The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Eric Deetz]

Quorum Updates

Bros T-11: 27.54% Awareness, 4.55 Interest

The Good House T-11: 18.8%, 4.39

Bones and All T-65: 11.16%, 4.43

Devotion T-65: 19.78%, 4.96

Avatar: The Way of Water T-88: 64.49%, 6.33

I Wanna Dance with Somebody T-93: 23.2%, 4.89

The Flash T-277: 40.3%, 5.76

 

Don't Worry Darling T-4: 29.42% Awareness, 5.1 Interest

Comps (All Final): Stillwater w/ 36.44% Awareness & 5.73 Interest, Dear Evan Hansen 31.52% & 4.92, Dog w/ 51.92% & 5.88, Where the Crawdads Sing w/ 32.67% & 5.42

*Note Don't Worry Darling's Final metrics are subject to change over the next few days*

 

Final General Awareness: 5% chance of double-digit opening

General Interest: 67% chance of double digits, 50% over 20M

Original - Low Awareness: 12.5% chance over 5M

Original - Low Interest: 64% chance over 5M, 36% chance over 10M

[Old Spice]

That DWD Awareness score still below 30 just a few days out is surprising. Even if it gets a last second bump, it still suggests that all the furor on Twitter over who did what hasn't bled into the GA much at all.

[CJohn]

At this point I am expecting like 4 - 7 - 6 - 4 for OW. This is gonna be insanely frontloaded.

[AJG]

59 minutes ago, CJohn said:

At this point I am expecting like 4 - 7 - 6 - 4 for OW. This is gonna be insanely frontloaded.

 

Olivia Wilde ain't seen her kids for 3 years only to end up with a $21m OW. Tragic.

[filmlover]

Been looking at the sales for next weekend near me and Saturday so far really pales in comparison to Thursday/Friday. Imagine if this made over half the opening weekend from its first day lmao.

[Valonqar]

Lel this is going to do most of its business Thur-Friday by the look of it. Not saying it'll go under 20M OW but if interest in the movie doesn't crossover to non-Styles non-Flo non-gossip crowd, it might end up with 19.95M.

[GOGODanca]

23 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Been looking at the sales for next weekend near me and Saturday so far really pales in comparison to Thursday/Friday. Imagine if this made over half the opening weekend from its first day lmao.

At the locations im looking at the saturday presales are slightly less than 1/3 of friday's for DWD

[GOGODanca]

On 9/18/2022 at 10:17 AM, GOGODanca said:

Update 43 hours later: 190 tickets sold across the 34 showtimes (+17)

209 tickets sold across 35 showtimes (+19)

[snarkmachine]

I don’t want female directors to fail but I don’t want studios to keep putting Harry Styles in movies either so I’m kind of hoping DWD flops

Edited September 19, 2022 by snarkmachine

[el sid]

Don't Worry Darling, counted today at 11am EST for Thursday, September 22:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 74 (3 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 28 (1 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): no showtimes so far
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 17 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 108 (!) (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 110 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 175 (3 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 512.

Comps (both counted on Monday for Friday): Crawdads had 122 sold tickets

and The Lost City had 306 sold tickets.

 

Don't Worry Darling, counted today at 11am EST for Friday, September 23:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 96 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 120 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): no showtimes so far
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 13 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 72 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 10 (1 showtime)
LA (AMC Universal): 139 (3 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 450.

Comps (again both counted on Monday for Friday): Crawdads had 87 sold tickets

and The Lost City had 196 sold tickets.
Very good presales so far but let's see how big the jumps are and how frontloaded it is. At least the Thursday-Friday ratio isn't bad.

The re-release of Avatar had today for Friday 827 sold tickets in 7 theaters.
Comps: Jaws had on Monday for Friday 356 sold tickets,

NWH had on Tuesday = one day later 218 sold tickets

and E.T. had on Wednesday = two days later 422 sold tickets.
I would say that's a good number but the comps are too uneven to be more precise at the moment.

[Old Spice]

Salt Lake City suburbs are finally getting in on the act with DWD... strong sales past 18 hours, more than doubling the previous totals. Salt Lake City has actually slowed a bit, but it's already 230% of where Bullet Train ended and dead even with The Lost City final so it's in good shape. Not raising my prediction yet but the trend in the suburbs is making me more confident that 25+ is likely.

