimes so far
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 3 (8 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 52 (12 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 45 (14 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 195.

Comps: The Black Phone had after 1 day on sale 34 sold tickets for Friday

and The Lost City had with 13 days left 209 sold tickets.

Edited July 21, 2022 by el sid

[Ryan Reynolds]

24 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

So if Nope goes over 60m+.. Peele will have 2 of the biggest opening original films ever (live action), right?

 

That's amazing

Inception   Avatar did over 60m

Edited July 21, 2022 by Ryan Reynolds

[Maggie]

18 minutes ago, el sid said:

Bullet Train, counted today at 9am EST for Thursday, August 4:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 56 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 36 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 2 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): no showtimes so far
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 7 (6 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 88 (9 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 98 (11 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 287.
Comps: The Black Phone (23.6M OW) had after 1 day on sale 95 sold tickets for Thursday

and The Lost City had with 12 days left 110 sold tickets.

 

Bullet Train, counted today at 9am EST for Friday, August 5 (15 days left):

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 55 (8 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 40 (11 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 0 (8 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): no showtimes so far
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 3 (8 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 52 (12 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 45 (14 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 195.

Comps: The Black Phone had after 1 day on sale 34 sold tickets for Friday

and The Lost City had with 13 days left 209 sold tickets.

So 30M for Bullet Train? Seems about right

[Borf the Borf]

1 hour ago, el sid said:

The Nope Friday presales have to be enough today because we have several real experts here for precise preview predictions and I was also interested to see how Bullet Train started in my theaters (good, if you look down).

Nope, counted today at 9am EST for tomorrow:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 441 (11 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 269 (14 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 44 (13 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 21 (6 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 114 (12 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 624 (12 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 1.451 (18 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 2.964.

Up solid 23% since yesterday.
Comps (all counted on Thursday for Friday): Old (16.9M OW) had 500 sold tickets,

Crawdads had 262 (in 6 theaters),

The Invisible Man (28.2M) had 894,

Candyman (22M OW) had 656,

Halloween Kills (49.4M OW) 1.575 had = x1.88 = 92.6M

and Scream (30M OW) had 1.409 sold tickets = x2.1 = 63M.

 

So all of my comps suggest an opening of 60M+. What bothers me a little bit is that it looks way better in California than in all other regions (and I noticed that the numbers of @Rorschach look similar). But I'm very confident that 50M+ OW will happen and also a way better opening is in the cards (e.g. look at the Halloween Kills comp).

Little rose tinted view tehre  ther eare some serious red flags in that data simply being ignored.

Edited July 21, 2022 by Borf the Borf
spelling

[Old Spice]

Salt Lake Valley report for Nope with two new theaters added!

 

Added: Cinemark XDs in Draper (south of SLC) and Farmington (north of SLC). My theater, Sugarhouse, is non-PLF and skews liberal and older (boomers), while the two new ones are pure suburbia; young, largely LDS families with a conservative bent. Hopefully, casting a wider net will help me avoid any more egregious misses like I had with FB3 and Crawdads.

 

As for Nope, it's looking to finish strong. Total tix sold for preview night:

Sugarhouse- 113

Draper- 73

Farmington- 115

 

Sugarhouse comps:

Elvis ($4.16)

Thor (6.55)

Batman (5.8)

Halloween Kills (6.09)

Dominion (5.59)

 

I'll go with 6.2 and 51.

 

 

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

8 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Nope	T-0	Jax	6	55	183	584	9,091	6.42%
		Phx	6	41	213	698	6,484	10.76%
		Ral	8	48	222	702	5,329	13.17%
ATP: 14.31	Total		20	144	618	1,984	20,904	9.49%

 

Nope T-0 comps

 - Ghostbusters - 1.107x (4.594m)

 - NTTD - .882x (4.587m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.566x (6.42m)

 - F9 - .649x (4.607m)

 - Morbius - .885x (5.05m)

 - Dune - .897x (4.57m)

 - Halloween Kills - 1.09x (5.31m)

 - Venom 2 - .53x (6.15m)

 - Scream 5 - 1.42x (4.97m)

 

Three day pace is just ahead of Venom at 58.8% (compared to 57.4%).  Really solid day overall as expected for horror; should have great walkups today as well.  Still a lot of comps pointing to a <5m number but I'll bump my forecast to around 5.5m assuming it keeps the momentum today.  

