The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[motionpic05]

I know trailer views doesn't connect to box office numbers

But, is 1.8 million viewers low for Halloween Ends (uploaded about 48 hours ago)?

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Nope Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [12:00pm - 12:30pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	160	18458	21313	2855	13.40%

 

Total Showings Added Since Last Night	5
Total Seats Added Since Last Night	389
Total Seats Sold Since Last Night	596

 

T-0 [Mid-Day] Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-0 [Mid-Day]	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS [12:15-12:45]	170.96		327	1670		0/111	15173/16843	9.92%		2352	121.39%		7.01m
LTBC [12:00-12:50]	45.01		1216	6343		0/247	27313/33656	18.85%		7712	37.02%		5.22m
NTTD [12:00-12:35]	92.42		303	3089		0/178	21629/24718	12.50%		3737	76.40%		5.73m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Nope's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-0 [Mid-Day] Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-0 [Mid-Day]	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9 [12:00-12:45]	79.06		491	3390		0/170	17331/20721	16.36%		4407	60.81%		5.88m
Nope (adj)	—		1215	2680		0/146	16422/19102	14.03%		—	—		—

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Nope (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:        665/6781  [9.81% sold]
Matinee:    228/1720  [13.26% | 7.99% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

A nice solid start to the day.  By now, both the F9 and LTBC comps will be of much less use than they once were due to having far more kids tickets sold, but might as well leave them in for pace purposes.  Didn't sample Halloween Kills at mid-day, so nothing to comment on there.  Now it's all down to the (rest of) the walk ups.

 

Nope Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:50pm - 4:20pm]

 

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	160	17491	21313	3822	17.93%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day

967

 

T-0 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS [5:40-6:10]	162.50		682	2352		0/111	14491/16843	13.96%		2352	162.50%		6.66m
LTBC [3:50-4:35]	49.56		1369	7712		0/249	26023/33735	22.86%		7712	49.56%		5.75m
NTTD [3:50-4:25]	102.27		648	3737		0/178	20981/24718	15.12%		3737	102.27%		6.34m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Nope's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-0 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9 [5:30-6:10]	80.62		1017	4407		0/161	15341/19748	22.32%		4407	80.62%		5.99m
Nope (adj)	—		2088	3553		0/146	15549/19102	18.60%		—	—		—

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Nope (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:         921/6781  [13.58% sold]
Matinee:    333/1720  [19.36% | 8.71% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

First off, l-o-l at the The Suicide Squad comp.   With that obligatory comment out of the way, very nice walkups.  For those curious, Nope still compares very favorably to Halloween Kills, comping in at 7.65m (1.56x).  Which, as I said, seems high.  But HK did under-perform and the number of other R-rated films I have comps for since we all restarted can literally be counted on two fingers (AQP II & TSS). 

 

Speaking of AQP II, that comes in at a much less favorable 5.62m, after various adjustments.  Then again, ticket price hikes since last year + theater landscape was still pretty unsettled when AQP II bowed, so, meh.

 

All in all, gonna split the difference between NTTD and TSS and go for 6.5m +/-.3m.

 

(As I quickly check other regionals, looks like Sacto might be over-performing, so who knows. Could be 6m-even if F9 is right. Don't nearly have enough R-rated comps in my book to really have a good feel as to which comps I should be using.  All I can say is: Did well here tonight)

Edited July 21, 2022 by Porthos

[motionpic05]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

Nope Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:50pm - 4:20pm]

 

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	160	17491	21313	3822	17.93%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Mid-Day

967

 

T-0 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS [5:40-6:10]	162.50		682	2352		0/111	14491/16843	13.96%		2352	162.50%		6.66m
LTBC [3:50-4:35]	49.56		1369	7712		0/249	26023/33735	22.86%		7712	49.56%		5.75m
NTTD [3:50-4:25]	102.27		648	3737		0/178	20981/24718	15.12%		3737	102.27%		6.34m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Nope's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-0 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9 [5:30-6:10]	80.62		1017	4407		0/161	15341/19748	22.32%		4407	80.62%		5.99m
Nope (adj)	—		2088	3553		0/146	15549/19102	18.60%		—	—		—

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Nope (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:         921/6781  [13.58% sold]
Matinee:    333/1720  [19.36% | 8.71% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

First off, l-o-l at the The Suicide Squad comp.   With that obligatory comment out of the way, very nice walkups.  For those curious, Nope still compares very favorably to Halloween Kills, comping in at 7.65m (1.56x).  Which, as I said, seems high.  But HK did under-perform and the number of other R-rated films I have comps for since we all restarted can literally be counted on two fingers (AQP II & TSS). 

 

Speaking of AQP II, that comes in at a much less favorable 5.62m, after various adjustments.  Then again, ticket price hikes since last year + theater landscape was still pretty unsettled when AQP II bowed, so, meh.

 

All in all, gonna split the difference between NTTD and TSS and go for 6.5m +/-.3m.

 

(As I quickly check other regionals, looks like Sacto might be over-performing, so who knows. Could be 6m even if F9 is right. Don't nearly have enough R-rated comps in my book to really have a good feel as to which comps I should be using.  All I can say is: Did well here tonight)

If this makes over US's opening weekend numbers this weekend, Jordan Peele will be able to make whatever movie he wants next.