[abracadabra1998]

Twin Cities Thursday Previews:

 

Don't Worry Darling:

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 10 theaters	34	165	427	4619	9.24

 

Really great weekend jump (more than 1.5x since Friday). I don't know man, I get people feeling gloomy, but this isn't slowing down here so far lol. We'll see this week's jumps, those will be very telling.

[Eric Deetz]

On 9/18/2022 at 9:38 PM, The Eric King said:

Don't Worry Darling Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	37	1015	7050	14.40%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 42

 

Comp

0.866x of Dune T-4 (4.42M)

2.110x of The Lost City T-4 (6.86M)

0.915x of Morbius T-4 (5.22M)

Don't Worry Darling Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	43	1134	7856	14.43%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 119

 

Comp

0.865x of Dune T-3 (4.41M)

2.189x of The Lost City T-3 (7.11M)

0.886x of Morbius T-3 (5.05M)

[Eric Deetz]

Avatar Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Monday Before Release (Fri)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	53	402	10459	3.84%

 

Comp

2.379x of E.T. Monday Before Release (1.16M)

1.260x of Rogue One Monday Before Release (630K)

1.358x of Jaws Monday Before Release (1.18M)

1.327x of No Way Home Monday Before Release (2.33M)

[GOGODanca]

Tuesday morning update for Friday presales from Houston Area AMC's

 

Avatar Re-Release: 358 tickets sold scross 52 showtimes (8 theaters) + 1 sell out which i am skeptical about but will keep checking

 

DWD: 221 tickets sold across 57 showtimes (9 theaters)

 

DWD for Thursday: 277 tickets sold across 39 showtimes(10 theaters)

Edited September 20, 2022 by GOGODanca

[Tinalera]

Just an FYI-havent posted since T-14 for Smile in SW/Toronto Ontario because....well the currently only 6 of the theatres I cover have presales, that wouldn't be an issue except between friday and today a whopping 3 extra seats have been sold-basically its been flat. We will see if Wed opens up more theatres and seats, but yes in my neck of the woods right now its sales are pretty much not moving at all.

[interiorgatordecorator]

https://deadline.com/2022/09/harry-styles-dont-worry-darling-weekend-box-office-1235122999/

 

Is the 7-10 million they predict for the avatar re-release in line with what tracking suggests? 

 

[el sid]

Don't Worry Darling, counted today at 11am EST for Thursday, September 22:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 79 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 33 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): no showtimes so far
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 17 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 134 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 139 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 187 (3 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 589.

Up 15% since yesterday.
Comps (both counted on Wednesday for Thursday = one day left for DWD): Crawdads had 212 sold tickets

and The Lost City had 520 sold tickets.

 

Don't Worry Darling, counted today at 11am EST for Friday, September 23:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 107 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 150 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): no showtimes so far
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 15 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 101 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 15 (1 showtime)
LA (AMC Universal): 185 (3 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 573.

Up quite good 27% since yesterday.
Comps (again both counted on Wednesday for Friday): Crawdads had 185 sold tickets

and The Lost City had 519 sold tickets.

The jumps till today were better than what I expected (and which is similar to other reports here). Maybe the reviews won't hurt that much.

The Re-Release of Avatar had today for Friday 956 sold tickets in 7 theaters.
Up ok (for a Tuesday jump) 15.5% since yesterday.
Comps (both counted on Tuesday for Friday): Jaws had 389 sold tickets

and NWH had 218 sold tickets (but with the 3$ Saturday).

And E.T. had on Wednesday = one day later 422 sold tickets.

Not bad at all.

 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

32 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

https://deadline.com/2022/09/harry-styles-dont-worry-darling-weekend-box-office-1235122999/

 

Is the 7-10 million they predict for the avatar re-release in line with what tracking suggests? 

 

That's frankly the most it was ever going to do in the streaming/digital consumption era. A double digit number of any kind would be a win in this day and age IMO.

[WittyUsername]

A $10 million OW for a re-release of a movie from 2009 would be insane in today’s landscape.