The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[titanic2187]

27 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

With 6.5M it should get there 

 

7.6x for an original movie is already frontloaded enough, even considering Peele brand 

 

With 6M tho probably 45-46M

But even BP got “only” 7.8x, although that was with some small scale early access. And that is with a more accessible word of mouth. 

[filmlover]

Marcel expands to 600 theaters on the dot this weekend.

 

Next week is 4,200 for Super-Pets and 900 for Vengeance (dumps away!).

 

Theater counts: Thor once again dominates as Nope touches down in 3,785 theaters - The Numbers (the-numbers.com)

[Eric Duncan]

23 hours ago, Eric the Tethered said:

DC League of Super Pets Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	42	54	6629	0.81%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 6

 

Comp

0.701x of Jungle Cruise T-8 (1.89M)

0.651x of Encanto T-8 (976K)

0.207x of Lightyear T-8 (1.08M)

0.213x of Minions 2 T-8 (2.29M)

DC League of Super Pets Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	42	62	6629	0.94%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 8

 

Comp

0.689x of Jungle Cruise T-7 (1.86M)

0.747x of Encanto T-7 (1.12M)

0.207x of Lightyear T-7 (1.08M)

0.196x of Minions 2 T-7 (2.11M)

[Eric Duncan]

23 hours ago, Eric the Tethered said:

Bullet Train Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	75	103	16256	0.63%

 

Comp

0.414x of The Suicide Squad T-15 (1.7M)

0.470x of Uncharted T-15 (1.74M)

0.288x of Fantastic Beasts 3 T-15 (1.73M)

0.083x of Top Gun 2 T-15 (1.6M)

 

Kind of hard to really comp with this, because I don't have any originals that I tracked for the long-term apart from Lost City, which has a totally different audience. But I guess these comps could be worse for the time being.

Bullet Train Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	75	132	16256	0.81%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 29

 

Comp

0.502x of The Suicide Squad T-14 (2.06M)

0.541x of Uncharted T-14 (2M)

0.300x of Fantastic Beasts 3 T-14 (1.8M)

0.099x of Top Gun 2 T-14 (1.91M)

0.079x of Jurassic World 3 T-14 (1.42M)

[crazymoviekid]

 

At my 2 local NJ theaters, this is looking like to be a big 'Yep' from audiences.  Just not as big as Us.

 

Thursday:

Ticket Solds      Total Seats        Capacity

Theater 1:

151

892

16.93%

Theater 2:

123

580

21.21%

 

The Black Phone Comp: $7.03M (2.34x)

Jurassic World Dominion Comp: $11.50M (.6389x)

Elvis Comp: $7.92M (2.26x)

 

Friday:

Ticket Solds      Total Seats        Capacity

Theater 1:

162

1193

13.58%

 

Theater 2:

100

814

12.29%

 

The Black Phone Comp: $14.82M (2.05x)

Jurassic World Dominion Comp: $14.02M (.337x)

Elvis Comp: $9.94M (1.07x)

 

The Black Phone Comp: $21.85M (2.13x)

Jurassic World Dominion Comp: $25.52M (.428x)

Elvis Comp: $17.86M (1.4x)

 

It's still looking like The Black Phone is the best comparison.  We're banking on Nope to have strong Friday walk-ups.  If true, the True Friday from JWD and Elvis will increase.  Yet, since Nope has a "Peele" brand, there could be some front-loadedness that can skew it lower than TBP on Friday.  There are several tracks Nope can go down and everyone is exciting.

 

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

At 07:35 PM PST, 8477/48710 (173 showings) $104,141

 

Added 2.2K in last 3 hours. 9.5k final possible. Quite normal day unlike some other places.

At 10 PM PST, 9869/48841 (174 showings) $121,092

 

10K is happening. Nice. $6M+ is a lock. Possibly $6.5-7M. Will check in detail later.

[Porthos]

3 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

$6M+ is a lock. Possibly $6.5-7M. Will check in detail later.

 

 

 

 

Spoiler

Mind, if it isn't 6m+, just ignore this post. 