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, motionpic05 said:

If this makes over US's opening weekend numbers this weekend, Jordan Peele will be able to make whatever movie he wants next.

 

That will take some doing given the much earlier start time for Nope previews (4pm vs 7pm), as that should push down the weekend internal multiplier.

Edited July 21, 2022 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

6.5 seems fine but eh final day in some of regions. Philly being that low is a shock.

[charlie Jatinder]

16 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Nope Harkins T-1 Day

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
168	47,156	2,916	6.18%	$38,367	$13.16

 

Comps

2.03x of Where the Crawdads Sing - $4.70M

2.38x of The Black Phone - $7.14M

0.43x of Minions 2 - $5M (adj for ATP)

 

Very strong jump today. Final should be around 10K, that should normally be around $6M but it has bit higher ATP and MTC 1 is quite bit high so could be mid 6s, may be even 7.

At 04:45 PM PST, 6,255/48,710 (173 showings) $77,868. Probably 9-9.5K. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

I always had Nope at 50s. 60 would be amazing if that somehow happens. 

 

This never really had the buzz of Us. Those trailers were amazing and it was a pure horror and his Get Out followup. Plus, SXSW reviews elevated the attention

[Grebacio]

32 minutes ago, motionpic05 said:

If this makes over US's opening weekend numbers this weekend, Jordan Peele will be able to make whatever movie he wants next.

It won't even reach 60M OW

[M37]

3 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

It won't even reach 60M OW

*$50M 

 

(probably)

[Nikostar]

The fact that this will open to close to 60 million amazing in its self. I thought people said the film had no buzz.

Edited July 22, 2022 by Nikostar

[ThomasNicole]

The movie costs only 68M 

 

Anything over 40M is great (i think it will be around 50M). 

 

What worries me is the legs, this have pretty much non-competition for weeks but early WOM doesn't looks promising. I know there always some people that drag down the grades for movies from minorities, but still, It starts dangerously low.

[Old Spice]

One thing I should have noted in my update is that a lot of folks in Salt Lake will be off work tomorrow as Pioneer Days, the state holiday, falls on the weekend this year. Will stick with my 6.2/51 but that may be inflating some of the numbers tonight.

[M37]

11 hours ago, M37 said:

 

A consensus starting to form?
 

Wednesday sales were strong, some big growth numbers ... but also not quite as strong as they could have been given context of previous days and review embargo being lifted. Seeing some whiffs of curve bending & flattening, which is not a positive indicator for a film that relies on those day-of sales/walk-ups, and where sales for Friday and beyond are not entirely encouraging either.

 

To put a visual to my prior comments about significant market variation, here's how tracking figures for Nope compare to both Halloween Kills and Venom 2 (priced with an ATP adjustment) - the width of that range at T-1 is really something

 

Fairly clear which markets are outliers here (hello Denver!), Megaplex as comped to V2, Sacto for HK, but still not a great consensus even among those in the middle. Still expecting a preview number in the $6M range, with $7M+ still in play given that's its summer and the earlier star time, but also won't be totally shocked if pace lags behind the high-volume comps today, and falls towards the low end of that range.

Final numbers: so much for possible convergence, lol what a mess

 

Good news is that Nope did in fact hold up against the high pace comps, beating them in growth in every single tracking sample through the final update ...

... but there are enough weaker final totals that one can't help but wonder if this is a title that's going to perform well in major markets, but be very soft otherwise, especially in relation to comps that had a less steep distribution.

 

The final average (with a 10% ATP adjustment) is right at $7M (as is the average if you exclude the high and low end outliers), but my gut says that's probably the high end of the range: Final preview estimate: $6.7M +/- $0.3M

[Legion Again]

I think 7*8 is pretty firmly on the optimistic side here. That’s would be about 21% down from Us nominal, 35% down admits. Quite plausible to instead miss 50M and be down 40%+ in admits.    
 

Stronger than I was expecting a few days ago, better than almost any nonIP horror can do right now, but not quite some Peele magic touch. 

[charlie Jatinder]

17 minutes ago, M37 said:

Final numbers: so much for possible convergence, lol what a mess

 

Denver HK isn't over $9M. 🤔 The actual comp is $5.77M, with +10% it will be $6.3M.

Edited July 22, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

I think over 40s is still a Peele magic touch. Yes, the brand is probably diminishing already but he's made 3 films, all original, and all opening over 33m. 2 over 40. That's pretty impressive

[titanic2187]

If it is anything between 6m to 6.5m, I will have a hard time to convince myself this will top $50m opening. It just too hard to jump high on the IM nowadays. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Anything over 30 to me is a WIN for Peele with that 2nd trailer.

[ThomasNicole]

6 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

If it is anything between 6m to 6.5m, I will have a hard time to convince myself this will top $50m opening. It just too hard to jump high on the IM nowadays. 

With 6.5M it should get there 

 

7.6x for an original movie is already frontloaded enough, even considering Peele brand 

 

With 6M tho probably 45-46M

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

At 04:45 PM PST, 6255/48710 (173 showings) $77,868. Probably 9-9.5K. 

At 07:35 PM PST, 8477/48710 (173 showings) $104,141

 

Added 2.2K in last 3 hours. 9.5k final possible. Quite normal day unlike some other places.