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Nope	1-Hr	Jax	6	55	305	889	9,091	9.78%
		Phx	6	41	193	891	6,484	13.74%
		Ral	8	49	423	1,125	5,381	20.91%
ATP: 14.10	Total		20	145	921	2,905	20,956	13.86%

 

Solid final day of sales that brought most of my comps to my forecasted range.

 

Nope T-1 hr comps

 - Ghostbusters - 1.22x (5.06m)

 - NTTD - 1.064x (5.53m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.484x (6.08m)

 - F9 - .757x (5.38m)

 - Morbius - .985x (5.38m)

 - Dune - 1.056x (5.387m)

 - Halloween Kills - 1.165x (5.65m)

 - Venom 2 - missed

 - Scream 5 - missed

 - Candyman - 3.124x (5.93m)

All horror movies - 6.47m

All 4pm preview movies - 5.68m

All R movies - 5.71m

All movies - 5.76m

 

The all horror comp really sticks out, but that includes much smaller releases like Antlers, The Night House, DB2, ER2 and Forever Purge.   Something I've been doing recently is looking at the closest movies in terms of final tickets sold, regardless of genre.

 

Movie	Preview	T-1 hr	Comp
F9: The Fast Saga	7,100,000	3,836	5,376,825
Fantastic Beasts 3	6,000,000	3,445	5,059,507
Morbius	5,700,000	2,950	5,613,051
Nope		2,905
Dune	5,100,000	2,750	5,387,455
No Time to Die	5,200,000	2,731	5,531,307
Halloween Kills	4,850,000	2,493	5,651,524
Lightyear	4,900,000	2,483	5,732,783

 

Using this chart along with the other comps, I'll put my final preview prediction at 5.6m

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

49 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Inception   Avatar did over 60m

I didn't mean THE 2 biggest, I just meant 2 OF the biggest. Like some of them. Us and Nope if it does hit 60. I don't think anyone else has that?

 

Biggest original openings live action since Avatar

Avatar- 77m (James Cameron)

Us- 71.1m (Jordan Peele)

2012- 65.2m (Roland Emmerich)

Inception- 62.7m (Christopher Nolan)

Valentine's Day- 56.2m (Garry Marshall)

Gravity- 55.7m (Alfonso Cuaron)

San Andreas- 54.5m (Brad Peyton)

Ted- 54.4m (Seth MacFarlane)

Dunkirk- 50.5m (Christopher Nolan) (while based on true events, it is technically an original script)

Neighbors- 49m (Nicholas Stoller)

 

Interstellar just missed with 47.5m

 

Others:

The Hangover- 44.9m (Todd Phillips)

Lucy- 43.8m (Luc Besson)

Ride Along- 41.5m (Tim Story)

The Vow- 41.2m (Michael Sucsy) (true story)

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood- 41m (Quentin Tarantino) (like Dunkirk, technically original)

[Inceptionzq]

On 7/20/2022 at 3:41 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Nope Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-1 Thursday(184 showings): 8468(+1534)/25441 ATP: $15.56

1.97x Scream T-1 (6.89M)

 

T-2 Friday(315 showings): 9578(+2255)/43023 ATP: $15.81

2.27x Scream T-2 (22.42M)

 

T-3 Saturday(335 showings): 7914(+1828)/45395 ATP: $15.25

2.65x Scream T-3 (26.99M)

 

T-4 Sunday(276 showings): 4462(+1070)/38482 ATP: $15.20

2.93x Scream T-4 (18.94M)

Nope Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-0 Thursday(184 showings): 11814(+3346)/25441 ATP: $15.34

1.98x Scream T-0 (6.93M)

 

T-1 Friday(315 showings): 12235(+2657)/43023 ATP: $15.65

2.30x Scream T-1 (22.69M)

 

T-2 Saturday(335 showings): 10121(+2207)/45395 ATP: $15.16

2.70x Scream T-2 (27.51M)

 

T-3 Sunday(276 showings): 5605(+1143)/38482 ATP: $15.25

3.15x Scream T-3 (20.38M)

[Inceptionzq]

On 7/20/2022 at 3:37 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Nope Megaplex