 

Edited July 22, 2022 by Porthos

[M37]

9 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Denver HK isn't over $9M. 🤔 The actual comp is $5.77M, with +10% it will be $6.3M.

You are correct - looks like I had entered the Dune sales number for that day instead of HK final. Lowers the average to $6.6M, making $7M probably even less likely, but doesn't really alter analysis

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 7/15/2022 at 7:48 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	TC	Shows	Change*	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Thor 4	3,530	116,663	-26.99%	93,610	739.43	23,053	4,609	10,990
Minions 2	3,338	69,752	-27.36%	67,037	480.37	2,715	0	2,548
Crawdads Sing	3,126	53,855		53,739		116	0	0
Paws of Fury	2,971	50,995		49,434		1,561	0	0
Top Gun 2	2,821	34,937	-15.47%	34,780	375.16	157	6	0
Elvis	2,785	27,861	-18.27%	27,791	328.01	70	0	0
The Black Phone	2,083	23,098	-25.94%	23,048	249.50	50	0	0
Jurassic World 3	2,294	22,516	-28.22%	22,254	274.14	262	0	205
Mrs. Harris	935	13,334		13,322		12	0	0
Lightyear	1,058	7,900	-59.81%	7,885	156.75	15	0	9
The Gray Man	410	6,113		6,104		9	0	0
Gabby Giffords	265	3,922		3,922		0	0	0
Marcel the Shell	136	2,064	196.98%	2,064	463.55	0	0	0
Mr. Malcolm's List	148	609	-86.38%	609	57.05	0	0	0

*Updated reporting to exclude previews from week two change*

 

OW shows comps

Crawdads Sing 7/13 EA - 284 (232 TC)

Where the Crawdads Sing - 53,855 (3,126 TC)

 - Death on the Nile - 56,756 (2,935)

 - Ambulance - 51,310 (2,947)

 - Dear Evan Hansen - 50,762 (2,985)

 - Old - 56,613 (2,958)

Paws of Fury - 50,995 (2,971 TC)

 - Sing 2 - 55,966 (3,331)

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris - 13,334 (935 TC)

 - Wolf and the Lion - 12,069 (938)

 - Family Camp - 13,401 (851)

 - Joe Bell - 13,994 (1,083)

The Gray Man - 6,113 (410 TC)

 - The Contractor - 6,356 (478)

 - Titane - 6,186 (521)

 

T-1 Week

Nope - 52,246 (2,594) (12,231 PLF)

 - Dune - 45,388 (2,771) (7,798 IMAX)

 - Uncharted - 50,667 (2,672) (11,420)

 - Sonic 2 - 51,242 (2,764) (6,217)

 

T-2 Weeks Previews

Super-Pets - 7,321 (1,843 TC)

 - Sonic 2 - 7,979 (2,389)

 - Uncharted - 7,459 (2,177)

Vengeance - 838 (455 TC)

 - Nightmare Alley - 980 (567)

 - Journal for Jordan - 882 (353)

 

T-3 Weeks Previews

Easter Sunday - 4,346 (1,586 TC)

 - Elvis - 4,418 (1,813)

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Nope	3,333	105,754		91,661		14,093	5,034	0
Thor 4	3,480	66,410	-43.08%	63,993	399.72	2,417	18	1,332
Minions 2	3,167	57,722	-17.25%	56,144	384.77	1,578	6	1,346
Crawdads Sing	3,092	40,062	-12.31%	39,966	320.36	96	0	0
Top Gun 2	2,694	32,684	-6.45%	32,525	351.17	159	21	0
Paws of Fury	2,929	30,135	-30.24%	30,077	123.78	58	0	0
Elvis	2,593	24,185	-13.19%	24,127	287.17	58	0	0
The Black Phone	1,819	17,876	-22.61%	17,835	232.60	41	0	0
Jurassic World 3	1,865	15,737	-30.11%	15,548	228.83	189	0	132
Mrs. Harris	927	9,925	-17.18%	9,913	146.47	12	0	0
Marcel the Shell	524	7,388	257.95%	7,388	275.15	0	0	0
Lightyear	538	3,709	-53.05%	3,706	177.28	3	0	0
Shamshera	323	2,889		2,889		0	0	0
The Gray Man	278	2,215	-58.81%	2,208		7	0	0
Thank You	266	2,538		2,538		0	0	0

 

US showtime sample for 7/22/22 weekend

 

OW shows comps

Nope - 105,754 (3,333) (14,093 PLF)

 - FB3 - 108,862 (3,417) (13,126)

 - No Time to Die - 112,174 (3,529) (6,225 IMAX)

 - Suicide Squad - 99,553 (3,252) (4,272 IMAX)

 

T-1 Week

Super-Pets - 41,515 (2,437 TC)

 - Lost City - 38,802 (2,634)

 - Sonic 2 - 51,242 (2,764)

Vengeance - 9,512 (658 TC)

 - The Outfit - 9,823 (821)

 - The King's Daughter - 10,270 (815)

 

T-2 Weeks Previews

Bullet Train 8/2 EA - 670 (608 TC)

Bullet Train - 8,244 (1,877 TC)

 - Nope - 8,442 (2,194)

 - Sonic 2 - 7,979 (2,389)

Easter Sunday - 4,712 (1,706 TC)

 - Crawdads - 5,157 (1,803)

 - Black Phone - 4,684 (1,873)

 - Bad Guys - 4,606 (1,929)

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 7/21/2022 at 9:16 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Bullet Train	T-14	Jax	7	51	30	30	9,463	0.32%
		Phx	6	29	66	66	6,197	1.07%
		Ral	8	27	30	30	3,710	0.81%
	Total		21	107	126	126	19,370	0.65%
Bullet Train (EA)	T-12	Jax	5	6	4	4	1,331	0.30%
		Phx	1	1	3	3	208	1.44%
		Ral	1	1	2	2	261	0.77%
	Total		7	8	9	9	1,800	0.50%
Easter Sunday	T-14	Jax	6	15	0	5	2,232	0.22%
		Phx	5	13	-1	6	1,595	0.38%
		Ral	7	15	0	0	1,695	0.00%
	Total		18	43	-1	11	5,522	0.20%
Super Pets	T-7	Jax	6	38	2	20	4,934	0.41%
		Phx	6	25	-1	35	3,725	0.94%
		Ral	7	23	3	20	3,340	0.60%
ATP: 12.32	Total		19	86	4	75	11,999	0.63%
Vengeance	T-7	Jax	3	4	0	3	286	1.05%
		Phx	5	10	6	12	1,122	1.07%
		Ral	4	5	0	3	367	0.82%
	Total		12	19	6	18	1,775	1.01%

 

Super Pets T-7 comps

 - Minions 2 - .169x (1.81m)

 - Sonic 2 - .136x (679k)

 - Bad Guys - 1.29x (1.49m)

 - Jungle Cruise - .484x (1.31m)

 - Paws of Fury - 2.08x (1.05m)

 

Bullet Train T-14 comps

 - Dune - .3x (1.53m)

 - No Time to Die (Thu) - .327x (1.7m)

 - F9 - .221x (1.57m)

 - Morbius - .278x (1.58m)

 

Very interesting that so many comps are already around the same number.  Wonder how that'll change over two weeks.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Bullet Train	T-13	Jax	7	51	9	39	9,463	0.41%
		Phx	6	29	13	79	6,197	1.27%
		Ral	8	27	7	37	3,710	1.00%
	Total		21	107	29	155	19,370	0.80%
Bullet Train (EA)	T-11	Jax	5	6	4	8	1,331	0.60%
		Phx	1	1	2	5	208	2.40%
		Ral	1	1	4	6	261	2.30%
	Total		7	8	10	19	1,800	1.06%
Easter Sunday	T-13	Jax	6	15	3	8	2,232	0.36%
		Phx	5	13	0	6	1,595	0.38%
		Ral	7	15	0	0	1,695	0.00%
	Total		18	43	3	14	5,522	0.25%
Super Pets	T-6	Jax	6	38	9	29	4,934	0.59%
		Phx	6	24	1	36	3,615	1.00%
		Ral	7	23	17	37	3,340	1.11%
	Total		19	85	27	102	11,889	0.86%
Vengeance	T-6	Jax	3	4	0	3	286	1.05%
		Phx	5	10	1	13	1,122	1.16%
		Ral	4	5	0	3	367	0.82%
	Total		12	19	1	19	1,775	1.07%