 

T-1 Thursday(55 showings): 557(+189)/17291

1.19x Scream T-1 (4.15M)

1.27x Halloween Kills T-1 (6.15M)

1.19x Suicide Squad T-1 (4.89M)

 

T-2 Friday(109 showings): 388(+118)/28032

0.746x Scream T-2 (7.37M)

0.538x Halloween Kills T-2 (9.69M)

0.882x Suicide Squad T-2 (7.05M)

 

T-3 Saturday(109 showings): 134(+47)/27958

0.545x Scream T-3 (5.54M)

0.473x Halloween Kills T-3 (8.20M)

 

T-4 Sunday(105 showings): 59(+25)/27171

0.608x Scream T-4 (3.93M)

0.756x Halloween Kills T-4 (7.00M)

Nope Megaplex

 

T-0 Thursday(55 showings): 1220(+663)/17291

1.28x Scream T-0 (4.48M)

1.20x Halloween Kills T-0 (5.81M)

1.18x Suicide Squad T-0 (4.82M)

 

T-1 Friday(109 showings): 673(+285)/28032

0.952x Scream T-1 (9.40M)

0.644x Halloween Kills T-1 (11.60M)

 

T-2 Saturday(109 showings): 252(+118)/27958

0.750x Scream T-2 (7.63M)

0.635x Halloween Kills T-2 (10.99M)

 

T-3 Sunday(105 showings): 102(+43)/27171

0.850x Scream T-3 (5.49M)

0.843x Halloween Kills T-3 (7.80M)

[Inceptionzq]

On 7/20/2022 at 3:32 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Nope Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

287

1796

15.98%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

284

2004

14.17%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1408	253	19399	7.26%	15	100

 

AMCs sold	1014
Cinemarks sold	162
Regals sold	148
Harkins sold	84

 

1.33x Scream T-1 (4.64M)

1.56x Halloween Kills T-1 (7.65M)

1.57x Suicide Squad T-1 (6.43M)

Nope Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

421

1796

23.44%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

393

2226

17.65%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2546	1138	19572	13.01%	15	103

 

AMCs sold	1506
Cinemarks sold	375
Regals sold	423
Harkins sold	242

 

1.47x Scream T-0 (5.14M)

1.18x Halloween Kills T-0 (5.77M)

4.75x Candyman T-0 (8.08M)

1.29x Suicide Squad T-0 (5.29M)

 

Nope should have better walkups than these comps considering they all started previews at 7PM. Reviews are good which certainly doesn't hurt. I'll go with 6M flat

[Eric the Ape]

18 hours ago, Eric the Tethered said:

Nope Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	104	1744	19444	8.97%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 489

 

Comp

0.690x of F9 T-1 (4.9M)

0.659x of Space Jam 2 Wednesday Before Release (8.64M)

2.902x of Candyman T-1 (5.51M)

0.991x of Halloween Kills T-1 (4.81M)

1.248x of Scream T-1 (4.37M)

2.373x of The Black Phone T-1 (7.12M)

Nope Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	104	3157	19444	16.24%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 1,413

 

Comp

0.696x of F9 (4.94M)

0.714x of Space Jam 2 (9.36M)

2.231x of Candyman (4.24M)

1.098x of Halloween Kills (5.32M)

1.452x of Scream (5.08M)

2.372x of The Black Phone (7.11M)

 

Yeah I dunno why these numbers seem so soft, since this should have been huge in Philly. Maybe it was the desert setting? I dunno. Or maybe it's a premonition 😱

[motionpic05]

I really hope NOPE reaches at least $50M OW this weekend..

Walk-Ups don't seem as strong as anticipated..

[Ronin46]

I was thinking 7/55 but will scale back to 6.5/50.

[Grebacio]

Verified Audience score for Nope starts at 67% and All Audiences at 63%. There are still less than 50 votes for both, so it can widely change.

[XXR vs XXR]

I’m curious how frontloaded Nope will be. I have a hard time seeing it with a higher IM than The Black Phone, given “director driven” properties tend to have an IP-like frontload. I’m going with 7-7.5x whatever previews ends up being.

[John2015]

Focus will open "Vengeance" in about 900 theaters.

(Surprisingly, the film has weaker TV marketing than "Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris"...)