 

Super Pets T-6 comps

 - Minions 2 - missed

 - Sonic 2 - .169x (841k)

 - Bad Guys - 1.65x (1.89m)

 - Jungle Cruise - .593x (1.6m)

 - Paws of Fury - 2.55x (1.29m)

 

Bullet Train T-13 comps

 - Dune - missed

 - No Time to Die (Thu) - .378x (1.97m)

 - F9 - .242x (1.72m)

 - Morbius - .309x (1.76m)

[filmlover]

Long Range Box Office Forecast: First Outlooks for BEAST, Plus Updates on DC LEAGUE OF SUPER-PETS and Others

Read more: https://t.co/IFH1aGY3AU#BeastMovie #DCLeagueOfSuperPets #SuperPets #BulletTrain #EasterSundayMovie #BoxOffice pic.twitter.com/hHKT5nTs2L

— Boxoffice Pro (@BoxOffice) July 22, 2022

 

Sounds about right for Beast tbh.

Edited July 22, 2022 by filmlover

[CJohn]

9 minutes ago, filmlover said:

 

Sounds about right for Beast tbh.

Too high. This is a 5M opener in the making.

[Eric Duncan]

I...kinda think Beast has potential for high teens, maybe even 20M. There's zero competition apart from Bullet Train, and this offers some schlocky late summer fun in an empty marketplace. Crawl opened to 12M, so like 18M makes sense considering it has bigger star power.

[stripe]

4 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Too high. This is a 5M opener in the making.

 

I am more on the 10-15M OW train. This will benefit from the lack of new entries. Also, monster/survival movies usually do better than expected.

[keysersoze123]

Nope thursday Previews

MTC1 - 120210/486722 1960108.02 2765 shows

MTC2 - 77294/341541 994960.93 2316 shows

 

Walkups were not great. ~6m previews and mid 40s OW.

[Tinalera]

Nope

SW/Toronto Ontario T-0 (Last Friday count)

 

NOPE	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Fri	20	126	2466	28363	30829	0.0800

 

Comps (Friday)

 

x .3409 Lightyear (1.10 M Canada only, 20.11 Canada/US)

x .1997 Thor 4 (978 Thousand Canada only, 13.77 M Canada/US)

x 1.279 Lightyear (1.279M Canada only, 34 Million Canada/US)

 

Am pondering Bullet Train and Super Pets-Super Pets for Cineplex seeing only Thurs Listings, and Bullet Train I have thurs and Fri but.....like no movement at all-really no movement on either of them. Have to wonder if for Super Pets that Minions 2 grabbed majority of family, Paws of Fury grabbed what little was left, and now with a 3rd show so close might be a case of families just not having the money and/or August being big vacation holiday time might literally be away from theatres up here.

[filmlover]

Beast looks like perfect "dog days of summer" fodder. If it gets average reviews or better I can see it making some dollars during what's going to be a slow period otherwise.

[stripe]

Besides Bullet train, does any other August movie have the chance to be a hit? The only one I can think of is Beast.

 

The Invitation / Samaritan / Mack & Rita / Bodies Bodies Bodies / Easter Sunday / Dragon Ball are all 30M grossers at most, IMHO

[M37]

7 minutes ago, stripe said:

 

I am more on the 10-15M OW train. This will benefit from the lack of new entries. Also, monster/survival movies usually do better than expected.

Reminds me of Crawl ($12M) and Shallows ($17M) but with Lions as the hunter/monster, so that range sounds about right 

[filmlover]

Just now, stripe said:

Besides Bullet train, does any other August movie have the chance to be a hit? The only one I can think of is Beast.

 

The Invitation / Samaritan / Mack & Rita / Bodies Bodies Bodies / Easter Sunday / Dragon Ball are all 30M grossers at most, IMHO

Samaritan is a streaming release now.